Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 230949
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
549 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER THE AREA.
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
LAST NIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ROTATING OVER THE AREA TODAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ALONG THE CENTRAL SC
COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN GA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRATIFORM
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
SHARP PWAT GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 1.6 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST AND 0.6 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE. HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE AN E/W GRADIENT IN POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE IN THE NORTH EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA SO HAVE RAISED POPS IN THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN NAM MODEL GUIDANCE. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
COOLER GFS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND ANY SHOWERS TODAY.
SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND UPPER 70S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING PESKY UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.  AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING NORTHERLY
WINDS INTO THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN AT
LOW-LEVELS.  BEST CHANCE FOR THE DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE
UPSTATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS IS DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE FRONT.  THIS SHOULD SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EASTERN CWA.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPENCY IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL...WITH THE GFS/NAM
KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN EAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER WEST AND INTO THE CWA.  LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS MOISTURE FLOW
ALONG...NORTH...AND A LITTLE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT DO EXPECT PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BE ABLE TO PUSH IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN CWA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE LONGER TERM...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGAION INTO THURSDAY.  THIS MAY BRING WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT INTO THE CWA.  HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OUT OF THE NORTHEST...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO BRING SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.  DUE TO THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENERALY 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL.  CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT PLENTIFUL WITH
THIS PATTERN...AND THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.  OVERNIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW STRATUS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA LATE LAST
NIGHT IS PROMOTING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS HAVE FLUCTUATED BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOST OF THE SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CURRENTLY...BUT
THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS APPROACHING DNL/AGS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
AGS/OGB/CAE SCT 2500 CIGS AT CUB/DNL. NORTHEAST FLOW AT 5 KNOTS
SHOULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15 KNOTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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