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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250747
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 330 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CLOSING OFF IN
THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARD CAPE COD THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES.

FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN NEW YORK...THIS PATTERN WILL BRING FAIR
BUT COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -2C APPEAR TO BE
COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MODEST AMOUNT OF LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS...BASED ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH
CAN BE SEEN ON IR SATELLITE LOOPS. THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL ALLOW PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH LINGERING CLOUD LIKELY TO GIVEWAY TO SUNNY SKIES WEST OF
ROCHESTER.

THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS JUST
CLIPPING THE EASTERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY...AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DISTURBANCES WILL
PERIODICALLY PIVOT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH MAY BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES A BIT WESTWARD INTO OSWEGO/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES TODAY. PREFER THE RGEM GUIDANCE OVER THE TOO OPTIMISTIC NAM
AND TOO PESSIMISTIC GFS/EURO. FOLLOWING THIS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A SHOWERS TO LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60...EVEN IN AREAS OF FULL SUN. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. MODEST NW WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN A BIT COOLER.

WHILE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL STILL LIKELY DROP TO FREEZING SO HAVE KEPT
THE FREEZE WARNING UP UNTIL 700 AM. EXPECT TONIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB
TEMPERATURES THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEP LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY
SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE EAST.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING AROUND THE PERSISTENT LOW.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO THE LAKES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S...BUT INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS COOLING INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE AREAS OF FROST AND/OR A FREEZE ARE
POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER NEW YORK STATE AND BRING
MORE SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CHARACTERIZE THIS
PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM STILL LIFTS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH FASTER
AND BRINGS SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FOLLOW
THE SLOWER GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
...HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AND TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY WARM BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY CAP AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...AND THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...AS
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH OUR REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH 12Z AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS VFR IN THE 5-6K FT RANGE. AFTER THIS EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BUF/IAG/ROC/JHW. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AT ART WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT...THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS MARGINAL TO SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE WATER TONIGHT HAS HELPED AID
MIXING...AND BECAUSE OF THIS THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED A BIT ON LAKE ERIE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY INCREASE MODESTLY
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE MORE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON EASTERN
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. AFTER THIS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ON SUNDAY ONWARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TJP