Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 102228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
526 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

Dry weather will continue with a return toward normal
temperatures into Tuesday. Another cold blast will arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong dry cold front moves
through. Arctic air mass over the Carolinas on Wednesday will
warm back up Thursday through Friday. Another frontal system
will increase rain chances on Friday followed by a brief cool
down on Saturday.


As of 300 PM Sunday...High pressure will control area weather
through Monday resulting in mainly clear skies through the period.
Temperatures will be below normal with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s tonight and highs Monday in the 50 to 55 degree range.


As of 300 PM Sunday...Seasonable start to the period will be
followed by another cold blast late Tues into Tues night as a
strong dry cold front moves through. As the next shortwave digs
down into the Southeast on Tuesday, it will push a strong cold
front through the Carolinas. Ahead of this front winds will back
to the SW and increase as gradient tightens. This relatively
warmer and moister flow will allow overnight temps Mon night to
remain up in the mid 30s to around 40.

Winds will begin to veer to a more westerly direction as cold
front approaches on Tues. This will initially bring temps up
into the mid 50s to near 60 for high temps on Tues, but there
will be an increase in clouds through the day as cold front
moves through, followed by deep cold and dry air heading into
Tues night as shortwave clears the coast. Overall, expect temps
to plummet late Tues into early Wed as 850 temps take a nose
dive from up near 8c early Tues down to -11c by daybreak on Wed.

A clear start Mon night will be followed by some clouds as
front moves through Tues aftn into early eve and then very dry
air will move in with dewpoint temps dropping down into the
teens by Wed morning. This arctic blast will feel even colder
when you combine the gusty NW winds early Wed making temps in
the mid to upper 20s feel as if they are closer to 20 degrees.


As of 300 PM Sunday...The extended will feature primarily a
continuation of below normal temperatures as anomalous ridge across
the western CONUS drives deep troughing over the eastern half of the
country. This trough will be re-enforced no less than 3 times,
Tuesday night just before the extended, Friday, and again late
Sunday, as 3 potent shortwave dig through the longwave trough and
cause a surge of cold air to envelop the Carolinas. Each of these
shortwaves will be accompanied by a cold front, but for the most
part these will be dry. However, the front next weekend could be
preceded by enough moist advection that showers will be possible.
The ECM is much different from the GFS/CMC next wknd as it does not
produce this third shortwave or cold front for Sunday. Despite the
pattern being amplified, mid-level flow remains fast, so it seems
likely another shortwave cold front would be in the vicinity by the
end of the period and will lean the forecast in that direction, but
much uncertainty exists by D7.

Temperatures behind the cold fronts, Wednesday and Friday, will be
well below normal, with Wednesday highs likely peaking in the low
40s. Weak warm advection does occur after each FROPA, so
Thursday/Friday, and likely again on Sunday, will have temperatures
more towards climo norms.


As of 00Z...Could make an argument for one line TAFs. High pressure
centered to our southwest will give us light mainly westerly flow
through the forecast period. Moisture profiles do not support fog,
however some shallow ground fog is possible in the usually prone
areas. VFR Monday.

Extended Outlook...VFR.


As of 300 PM Sunday...Expect W to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT through
the period with seas of 2 to 3 feet. No flags required.

As of 300 PM Sunday...Southwest winds will increase Mon night
into Tues ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Winds will
veer to the west to northwest through Tues remaining up to 15 to
20 kts. As cold front passes across the waters late Tues, winds
will veer to the NW allowing a blast of very cold and dry air
to move in. Expect seas to reach into SCA thresholds by Tues
aftn and should remain up to 5 to 7 ft in increasing off shore
flow and plenty of CAA through late Tues into early Wed. The
increasing off shore flow will keep highest seas in the outer
waters Tues night.

As of 300 PM Sunday...Gusty NW winds greet the period behind a cold
front which will be offshore Wednesday morning. Seas will be falling
thanks to the offshore flow, but wind speeds of 20-25 kts early
Wednesday may necessitate an SCA carryover from Tuesday. High
pressure will build across the waters the latter half of Wednesday
and Thursday, allowing winds to ease to 10-15 kts while maintaining
a W/NW direction. Seas will fall in tandem during this timeframe,
becoming around 2 ft after briefing touching 3-5 ft Wednesday
morning. Another cold front will approach during Friday, and ahead
of this feature winds become W/SW and increase again to 15-20 kts
driving seas up to 4-6 ft, and another SCA may be required near the
end of the week.





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