Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
547 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Satellite and observations indicate mostly clear skies and breezy
northwest winds this afternoon. The warm temperatures and breezy
conditions have brought near critical fire weather concerns to parts
of the area. The southwest is a little drier, but the winds are
lighter. The northwest has the stronger winds, but not quite as dry.
The warm, dry weather is coming to an end.

Winds will turn to the north to northeast tonight and there will be
increasing clouds during the night. Most of the night will be dry,
but towards morning there could be some rain or snow moving into the
far northwest part of the forecast area.

On Thursday there is an upper level low approaching the forecast
area. During the morning, the best chance for precipitation will be
in the northern part of the forecast area. This should be rain and
snow mixed, changing to rain during the morning. By afternoon, there
is some instability around the area and have changed to rain
showers. There is enough instability that there could be some
isolated thunderstorms mainly across north central Kansas and nearby
portions of south central Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The main concern for this period will be the winter weather Thursday
night through Friday night. The upper level low moves from the
central high plains, through northern Nebraska and northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota, toward the Great Lakes area late Friday night.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening for
a few hours, then as colder air pushes into the region, rain will
gradually mix with and change to snow from northwest to southeast
across the forecast area during the night Thursday night. The snow
will continue into Friday morning and a small part of the area will
mix with or change to rain Friday afternoon, mostly for north
central Kansas. As the upper level low moves to the northeast Friday
night, the snow will come to an end from west to east.

In addition to the snow, the winds will turn to the northwest and
increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. This could
cause some blowing snow for some areas. Most of the blowing snow
will be in the north and eastern parts of the forecast area.

Have decided on an advisory for the area along and north of highway
92 and a warning for Valley and Greeley counties. These areas have
the best chance for the most snow and blowing snow.

Once past Friday night, cooler air settles into the area for Friday
night into Saturday with a cool high pressure system across the
area. Will have to watch the temperatures Friday night across the
north. The fresh snow and light winds, it will be dependent on how
quickly the clouds move out of the area. Saturday night there is a
little warm advection but temperatures will still be a bit cool.
Sunday will be a little warmer, but there is an upper level wave in
Kansas and there is a small chance for rain Sunday afternoon for
part of north central Kansas. Warm advection is expected for Monday
and warmer temperatures are expected. Another upper level wave is
possible Monday night through Tuesday night. There is a chance for
the area to have a little precipitation and once again it will be a
rain/snow situation as temperatures warm during the day and cool at
night. The temperatures Wednesday will be seasonable.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected for most of the overnight hours with
deteriorating conditions towards early the
approaching storm system begins to spread its influence across the
local area. Contemplated some LLWS aft 23/06Z...but think surface
winds will remain at or above 12 KTS most of the overnight did not think thresholds would be met.
Otherwise...expect MVFR CIGS to likely develop by around daybreak
at both terminals...with gusty winds and showers filling in across
the local area by midday. Precipitation should remain in the
liquid form through the day tomorrow...before changing over to
snow beyond the current valid period of the TAFs.


NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 9 PM CST Friday
     for NEZ041-046>049.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Thursday to 9 PM CST Friday for



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