Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 130614
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS PICKING
UP TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMP SCHEMES ON THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE. SHALLOW FOG AROUND THE BEAUFORT AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT..AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR
OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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