Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231316
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
816 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure center in the western Carolinas this
morning will move into eastern North Carolina this afternoon and
be off the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. There will be considerable
warp-around moisture today supporting a chance of showers but
drying will occur tonight as the low moves farther away. Breezy
conditions will be associated with the low today and tonight.
There will be less wind as a dry pressure ridge moves into the
area Tuesday. The ridge will be over the area Tuesday night and
off the coast Wednesday. A cold front with limited moisture will
pass through the forecast area late Wednesday night or early
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The strong low pressure center will be moving east-northeastward
just north of the forecast area today. Wrap-around moisture and
instability associated with the cold air aloft with h5
temperatures -20 to -24 C support a chance of showers. Graupel
may occur with some of the showers because of the very cold
upper-level temperatures. The shower chance should further
diminish tonight as the low moves farther away and downslope
flow becomes dominate. The pressure gradient associated with the
low supports a lake wind advisory. The GFS LAMP indicated gusts
20 to 25 knots. The temperature guidance is likely too high
today because of the cold upper low close to the area and
cloudiness. Followed the consensus for the temperature tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
It should be dry with less wind Tuesday as ridging moves into
the area. The models show the ridge over the area Tuesday night
and off the coast Wednesday. Expect clear skies Tuesday and some
high cloudiness Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper ridge
axis shifts over and east of the forecast area. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front is forecast to push through the forecast area
late Wednesday night or early Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF
indicate limited moisture along the front. We have forecasted
chance pops as supported by an average of the GFS and ECMWF MOS
and GFS ensemble mean. Above normal temperatures will continue
ahead of the front but should be about normal behind the front
Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Regional radar this morning shows light rain showers shifting
northeastward across the central and eastern Midlands and CSRA.
Visibility restrictions in showers are not anticipated as rain
is too light. Ceilings have improved to VFR at OGB, AGS and
DNL, but MVFR ceilings continue at CAE/CUB this morning. Model
guidance is optimistic that VFR conditions will prevail through
most of the day, so have shown MVFR ceilings improving to VFR,
but confidence is low. Hi-resolution models show more rain
showers this afternoon associated with wrap-around moisture from
the departing low but keep the majority of the coverage north
of the terminals. Cloud cover will begin to diminish this
evening as the low and associated moisture pull away from the
area. Skies will clear out overnight.

Surface winds have diminished this morning, but will increase
this afternoon and remain around 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20
to 25 knots. Wind direction will be southwest then veering
northwest this afternoon as the center of low pressure moves
east of the TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There will be chance of showers with
associated restrictions Thursday as a weak cold front crosses the
area.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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