Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281758
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIRRUS BLOW-OFF FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WAS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IT IS HAVING NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS THEY HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...AND OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST INTO AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. THE GFS HAS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND
HI-RES GUIDANCE ARE NOT GOING ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EVENING
AND DRY OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...ALONG THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS THEY MOVE INLAND. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
VERY WARM ONCE AGAIN...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.SHORT TERM...
FRI NIGHT...ISOLATED INLAND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE DUE TO
SEA BREEZE MERGER ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
RESIDE...OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE THE
COAST UNDER ESE FLOW.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...PREVAILING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REGIME WITH
DRIER AIR WILL FAVOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES CAPPED AT 20%. SAT NIGHT UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE WNW. HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MEAN LAYER
1000-700 MB RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL WHERE LIGHT
STEERING FLOW WILL ENABLE BOTH SEA BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND AND
MERGE WHILE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SE GA WILL PREVAIL IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. INDICATED THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES BETWEEN I-95 AND I-75 SUN AFTN/EVENING OF 30-40% WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE OVER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH NEAR 90 POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INLAND NE FL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL TEMPER HEATING. SUN
NIGHT PRECIP DECREASES WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...
UNSETTLED PATTERN MON-WED UNDER MEAN LAYER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AS SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL KEEP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST GFS40 CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE MEAN
LAYER TROUGH PUSHING DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE WED...WITH
A MORE STABLE AND DRIER NW FLOW THU WITH A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND SE GA TO 60S NE FL AND COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AND THEN WASH
OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD GET NEAR THE
TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS
THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOME OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS SATURDAY INLAND SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  91  67  91 /  30  10  10  20
SSI  68  85  68  81 /  30  10   0   0
JAX  68  89  69  89 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  69  86  70  84 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  67  88  68  90 /  10  30  20  20
OCF  66  89  68  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

KENNEDY/ENYEDI/WALKER


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