Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 241702
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1202 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Late morning surface analysis depicts strong low pressure (985 millibars)
centered just near Long Island. Weak high pressure (1018
millibars) was building over the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft...a deep
and negatively-tilted trough was progressing slowly northeastward
towards the New England seaboard, with zonal flow in its wake over
our region. Our local pressure gradient is in the process of
relaxing, with breezy westerly winds and clear skies prevailing. Cool
air advection is shutting off, with temperatures rising into the
60s as of 17Z and dewpoints generally in the 40s. Highs will rise
to slightly above climo levels this afternoon, with upper 60s
expected for most of southeast Georgia and around 70/lower 70s for
northeast and north central Florida. High pressure will build
eastward to a position over the Florida peninsula tonight,
allowing for radiational cooling in north central Florida.
Low level southwesterly flow will develop over inland southeast
Georgia after midnight. Lows tonight will fall to the 40-45 range
inland, with upper 40s expected at the beaches.
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Sustained
westerly winds of 10-15 knots will continue through 22Z...with
occasional gusts near 20 knots. Winds will quickly subside after
Strong low pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
continue moving northeastward and away from our region, allowing
our local pressure gradient to gradually loosen this afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory continues through this afternoon for the
offshore coastal waters, where west northwest winds of 20-25 knots
will subside late this afternoon, and seas of 6-9 feet will
subside back to caution levels by early evening. Small Craft
should continue to exercise caution in the near shore waters, as
offshore winds of 15-20 knots will gradually subside towards
sunset, with 3-5 foot seas today subsiding to 2-3 feet tonight.
Weak high pressure will build to the south of the waters tonight
and Wednesday, allowing offshore winds to prevail. Seas offshore
will subside below caution levels shortly after sunset. A cold
front will approach our coastal waters from the west on Wednesday
night, with southwest winds quickly increasing to caution levels
in the near shore waters and Small Craft Advisory levels offshore.
Seas will build to caution levels of 4-6 feet offshore on
Wednesday night, and will peak in the 5-7 foot range on Thursday.
The cold front will cross the coastal waters by the early
afternoon hours on Thursday, with winds becoming northwesterly in
the wake of the front. Caution level wind speeds will prevail
through Friday night in the near shore waters and through Saturday
Rip Currents: Low risk to continue into the upcoming weekend due
to offshore winds.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 42 75 60 / 0 0 0 30
SSI 66 48 73 60 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 70 42 76 61 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 70 48 76 62 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 71 43 76 60 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 71 45 77 61 / 0 0 0 10
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
20 to 60 NM.