Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 231536
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1036 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move through the region this morning with
above normal temperatures. A low pressure system and its cold
front will bring periods of rain to eastern New York and western
New England late this morning into the afternoon. In the wake
of the cold front tonight, colder more seasonable air will
return with brisk conditions for the mid week. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible north and west of the Capital
Region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...Winter Weather Advisory continues until noon for Warren/N.
Washington and Windham Cos...

...Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday morning for
all eastern NY/western New England outside of N.
Herkimer/Hamilton Cos...

As of 1035 AM EST, still pockets of freezing rain ongoing
across Warren CO/Northern Washington CO (NY) and Windham CO
(VT). Have extended pre-existing Winter Weather Advisory another
couple of hours until noon for these areas, which are currently
hovering right around the freezing mark. Ice accretion of up to
one quarter of an inch could occur in these areas before temps
rise above freezing. Even after rising above freezing, some
ground surfaces will likely remain icy due to the ice accretion
from this morning.

Ice may accrete in portions of Windham County on
trees/powerlines, which could allow for some isolated/scattered
power outages.

Elsewhere, solid shield of moderate to locally heavy rain
continues across the area, although rain is becoming more
showery to the south. We expect the steady rain to gradually
become more showery from SW to NE through 1 PM.

Previous discussion follows...
A lull in the pcpn is likely in the early to mid pm, but then a
secondary cold front will begin to approach the forecast area
in the late afternoon with a better surge of cold advection and
some rain to snow showers.

Max temps will be on the balmy side today with 40s to lower 50s
for highs, as a few mid 50s are possible in the mid-Hudson
Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. However, these highs will
likely occur mainly after the rain tapers to showers, and in
fact, may not occur until early to mid afternoon. The winds
will be breezy from the south to southeast, and then shift to
southwest in the late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The Flood Watch will continue into the night time period for ice
jams or a combo of ice jams, snow melt, and runoff. However, we
will not have 2 consecutive days of an avg temp of 42F or
greater for more widespread break up ice jam potential issues
like what occurred on 12-13 JAN. Total rainfall will be in the
half an inch to one and a half inch range.

Tonight...Much colder air will rush back into the forecast area
as a secondary cold front moves across the region. The rain
showers will transition to snow showers. West to northwest
orographic enhancement off the western spine of the Adirondacks
and southern Greens may yield 1-3 inches of snowfall with some
locally higher amounts. Some lake moisture will be tapped for
the snow showers to spread into the Mohawk Valley/Northern
Catskills and perhaps even the Capital Region for some coatings
to a half an inch or so. The cold air advection will allow temps
to fall back into the 20s with some teens over the southern
Dacks. The winds will increase from the west to northwest at
10-20+ mph with some gusts in the 30-45 mph range especially
funneling down the Capital Region/Mohawk Valley into the western
New England higher terrain and northern Catskills especially
after midnight.

Wednesday will feature brisk and cold conditions with snow
showers and flurries ending especially north and west of the
Capital Region with few light snow accums. The latest BUFKIT
momentum transfer profiles indicate some 30-35 kt gusts are
possible if we mix to 2-3 kft AGL. The winds will diminish in
the afternoon as the cyclone accelerates northeast into the
Canadian Maritimes. High temps may be achieved prior to
noontime, and may steady or slight fall thereafter with highs in
the 20s to lower 30s with a few mid 30s from ALY south down the
Hudson River Valley.

Wednesday night...The mid and upper trough axis moves across the
region with flurries/isolated snow showers west of the Hudson
River Valley ending. It will be cold with lows in the single
digits to teens with some below zero readings over the
Adirondacks Park.

Thu-Thu night will feature below normal temps with arctic high
building in from southeast Ontario and Great Lakes Region. Temps
will run about 5 degrees below normal for late JAN with still
northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph due to the chilly cyclonic flow
on the back side of the trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The period starts out Friday with a strong near-1040 mb area of high
pressure over the region, gradually shifting eastward to the
southern New England coast late in the day. This will result in dry
conditions and near normal temperatures. Dry conditions will prevail
Friday night into Saturday, as upper level heights rise across the
region, while the surface high slowly moves eastward into the western
Atlantic. A return southwest flow will set up around the periphery
of the departing anticyclone, which will allow for a moderating
trend. Temps forecast to be around 10-15 degrees above normal on
Saturday.

Models then start to diverge late Saturday through early next week,
as the ECMWF and CMC indicate an amplifying pattern with strong
upper level ridging along the east coast persisting through the
weekend, while the GFS is much less amplified and has a northern
stream cold front pushing through. Will side with the more amplified
pattern for now, which has shown more consistency among the ECMWF
and CMC the past few runs.

The resulting forecast is increasing chances for rain Saturday night
into Sunday, as a frontal boundary sets up across our area with a
mild southerly flow aloft, while a deepening upper level trough
pushes east from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley region. A wave of
low pressure is then forecast to develop along the front and track
northeastward right through eastern New York and western New England
Sunday night into Monday. This would result in possible prolonged
and potentially heavy rainfall event, with rain changing to snow on
the back side west of the Hudson Valley. This is still 6-7 days
away, but we will continue to monitor the evolution of this system
as it could cause hydrologic issues associated with heavy rainfall
and/or wintry precip on the back side of cyclone into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain, moderate to locally heavy at times, will develop by around
12Z across the region in advance of a cold front approaching
from the west. The steady moderate/heavy rain will last through
the rest of the morning into the early afternoon. A few rumbles
of thunder will also be possible. Expect flying conditions to
be IFR/LIFR during this time. After the cold front passage,
gradual improvement to MVFR/VFR with scattered showers then
expected late this afternoon into this evening.

Low-level wind shear will continue be an issue this morning
into early this afternoon, as a strong southerly jet moves
overhead. Wind speeds at 2000 ft AGL will be around 40-50 kt
during this time. Will continue to mention the LLWS at all
terminals. The jet should push east of the region by mid
afternoon.

Surface winds will be east-southeast around 10 kt or less, then
becoming southwest around 10 kt in wake of the cold front
passage later this. There will be some occasional gusts around
20 kt during the evening. Wind speeds will increase further
after midnight to 10-15 kt with gusts around 25 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings in Warren County, as some lingering
issues continue due to existing ice jams which froze in place.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal into today. The
mildest night and day will be today with highs mainly in the
40s to lower 50s with a much colder and more seasonable airmass
returning tonight and through the remainder of the week.

A low pressure system and its cold front will bring a moderate
to locally heavy rainfall to the area today.  QPF amounts are
forecast at this time to range from half an inch to an inch and
a half. The highest amounts are expected north and east of
Albany and the Capital Region, extending into the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT.

The rain is expected to cause rises on rivers and streams, which
may move and dislodge ice and may cause flooding near ice jams.
Mostly within bank rises are expected based on the latest NERFC
forecasts and the MMEFS. However, the rising river/stream
levels from runoff could be enough to dislodge ice jams which
have been frozen in place over the past 10 days. Therefore, a
Flood Watch has been issued, mainly to heighten awareness that
ice jams frozen in place could dislodge and/or cause new
flooding in some areas. Poor drainage flooding and ponding of
water is also likely due to melting snow and enhanced rainfall
rates.

Colder and drier weather is expected from the mid week into
early Saturday. However, another slow moving front may bring
more rainfall late in the weekend.

Our latest Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook (ESFALY) was
issued this past Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NYZ038>043-047>054-
     058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ042-043-
     083.
MA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for VTZ013>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VTZ014-015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/Wasula



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