Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 292203
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 PM AKDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM AS WELL AS THE MID TERM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LARGE AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLUTION.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...A 524 DAM LOW 100 NM NORTH OF BARROW CONTINUES TO
ANCHOR THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PRUDHOE BAY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE ALCAN
BORDER. A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND BUILDS NORTH AND WEST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MID
WEEK AND OVER SIBERIA BY WEEKS END. A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS
UP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND
RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO ALASKA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
SIBERIA. DEEP AND COLD TROUGH SETTLES OVER ALASKA NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SURFACE A 996 MB LOW APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 1005 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW FORMS OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AS A 1005 MB LOW AND
BE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH OF ICY CAPE WILL DIMINISH TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS TO BUILD IN
THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ICY CAPE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WINDS ALONG THE SEWARD PENINSULA WEST OF CAPE ESPENBERG AND
KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 207...209...201 AND WILL BE IN EFFECT TOMORROW
FOR ZONE 202.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE
NORTH SLOPE AND ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. SNOW TOTALS
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MAY REACH OVER 1 FOOT BY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER NO PARTICULAR EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
OR WARNING LEVELS. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL CAPTURE MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER NORTHERN ALASKA SO ONLY SCATTERED SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SHOULD RECEIVE MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HOISTED FOR ZONES 207...209...201 AND ZONE
202. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
NORTH OF ICY CAPE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ209.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14


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