Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 250244
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1044 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will move through the Midlands and CSRA overnight
with additional showers and thunderstorms. On Thursday the upper
level low will cross the region bringing another chance of
showers and thunderstorms to the area. High pressure and drier
air will return Friday through Saturday night with showers and
thunderstorms returning to the forecast for Sunday into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cold front has begun moving into the forecast area along with
showers and isolated thunder. Tornado watches have been
cancelled and although there is limited instability will
continue monitoring convection as the front passes over the next
couple of hours. Behind the front drier air will begin entering
the area during the early morning hours with skies partially
clearing by daybreak. Winds overnight will be southerly around 8
mph so fog is not expected. Low temperatures will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough axis will swing through the forecast area on
Thursday with a pocket of very cold 500mb temperatures around
-20C to -21C which is quite cold for late May. Expect the cold
temperatures aloft will result in scattered showers with steep
mid-level lapse rates and could even see a bit of graupel with
some of the stronger cells. By late afternoon the cold pool will
have shifted east of the forecast area and precipitation
chances should diminish along with cooler, drier air building
into the region. Highs on Thursday will be mostly in the middle
70s, limited by cloud cover and weak cool advection. Overnight
lows Thursday night will fall into the middle to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and fair weather expected to close out the week with
surface high pressure building over the area with generally
zonal westerly or northwesterly flow at 500mb. Temperatures will
be slightly below normal on Friday in the lower 80s but will
quickly warm back above normal on Sat/Sun with southerly flow
returning and weak upper ridging building over the area.

The next weather system will impact the forecast area on Sun/Mon
as a deep trough dives southeastward into the middle of the
country and 500mb flow veers to the southwest allowing moisture
to increase again over the area. The combination of weak
shortwave energy and increasing moisture will warrant small
chance pops mainly Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions giving way to VFR conditions by daybreak.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue moving across the
area with convection along the cold front weakening as it moves
eastward from GA. Front will cross the area overnight with
additional convection and some strong thunderstorms possible.
Drier air will begin moving in behind the front ...however the
upper level trough and very cold air aloft will be over the area
during the morning and afternoon hours resulting in another
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be southwesterly
at 10 knots or less...with gusts up to 25 knots possible after
25/15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Sunday and
Monday in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Significant rainfall over the past few days has resulted in
runoff into the mainstem rivers. Additional rainfall is expected
overnight and Thursday...however rainfall will not be widespread
and will be lighter than the previous couple of days. Will see
rises on area rivers over the next several days and will
continue to monitor flood potential. The flash flood watch
expired at 9pm.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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