Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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407
FXUS63 KIND 270431
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1231 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

High pressure along the east coast will keep us under a warm
southerly flow through the middle of next week.  An upper trough
over the the western U.S. will move to the central plains by
Saturday and across the Great Lakes Sunday.  This in combination
with a humid air mass will keep us with low daily thunderstorm
chances through the weekend.

High pressure will bring dry conditions Monday and Tuesday and
another system will bring another round of thunderstorms around the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 949 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

UPDATE...
Current radar mosaic is showing some light returns across the
southwestern counties...so light rain showers cannot be ruled out
over that area. Otherwise, the lull in activity continues this
evening and should continue until after midnight when a
disturbance approaches the Mid Mississippi Valley. Radar is
already more active across western and southern Illinois at this
time. As far as temps, increased overnight lows by a degree to
match current trends. Projected lows are expected to be in the mid
to upper 60s. Updated grids have been sent.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The rapid refresh model indicates little if any re-development
through 08Z and with the air mass somewhat stabilized by the
earlier convection will keep everything dry until late tonight.

After that will bring 30 Percent POPS into western sections by 20
percent POPS elsewhere towards morning as a weak upper disturbance
moves into the middle Mississippi valley by Friday.

Models and MOS data indicates low temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s which is what they were last night and seems reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Models move a series of weak waves from the plains to the western great lakes
with the strongest one moving into the great lakes by Sunday.
Given a humid airmass and some uncertainty in timing will mention 30
percent POPS west Friday and 20 percent elsewhere and 20 percent POPS all
areas Friday night.

There could be slightly better rain chances over the weekend mainly
Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  However confidence of exact timing is
low as models show better chances west of us Saturday and more to our
east Sunday.   For now will lean towards 40 percent POPS most areas
Saturday and Sunday afternoon and continue 20 percent POPS most areas
Friday and Saturday night.

Highs will be in the middle 80s Friday and lower to middle 80s over
the weekend with a little more clouds.  Lows will be in the upper 60s
both Friday and Saturday night.  Raised temperatures slightly FRiday

Raised temperatures slightly Friday as there should be more sun then.
Otherwise...stayed close to a MOS blend of temperatures most other periods.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

Guidance suggests a pattern becoming a bit more progressive next
week.

There is some indication that a break in the convective activity may
greet the start of the new week as ridging builds across the area.
Will go dry late Sunday night through Tuesday. Would not be shocked
to see an isolated storm pop up in the heat of the afternoon but
cannot justify pops at this point.

Temperatures look to remain seasonably warm with highs in the low
80s and lows in the 60s. Blended initialization handled things well.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 270600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Mid and high cloud should continue through the overnight. With the
rainfall today providing some soil moisture and not much sunshine
afterward could see some patchy MVFR fog develop at the outlying
sites late, but don`t expect anything worse than that given the
cloud cover and winds not completely dropping off. Upstream radar
mosaic shows showers and thunderstorms over western Illinois and
Kentucky that may hold together to impact the sites around 10-12z,
but still a lot of uncertainty on whether or not they will again
split to the north and south of the sites leaving them dry. Too much
uncertainty regarding any thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon to
include at this time also. Forecast soundings indicate some wind
gust potential during the afternoon with gusts of 16 to 20 kts out
of 180-200. Those gusts should subside by around sunset.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...CP



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