Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 281651
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
951 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED SYNOPSIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
AND WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SIERRA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT
SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT FROM EARLIER DESERT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALONG THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA APPROACHES THE MEXICAN BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING NORTHWARD AND HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST. MODEL PROG THE LOW TO MOVE NORTH OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER SCAL WITH
SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
MODEL SOUNDING SHOW UNSTABLE AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE
INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN THE SIERRA OF
TULARE AND FRESNO COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
YOSEMITE AREA THIS EVENING BUT LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THERE.

A WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE CABO COAST. THUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE PROBABLE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
SIERRA. GFS PROGS A SSE FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER SCAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODEL FORECAST OF 850-MB TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BETWEEN 25-26 C OVER
THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LIKELY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE START OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 06Z TUE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 28 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO
AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950
KFAT 07-30      114:1898     80:1966     83:2003     57:1975

KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
KBFL 07-30      112:1908     67:1955     82:1980     45:1955
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD








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