Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 241027
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
Hot high pressure remain over the region through the week with
above normal temperatures. Mainly diurnal scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected trough mid-week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid/upper level ridge will continue to extend eastward from the
southern plains into the Carolinas. A weak upper low off the east
coast of FL will retrograde westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
ridge into the southeastern states. Forecast soundings show signs
of a capped atmosphere this afternoon with warm temperatures
aloft...H500 mb temperatures minus 4C to minus 5C. Will continue
with slight chance pops this afternoon into the evening given weak
instability and possibly some development along the sea breeze.
Temperatures are expected to range from the mid 90s to around 100
degrees with heat indices 104 to to 108 degrees. Our criteria for
a heat advisory is 110 degrees. Overnight lows will remain
consistent... in the the 70s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mid/upper level heights fall slightly for Monday as a trough
crosses the Great Lakes region. The GFS indicate even warmer
temperatures aloft with H500 mb temperatures minus 3C to minus
4C. High temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees
cooler for Monday...in the mid to upper 90s. Diurnal convection
will once again be limited...so kept pops ranging from near 15
percent Pee Dee region to around 30 percent CSRA.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Both GFS/ECMWF indicate the mid/upper level ridge over the region
Tuesday through Thursday...sinking southward for the end of the
week as another upper trough crosses the central CONUS. Surface
high pressure will over the western atlantic will ridge into the
southeastern states with a lee-side trough over the western or
central Carolinas. Have continued low chance pops through mid-
week. Convection coverage may increase somewhat for the end of the
week as the upper level ridge slides off the southeast coast.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with
highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and lows in the 70s.
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected, outside of convection, through
the TAF period.
Some mid level cloudiness will continue into the early morning
hours in the southern half of the forecast area. A weaker LLJ than
models previously suggested and drying air aloft has allowed
patchy fog to form in the northern SC Piedmont. Fog may stay north
of all TAF sites, however can not rule out brief periods of MVFR
visibilities over the next hour or so.
Isolated convection possible Sunday afternoon but not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs at this time. SW winds this morning
will become more southerly through the day.
Winds may stay up during the early evening, particularly at CAE,
OGB and DNL, with models showing a 25 kt LLJ over the area. Low
level mixing should inhibit fog formation overnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restrictions
in afternoon and evening convection each day. Low potential for
early morning fog/stratus each morning...mainly at AGS/OGB.