Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 281045
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
645 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017
A series of troughs moving through the area today will trigger
some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. A cold front will
move through the area tonight. High pressure will build into
the region Thursday from the north while moisture increases
across the area. This may set up unsettled conditions for the
later half of the week with below normal temperatures possible
Thursday but warmer than normal over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Initial band of showers and thunderstorms associated with upper
energy is departing the forecast area this morning to the
northeast while a secondary broken band is weakening as it
moves into the western Midlands. Hi-res models show these
showers continuing to weaken this morning with a brief break in
shower activity through around midday. The upper trough axis
will shift east of the forecast area by midday with an upper
ridge beginning to build over the Southeastern states in its
wake. The strongest dynamics will be north of the area but still
expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop
early this afternoon. Instability appears limited with LI values
around -1 to -2. Drier air will begin moving into the forecast
area from the west by late afternoon with model precipitable
water values in the western portion of the area dropping below
an inch. A weak surface front will be approaching from the
northwest late in the day but with limited moisture and the
developing upper ridge, convective development will be limited.
Shower activity expected to begin diminishing by 20Z. Warm air
advection ahead of the approaching frontal boundary will promote
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With drier air working its way into the area behind the front
early in the evening, showers/storms will be limited and pushing
out of the region. Skies should be clearing with the drier
airmass. Winds may remain around 5 mph through the night
tonight behind the front. Overnight lows a few degrees cooler
than previous few nights, with readings in the middle to upper
By Wednesday and Wednesday night, ridging both aloft and at the
surface will be over the area, keeping conditions dry.
Temperatures through the day will warm well above normal with
the expected subsidence over the region, and with plenty of
sunshine. Readings climb into the lower to middle 80s. Moisture
Wednesday night may be on the increase across the north, and can
not rule out an isolated shower late in the night or towards
morning. Lows in the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain returns back to the forecast for Thursday and Friday as a
strong system begins pushing towards the region. Upper flow
becomes out of the southwest again ahead of the upper low, and
this will bring Gulf moisture northward into the area. Early
in the day Thursday, still anticipate a dry forecast, but pops
will be on the increase during the afternoon and into the
evening. Highest pops in the CSRA and western Midlands Thursday
afternoon. The deep upper low will move from the Mississippi
valley to the east Thursday night into Friday. Warm front may
move north Thursday night through Friday. Models indicting good
chance to likely pops through Friday. Potential exists for a few
strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Dry conditions over the
weekend, although moisture may return early next week. Temperatures
remain above normal.
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected throughout the 24-hr TAF period outside
of a possible shower or thunderstorm passing over the terminals
Regional radar this morning shows the first band of showers
departing the forecast area while the next broken band weakens
as it moves into the western portion of the area. Once the
remnants of this band shift east, hi-res models show a break in
shower activity late this morning through midday. Potential for
scattered convection after 16z with highest potential further
north. Have included vicinity showers through late afternoon
with no flight restrictions. Will monitor radar and amend as
necessary. Drier air will move into the area late this
afternoon/evening with skies becoming mostly clear and the
threat of showers/storms diminishing. Light southerly winds this
morning will pick up out of the southwest to around 10 to 15
mph this afternoon. Winds will diminish with sunset becoming
northerly overnight as the frontal boundary shifts east. Models
indicate potential for MVFR restrictions in fog briefly early
Wednesday morning, but believe threat is low given drier air
mass moving into the area and 20 knot low level jet.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday as
wedge conditions develop over the area. Increasing confidence in
showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday morning as a
cold front crosses the region.