Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241637
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1137 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS AND NAM MOS INDICATES SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE RANCHLANDS OVERNIGHT. MODIFIED RICHARDSON NUMBERS ARE HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION OF BR AROUND DAWN AND WINDS ARE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS UP TO 5K FEET. THIS MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WIDESPREAD
5-6SM IN BR. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY AND RECENT RAINS ACROSS
THE AREA WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THE TEMPO FOR BR FROM 10-14Z ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 3SM WITH FOG AT KT65 TO NEAR 6SM
WITH FOG AT KMFE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY
FOG. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AS THE 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARS
TOO COOL FOR TEMPS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND TOO WARM FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT SO WILL ADJUST HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SAT AFTERNOON AND ADJUST LOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THEN...
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW AND THIS
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST VEERING WINDS TO THE SE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND AS A RESULT INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG THE COAST AND
THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH RH VALUES OF LESS
THAN 60 PERCENT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 90S ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 281
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 60S BUT BY MONDAY MORNING THE SE FLOW ADVECTING WARMER AIR WILL
BRING LOWS BACK TO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE
AND FOR DEEPER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CWA. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ON
WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH GETS INTO THE TEXAS
REGION. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS SE FLOW BACKS WINDS
MORE EASTERLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TO SURGE INTO
THE CWA AND KEEP THE CONVECTION ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THIS SE TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO WARM UP INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CONVECTION EXPECTED IS GOING TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE CWA. THERE AREA SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWING STILL DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE WITH THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THEREFORE
KEEPING THE SE FLOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE FRONT MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS MORE DIFFERENCES AS IT SHOWS
A STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST WHILE BROAD HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE DESERT SW. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
AND LOWER TEMPS AND RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME KEPT AN
EASTERLY FLOW WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
BETWEEN THE MODELS.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH LIGHT SE WINDS
RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND SURGES DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AS WELL AS WINDS AND SEAS.
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN SCEC LEVEL BUT SCA CRITERIA COULD BE REACH
IF THE TREND CONTINUOUS TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY BUT SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER TUESDAY. THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER... MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFERENCES AS TO
WHEN WOULD IT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. KEPT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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