Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 061016
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
416 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Winds remain light this
morning as high pressure remains across the northwestern Gulf.
Winds will turn to the southwest today as the surface high moves
east and low pressure moves south through Texas. The southwest
wind will help push daytime highs into the low to mid 80s. A
modest cold push is intruding into Texas already this morning, and
should reach Deep South Texas during the day Wednesday. The
boundary may be just enough to spark a few showers along it during
the day Wednesday, but any showers will be minimal at best.
cooler air will move into the northern portions of the region,
with highs Wednesday varying between the upper 60s for the
ranchlands to the upper 70s for the lower valley.


.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Everything still on
track for the modified arctic front expected through the CWA
Wednesday night/Thu am. Models have slowed down the forward
momentum every so slighlty with the EC slowing down the most,
lagging behind the GFS by about 3 hours. Will not bite on this
slow down yet with the dense cold air, already below zero over the
northern Plains, likely to pick up some speed as pressure rises of
3 to 5mb are progged over Central Texas after midnight and
increase after sunrise Thursday. High temperatures to occur at
midnight then steadily fall through the day Thursday and do not
show any recovery until Saturday once the surface winds turn back
to the Southeast. 1040mb high drops down along the TX/OK border
with the pressure gradient strengthening significantly Thursday.
Models are suggesting 30 to 40kt winds at around 3000 feet. Some
of these winds to mix to surface especially near and off the
coast where warmer temperatures reside. Will be issuing a Gale
watch for the offshore waters and will continue to monitor for a
wind advisory along the coastal counties Thursday. Rain chances
remain on track as well with moisture values and content gradually
deepening through Friday morning. Rain chances to tapper off
Friday afternoon but do not end all together with slight chances
hanging  on along the lower coast and offshore through Friday
night as low level winds begin to veer as a weak coastal trough
develops.

Mid level flow becomes zonal across the nation and surface ridge
head east next weekend which will result in a warming trend. rain
chances will be limited along and east of the coast where the
higher moisture riding the southerly winds set up. After the
weekend, models begin to diverge with the GFS now indicating
another cold front moving through the region Monday with shortwave
trough showing up in the 500mb flow. ECMWF is more subtle and the
Canadian weaker with the front. With these differences quite
evident within temperatures guidance will hold off on drastic
changes at this time and will trend more slowly with the next cool
down.

&&

.MARINE:(Now through Wednesday): High pressure will be the main
feature for the marine zones through the next 36 hours. This will
keep winds light, starting from the southwest today before turning
southeast tonight into Wednesday. Winds will remain 10 knots or
lower, so seas will remain generally around 2 feet. The close
proximity of the coastal surface low to the lower TX coastline
this evening and tonight will maintain a strong PGF across the
Gulf Waters throughout tonight into Monday morning. The surface
low will then start to shift out to the northeast later in the day
on Monday and Monday night. This will allow the PGF to relax
finally which will cause the Gulf winds and seas to calm down
nicely. However will extend the SCA through midday Monday as some
large swells may linger into the morning hours. Also depending on
the timing of the northeast movement of the surface low the west
to northwest flow on the backside of the surface low may also
persist near SCA levels.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Gale conditions are becoming
more evident with higher confidence as the modified arctic front
is still on tap for a early Thursday morning passage. A gale watch
will be issued from 6am Thursday to midnight Friday as strong
high pressure builds along the coast. Winds at 3000 feet are
forecast to reach 40 knots mid to late morning Thursday will mix
to the warmer surface waters producing wind gust exceeding gales.
A Gale Watch for the Laguna will not be issued at this time with
confidence not as high with slightly cooler waters developing from
this current front but can not rule out some gusts right at
gales. Seas to respond rapidly possibly exceeding 12 feet by or
shortly after Noon. Adverse conditions to persist into Friday
night before some slightly improvement Saturday as winds turn to
the southeast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  64  78  57 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          81  64  79  56 /   0   0  10  30
HARLINGEN            82  61  79  54 /   0   0  20  30
MCALLEN              84  62  77  53 /   0   0  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  57  74  50 /   0   0  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  69  77  59 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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