Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 271105
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM THAT ORIGINATED IN WESTERN CANADA IS TRACKING SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY TRANQUIL THIS MORNING...BUT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY
MIDDAY AS THE LATEST STORM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AT 10Z
/0200 PST/...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. AS THE LOW DROPS INTO OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 5520 METERS BY 00Z SATURDAY /1600 PST
TODAY/.

THE TIMING FOR THE STORM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED,,,BUT IS SUPPORTED BY THE 09Z HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID-REFRESH
/HRRR/ MODEL WHICH DOES NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE YOSEMITE
AREA UNTIL 19Z /1100 PST/ THIS MORNING...AND NOT TO HANFORD UNTIL
00Z SATURDAY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS TO BE A COLD SYSTEM...WITH THE
WET-BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE FALLING TO BELOW 850 MB OVER KERN COUNTY
BY 12Z /0400 PST/ SATURDAY. THE SNOW LEVEL NEAR FRAZIER PARK IS
FORECAST TO FALL TO 4500 FEET BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND COULD SEE SNOW
BEGIN TO FALL ON TEJON PASS SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS FORECAST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WITH THE STORM AND THIS COULD
IMPACT THE GRAPEVINE...TEHACHAPI PASS AND WALKER PASS. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A THIRD-PERIOD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL STRESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE GRAPEVINE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND IN SOCIAL MEDIA.

QPF FROM THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO BE 0.10-0.15 INCH ON THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY FLOOR...0.20-0.30 INCH IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
FOOTHILLS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE DESERTS...AND AS MUCH AS
0.62 INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA/
COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE CREST...WITH SNOW FALLING DOWN
TO AROUND 3500 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS...
INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...BUT NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...INCREASING AREAS OF IFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...SPREADING
SOUTH TO THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. LOCAL MVFR IN
SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27 2015... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN KERN... KINGS AND TULARE
COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-27       79:1992     45:1996     54:2006     26:1962
KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962
KFAT 03-01       79:1975     50:1951     59:1986     28:1888

KBFL 02-27       83:1980     46:1962     58:1988     24:1893
KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
KBFL 03-01       86:2009     48:1919     59:1920     26:1907

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
SATURDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE /CAZ096-097/.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...SANGER

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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