Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 260702
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
202 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL DRIFT EAST VEERING WINDS TO THE NE TODAY WITH A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH
THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED STRATCUMULUS FORMING THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SE GA
AND MID TO UPPER 60S OVER NE FL. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SW FLOW OVER
RUNS THE SHALLOW NE FLOW. FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NEAR THE INVERTED TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY. WITH
THE BOUNDARY NOT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH WEAK
WAVES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
INTERIOR SE GA THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING NE FL MAINLY DRY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW
WELL TO THE NORTH...SO WILL CAP POPS AT MID END CHANCE MONDAY
AFTN ACROSS SE GA...WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR NE FL. ABOVE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH WARM HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S. WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
SOME FOG.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE GFS HANGING THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS NE/NORTH-CENTRAL FL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NUDGING THE
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT IN EITHER CASE...MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE RATHER STRETCHED OUT. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO NEW YEARS DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ITS
APPROACH LATE NEW YEARS DAY WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS SE GA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS TIL AROUND 12Z. OTHERWISE VFR TODAY WITH
LIGHT NE WINDS. FOG AGAIN TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
05Z.

&&

.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
FORM TONIGHT JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE NE WINDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST
MODELS SHOW TROUGH BREAKING DOWN WITH WINDS BECOMING SE TO S EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. NO HEADLINES AS
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  47  68  54 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  60  52  63  57 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  65  52  71  58 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  64  57  69  61 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  67  51  74  60 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  69  53  77  61 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/








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