Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 222030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH GRADUALLY MORE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE
AREA OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHS
OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S...AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.50 INCHES.  WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SOME ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS. NO THUNDER HAS BEEN OCCURRING
DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY THANKS TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER IN PLACE.

THE LATEST REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER
CENTRAL NY. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RATHER SLOW MOVING TODAY DUE TO
THE LIGHT FLOW DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY. THE LATEST 18Z
3KM HRRR MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR...AND SHOWS A
DECREASING TREND IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS
TOWARDS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO MOVE AWAY...AND
DIURNAL INFLUENCES BEGAN TO WANE...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...SO
HAVE DECREASED POPS FROM LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE TO JUST SLIGHT TO
LOW CHC FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ALSO ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT AS WELL WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LINGERING RAIN
SHOWER ON SATURDAY /MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN OR HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS/...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRYING OUT. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK FOR
SOME SUN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO
REACH THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S...AND DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. SKIES LOOK
TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY START TO THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL THROUGH MID-
WEEK...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEREAFTER.  HIGH
TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM MAINLY THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S WILL BE
THE RULE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT...THINGS COOL DOWN TO HIGHS FROM THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 50S OR
LOWER 60 UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS FROM A SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED DRIZZLE/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT KALB THROUGH 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT KALB AS
WELL FROM 18Z TO 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE/MIST THAT MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF AFTER 09Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
ALLOWS VFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE TAF SITES BY 15Z
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 18Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A
MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TOMORROW...THE RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME SUNSHINE. THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A RAIN SHOWER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL LED TO FLOODING LAST NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO BE
HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING. THE
GROUND REMAINS RATHER SATURATED IN THE SACANDAGA AND SARATOGA
REGION AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVEN/T BEEN
OVERLY EXCESSIVE.

THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TONIGHT...BUT RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR
THE MOST PART. THE ONLY WAY ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING WOULD OCCUR
WOULD BE IF A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER HAPPENED TO SIT OVER A LOCATION
THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LAST EVENING/NIGHT...OTHERWISE NO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING.

THE ONLY RIVER POINT THAT IS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE IS THE
CANAJOHARIE CREEK AT CANAJOHARIE. THE RIVER HAS CRESTED JUST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER THIS MORNING/S ADDITIONAL BOUT OF
RAIN...AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO RECEDE. THE RECESSION MAY BE
SLOWED IF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLS OVER THE BASIN...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE TO FALL.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DRYING TREND WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
GROUND TO DRY OUT...AND RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS TO SLOWLY RECEDE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.