Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 271342
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
942 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 942 AM EDT...STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE DRY MUCH OF THE TIME. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHORT BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BY A FEW DEGREES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTHWEST WITH A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED
VORT MAXES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A
FRESH DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID 20S SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SKY SHOULD
CLEAR OUT BUT IT WILL BE A COLD BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST
INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FA BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE NW FLOW
BRINGING LIGHT PCPN EVENTS.  IT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND
SOME OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE LEAVE MARCH...AND ENTER APRIL.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS S/SE ACROSS
SE QUEBEC AND INTO UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE MORNING.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WILL FOCUS SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY
ON...AND THEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  IT WILL BECOME BRISK AND COLD.  HIGHS
ON MON WILL BE IN THE MID AND U40S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U30S TO L40S
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS AT H850 WILL FALL TO -10C TO -12C
IN THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT.  LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW L30S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND A
FEW TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN DACKS REGION.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWNSTREAM...AND SOME
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH WILL NUDGE IN.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES.  SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY PRIOR
TO SUNSET.  OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
M30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID AND U40S
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORT-WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OR NEAR THE FCST
AREA.  THE GFS HAS IT MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND NY...AND BRINGING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE
ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH BY 06Z/WED MOVING JUST OVER NYC.
THERE IS DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE ECMWF...AS
THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS AT NIGHT...AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COOLING
QUICKLY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE COLD LOW AND MID-LEVEL
THICKNESSES.  THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE
MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS.  APRIL LOOKS TO
START WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE...AND IT IS NOT A JOKE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO L30S FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SARATOGA AREA SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER TEENS TO L20S
NORTH.  HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS WHERE MID AND U30S
ARE LIKELY.  A FEW 50F READING MAY OCCUR IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE WED INTO
WED NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.  AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AS THE SFC WAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE
REGION.  TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD THAT A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT THIS MORNING WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN INTO LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE REGION WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH SOME LINGERING
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KGFL AND KPSF UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM ALOFT...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL
REMAIN UPSTREAM AND BKN-OVC SKIES IN THE 3.5-5 KFT AGL RANGE WILL
BE COMMON AFTER 18Z...EXCEPT AT  SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH
KGFL...AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO MVFR
LEVELS AROUND 21Z...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED. AS THIS DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES CIGS MAY LOWER BACK TO HIGH MVFR LEVELS AT KALB AND
KPSF BTWN 04Z-06Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS THIS
MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM N TO NW AT 5-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE N TO NW AT 7 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE -SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC
-SHSN/-SHRA.
MONDAY LATE NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT ALSO A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RAINFALL AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOWFALL WHICH FELL ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY RANGED FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH.
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS RESULTED FROM THIS RAINFALL DESPITE SOME
SNOWMELT...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THUS THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ADDING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE SNOWPACK WITH
SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...11/JPV
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.