Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 062145
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
245 PM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SIERRA NEVADA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LASTLY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF
VALLEY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
AS WEAK INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STILL OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING
EAST AND POSSIBLY MAKING LANDFALL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
IN THE MEANWHILE...THE DISTURBANCE AS INTRODUCED A INCREASED
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH THIS...A WEAK MARINE PUSH HAS
ALLOWED FOR A DROP IN VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS MOST LOCATIONS WERE
RUNNING 3-6 DEG-F BELOW SUNDAY/S VALUES. WIND PROFILER DATA FROM
FORT ORD SUPPORTS THE COOL DOWN AS THE OBSERVED MARINE LAYER
REMAINS AT NEAR 2500 FEET MSL THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO THE COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE WEST WINDS
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO FIRE OFF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ROTATING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH ITS CENTER CURRENTLY AROUND 400
MILES WEST OF THE BAY AREA. MODELS HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
UPPER LOW AND ATTEMPT TO MOVE IT CLOSER TO SHORE TOWARD MID WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BE FELT
AS A PIECE OF VORT MAX ENERGY ENTERS THE REGION. ALONG WITH SOME
INSTABILITY...THE THREAT OF CONVECTION EXIST OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WORDING OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE SPC ONLY PLACES THE MOUNTAIN/S UNDER THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT... WEAK VORT ENERGY AND LI/S REACHING NEAR MINUS 2 OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF A STORM OR TWO.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
STATE AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...THURSDAY
MAY SEE A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST.
THE DISTRICT WILL BE MORE IN THE AREA OF NEG VORT ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ON THAT DAY. YET...WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROF DROPPING TOWARD
THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN. WHILE MODELS SHOW MORE UNCERTAINTY
WITH NEXT WEEKENDS TROF...MODELS ARE COMING MORE INLINE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THIS SOLUTION. THEREFORE...WILL NOT ELIMINATE THE
PROB OF PRECIP AS ANOTHER STORM MAY DEVELOP. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS
THE STORM TRACK AND IF IT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY MENTION CLOUDS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMP/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI RANGE FROM THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-06      111:2007     83:1903     78:2007     50:1955
KFAT 07-07      111:1905     84:1891     76:2014     53:1903
KFAT 07-08      115:1905     84:1983     81:1896     51:1891

KBFL 07-06      116:1913     85:1955     81:2011     52:1915
KBFL 07-07      114:1905     85:1983     81:1968     46:1903
KBFL 07-08      114:1905     85:1983     79:1907     50:1899
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...SR

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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