Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 300520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAS IN PLACE WITH N-NNW FLOW TO
CONT HERE ON THE PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WRN USA. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF HAS
MOVED ONSHORE INTO THE PAC NW. THIS TROF WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND
BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW.

SURFACE: WEAK HIGH PRES WAS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL DEPART TO THE S TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL AIR WAS
PRESSING S OUT OF CANADA INTO THE ERN USA. THE WRN END OF THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE FCST AREA
TOMORROW...PROBABLY STALLING OVER N-CNTRL KS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN A WINDSHIFT.

NOW: SUNNY...BUT THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE CANADIAN FIRES IS
PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE SUN E OF HWY 183 AS BEST WE CAN TELL.

VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PLUME WILL REMAIN E OF HWY 281
THRU TOMORROW.

TONIGHT: M/CLEAR MOST AREAS. QUIET AND DRY. MULTIPLE MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS. SOME
CLOUD DEBRIS COULD INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY N AND E OF THE
TRI-CITIES. LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BECOME SW.

TUE: HOT! ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRI-CITIES S AND W. EXPECTED MOST
OF N-CNTRL KS AND FURNAS/HARLAN COUNTIES TO EACH 100-102F. USED
AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 06Z/12Z NAM AND GFS 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS.
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IS ONLY AVERAGE OVER S-CNTRL NEB. MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS ARE DEPICTING QUITE A BIT OF MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS AND IF IT`S MORE THAN EXPECTED...FCST HIGHS MAY FALL SHORT.

PROBABLY DRY...BUT DID INSERT A 15-20% CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON
TSTM OVER NANCE/POLK COUNTIES. PROBABILITY VERY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST...TO START THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS HELPING PRESERVE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA FOR THE MOST
PART.

MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVER THE REGION
WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS
A RESULT...POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...REMAIN INTACT
FOR VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD
PROMOTE SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VISIBILITY VARIES BETWEEN 6SM AND GREATER WITH SOME HAZE AT THE
KGRI TERMINAL THIS EVENING. HIGHER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
THROUGH THE AREA ARE ACTUALLY SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CANADA. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...THEN AS IT SLIDES TO
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...JCB



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