Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 262234 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
534 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A FAST MOVING BUT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN COME AROUND MORE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH RE-DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE GIVEN
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE REGION AS WE ARE ON THE WESTERN
END OF FLAT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOLER ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH AS A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF THE NEXT WAVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
GIVEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS INDICATED BY THE GFS FROM MID/UPPER WAVE AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR PRECIPITATION AS WELL. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...A MUCH MORE
POSITIVELY TILTED AND FASTER WAVE WOULD FOCUS THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ASCENT EAST OF THE AREA AND RESULT IN A
COMPARATIVELY DRIER FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COLLABORATIVE INCLUSION OF VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IN THE FAR EAST TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16





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