Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 292042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
342 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Showers and possible thunder highlight the short term forecast.

A shortwave tracking along the international border could spark a
few showers/thunderstorms. Limited CAPE available this afternoon
across northwest and north central ND. Strong shear does exist
over northwest ND and is expected to propagate eastward into
higher CAPE environment. Farther south, warm mid level is limiting
the CAPE. Latest iterations of the HRRR continue to produce
isolated shower activity across central ND this afternoon into the
early evening. Will continue our mention of isolated shower
activity. With only minimal CAPE, will hold off on a mention of
thunder, but a thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out.

Mesoscale models are not indicating significant fog coverage
tonight. With a little stronger gradient and less low level
moisture than the past few nights, will leave out the mention of
fog for now. However, some patchy fog can`t be ruled out.

Upper level ridging ahead of a strong trough should keep most of
us warm and dry on Thursday, although increasing mid and high
level clouds may temper our forecast highs just a bit. The far
west central and northwest could see a shower or two as weak
northern stream shortwave energy encroaches upon a surface trough
over eastern Montana and far western ND.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A storm system early next week, followed by a warm-up highlight
the extended forecast.

Thursday night through Saturday a weak surface trough and weak
upper level shortwave trough track slowly east across the forecast
area. This will keep minimal precipitation chances in the
forecast, mainly across the west and north. Upper level flow
becomes more zonal on Sunday and a quick moving shortwave trough
tracking along the International border will bring another chance
of showers along the northern tier zones. With each of these
waves, there will be a minimal threat of mixed precipitation
during the late night and early morning hours. QPF amounts are
also minimal with these two systems.

Early next week, a stronger upper trough tracks from the
California coast, across the central rockies and into the cental
plains. Again, the majority of the energy within this split trough
tracks well to our south. However, there does appear to be more
energy associated with the northern stream portion of the trough.
Thus a higher potential for more significant QPF across western
and central ND. There is quite a bit of model spread at this time
with the GFS bringing the system farther north than the EC/GEM.
There is also a wide envelope of solutions within the GEFS
ensemble run. We`ll need to continue to monitor this feature but
for now will utilize a model blend solution which still brings
high chance to likely pops across most of the forecast area early
next week. After this system moves through, there is better model
consensus in building a strong upper ridge over the western and
central U.S. bringing a warm-up to the forecast area by mid to
late in the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Fog has dissipated across the forecast area just in time for the
18 UTC TAF issuance. Expect VFR conditions today with ceilings
generally 4-6 thousand feet. Did include a VCSH at KBIS and KMOT
this afternoon. Southerly flow does shift southwest at KDIK and
KISN this afternoon, but then shift back south tonight. South to
southeast flow at remaining TAF sites. Could be some patchy fog
again Thursday morning but with an increasing surface gradient
will hold off on adding fog in any particular TAF at this time.


Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Warm weather over the next few days will continue to encourage
snowmelt and excessive runoff. However, not enough rain is
expected to significantly add to the high water. We will need to
monitor the system early next week as this would bring a better
chance to significantly add to the high water. Although, by this
time we may be nearing the end of the snowmelt.




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