Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 261444
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1044 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front that passed by to our south on Saturday will
return as a warm front today. Due to chilly temperatures in
place across the region, areas of freezing rain are possible.
Temperatures will slowly moderate through tonight as warmer air
continues to filter in from the southwest. The next surge of
moisture arrives through Monday with more rainfall expected to
be followed by another storm system on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
 Freezing Rain Advisory remains in effect for much of the area
today...

As of 1035 AM EDT, Band of rain mixed with freezing rain/UP in
spots continues to shift east/northeast this morning. Only have
seen a few reports of frozen precipitation across the southern
portion of the forecast area. Over the Greater Capital District
and points north, there is still a lot of dry air to overcome
as this precip lifts northeastward. Temperatures are hovering
near the freezing mark with below freezing wet-bulb profiles.
So the potential for freezing rain is still very much there,
especially across the terrain locations. For points south, low
level dry air is working its way into the area so the rest of
the day should remain mostly dry.

In terms of the forecast, have adjusted pops to reflect radar
trends while trying to maintain likely pops across the advisory
areas. Also freshened up the hourly temps and sky cover. Sent
updates to NDFD and web servers.

Prev Disc...
As of 630 AM EDT...A cooler and drier air mass has
advected into the region overnight where several areas are near
or below freezing with wet bulb profiles mainly below freezing.
Regional upstream radar mosaic reveals an increasing band of
precipitation extending from western Lake Ontario into the
southern tier of NY and along the NJ/NY state border. This is
along a warm front that will slowly lift north across the region
today. However, isentropic lift will be rather light with wind
magnitudes less than ideal for enhanced lift. In fact, per the
RAP/HRRR, reflectivity forecasts were less than organized across
the region. As the warmer air filters in aloft, colder
temperatures near the surface all suggest a period of mainly
freezing rain with the greatest threat across the terrain. After
extensive coordination, we decided to change headlines to the
greatest impact hazard for freezing rain. Ice accumulations will
generally be a trace to up too one tenth of inch across the
Dacks and portions of the southern Greens (which is mainly
tonight). There will be a period of little to no precipitation
this evening as mid level dry slot behind the departing mid
level short wave ridge tracks to the east. Then a more
pronounced isentropic lift arrives overnight into Monday
morning. Low level jet magnitudes increase to greater than 30kts
which continues the warm advection regime. However, for
portions of the southern Greens, the colder air may linger a bit
longer as low level ageostrophic flow remains easterly as we
will continue with the advisory at this time. For the remainder
of the region, we will watch those temperatures closely and
either issue SPS`s or expand briefly the WSW.

Temperatures should moderate into the 30s and not much change
expected into tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday-Monday night...Model suite continues to support a
warming pattern reducing any additional threat for freezing
rain. Next wave approaches and cross most of the region Monday
with periods of rain, drizzle and some fog through the short
term. Temperatures moderate into the 40s with just a few degrees
cooler at night but remaining above freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended period will start out unsettled, but a brief break in
the active weather is expected for the middle to latter portion of
the week.

The models still show some subtle differences regarding the expected
frontal passage for Tuesday into Tuesday night.  While all models
and ensembles show at least a chance for rain showers on Tuesday,
the GFS and many members of the GEFS show a wave of low pressure
along the front moving across the area for during the day.  This
could allow for a more concentrated area of showers and even a
steady rain for during the day.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GGEM show
this wave a little further south over the mid-Atlantic, so while
some showers are still possible thanks to the frontal passage, any
steadier rainfall would remain south of the area.  With rainfall
still expected due to at least the front, will go with high chc to
likely pops across the area.  Ahead of the boundary, temps should
warm into the upper 40s to upper 50s, despite cloud cover thanks to
a southerly flow and mild temps aloft.

Some lingering rain showers are possible for Tuesday night and these
showers could even end as some snow showers for the highest
elevations of the southern Green Mts and Adirondacks for late
Tuesday night as colder air works into the area.  Otherwise, rain
showers will taper off as the front heads eastward and temps fall
into the 30s. Any snow accumulation would be limited to just a
coating and only for the highest elevations.

Behind the front, somewhat cooler weather will return for Wednesday.
There still may be a rain or snow shower across the high terrain
thanks to the cooler temps aloft and the nearby upper level trough,
otherwise it should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Temps will
be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most areas, although downsloping
and breaks of sunshine could aid the Capital Region and mid-Hudson
Valley to reach the lower to middle 50s.

Dry weather will be in place for Wednesday night through Thursday
night with high pressure over the area.  Temps will be close or just
slightly below seasonal normals with mainly clear skies.

Another storm system could impact the region between Friday and
Saturday.   Some models show a system approaching from the west with
a chance for rain and snow, while others keep this whole system
south of the region. For now, will go with a blend of guidance,
which is basically chc pops and temps near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At this time, VFR conditions across the TAF sites as low level
dry air continues to extends its influences into the region. So
VFR conditions will then persist at all terminals until late
morning or early afternoon, as light rain and/or some frozen
precip develops (likely freezing rain). Still much uncertainty
exists with regards to precip types initially, with sleet and/or
freezing rain possible, especially at KGFL/KPSF. All sites
should change to plain rain by mid afternoon Sunday. This would
point toward MVFR and possibly IFR conditions later this
afternoon into tonight.

Winds tonight will be northeast around 5 KT, becoming southeast
around 5-10 kt on Sunday. Possible LLWS later tonight into the
Berkshires as we will place this into the TAF at this time for
KPSF.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...DZ.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The snow pack, while melting, remains in place across much of
eastern New York and western New England. The weather pattern
will remain unsettled late this weekend into early next week
with occasional rain and wintry mixed precipitation. Drier
weather is expected for the mid-week period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An unsettled weather pattern will impact the hydro service area
the next several days.

There is a potential for several rounds of precipitation into
early next week. Some of the precipitation will fall as a mix of
rain and freezing rain and transition to mainly rain for Monday
and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected for the mid-week period.

The latest MMEFS forecast indicates a few locations going into
action stage by early next week, but confidence is not high for
potential of any flooding at this time. Some snow melt is likely
the next few days.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ032-038>041-047-048-051-058-063-083.
     Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ033-
     042-082.
MA...None.
VT...Freezing Rain Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Monday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JVM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...BGM/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula


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