Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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446 FXUS64 KOHX 091709 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1209 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Cooler weather in place and it`s a little less humid today. Temps are in the upper 60s to lower 70s right now. Another cold front is located upstream and stretches along the OH river westward across southern IL. This boundary will be moving through tonight with partial clearing expected. The upper levels will be a touch on the active side through Saturday. A series of weak shortwaves will work southward across our area and may bring some light shower activity mainly across our east. Latest nbm numbers however, indicate that pops will be on the low side. Also, as good news, any additional rainfall will be just a tenth of an inch at best and mainly over few hundredths of an inch. the eastern half of the mid state. Temperature wise, its looking cooler than it has been. Lows over the next few days will be in the 50s with highs in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 In the extended forecast, we will kick off the period with some upper ridging. The ridge axis will quickly move east, however, and give way to our next weather system. This system will take the form of an open wave. The associated frontal system will offer little n-s extension and instabilities will be weak. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms will return beginning Monday night, but the activity looks like a general risk. Otherwise, rainfall amounts look like maybe a half inch. After a brief break on Wednesday, look for more showers and tstms to return. This system looks more potent with a surface low tracking northeastward across the upper midwest. The southwestward frontal extension lacks organization, but 60 knots at 850 mb could end up being problematic if instability levels increase with time. indicated thus far. As for now, no day 7 or day 8 spc inclusion. Rainfall totals at this point look like up to one inch or so. For the extended temps, values looking close to normal for mid May with lows upper 50s to lower 60s and highs mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Finally, the prolonged active weather event that has spanned the past 24 hours is winding down. With the exception of some lingering light showers at KCSV, the departing convection is not impacting any of our terminals. We do expect a brief period of MVFR ceilings later this morning as the surface boundary comes through, but we`ll return to VFR afterwards. Winds will be somewhat gusty today as they shift around to the NW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 59 72 53 76 / 0 10 0 10 Clarksville 56 70 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 54 67 45 68 / 0 30 10 20 Columbia 58 72 50 76 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 56 67 47 71 / 0 20 10 20 Jamestown 54 66 45 69 / 0 30 10 20 Lawrenceburg 59 72 50 76 / 10 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 57 72 50 76 / 0 10 0 10 Waverly 56 71 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Rose