Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 251352
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
452 AM AKST Sun Feb 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Models...25/00Z solutions continue trending to better agreement
in the midrange. Broad area of lower heights that extends southwest
over the state from the Canadian Archipelago will be giving way to
a high amplitude ridge that will extend from the NE Pacific over
the state and high Arctic Wednesday night through at least Fri
morning. Solutions continue to agree on a cooling trend that
looks like it will extend through the week. Solutions are now
showing a pretty snowy pattern over the southern interior for most
of the week, so will use a blend with a lean toward the SREF
probabilities to produce at least likely wording in the Fairbanks
area Monday morning through Wednesday. Precipitation amounts will
be a bit tricky, so will go with a blend for now and try to pin it
down better with the next couple model runs.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad area of lower heights persists over
the Canadian Archipelago, extending west over the Arctic and
southwest over mainland Alaska. Low that was high in the Arctic
Yesterday has moved to 300 nm north of Demarcations Point at 475
dam. A strong shortwave that was over 80N yesterday has moved
south and will be moving over the Arctic Coast this morning, with
a second weaker shortwave moving over the coast this afternoon. By
Monday morning the low will move over western Banks Island at 474
dam and another strong shortwave will move over the Central
Arctic. As the shortwave swings south a 476 dam low will develop
200 nm northwest of Point Barrow, then swing just offshore along
the Eastern Arctic Coast through Tuesday afternoon before merging
with the low over Banks Island. The shortwave associated with the
low will move over the Chukchi Sea Monday evening and the
Northwest Arctic Coast early Tuesday morning. To the south Ridging
extends north over Kodiak Island, then northwest over the
Chukotsk Peninsula this morning. The ridging will shear off over
the Bering Strait and move southeast to the Southeast panhandle
tonight. A 509 dam low moved into the Western Bering Sea overnight
and will move east across the Bering Sea to Cape Romanzof late
this evening, continuing east and merging with the broad area of
low pressure that will encompass the state by Monday morning. A
535 dam high over the New Siberian Islands will move southeast
over Chukotka and merge with ridging that will be swinging north
over the Western Bering Sea Tuesday morning. The building high
amplitude ridge continues to rotate east to lie over the Eastern
Bering Sea by Wednesday morning, extending north over the Siberian
Arctic. The lower heights over the Canadian Archipelago weaken
Wednesday allowing the ridge to slowly slide east, and by Thursday
morning it will lie from the north Pacific over Bristol Bay and
the Northwest Arctic Coast to high in the Arctic. Friday morning
it will extend north over Cook Inlet to Nuiqsut and north. A long
wave trough will move over the Eastern Bering Sea Friday as a
pseudo blocking pattern develops. At 850 hpa...-10 isotherm
remains generally south of the forecast area, but as a low moves
over the lower Yukon Delta tonight and Alaska Range Monday it will
push over the southern fringe of the forecast area, otherwise the
airmass will be in a slow cooling trend through the week.

Surface...A broad area of low pressure extends west across the
Arctic with a 974 mb low over the Eastern Beaufort Sea. A weather
front will move over the Arctic Coast this morning, then drag
east. A 978 mb low has moved into the Western Bering Sea this
morning and will move east to the Lower Yukon Delta early Monday
morning, then continue east over the Alaska Range Monday before
diving south to the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. A 980 mb low in the
high Arctic will move into the Western Arctic tonight, and to the
300 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Monday morning, and moves over
the Northwest Arctic Coast Monday afternoon at 968 mb. Weak
ridging between the ranges will persist, but be pushed north over
the south slopes of the Brooks range on Monday. As the low moves
over the Northwest Arctic Coast a cold front will move south
across the Chukchi Sea and over the West Coast late Monday night,
into the Western Interior Tuesday morning, then east across the
Central and Eastern Interior Tuesday night as it falls apart. High
pressure will move over the Eastern Bering Sea and Chukotsk
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon, then over the Western Interior by
Wednesday morning.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blizzard conditions have developed
on the Northwest Coast so issued a Blizzard warning through noon.
Advisory continues for Central Coast and winds will be diminishing
later this morning, and Blizzard Warnings continue for the
Eastern Arctic Coast. Winds will diminish across the area today,
but expect Blizzard conditions to redevelop on Monday over the
Northwest Arctic Coast and possibly the Western Brooks Range. A
lot will depend on the track the low takes as it moves to the
Coast. Cold front moving to the coast will bring some more snow
with accumulations less than 2 inches. Strong south winds
developing in the Brooks Range passes Monday night and Tuesday
will bring another round of poor visibility in blowing snow and
drifting snow that will impact travel in the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...A rapidly moving low will push
across the area lower Yukon Delta with 3 to 7 inches of snow
possible around Russian Mission and Anvik. 2 to 4 inches for
areas south of Kaltag and the Upper Kuskokwim River Valley with
lesser amounts to the north, and no snow expected on the Seward
Peninsula. Snow is expected along the northern Chukchi Sea Coast
as well as a weather front associated with a low moving to the
Northwest Arctic Coast moves south. Generally west to northwest
winds from the Seward Peninsula north today at 10 to 20 mph with
stronger winds to 30 mph north of Red Dog. Winds to the south will
be swinging around to east and northeast as the low moves to the
area at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures slightly warmer today south of
Nome, otherwise steady or cooling through the remainder of the
week.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some breaks in the clouds today,
but increasing clouds tonight as the next system moves into the
area. Some lingering flurries east of Fairbanks today with little
accumulation. Snow spreading into areas from the west around
midnight tonight with snow mainly south of Bettles Monday and
Tuesday. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches. The heaviest snow will
fall over the White and Ray Mountains, Upper Chena and Salcha
River Basins, and the Middle Tanana Valley, including Fairbanks.
Winds across the area will be generally light through Monday, with
some stronger winds developing on the hills Monday night and
Tuesday that may create some travel issues in the Nenana Hills and
some of the Elliott, Steese, and Dalton Highway summits.
Temperatures south of Fairbanks a few degrees warmer today,
otherwise cooling temperatures across the area through the week.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A 964 mb low will move
into the western Bering Sea Wednesday night with strong south
winds developing over the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait.
With diminished ice coverage in the area there is potential for
High Surf in the area Thursday.

&&

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Solutions show good agreement
on the ridge moving across the state, but they diverge
significantly on what will happen over the area as it moves over
Canada. Look like best bet will be to go back to a blend of the
Ensemble means.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235.

&&

$$

SDB FEB 18


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