Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 202214
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL
LOWER TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALSO BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HRS AGO ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INLAND...EXCEPT
LAGGING A BIT IN THE SJV WHERE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF RECENTLY ARRIVED
COOLER AIR HAS BEEN A BIT SLOW TO MIX OUT. EXPECT A CONTINUED SLIGHT
WARMING TREND OVER OUR ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...MOVING
THE TROUGH INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SHOWN MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA...AND
OUR FORECAST KEEPS JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE VALLEY
GENERALLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
SIERRA ZONES NORTH OF KERN COUNTY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TUESDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE REACHED THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPERATURES ARE THEN PROGGED TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT BUT
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THIS TROUGH MAY BE A BIT
DEEPER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SIMILAR
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THIS INCOMING TROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO AROUND CLIMO BY SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-20       96:2009     53:1957     62:1989     36:1896
KFAT 04-21       98:2009     50:1900     64:2012     36:1968
KFAT 04-22       96:2012     57:2010     66:2012     33:1968

KBFL 04-20       98:1906     59:2007     64:1939     36:1904
KBFL 04-21       99:2009     57:2010     64:2009     33:1904
KBFL 04-22       98:2012     58:2010     67:2012     34:1920
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVN...JEB
PUBLIC/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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