Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190656
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OHIO AND KENTUCKY WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST.

IN THE LONG TERM A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND
A LITTLE COOLER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

0200Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SATELLITE AROUND 19Z SHOWED SCATTERED CU ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST. SLIGHTLY DRIER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  A FEW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS OUR EAST HALF. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.

IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES AS THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND +6 CELSIUS AND OVERALL TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT
A MOS BLEND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID
60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND MID
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN  SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXCEPT FOR THE NAM...MOST MODELS DON`T BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO
OUR REGION PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY AND SOME ENSEMBLES BRING LITTLE PRIOR
TO MONDAY EVENING.  WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND ALL AREAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  GFS INDICATES CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

LONG TERM APPEARS TO BE A QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL AS UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA. A QUICKLY MOVING SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH A DAY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN
THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION HANDLED MOST VARIABLES RELATIVELY WELL AND
FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/09Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

WX NIL...THUS EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY AT UPDATE
TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 191800Z.

SURFACE WINDS AROUND 020 DEGREES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
060-080 DEGREES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD

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