Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 040010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...BUT DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOW THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING OFF TO OUR
EAST. AS OF 00Z...SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE STEADY PRECIPITATION WAS PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF WET SNOW AND SLEET EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LATTER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO ELEVATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...NEAR SFC
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY 06Z.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL USHER THE NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO WARMER AIR
FLOWING OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (MIXED PCPN EAST OF LK ONTARIO) EARLY...THE PCPN
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN
BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...







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