Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 231719
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
114 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST EXCEPT TO BUMP-UP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST IN OFFSHORE AND DOWN-SLOPED WIND FLOW. OTHERWISE ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE PROMISES
TO BRING PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UNDER A HALF INCH. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DRY AIR SHOULD HEAT UP
EFFICIENTLY AS IT BATTLES A PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
N. GIVEN FULL SUN...WILL FORECAST MAINLY MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL MIXED TODAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. HAVE
REISSUED THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NORTH CAROLINA TO ADDRESS
INCREASED FIRE DANGER AS FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE
DAY.

TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD SURGE MAY KEEP WINDS ELEVATED FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME. ANY ELEVATED WINDS WOULD HELP TO COUNTER THE CLEAR
SKIES...THUS PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM DEVELOPING OR
AT LEAST SHORTENING ITS DURATION. WILL CAP LOWS NEAR 40 IN OUR
COLDEST...WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND UPPER 40S
WILL BE MOST COMMON. THIS IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH VERY LIGHT AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SHOULD SEE WINDS COME AROUND BECOMING MORE ON
SHORE THROUGH THURS AFTN ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE UNDER
STRENGTHENING LATE APRIL SUN. THIS ON SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST REACHING AROUND 70 BUT
INLAND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURS NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH DEWPOINTS STARTING TO CREEP UP BUT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF SHORE THURS NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
DEEPER S-SW RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS SHORTWAVE IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. WILL TAP INTO COMBINED ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL CREATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS LATER ON FRI. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP AROUND 1.5
INCHES THROUGH FRI AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD REACH UP CLOSER TO 80 WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPS REACHING UP AROUND 60 FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...DEEPER N-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE AND RIDGE
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY UP THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND EXITING COLD FRONT. GFS SHOWS SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY
MOVING DOWN FOR SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECT A DRIER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH TIME...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST. THIS MAY HELP TO LIFT FRONT
TO THE SOUTH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE LOW MOVES EAST
THROUGH TUES NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE CAROLINAS WITH INCREASING CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS BY LATE TUES
AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TO START REACHING AROUND OR
INTO THE 80S BUT SHOULD SEE COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID 70S BEHIND COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
TODAY WILL REMAIN SUNNY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BY 00Z
THURSDAY AS WINDS BECOME N-NE AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP US CLOUD-FREE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THE DRIER
AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN
OFFSHORE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO
MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 15-18Z...REMAINING AOB 10
KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND TEMPO
MVFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY.
VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 114 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVED OFFSHORE AND IN ITS
WINDS NW. THERE WILL BE A MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS STRONGLY
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY...TO THE NNE AT THAT
TIME. SEAS MAY BUMP UP A FOOT OR SO WITH THE MORNING SURGE...BUT
GIVEN PREVAILING FLOW AT THAT TIME...WILL CAP AT 3 TO 4 FT WITH
SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH SHIFTING CLOSER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON THURS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHTER MORE VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFF SHORE THURS
NIGHT INTO FRI A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BUT IT WILL START
INCREASING OUT OF THE S TO SW FRI AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO THE SW TO W THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 3
FT UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON THURS WITH A BIT MORE CHOP IN
SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO THE COAST. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PICKS UP
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI EVE IN
S-SW WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BACK ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF
SECONDARY BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT. EXPECT W WINDS TO BACK TO THE SW
AND LIGHTEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS
TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURGE UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A RISE IN WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS UP TO 3 TO
4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR/MJC









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