Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 090053
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
753 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AS OF 01Z SHOWS MOST ALL OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S IN THE UPSTATE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE REST OF
THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY. A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH. DESPITE MIXING...COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL
FEED COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK.
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
INCONSISTENCY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCE...STUCK
WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP ALONG SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF -SHRA 19Z-23Z...HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN VFR.
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ON OCCASION. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOCAL MODEL PRETTY GOOD FORECASTING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING PRECIP EAST OF TAF SITES
THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY THRU WED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...87


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