Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 150226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
926 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

A dry front will shift into the area tonight then dissipate.
High pressure will then prevail for Friday and Saturday.
Increasing Gulf moisture will bring a chance for rain early next
week ahead of another cold front.


The mid and upper flow will remain nearly zonal over the region
through the night. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak front will
shift into northern portions of the forecast area. Little
moisture will be associated with the front, but there will be
considerable high cloudiness associated with an upper-level jet.
Fog should not occur because of the very dry near-surface layer.
The temperature forecast is on track. Expect lows generally in
the mid to upper 30s.


A Mid-level shortwave embedded in broader cyclonic flow will cross
the eastern CONUS Friday into Friday night. In response...weak low
pressure developing off the Carolina coast will deepen as it lifts
northward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Downslope flow in the wake
of the departing low will bring decreasing clouds for Friday
night. Surface high pressure building across the region Friday
night through Saturday night will move off the coast Sunday.
Models also indicate upper level ridging developing over the
southeastern states. Dry weather is expected Friday through
Sunday. Near normal temperatures ranging through the 50s to
around 60 Friday and Saturday will warm slightly for Sunday with
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Nighttime lows will
be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.


The flow on the backside of the exiting high pressure turns more
southwesterly, allowing Gulf moisture to increase across the area
Sunday night.

Models still indicating some timing differences with the system
affecting the region early next week. The 12Z ECMWF is slightly
slower than its previous runs...though not as slow as the
spreading rain into the area. They do agree on an increase in the
chance for rain returning to the forecast area Sunday night,
lingering through Tuesday night. This will depend on where the
surface front associated with that system ends up stalling out.
Models seem to indicate that a stronger cold front will cross the
region Tuesday night, and with a return to dry weather Wednesday and

Temperatures should be warmer than normal with highs in the 60s
Monday and Tuesday. May even see some readings in the lower 70s
Tuesday. We expect highs near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Wednesday and Thursday.


High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through 00Z

A weak cold front extending from near Norfolk to Asheville to
just north of Birmingham will move into the area overnight and
dissipate. A digging trough over the Plains into the desert
southwest will result in backing 500mb flow over the area.
Satellite imagery showing a plume of higher level moisture and
cirrus clouds moving over the Gulf coast states into our area
and this should create partly to mostly cloudy skies later
tonight at the terminals which will continue into Friday. Cigs
will remain VFR with heights above 15kft. A very dry airmass in
place at 700mb down to the surface will prevent any weather
concerns or low clouds. Winds will become light and variable to
calm overnight but no fog expected with large dewpoint
depressions. Winds will pick up again after 15z Friday from the
west around 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.




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