Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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990
FXUS61 KBUF 220253
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the weekend with high pressure
holding in place across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A seasonably strong 588dm mid-level ridge along with 850mb temps
running near +17C will continue our summer-like pattern into this
weekend despite the arrival of Autumn on Friday. Surface high
pressure will keep dry weather in place with high temps again
warming into the low to mid 80s or 10-15 degrees above normal
September levels.

Overnight, without a change in our weather pattern, expect more
fog and low stratus will again develop similar to previous
nights. Fog will again be most prevalent in the interior
Southern Tier river valley locations and in the North Country
low-lying areas near the Black River and Saint Lawrence River
Valleys. Stratus will likely develop along the south shore of
Lake Ontario and along the NY/PA state line. Radiational
cooling will again support temperatures dipping down into the
mid 50s inland to the low 60s near the lakes.

As mentioned above, Friday will see similar weather today. Dry
weather with plenty of sun once areas of morning fog and stratus
dissipate. Temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to mid
80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
While Autumn will officially begin at the start of this period (4:02
PM EDT Friday to be exact)...it will continue to feel more like late
July-early August. An anomalously strong 590dm sub tropical ridge
will remain anchored over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
through the time frame with the prodigious ridge being accompanied
by mid summer warmth.

The combination of strong subsidence `beneath` the ridge...H85 temps
in the upper teens C...and increasingly dry antecedent conditions
will all support afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. If
it weren`t for the fact that we have 22 degrees on the sun angle
already...we would most certainly be talking about some 90 degree
readings as well. Luckily for us...the Gulf of Mexico will be cut
off..so dew points that will start off in the upper 50s to lower 60s
will not climb past 65 by late in the weekend.

Meanwhile the nights will feature mainly clear skies with the
resulting favorable radiational cooling producing fog in open...
outlying areas...and particularly in the Southern Tier valleys. Mins
will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Southern Tier and
parts of the North Country to the low to mid 60s across the lake
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Finally...some weather to talk about.

A significant pattern change will take place across the country
during this period...and this will bring an end to the prolonged
stretch of summery weather. The change will be brought about by the
combined efforts of Hurricane Maria and a digging Canadian shortwave
over the northern plains. Each of these features will eat away at
the dominant ridge that up to this point will have been in control
for the better part of a week.

As the ridge is eroded away...some Atlantic moisture will be
injected westward across the Mid Atlantic region...possibly reaching
back as far as our forecast area. Meanwhile...a strong cold front
marking the pattern change will eventually cross our forecast area.
This could/should bring many parts of our forecast area its first
measurable rain in more than two weeks.

Breaking this scenario down into day to day weather...high pressure
will remain in firm control on Tuesday and this will provide us with
another sunny warm day.

As the aforementioned cold front bears down on our region for
Wednesday...showers will become possible. This will especially be
the case for sites across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions.

Any showers will become a little more common Wednesday night and
Thursday as the front gradually pushes across the region.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
when afternoon mercury levels will be in the 80s...then post
front...temperatures will quickly drop back towards normal late
September values.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue into the overnight hours with high
pressure in control. Another round of low stratus and fog is again
expected late tonight with impacts most likely at KART/KJHW and
KROC. IFR is likely in low stratus and fog. This will dissipate late
Friday morning or near midday with VFR again prevailing through
Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late
night and early morning with fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/SMITH



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