Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 290531
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies. Winds will be 10-20kts out of the west and southwest
for the KAMA TAF period. KGUY and KDHT will have a more northerly
wind shift after 19Z as a cold front starts to work slowly
southward. Few clouds expected at KDHT with scattered to broken
clouds at KGUY mainly after 21z.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Noteworthy items include the decrease in PoPs over the short-to-
midterm periods, thunderstorm chances through the extended, and warm
temperatures Thursday (especially the Palo Duro Canyon).

The pattern aloft will be zonal to northwesterly for a good portion
of this forecast package. The zonal flow with dry atmospheric
conditions (especially lower levels) will make precipitation chances
limited through at least Thursday night. Our first/best chance for
precipitation appears to be Friday night as of now. Decent
instability returns to the area on Friday along with the passage of
a cold front that morning. Overall, chances still look minimal
Friday/Friday night. In fact, through the extended there is a lot of
discrepancies between the models with regards to consistency for
precipitation (coverage/timing) across the Panhandles, so overall
confidence is low for precipitation chances in this forecast
package. Confidence is even lower for severe weather chances.
Looking at the near-term, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
are going to be possible Friday/Friday night. Beyond this time
period, its too hard to say with any confidence for severe weather
chances. Percentage-wise, Saturday night is forecast to have the
best chance for precipitation at this time.

On Thursday, a Heat Advisory may be needed for at least the Palo
Duro Canyon area. Models which have been verifying well lately are
suggestion temperatures at or around 105 in several places.
Currently I have 108 for the canyon. Beyond Thursday, both Friday
and Saturday will be our "coolest" days in the 80s/90s, but
thereafter temperatures will easily be in the 90s across the
Panhandles.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  89  61  86  66 /   0  10  10  20  40
Beaver OK                  67  87  61  90  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
Boise City OK              62  80  57  86  63 /  10  10  10  10  20
Borger TX                  69  90  63  89  69 /   5  10  10  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              65  91  61  89  66 /   0  10  10  20  30
Canyon TX                  63  90  62  87  66 /   0  10  10  20  40
Clarendon TX               68  92  65  87  67 /   0  10  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 64  86  59  87  64 /   5  10  10  20  30
Guymon OK                  66  85  60  89  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
Hereford TX                64  92  61  87  65 /   0  10  10  20  40
Lipscomb TX                68  89  62  90  68 /  10  10  20  10  30
Pampa TX                   68  90  62  87  67 /   5  10  20  20  30
Shamrock TX                70  93  66  89  68 /   5  10  20  20  30
Wellington TX              73  95  68  90  70 /   0  10  20  20  30

&&

$$

89/24



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