Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 031054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
654 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BRINGING
RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST.  THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MORE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 654 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE E/NE FROM THE
DELMARVA REGION THIS MORNING. OVER RUNNING RAINFALL/SHOWERS NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...AND AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS MADE IT
AS FAR NORTH AS ALBANY...AND THE NRN BERKSHIRES. THE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE BASED ON THE LATEST NAM/GFS/HRRR AS THE STEADIEST LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...ERN CATSKILLS...AND
BERKSHIRES SOUTH AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS WERE USED IN THESE SOUTHERN
AREAS THIS MORNING.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE RAIN SHOULD DWINDLE TO ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AS THE WAVE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND LAKE GEORGE REGION. TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE NRN TIER WITH HIGHS IN THE M50S TO
L60S. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST EXPECT 50S WITH SOME U40S OVER THE
BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
UPSTREAM WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTH AND WEST BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS.

WEDNESDAY...THE GRAY...COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL PIVOT INTO
UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS...INITIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THEN PUSHING EASTWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S
WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...THE CUTOFF LOW MEANDERS S/SE INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE SHOWERS WED
NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH FOR A TIME...BUT THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AROUND THE CUTOFF SHOULD FOCUS DIURNALLY TRIGGER ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THERE IS A CHC LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND
IN THE VALLEYS MAY STAY DRY DEPENDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE H500
CUTOFF IS SITUATED. THE ECMWF FAVORS THIS SCENARIO. THE CUTOFF
DOES SHIFT CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TO
CLOSE THE WEEK. TEMPS STILL LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LOWS IN THE U30S TO M40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER AND POPS DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF CUT-OFF LOWS THIS FAR OUT. THERE
IS AT LEAST ENOUGH EVIDENCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO GIVE
MUCH OF OUR REGION AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS SOME
STEADIER RAIN DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. SO
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.

SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY...AS MODEL TRENDS SHOWING
THE CUT-OFF WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BEING KICKED OUT BY A DIGGING
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SOME
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD...AS FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY BUT
MAINLY WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE MILDER WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD REACH 70 DEGREES BY LATE SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
RATHER PROGRESSIVE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM...BUT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING DUE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING IT WILL BE BREEZY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA WILL BRING
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE AND RAIN NORTHWARD TO JUST ABOUT KALB
THIS MORNING. SO EXPECTING STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR KPOU AND KPSF...WITH KALB
RIGHT ON THE EDGE. RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KGFL. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA.

FLYING CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR...LIKELY
DETERIORATING TO PREVAILING IFR BY AROUND 08Z OR 09Z...EXCEPT AT
KGFL WHERE ONLY OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS CIGS RISE TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT IFR CIGS COULD LINGER
AT KPSF MUCH OF THE DAY. VSBYS SHOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FROM MID
MORNING ON.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE BERKSHIRES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS THE NEXT 5
DAYS ENDING ON SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR INTO NW CT. MINIMAL RISES ARE
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



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