Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 280008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OR
LEAST WEAKENED INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS. WITH CONTINUING RISING HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT AND ANY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES LIKELY RIDING NORTH ALONG
THE RIDGE (RIDGE ROLLERS) WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS UNDER 15 PERCENT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER.

OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT. WE STILL THINK PATCHY OR
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWER TO MID 60S MOST OTHER PLACES.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO IFR FOG/CIGS
AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT ONLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU AND KALB.

WE BEGIN TEMPOS FOR IFR FOG BY 05Z AT KGFL AND 04Z AT KPSF BASED ON
WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT (PERSISTENCE). THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND WE ARE FORECASTING VALUES AOB
THESE VALUES AT ALL THE TAFS.

THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z...AND BE COMPLETELY GONE BY
BEFORE 13Z. AFTER THAT WE LOOK TO HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY WARM VFR DAY
WITH SCT CU BASES IN THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE (OCCASIONALLY GOING
BROKEN AT KPSF AND KGFL).

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAINLY KGFL AND KSPF
THAT WILL BE TIED INTO A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAFS WAS LOW ENOUGH (UNDER 25
PERCENT) SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS (NOT EVEN VCSH) AT THIS POINT.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS
AT KGFL...VARIABLE TO WESTERLY 5-10KTS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES.


OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...



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