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000
FXAK69 PAFG 081157
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
257 AM AKST SAT MAR 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN THE NEAR TERM. GOOD
INITIALIZATION WITH THE 00Z RUN. WILL USE A MEAN TO ELIMINATE THE
NOISE BETWEEN THE MODELS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES. SHORT WAVE OVER
THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AS 504 DAM CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH OVER VENETIE THIS EVENING THEN DRIFTS OVER
LIVENGOOD TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS SUNDAY
EVENING...THEN MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AND WEST
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH 520 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850
HPA...COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES
SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE BY MONDAY
MORNING...THEN RETREATS NORTH AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE. 974MB
LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 100NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT
THIS MORNING THEN PINBALL WEST TO OVER COOK INLET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 985MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF ADAK BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK
ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK
INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE ALASKA RANGE MID WEEK.

ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS AND FLURRIES STILL CAUSING HAVOC. 08/0718Z
MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND ALSO JUST
OFF THE COAST MOVING SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES NEAR
THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES.
WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS.

INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES
DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE
IS FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

SDB MAR 14