Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 290551
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY...WITH AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. TOWARD DAYBREAK...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
CLOSE TO THE US-17 CORRIDOR. LOWS 25-30 INLAND AND 35-40 ON THE BEACHES
AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY RIDGE DOMINATED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALLOWING A BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TAKE HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
A RESULT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER/LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND WELL
INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 45-55 RANGE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WARMEST AT THE COAST. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WITH
NO SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP IN THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. RELATIVELY WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MARINE AREA WHERE A
PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ENHANCES CONVERGENCE. WE BUMPED HIGH TEMPS
DOWN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TO FEATURE 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY WITHIN A COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KT AND SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURES SHIFTS WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A TIGHTENING NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH AND AN INLAND WEDGE PATTERN TAKES PLACE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





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