Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 010000 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
700 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...A relatively flat pressure gradient will prevail over
the area through 24 hours, with light winds and some, but not
enough cloud cover to generate other than VFR Tafs. A few hours
of early morning fog may develop Thursday in some sections,
including Harlingen, due to light winds and ground moisture, which
could drop visibility there into MVFR territory until it burns
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The 500mb low across
the western Gulf of Mexico that provided some relief to the heat
across the CWA will move slowly southward tonight into Thursday
while Tropical Storm Hermine across the southeast Gulf of Mexico
makes its way northeast towards the northeast Gulf and northern
Florida. Low to mid level moisture will remain high across deep
south Texas and northeast Mexico tonight into Thursday but
subsidence should increase across the western Gulf of Mexico and
south TX Thursday into Thursday night as Hermine continues to
strengthen across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With that said...rain
chances look to continue to diminish across the CWA tonight through
Thurs night. Will mention some patchy fog across the lower RGV late
tonight into early Thursday where rainfall fell last night through
today. Temperatures will be warmer Thursday compared to today with
less cloud cover and convection across the area.
LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): the forecast area to come
under the influence of building high pressure through the
period: from northwest Mexico/Southern Plains Fri-Sun and from
the northern Gulf/southeast U.S. Mon-Wed. Main impacts will be to
temperatures and precipitation chances. Generally speaking,
temperatures will return to the somewhat above to moderately above
normal range. Apart from dry days on either end of the long- term
period (Friday and Wednesday, strengthening onshore flow points to
possible midday sea breeze/late night streamer activity Sat-Tue.
Though only somewhat noteworthy, Labor Day Monday looks to be the
best day for precipitation throughout the extended forecast as a
weak tropical wave/slug of tropical moisture approach deep south
Texas from the central Gulf.
MARINE (Tonight through Thursday night): Seas were near 4 feet with
north to northwest winds near 14 knots at buoy020 this afternoon.
Light northeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight
with surface high pressure across south Texas and Tropical Storm
Hermine across the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
will remain weak across the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday. Light
north to northeast winds will prevail across the lower Texas coast
Thursday before becoming light and variable Thurs night.
Friday through Monday: a weak pressure gradient over the northwest
Gulf will maintain modest winds/seas through the period with no
hazard headlines for small craft expected.
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