140
FXAK69 PAFG 152359
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
359 PM AKDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Southwest flow aloft is bringing significant rainfall
to the West Coast and Western Interior this afternoon. A ridge
building from the south will cause rain to slowly taper off
through tonight. Most areas west of Tanana will see 0.5-1.5"
of total rainfall through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts
near Nome. The Yukon Flats will continue to be breezy this
afternoon with gusts to 25 mph. Temperatures rebound to near
normal on Wednesday south of the Brooks Range and remain above
normal across the North Slope.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- West southwest winds will gust to 25 mph across the Yukon Flats
  this afternoon.

- Temperatures mainly in the 50s and 60s on Tuesday before warming
  back into the 70s through the weekend.

- Thunderstorm activity looks to be near zero until Friday, when
  isolated thunderstorms are likely across the Central and Eastern
  Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Rainfall forecast is on track with most areas seeing between
  0.3" and 1.0" so far as of 3 PM Tuesday

- Most areas west of Tanana will see 0.5-1.5" of total rainfall
  through Wednesday with the heaviest amounts near Nome.

- Increasing south winds across St. Lawrence Island and the West
  Coast through Tuesday night before subsiding on Wednesday. Gusts
  up to 40 mph are possible through the Bering Strait and across
  the Norton Sound on Tuesday through this evening.

- Onshore winds 20 to 25 mph south of the Bering Strait have
  prompted High Surf Advisories for elevated water levels of 3 to
  4 feet above the normal high tide line. Minor beach erosion is
  expected through Wednesday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- South-southwesterly offshore winds and above normal temperatures
  in the 60s or even low 70s continue through midweek.

- Onshore flow and low stratus/fog return Thursday.

- Smoky conditions across the central and eastern Brooks Range
  have improved and visibility is expected to remain good through
  the week.

- East winds 20 to 25 mph along the Arctic Coast on Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Southwest flow north of a
ridge of high pressure is bringing rainfall to the west coast and
the western Interior. The ridge of high pressure will quickly
build north over the state and dry conditions out across the area
no later than Wednesday afternoon. The ridge is transient though
and skies look to only partially clear before a low aloft moves
into southwest Alaska, bringing southeast flow and some showers on
Thursday. Flow becomes southerly on Friday with a shortwave moving
through the flow during the afternoon, which will likely spark a
return of afternoon thunderstorms over the central and eastern
Interior. Weak ridging persists, with temperatures near to
slightly above normal across Interior Alaska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally low fire weather concerns across most of the state with
the warmest/driest conditions across the upper Yukon Flats and
eastern Tanana Valley. With that said, expecting cloudy and cooler
conditions through Wednesday, with RH remaining above 30 percent.
Thursday a ridge will be prominent across the state, bringing
warm and dry weather back to the interior by the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...By Saturday, southwest flow begins
to develop across northern Alaska with rainfall looking very
likely for the West Coast and Western Interior. A persistent ridge
over the North Pacific will likely nudge into the central and
eastern Interior, so it will likely take a couple of fronts moving
to the west coast to break down the ridge before precipitation
gets into the central and Eastern Interior. Persistent ridging
over the North Slope will keep temperatures well above normal up
there.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...High Surf Advisory in
effect for the Bering Strait south to Chevak including Norton
Sound through Wednesday morning. Minor coastal erosion expected
with water levels of 3 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line.
Highest water levels Tuesday afternoon and overnight into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Surf Advisory for AKZ821.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ822-824-825.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Chriest/Park(Fire)