Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 290236 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1036 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SC/NC BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BUT SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT MAY HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT AGS AND
OGB.

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY AT AGS AND OGB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB BEFORE DAWN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
LOW CIGS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TAF
SITES BY 14Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 20Z
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ACTUAL TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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