Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
320 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday...Another surface high will
build to the north tonight as a cold front shifts off the east
coast. The high will settle south into the Carolinas on Saturday
maintaining the onshore winds for se Ga/ne Fl. Cirrus canopy will
continue to thin tonight as upper ridge builds over the se
states. This combined with low level moisture will likely result
in areas of late night/early morning fog over se Ga and inland ne
Fl where winds will be lighter. Above normal temperatures will

Sunday through Monday...this period starts out with low to mid
level ridge across GA and SC which ends up retrograding west and
southwest as a shortwave moves in from the northwest Sunday night
and Monday. This shortwave passes through with little to no sensible
wx affects with a lack of deep moisture. A few light showers are
possible over the marine waters Saturday night and Sunday due to an
area of enhanced moisture and convergent low level flow.
A couple showers may affect the northeast FL coast but will probably
leave as only 10% chances at this time.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

As shortwave trough moves well offshore of the east coast...mid to
upper level high pressure will move back to the east from south
central U.S. and move to the southeast states. Thus...sfc high
pressure rebuilds north of the area with a strengthening east to
northeast flow and occasionally breezy onshore winds and slight
chance of coastal showers through Thursday. A change in the pattern
looks likely by the end of the week and into the weekend with
ridging in the eastern U.S. replaced by a trough and perhaps a
closed mid level low pinching off somewhere around GA/AL by Friday
evening as shown by latest operational 12z GFS and ECMWF runs. There
is a large spread in the GFS ensemble guidance on this so confidence
is low on this panning out at this time. Consensus guidance suggests
about 20-40 percent chance of showers by Friday-Friday night. Max
temps in lower to mid 80s Tuesday will slowly decrease through the
week. Lows near or just above normal.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through this evening.
Late night areas of fog possible again tonight and have 3-5sm
vsbys for most TAF sites 08z-13z. IFR conditions will be a
possibility and may be added with next TAF issuance.


.MARINE...NE winds and elevated seas will continue into early
next week as high pressure is repeatedly reinforced to the north.
SCEC and SCA conditions will continue offshore mainly due to
seas/swells through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk this weekend due to onshore winds and


AMG  57  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  78  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  62  81  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  66  80  67  80 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  60  83  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  61  83  62  84 /   0   0   0  10


AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 PM EDT Saturday
     for Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.



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