Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 190127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
927 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017


Yet another inverted coastal trough offshore will move towards the
southeast Georgia/northeast Florida coast this evening. The
increased convergence along the coast will lead to a few bands of
moderate to heavy showers moving onshore this evening south of St
Simons Island. Very localized heavy rainfall could occur if these
rainbands train over the same area in the next few hours and
again late tonight into Thursday morning for areas south of St
Augustine when shower activity is expected to become enhanced
again. A lull in coastal showers is expected after midnight as the
first trough moves inland with only a few isolated light showers
possible near the coast. As mentioned, this activity should pick
back up again along our southern coastal zones late tonight.

The main updates this evening were to increase evening rain
chances for coastal areas south of St Simons Island and to
increase sky coverage to mostly cloudy/overcast for areas along
the coast. Mostly clear/clear skies will continue across inland
southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida located well
inland. This combined with lighter winds will allow for cooler
temperatures across these areas. The breezy onshore flow coupled
with marine stratocumulus clouds and shower activity will keep
coastal areas much warmer.



Decided to go more pessimistic with ceilings overnight given the
latest satellite/radar imagery showing clouds and showers moving
onshore from the Atlantic. Confidence has therefore increased
enough to show MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites through the
overnight hours. Prevailing ceiling heights should lift into the
low VFR range Thursday morning. Scattered showers this evening
will create brief periods of IFR conditions in heavy rain and SGJ
appears to be the one TAF site with the best chance to see IFR
conditions. The DUVAL County terminals could also see some shower
activity overnight but confidence not high enough to show anything
lower than MVFR at this time. Additional coastal showers will be
possible during the day on Thursday with the best chances at SGJ.



Small craft advisory conditions continue. We decided to go ahead
and extend the SCA for the nearshore zones due to increased
confidence that SCA conditions will persist through at least
Thursday evening. Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts
will continue through at least Thursday evening. Elevated seas
will also remain persistent through at least Thursday evening.

Rip Currents: A High Risk of rip currents will continue on
Thursday due to persistent onshore winds and rough surf.



Coastal flood warnings remain in effect through Thursday morning
for areas primarily along the ST Johns river basin and its
tributaries. Coastal Flood advisories are in effect for all
coastal areas for possible minor flooding at times of high tide.
Rough surf combined with elevated tides will likely cause at
least some minor beach erosion.


AMG  55  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  67  77  67  80 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  65  79  66  81 /  40  20  10  20
SGJ  72  80  70  81 /  60  40  20  20
GNV  64  84  64  85 /   0  20  10  10
OCF  65  84  65  86 /   0  20  10  20


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal

     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Clay-Coastal
     Duval-Flagler-Inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.



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