Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 020534
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAKENING CONVECTION CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
WILL HOLD HIGH CHANCE POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH DEEPEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES RENEWING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH INITIATING
CONVECTION. EXPECT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND
INTO THE LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND GLFMEX WILL BEGIN TO FORCE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS ON THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z
ECMWF COMES IN LINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. FOG NOT EXPECTED.
SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GUSTY WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KKNOTS. MOISTURE INCREASING DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD...MAY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE DURING THE
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
AND PERIODS OF MORNING FOG.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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