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000
FXUS62 KCAE 190452
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1252 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE UPSTATE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
MIDLANDS AT 04Z. SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK OVERNIGHT AND
FORCING LIMITED TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE DRAGS
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER QUITE WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH CAE AREA NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COULD CAUSE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
CAUSE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE IS A
LITTLE DRIER WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN FROM 2.0 INCHES TODAY TO ABOUT
1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ON THE RISE. HIGHS UPPER 80S FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD AS EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SUMMER SOLSTICE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY. RADAR INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATER
TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO ANY FOG/STRATUS THREAT FOR LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTING TO
POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES
OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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