Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 061910
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
210 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AND REMAIN THERE ON INTO NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE...A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE WILL FINALLY TAKE PLACE AS THE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. MOVES EAST
AND OUR UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID BOOST TEMPS A DEGREE OR
SO BASED ON HOW MODELS HAVE RECENTLY HANDLED TEMPS ON RELATIVELY
CLEAR DAYS UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
STILL EXPECTED...WITH SOME 30 DEGREE READINGS SNEAKING INTO
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME LATER
TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY -10 TO -12 DEGREES WILL WARM
TO -2 TO -4 DEGREES CELSIUS LATE TODAY PER MODELS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 20S LATER TODAY. WENT CLOSE
TO A MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A
FEW DEGREES FROM LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER IOWA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR AREA
LATER TODAY...WHILE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND A ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE EVEN MORE ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.  A VERY WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

WENT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE PERIOD AS OUR LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WEST SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND WEST AND LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS SHOULD KEEP GULF
AIR WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER SNOW MELT MAY CAUSE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUDINESS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER A
MOS BLEND GIVEN THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUN AND OUR AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODERATE.  OTHERWISE WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES ON LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 150 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT ISN/T
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY EARLY
WARM TEMPERATURES FOR DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN 60 BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 06/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1228 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MID LEVELS AS DISTURBANCES
PASS ALOFT...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS...INCREASING
TO 12 TO 15 KTS TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MRD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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