Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 182215

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
115 PM AKST Wed Jan 18 2017

Bitter cold continues over the interior. Fairbanks dropped to 51
below this morning which is the first 50 below or colder
temperature recorded at the Airport since Jan 29th 2012. Many
locations over the interior dropped to 50 below or colder with
several sites colder than 55 below. Salcha dropped to 59 below
this morning. Another cold night tonight and another cold day
tomorrow before clouds and light snow move into the central and
eastern interior with moderating temperatures.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread is minimal
in the short range but increases dramatically in both the mid
range and the extended range leading to lower than normal forecast
confidence in the long range.

Aloft at 500 hpa, the deep and very cold long wave trough over the
central interior will slowly retrograde to the west through Friday
as a ridge builds into the Yukon and a weak shortwave moves north
along the ALCAN border tonight and Thursday. This shortwave will
bring warming temperatures aloft as well as clouds and light snow
or flurries to the eastern interior and over the central interior
to the east of Fairbanks. A low pressure trough extending from a
low over Bristol Bay will bring an increase in clouds and light
snow over the lower Kuskokwim Valley Thursday night and into the
southern portion of the central interior Friday. 850 mb
temperatures over the central and eastern interior will rise from
current values of 25 to 30 below to 15 to 20 below Friday and
warms to 15 below Saturday. 850 mb temperatures continue to rise
to around 10 below by Monday.

On the surface a 1005 mb high pressure over the interior will
strengthen to around 1010 mb and move southeast into the southwest
Yukon through Friday. An inverted trough remains over the west
coast. A 980 mb low moves northeast out of the northeast Gulf of
Alaska near Yakutat into the southern Yukon Thursday and then
moves east Friday. A 974 mb low in the south central Bering Sea
will move east tonight and Thursday and will be located over
Bristol Bay as a 984 mb low Friday. A trough of low pressures will
extend northeast into the Kuskokwim Valley Thursday night and will
extend further into the southern interior Friday. Clouds and light
snow will move northeast along the trough and will moderate the
brutal cold temperatures currently found in these areas.


Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210.


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