Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281801
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
201 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will move off the coast tonight.
Increasing moisture from the Gulf will bring mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s
across much of the forecast area with easterly winds around 10
mph. Surface high pressure is centered over VA/NC with a dry
airmass in place. Precipitable water values remain below an inch
for most of the area but are just above an inch in the CSRA
along with higher dewpoints which has supported the cloud cover
down there due to diurnal heating. Atmosphere remains dry and
capped with little to no instability so will continue dry
forecast.

Tonight...Surface high pressure will shift offshore tonight
allowing a moist southeasterly flow across the area to increase
moisture generally across GA and the CSRA. This may result in
some patchy stratus or fog development in the southern counties
but confidence is low with the NAM being an outlier with
significant moisture return. Overnight lows will be slightly
warmer tonight especially across the CSRA but should see a range
in lows from the lower 60s northern Midlands to upper 60s CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure moves offshore on Thursday which allows
deeper moisture to return to east central Georgia and central
South Carolina. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
across mainly the western half of the region during the
afternoon and evening hours.

A cold front moves into Tennessee and western North Carolina
before stalling Friday Night into Saturday. This front will
provide an additional trigger for convection across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The Southeast U.S. will sit in a weakness between a Bermuda
High and high pressure aloft over the western Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Residual low level moisture from a dissipated
cold front will allow for scattered diurnal convection on most
days. Rising 500 mb heights will lead to above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the 24 hr TAF forecast
period.

Surface ridge centered over VA this afternoon has supplied dry
air to the forecast area resulting in mostly sunny skies across
much of the region. There has been an area of diurnal cumulus to
develop across much of GA and in the Augusta area this afternoon
where dewpoints are a bit higher and precipitable water values
are higher, but VFR cigs still expected with deep mixing taking
place.

Easterly winds this afternoon around 10 knots should subside
with sunset and become light southeasterly to calm overnight.
Low level southeasterly flow overnight will allow for some
moisture advection and may support some stratus development
across GA and possibly impact AGS/DNL but confidence is low as
NAM is most aggressive with the moisture return and MET guidance
only one showing any restrictions. Low level flow is weak with
no real low level jet overnight so fog may be more favored than
stratus anyway. Will include a tempo group at AGS for MVFR vsbys
and scattered stratus deck with this issuance. Otherwise VFR
conditions elsewhere through the period. Winds will pick up from
the southeast by 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A return flow and increasing low-
level moisture may provide a late night/early morning stratus
threat Thu/Fri. Scattered thunderstorms expected Fri/Sat.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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