Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 250749
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
349 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Broad upper level low/trough over the eastern Gulf will push west
and northwest into the western Gulf through tonight. Deep
southeasterly flow will result, and deeper moisture will surge
northward into northeast Florida. Precipitable water values are
forecast to increase from around 1.3-1.4 inches this morning to
around 2 inches by this evening across northeast Florida. However,
very warm air aloft will remain across the region, with 500mb
temperatures -3.5-4C. CAPE values will be rather low due to the
capping aloft and dewpoints mixing out into the mid/upper 60s for
a large portion of the region. Dry conditions are forecast across
most of southeast Georgia due to drier air remaining aloft. Sea
breeze boundaries will move inland in the afternoon, which will
help spark scattered showers/storms across northeast Florida,
mainly south of I-10 and west of I-95. The greatest chance of
storms will be across the southern part of the region, especially
Marion County. Hot temperatures are forecast once again with highs
in the 90s. Dewpoints mixing out in the mid 60s to lower 70s will
keep heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
Storms will diminish in the evening with loss of daytime heating,
and temperatures overnight will be in the low to mid 70s by
.SHORT TERM (Tuesday-Wednesday night)...
A Bermuda High will begin to build in across the area resulting
in increased subsidence aloft and a continuation of hot/humid
conditions. The axis of the 1000-500 mb ridge will be just
south of the area on Tuesday and will shift over the area
Wednesday. Convection will be limited due to the increased
subsidence aloft and the primary mechanism for lift will
be afternoon seabreezes which will converge across the
inland areas. While some storms may be strong (especially
where boundaries collide)...the warm temps/increased subsidence
aloft will tend to minimize the severe potential of storms.
Any storms that manage to get going will fade in the eve after
the loss of heating. Hot afternoon temps in the mid 90s inland
when combined with the humidity will produce heat indices
of 100 to 105 degrees. Coastal areas will be slightly cooler
due to the afternoon seabreeze.
.LONG TERM (Thursday-Sunday)...Deep layer ridging will continue
across the area through the end of the week...then will
flatten out some and shift southeast next weekend as short
wave energy from both the northeast U.S. and Miss Valley cuts
into it. Continued hot afternoon temps and limited convection
due to subsidence aloft with the primary focus for storms the
seabreezes. Best rain chances will be across the inland areas
where seabreezes and other outflows merge. Temps to continue
above normal with max temps in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices near 105 degrees inland. Slightly lowers temps at the
coast due to the seabreeze.
MVFR vis is possible at KVQQ, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail through the period. Light winds overnight will become
southeast at 8-13 knots in the afternoon as the sea breeze moves
inland. Low level will increase across northeast Florida, and
storms are possible near KGNV in the afternoon and early evening.
Surface high pressure east of the region early in the week will
shift southward Wednesday through the end of the week, with south
to southwesterly winds prevailing over the waters. Southeast winds
10-15 knots are forecast each afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze moves inland. A few showers/storms are possible the next
few nights over the Atlantic waters along the land breeze.
Combined seas of 3 feet or less are forecast.
Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through Tuesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 96 73 95 75 / 10 10 30 10
SSI 91 77 92 79 / 10 10 20 20
JAX 94 73 94 75 / 10 10 30 20
SGJ 90 75 91 77 / 20 10 30 20
GNV 92 73 92 73 / 50 30 40 10
OCF 93 74 93 73 / 50 40 40 10