Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 261956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL EJECT TO THE N/NE AND
INTENSIFY TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW IS CLIPPING SE GA/NE FL THIS AFTN. THESE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S COAST. WITH WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MINIMUM WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
SE GA WITH UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FOR NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THURSDAY.

WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO STIR ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL. A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FROST/LIGHT FREEZE WILL
EXIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS...AND INLAND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...
SO HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...THEN LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD CAN BE ADJUSTED UP AS
NECESSARY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...AND MODELS CONVERGE ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...WHEN THE REGION WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH BROKEN CUMULUS FOR
SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ THIS AFTN DISOBEYING THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS
12-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTN WILL DECREASE TO 10-12
KT TNGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
W/NW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND SHOULD MAXIMIZE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 30 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 25 KNOTS NEAR
SHORE. GIVEN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY...WILL RETAIN
THE GALE WARNING OFFSHORE AND SCA NEAR SHORE THROUGH MID MORNING
TUESDAY. VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE. IMPROVEMENT
TO SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE
REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
LOWER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  34  57  33  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  39  55  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  36  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  39  58  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  36  62  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  63  38  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE



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