Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 230552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO
FROSTY LEVELS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON FROM ABOUT
SARATOGA SPRINGS NORTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE
FROM CHILLY LEVELS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL TURN WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
     FREEZING WARNINGS/FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SAT...

AS OF 140 AM EDT...A WEAK VORT MAX IN THE W/NW FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CHILLY UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE CAPITAL
REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY NORTHWARD. WE EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO THIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM FOR THE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO M30S ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. THE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AIR MASS FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A CHILLY START...LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING (ALTHOUGH NOT AS
GOOD AS TODAY) SHOULD NEVERTHELESS BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S
IN VALLEY LOCATION...55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN AS START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
ONCE AGAIN A BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH
AS TODAY. SUNSHINE...MIXING WITH JUST A FEW CU...WILL BE AMPLE.
H850 TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE
0C.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL START CLEAR WITH DIMINISHING WIND
AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S.
HOWEVER...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EVEN
A LITTLE SOUTH BREEZE BY MORNING...SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON TEMPERATURES.
A LITTLE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO EVEN MENTION IN OUR HWO AS LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET UNDER WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INITIALLY AT THE H850 LEVEL (BACK ABOUT TO AROUND +10C)
AND WITH SOME MORE SUNSHINE...THESE MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MIX DOWNWARD
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL OF OUR REGION SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE WARM FRONT...REALLY DELINEATING SOME MOIST AIR TO
OUR SOUTH VERSUS THE DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR NORTH...WILL
APPROACH OUR REGION. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...AND THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD 45-50
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF MIGHT FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE AS THE WARM FRONT
"WASHES" OUT OVER OUR REGION. WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING AND REALLY NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF INSTABILITY ...IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW
(BUT STILL THERE). WE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT FROM ALBANY SOUTH
AND EAST...LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 80 IN THE
VALLEYS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...70S MOST OTHER PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONSIST OF HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

AS WE GO FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
POLEWARD AND BY TUESDAY OUR ENTIRE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
LATEST 22/12Z GLOBAL MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOWS AS WE START
THE WORK WEEK...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CO-EXIST WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS COAST LINE BY MID WEEK. THIS
WILL SET UP A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO POLEWARD ALL THE WAY UP TO OUR REGION ALONG
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A 250 HPA JET WILL SITUATED SW TO NE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 22/12Z DATA ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
PERTURBATIONS WILL RIDE ALONG THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO LARGE EASTERN CONUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES. POPS AT THIS TIME WILL
RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 50 AS WE GO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO
HIGHLIGHT THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE POSITION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEST OF OUR REGION WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AND LOWER POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
UPSTREAM WILL HELP TO MOVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD. FORECAST
CHANGES WILL BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

WITH AN ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL H850 AND H925 TEMPS
REACHING BETWEEN 14C-17C AND 18C TO 22C RESPECTIVELY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO MID AND UPPER 80S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. A FEW AREAS
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY MAY REACH 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z/SUN.

THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/SAT
AT KGFL AND KPSF...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY
CLEAR DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
FROM THE WEST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AROUND 02Z-04Z/SAT...WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 30-35 KT POSSIBLE AT KALB...AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE.
THEREAFTER...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO LESS THAN 10
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT DUE TO
DAYTIME MIXING. SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT COULD OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MEMORIAL DAY TO WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...
     WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...WE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

SINCE WE ARE GREENED UP THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE CURRENT
VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 200...SO NOT QUITE THERE. HOWEVER...THE SPECIAL
STATEMENT WAS REQUEST SINCE IT IS A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A LOT OF COOKOUTS.

MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A PARTIAL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH RH 75-90 PERCENT
AND THE FORMATION OF DEW OR EVEN FROST. AGAIN THOUGH THE RH WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO LOW LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPERATURES THAT COULD SET NEW RECORD LOWS
FOR MAY 22.

SPECIFICALLY...

AT ALBANY...WE ARE FORECATING A LOW OF 35 WHICH WOULD BREAK THE
CURRENT RECORD LOW IS 36 SET BACK IN 1967.

AT GLENS FALLS...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 30 WHICH WOULD TIE
THE RECORD LOW OF 30 SET BACK IN 2002.

AT POUGHKEEPSIE...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 36. THE EXISTING
RECORD LOW IS 34 SET BACK 1963.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064>066.
MA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV/JPV
CLIMATE...STAFF


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