Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 102336
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
636 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016
Cold high pressure over the area will shift off the coast Sunday
allowing temperatures to begin to moderate. Rain chances will
increase early next week as a cold front moves into the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Broad upper trough crossing the eastern CONUS this evening...with
the upper flow becoming more zonal overnight. Cold ridge of
surface high pressure over the region will reach the Mid-Atlantic
coast by early Sunday. Air mass remains dry and unseasonably
Potential for good radiational cooling tonight with clear skies
and light surface winds. Models suggest boundary layer winds
increasing by Sunday morning with clouds increasing from the south
as isentropic lift begins. Stayed close to MOS temperature
guidance with lows in the low to mid 20s...10 degrees below
normal. This is very close to our local radiation scheme.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An approaching cold front will draw up moisture, clouds and slightly
warmer temperatures on Sunday. This front will bring a chance of
showers as it moves across the region late Sunday Night into Monday.
The front stalls across The Midlands and CSRA Monday Night into
Tuesday as the flow aloft becomes parallel to the surface front`s
orientation. A disturbance moving along the frontal boundary will
lead to a better chance of showers Monday Night into Tuesday.
Temperatures will be above climatology for mid December both days.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers will likely linger into Wednesday as the surface
front is slow to push offshore. The Southeast U.S. will be in a
fast moving northwest flow aloft during the latter half of next week
as a deep upper low parks itself over the Northeast U.S.
Temperatures will be well below normal Thursday and Friday before
moderating on Saturday as high pressure aloft over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico builds northward.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through Sunday morning.
Clear skies continue tonight as dry high pressure builds across
the region. Models indicate low clouds with bases above 3000 feet
moving into the TAF sites from the south after 09Z as moisture
increases. Ceilings will then lower through the morning and could
drop below 3000 feet by mid-day. Surface winds will be east to
northeast 6 knots or less, but a southerly low-level jet will
cause moderate wind shear at 2000 feet. This has been included in
the TAFs beginning at 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR and/or MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will be possible Sunday Night through early
Wednesday in scattered showers and/or fog with a stalled frontal