Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 130032
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
832 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FROM MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS WERE SETTLING OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MIDDLE EVENING UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP JUST EAST OF
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW WELL INLAND...BUT LONGEVITY HAS BEEN
LACKING DUE TO UN-SUPPORTIVE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND WANING SOLAR
ENERGY. THIS SETS UP UP FOR NEARLY A TYPICAL SUMMER OVERNIGHT
PERIOD EXCEPT PERHAPS DRIER AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL.
WE HAVE YET TO LOG ANY COMPLAINTS ABOUT THIS EXPECTED WEATHER SO
FAR TONIGHT AT THE NWS OFFICE.

ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE AND THE FOCUS
MAY SHIFT TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH COAST BUT ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AT BEST EXPECTED. MINIMUMS EARLY SUNDAY UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ONLY TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED SHORT TERM FROM LAST NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH MAJOR
LONGWAVE TROF AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE
U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A REFLECTION OF THESE CHANGES
BEGINNING ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER TROF
AXIS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE ILM CWA AND POSITIVELY TILTED DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FOR SUNDAY...AFTER RESIDUAL MORNING PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG...MODEL
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF THE BI-STATE
FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE INDUCED
CONVECTION...HAVE PRETTY MUCH KEPT A NULL POP DAY ACROSS THE ILM
CWA...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR MID JULY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...CHANGES TO BEGIN. A RATHER ROBUST CENTRAL CAROLINAS
SFC TROF IE. PIEDMONT TROF...IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. BETWEEN THIS
TROF AND THE WELL AMPLIFIED BERMUDA HIGH RIDGING/EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FA...THE SFC PG WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN
SW-WSW WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE FA DURING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THRU MONDAY NIGHT. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
SOME CONVECTION AS MOISTURE INCREASES THRU THE ATM COLUMN THRU
MONDAY NIGHT. THE PIEDMONT TROF WEST OF THE ILM CWA SHOULD FIRE
SOME CONVECTION THAT MAY DRIFT/MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ILM CWA BEFORE THE DAYS INSOLATION CEASES. OVERALL...POPS WILL
ONLY PEAK IN THE CHANCE CRITERIA. FOR TEMPS LEANED ON THE HIER
SIDE OF MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH MON MAXES AND MINS. THE SW
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ILM CWA
WHICH WILL NEGATE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBILITY. LOOK FOR
MINS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST TO HOVER AROUND 80 ALL NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH CENTERED OVER THE LAKES IT WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO VEER LOCAL FLOW TO SWRLY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRETTY
DEEP. PAIR THIS WITH A HEALTHY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THE STAGE APPEARS
TO BE SET FOR A HEALTHY DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY
COULD OFFER SIMILAR OR EVEN HIGH RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS THE UPPER
WAVE SPREADS EVEN MORE CYCLONIC CURVATURE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY SHIFTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ALONG WITH IT...BUT THE GFS NOW IMPLIES THAT TRAILING UPPER ENERGY
DRAWS IT INLAND ROUGHLY THE LENGTH OF OUR ENTIRE CWA. ECMWF DOES THE
SAME BUT IS SLOWER. IN THE END POPS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED WITH RESPECT TO CLIMO BUT NOT AS HIGH AS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD DURING THE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z...WITH
THE LOWEST VSBYS EXPECTED INLAND AT KFLO/KLBT. IFR APPEARS MOST
LIKELY AT THESE TERMS BETWEEN 09-12Z BASED ON GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. TEMPO IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS WELL...
MOST LIKELY AT KCRE...THOUGH MVFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SUNDAY WILL BE VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SEA BREEZE TSTM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AFTER MIDDAY...OUR TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS ADVECTING INTO THE WATERS
IN SOUTHERLY SLOW LATE TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET IN A MIX OF SE
WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS...AND SSE WAVES 1 FOOT EVERY 4-5
SECONDS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS...BUT MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY...REMAINING WIDELY SEPARATED.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...SCEC CONDITIONS FROM BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BE REALIZED MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT.

DISSIPATING OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS WILL START OUT THE SHORT TERM. IT WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING FROM THE STRONG BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE/HIGH
SEAS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT WITH A
SSW-SW WIND DIRECTION WITH BENIGN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS MAY POSSIBLY
INITIALLY BEGIN VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS EARLY SUNDAY.

THE PIEDMONT SFC TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY...BECOMING MORE OF A PLAYER TO THE WINDS ON
MONDAY AS THE SFC PG BETWEEN THE TROF AND BERMUDA RIDGING
TIGHTENS. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT
DURING MONDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL REMAIN
DOCILE ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT 3 FOOT SEA BREEZE INDUCED WIND-CHOP NEAR
SHORE. FOR MONDAY...WAVEWATCH3 AND SWAN MODELS BOTH INCREASE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...DUE TO BUILDING WIND
DRIVEN WAVES AND THE BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED GROUND SWELL...ALBEIT
SMALL. THE BOTH WILL COMBINE TO BUILD SEAS TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY UP
TO 6+ FT ESPECIALLY OFF CAPE FEAR...LATER MONDAY THRU MONDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THE RESULT OF A PINCH BETWEEN LARGE AREA OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A WELL DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH. SHOULD
5 FT SEAS BECOME PREVALENT ENOUGH THEN SCEC COULD BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY THIS GRADIENT MAY BE NUDGED JUST OUT TO SEA ENOUGH FOR
ABOUT A CATEGORY DECREASE IN WIND...ALLOWING SEAS TO FALL PERHAPS
A FOOT IN HEIGHT. COLD FRONT STALLS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ON
THURSDAY KEEPING WINDS W TO SW AND MORE SEASONABLY LIGHT. ANOTHER
APPROXIMATE 1 FT DECREASE IN THE LARGER WAVES EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR






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