Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 222340
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft...at 500 hpa...A 504 dam low northwest of Point Barrow will
move across the northern interior and persist into the weekend. A
505 dam low over Bristol bay will drop to the south tonight and
move into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday. Ridging will build back
over the Bering sea and west coast on Friday.

Surface...980 mb low over the Chukchi sea will track near
Barrow and weaken to 991 mb by Thursday evening. A strong
968 mb low near Nunivak island will quickly track south across
the Aleutians Thursday morning. Another low pressure system will
move into the Western Bering on Saturday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blizzard to near Blizzard
conditions continue over the Western Brooks Range and Northwest
Arctic Coast. Winds will slowly diminish through the evening. The
low will track near barrow by Thursday afternoon and continue
to weaken and then track across the Brooks range. Snow showers
will persist for the north slope around the low center through
friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Blizzard conditions primarily
north of the Seward Peninsula this morning will diminish through
the day. However, a rapidly moving low in the Bering Sea will move
to Nunivak Island this evening spreading Blizzard conditions to
the lower Yukon Delta by this afternoon as winds ramp up with
gusts to 70 mph along the coast. The remainder of the Delta will
have winds gusting to around 45 mph. Heavy snowfall can be
expected in the lower Yukon Delta as well with 6 to 12 inches of
snow.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow will taper off to
flurries across the Tanana valley as the shortwave moves east
this evening. Cloudy and cold through through the remainder
of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Have cancelled the last
of the coastal flood products. Winds and waves will continue to
diminish through this evening. Models still bringing a storm to
the Bering Strait Saturday that has the potential to produce high
surf along the southern Seward Peninsula, and the Chukchi Sea
Coast north of Cape Espenberg.

Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...Better agreement in the guidance
for the mid and extended periods with the latest solutions. Expect
high pressure building over the Arctic, and Central and Eastern
Interior with cooling temperatures. Lows on the weekend falling
into the 20s below or colder, then warming a bit to start the
week. No new snow expected in the interior through the middle of
next week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ212.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

JK NOV 17



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