Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251908
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
308 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring warm but otherwise quiet weather through
most of Friday. Rain chances will increase slowly on Friday as low
pressure tries to consolidate near the Bahamas. This feature could
bring an unsettled weekend as it drifts slowly northwestward. Rain
chances will gradually decrease early next week depending on the
speed at which this system exits.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...A high pressure system will remain centered
over the western Atlantic just southeast of Cape Fear through the
overnight period. This will keep up a mild southerly flow through
the nighttime hours, with temperatures bottoming out in the mid-60s. A
deeply-dry column will make for fair skies and dry weather through
daybreak on Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure
system over the western Atlantic will extend over the eastern
Carolinas through much of the short term, keeping in fair skies, dry
weather and warm temperatures through at least Friday afternoon.
This is when forecast uncertainty increases. Guidance continues to
suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move
towards the south-Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring
increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, especially along
the coast, in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. It is unlikely that
winds associated with this system will be a concern Friday night as
guidance still shows a weakly organized and relatively distant
system at that time.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 3 PM Wednesday... Rain chances on the increase on Saturday
though how much depends on what shape the Bahamas system takes. A
more open trough up and down the coast would favor some coastal rain
whereas a more consolidated low near Florida may not. Interesting
the the WRF shows the latter but also an area of rain up the coast.
With the added cloud cover Saturday will end up seeing a high in the
low 80s, generally cooler than those leading up to it. Will show a
further increase in rain chances by Sunday as though the system will
be very slowly meandering its overall drift should be north and
westward. Forecast uncertainty only grows from there as some models
show that the system could have a weak reflection (and thus its
associated moisture) around through Tuesday. Assuming this comes to
pass the ever present clouds will keep highs close to climo (despite
the upper ridging otherwise favoring much warmer) while nighttime
lows remain a solid category above normal. At some point towards the
end of the period we should transition back to increasing sun and
daytime warmth in addition to waning POPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 18Z...VFR conditions through the period. Shallow convective
clouds showing a little more coverage this afternoon but should
pose no threat to aviation concerns. Column remains too dry to
support any significant fog formation.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR conditions expected...until
the weekend when MVFR gigs are possible in scattered to numerous
showers, isolated TSTMS.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 330 PM Wednesday...High pressure will remain centered over
the western Atlantic just southeast of Cape Fear through the
period. This will allow a light south to southwesterly flow of 10
to 15 kts to continue through much of the near term. Winds will
taper off to around 10 kts or less by daybreak on Thursday
morning. Seas will remain right around 2 ft through the period.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM
Wednesday...The western limb of a broad high pressure system over
the western Atlantic will extend over the waters through much of the
short term, keeping winds light and seas of only around 2 or 3 ft
through at least Friday afternoon. However...guidance continues to
suggest that a yet-to-form tropical or sub-tropical system may move
towards the south-Atlantic coast on Friday night. This may bring
increasing chances for showers or thunderstorms, along with
gradually increasing winds and seas, into the pre-dawn hours of
Saturday. However, it is unlikely that winds associated with this
system will even be strong enough to warrant any advisories or
warnings for the short term as guidance still shows a weakly
organized and relatively distant system at that time. For now
expecting NE winds of 10 to 15 kts Friday night, with seas building
to 3 to 4 ft.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 3 PM Wednesday...  Some of the forecast parameters that we
have some confidence in are that winds will be onshore and seas will
tend to build through the period. Points of uncertainty are more
related to the degree of wave building, which is related to the yet
uncertain strength of the system. The size of the system will also
modify the compass point of the onshore flow, which could wind up
from NE to E or SE. Overall though the chance for an advisory
appears slightly diminished.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK



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