Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 291112
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
712 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A VERY WEAK BUT DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...A COLD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
BREAKING RECORD LOWS. WILMINGTON`S ALREADY BEEN BROKEN BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FALLING AND MAY TIE RECORDS IN FLORENCE AND
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

RECORD LOWS FOR THIS MORNING (SUNDAY MORNING MARCH 29)

WILMINGTON          31 IN 2011 ***NOW BROKEN WITH 29***
FLORENCE            28 IN 1966
NORTH MYRTLE BEACH  31 IN 2013

RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION WILL TURN NEUTRAL BY DAYBREAK...WITH WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH 50-55 ACROSS SE NORTH
CAROLINA AND 55-58 ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA...EXCEPT SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE.

WITH THE HIGH JUST STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AT SUNSET AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY 9 PM. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PLUS
INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP ERODE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER
2 AM...PRODUCING A RISING TEMPERATURE CURVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE
FASTEST MODEL WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ANY WX OR
POPS. THE BULK OF OTHER MODELS PLUS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
MON WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE
FRONT IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW THERE IS A SUBTLE 5H
FEATURE HELPING PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST PVA AHEAD OF
THE FEATURE ALONG WITH PERIOD OF INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION. HOWEVER DO THINK WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAK/LIGHT SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEVER SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1 INCH AND
INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AROUND 8K FT. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND DYNAMICS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE STABLE LAYER THE LACK OF
MOISTURE IS APT TO KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT DO
SEE CONVECTION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
INHERITED HIGH CHC LIKELY POP FOR MON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A WARMING TREND HIGHS AND LOWS WILL END UP BELOW CLIMO.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT ON TUE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MID LEVEL WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. SHOULD IT
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IT MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMER BUT ULTIMATELY BELOW CLIMO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONLY BE
DISRUPTED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ON THU AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN CONUS. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH COUPLED WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD
TO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REGION BRIEFLY DRIES OUT LATE THU NIGHT AND FIRST PART OF FRI AHEAD
OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT. FRONT WILL
TAKE ITS TIMING CROSSING THE REGION...DUE TO THE FLAT MID LEVEL
FLOW...BUT EVENTUALLY A SUBTLE 5H IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY SAT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING...ALLOWING FOR VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 10 KTS
WILL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...WITH THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO SHOWERS/MVFR MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND AGAIN THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA IS SINKING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. A SURGE LINE MOVED SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM...ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THE BEACHES GUSTS ARE REACHING 15
KNOTS WHILE FARTHER OFFSHORE AT BUOY 41037 (WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
OFFSHORE BUOY) WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEARLY 25 KNOTS. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LAST UNTIL DAYBREAK A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.

A WEAK SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE
THE HIGH WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND INLAND-TO-MARINE AIR TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL REMAIN SMALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
BEHIND THIS HIGH THIS EVENING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

AT THE BUOYS SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE (1 FOOT
NEARSHORE IN THE LEE OF LONG BAY) TO OVER 4 FEET OUT AT THE FRYING
PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS MAY INCREASE A BIT MORE THROUGH DAYBREAK BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE HIGH...THEN
WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM THE
NORTHWEST MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT ITSELF LACKS SIGNIFICANT COLD ADVECTION
AND THE POST FRONT GRADIENT IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE 10 TO 15 MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

ONLY SHOT AT HEADLINES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AFTERNOON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SCA CONDITIONS SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SANS
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND
EXPECTED WARM ADVECTION.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST
WED AND SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS CONTINUE
VEERING...ENDING UP SOUTHEAST THU AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THU NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THU AND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN 2 TO
3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...


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