Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 241131
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND
THEN OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...A VEIL OF CIRROSTRATUS COVERS THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND AT TIMES ONLY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE VISIBLE THROUGH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD.
EXCEPT FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ABOUT 20 KFT...THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 5-15 KFT LAYER. RELATED FORCING WITH THIS
RATHER POTENT FEATURE WILL ALSO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS
AND THUS...THERE WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WARM...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THE POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE COAST...MAY SERVE TO RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OFF
THE COAST SAT MORNING WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. ANY CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE SUNNY
SKIES. COMBINATION OF DEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON
PERIPHERY OF EXPANDING 5H RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD FREE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK
START TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST UNDER 5H RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS LIKELY WELL ABOVE CLIMO TUE/WED. DEEP DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
NEAR ZERO. RIDGING ALOFT BREAKS DOWN/SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THU. FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...THOUGH CHANCES
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP IS ADEQUATE
GIVEN THE LIMITING FACTORS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DAY 7. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH FROPA
ANTICIPATED EARLY FRI MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LGT
NORTHERLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND LGT/VRBL AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THE ENTIRE
VALID PERIOD. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THIS EVNG/OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH PASSES AS WINDS BECOME LGT/VRBL AT ALL TERMINALS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN INCREASINGLY SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 KT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH UP TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECTION WILL BE N OR NW ALTHOUGH A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE MAY
BRING WINDS ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BACKSWELL FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED COMPARED TO THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 2
TO 3 FT...BUT ONLY ABOUT A FOOT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TO WINYAH BAY DUE TO
SHADOWING. WAVE PERIODS WILL BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST BUILDS EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG FRONT WELL OFF THE COAST SAT MAY INDUCE MORE WESTERLY
FLOW...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED.
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL BE SAT WITH 10 TO 15 KT POSSIBLE...DECREASING TO
10 KT OR LESS ON SUN. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD MON MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST LATER MON INTO TUE WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF MON WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE DAY. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED TUE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PEAKING AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT
FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR








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