Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 110529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...ALONG WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILL VALUES ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY
EVENING FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE.

AS OF 1215 AM EST...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS
BEEN DRIFTING FROM CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...ACROSS SOUTHERN
HAMILTON AND INTO SARATOGA...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND BENNINGTON
AND WINDHAM COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL WAS FALLING ACROSS SPARSELY
POPULATED AREAS.

THE REMAINDER OF REGION INDICATED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE IT WAS VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING CLOSE TO 30 IN THE TRI-CITY AREAS...
20S MOST OTHER AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS AS IF A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHOULD AS WELL
ALTHOUGH AS THE FLOW WEAKENS...THEY SHOULD SHRINK AND BE CONFINED
TO MOSTLY THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 1-4 INCHES ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MAYBE EVEN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN GREENS. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE A
COATING TO AN INCH IN PLACES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...20-25
IN VALLEY AREAS. A WEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROF LIKE FEATURE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BELOW NORMAL GIVEN PROGGED 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -20C
AND -24C. THINKING HIGHS MAINLY TEENS MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 20S
HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM NEAR 0F ADIRONDACK ZONES TO LOWER TEENS NEAR KPOU. A
STRONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN FAVORABLE LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION AND
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 21Z FRIDAY AND 09Z
SATURDAY. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS LIKELY IN MOST PLACES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER LAKE
EFFECT HIGHLIGHT MAYBE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WILL
FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. EXPECTING LOWS BY SATURDAY
MORNING BELOW ZERO DACKS TO LOWER TEENS HUDSON VALLEY WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 10F IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ON SATURDAY.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. LOWS TEMPS WILL FALL TO -5 TO
-15 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS...AND -10 TO -20 OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THESE TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ALL
NIGHT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE LITTLE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. ALONG WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS -20 TO -30
DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS AND -30 TO -50 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGER IN THE HWO STATEMENT.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY MODIFY BY MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT FULL LATITUDE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDS. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...SO JUST MENTIONED HIGH CHC POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS TO ABOVE OC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN KGFL AND KALB
RIGHT NOW. RADAR AND HIRES MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTS THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE AND/OR AFFECT AREAS WEST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHSN AT ANY
TERMINAL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BE VFR
WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 4500-6000 FT. WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND
5-10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FOR DURING DAYTIME MIXING ON
THURSDAY AND BECOME GUSTY...ESP AT KALB...WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...AND CLOUDS LOOK TO START TO DISSIPATE...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. WILL ALLOW CIGS TO
SCT OUT FOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR THURS NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY
ONE LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ032-033-038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...


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