Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1001 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

High pressure will control the weather through most of the
period with temperatures mostly above seasonal averages. There
will be a risk for mainly afternoon showers and possibly
thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday ahead of a cold front on
Wednesday and then on Friday in association with a warm front.


As of 1000 PM Friday...We will be under the influence of weak
warm advection overnight. There will be no danger of a frost or

Cool high pressure is offshore and the return flow around this
feature will keep winds from the SSE and S overnight at 5 to 10
mph. Low level moisture has been steadily rising through the day
and dewpoints will be elevated through the night. This may
result in some patchy late night/early morning fog, however,
there will generally be no significant restrictions to
visibility. The exception may be across portions of Williamsburg
County where given the wind direction, residual smoke from a
prescribed burn in Berkeley County earlier today may combine
with some fog to reduce visibility to 2 miles or so through
shortly after sunrise when mixing will begin.

Lows tonight will be around 50 to mid 50s along portions of the
immediate coast.

Increasing mositure advection and afternoon heating Saturday will
likely make for a more extensive cu field and can not rule out a
lone shower or two. In addition, a cirrus shield will gradually
thicken as an upper trough deepens over the Mississippi River
Valley. Temperatures in the mid 70s will otherwise make for a
pleasant day as the warm southerly flow continues.


As of 230 PM Friday...The latter part of the weekend into early
next week will feature a slowly evolving pattern as mid level
high pressure hangs on to the southeast and low pressure wobbles
through the Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure will be
weakening slowly as the mid level low has an attendant front or
more like a trough moving across the southeast with a weakening
band of showers and possibly thunder. I did maintain the low
chance pops for Sunday although I wouldn`t be surprised to see
the activity remain to the west with the waning forcing and
persistence of high pressure. Highs should be well into the 70s
Sunday despite a lot of cloud cover with lows both Sunday and
Monday well into the 50s.


As of 324 AM Friday...A very mild week on tap with a series of
southern stream short- waves providing a chance of rain Monday
into Tuesday and again late in the week. Maximums this week each
day will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s, and generally
warmer inland away from the cooling effects of the ocean as a
robust sea breeze looks in the making each afternoon. Cross
sectional analysis and instability parameters suggest a slight
chance of a TSTM late Monday through Tuesday. Low level and
moist southerly wind flow will prevail this period, with a brief
and weak back-door frontal intrusion early Thursday will little
consequence except to lighten winds for a small time before
another southern stream system approaches, followed by a rain
potential on Friday.


As of 00Z...VFR is expected at all the terminals, although a
period of MVFR BR is possible 09-12z at KLBT and there may also
be brief BR at KFLO overnight. For KILM, KMYR and KCRE, marine
stratocumulus, 3-5 kft should advect onshore tonight, but
perhaps not enough to include a ceiling. Any residual cumulus
for KFLO and KLBT will quickly dissipate early this eve.

Increasing low-level moisture may lead to some MVFR BR at KLBT
and KFLO around sunrise. Then on Sat, we expect scattered to
broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to 5000 ft, to develop
for the inland terminals while more or less persisting for the
coastal terminals. There will be a tendency for the lower clouds
to erode in the wake of the stabilizing seabreeze, especially
at KCRE and KMYR mid and late afternoon. Can not rule out a spot
shower as was the case this afternoon, but too remote a
possibility to be included in any TAF.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through Tue.


As of 1000 PM Friday...Return flow around offshore high pressure
will keep winds from the SSE and S overnight. The slack pressure
gradient and lack of significant nocturnal jetting will keep
wind speeds at or below 10 kt. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 ft
as residual and weak SE swell remains.

As of 230 PM Friday...Essentially a summer like pattern across the
coastal waters through the period. High pressure well offshore will
dictate conditions and this should yield a southeast flow around ten
knots. There could be some acceleration in the vicinity of the sea
breeze per usual. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

As of 324 AM Friday...Summer like pattern continues as S-SW
winds prevail 10-15 KT. A SE swell will keep seas slightly
elevated, but dominant periods of around 10 seconds will not
make wave particularly steep. Late Tuesday into early Wednesday
a few TSTMS can be expected as a low pressure system passes
north of the area. Wednesday may see a few storms linger over
the Gulf Stream waters.





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