Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 160524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
124 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...MAINLY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE E/NE
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH SOME
SPRINKLES EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BAND FURTHER E AND S
INTO SOUTHERN VT...THE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
90...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS INTO THE
SARATOGA/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VT...WHERE SOME POCKETS
OF MODERATE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. RAIN MAY BE A BIT MORE
INTERMITTENT AND LIGHTER SLIGHTLY FURTHER S AND E INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

EVEN FURTHER S...INTO THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION
AND NW CT...LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ANOTHER 1-3
HOURS. EVEN AFTER 4 AM...ONLY A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...AS A SOLID CLOUD DECK PREVAILS. AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...WE EXPECT SOME WET BULB COOLING TO DROP TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS...WITH MINS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST CLOSEST TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR
MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN OCNL MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. KALB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS BUT MAINTAIN VFR
CONDS WHILE KPOU WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AND SKC CONDS THIS EVENING. FOG
WILL BE DEVELOPING AT KGFL AFT 05Z WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIGS
AND VSBYS TO IFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/FRUGIS/IAA
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS/IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...11/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA






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