Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 311342
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
442 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY OUT TO AROUND 120 HOURS.
SHORT TERM IS VERY GOOD WITH STRONG CONCENSUS ON MAJOR FEATURES
AND POSITIONS OVER THE FIRST 60 HOURS. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND. MODELS DIFFER A
LITTLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THEY HAVE FLIP
FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE PUSHING A WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY ON
AGAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT
SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT
TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND WITH A 561 DAM HIGH
OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY AT 557 DAM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFTS SOUTH OVER
COOK INLET MONDAY MORNING AT 551 DAM. 502 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE RAPIDLY EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SHARPEN UP
AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT EXTENDS FROM
AROUND 75N TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND WEST COAST.

SURFACE...1054MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WITH RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST TO A 1046MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND
A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE STATE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TILT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE TO LIE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY
MONDAY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 1040MB CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON
TERRITORY AND A 1032MB CENTER OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A 1004MB
LOW NEAR 76N 140W WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING TO BANKS ISLAND
BY LATE EVENING. A 1004MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST
ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND SLOWLY DRAG ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED A BIT BUT
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST
UNTIL LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT IS STALL DRAGGING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SOME SNOWFALL
OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST. STILL SEEING
SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED WEST OF BARTER ISLAND SO WILL
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 206.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EVERYTHING HAS SETTLED DOWN AND
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AROUND UNTIL MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY.

4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD
SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO FLIP FLOP SO IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY CHANGE AGAIN.

SATELLITE...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST IS EASILY SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
AT 31/0852Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY
PRODUCTS FROM 31/1030Z. THE STRATUS OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE
BERING STRAIT CAN ALSO BE CLEARLY SEEN ON BOTH PRODUCTS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 15



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