Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 220744
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
244 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Drier air is moving into the region this morning ahead of a
coastal trough, with precipitable water values dropping to around
0.75 inches. Wind has remained around 5 knots as well, which has
kept temperatures very mild in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.
Patchy fog is possible early this morning, mainly across southeast
Georgia. Mid/upper level high pressure off the Carolina coastline
will weaken slightly today while building a little closer to the
region. Dry with near record high temperatures will continue, with
highs in the low to mid 80s across the interior, and mid to upper
70s along the coast. See records for today below in the Climate
section.

Low level moisture is forecast to increase from the southeast
tonight as another coastal trough develops and moves inland. There
is a slight chance to chance of showers for the far southeastern
portion of the region overnight. Elsewhere, dry and mild
conditions will prevail, with lows in the 60s. Patchy fog is
possible once again tonight.

SHORT TERM (Friday through Sunday night)...
The mid/upper level ridge off the southeast Atlantic coast
retrogrades over north central Florida by Friday afternoon. This
will allow a tad more low level moisture from the south that could
result in a few isolated showers Friday afternoon. Subsidence
from the ridge will keep mainly dry and warm conditions. Mid
levels remain dry and stable and any shower activity will be very
short-lived. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s coastal areas
and lower to mid 80s across the interior. Lows will be in the
lower 60s Friday night. The deep layer western Atlantic ridge
shifts over south central FL Saturday as a upper level trof moves
over the Central Plains. Mainly dry and warm conditions will
continue on Saturday with only a few brief daytime showers
possible across the interior southern tier of the CWA. The mid
level ridge will slip south and elongate across south FL Sunday.
High pressure well east of the state will also slip south and
allow low level flow to veer to southerly on Sunday. This will
allow low level moisture to gradually increase with low end
chances for shower activity late Sunday as near the Altamaha River
Basin and our NW zones. This front moves slightly southward or
stalls south of the Altamaha Sunday night where isolated to widely
scattered showers are expected along and NW of highway 84 in
interior SE GA. The likelihood of late night and morning fog
increases thru this period given the slight increase in low level
moisture and dry mid level air. Temps will continue well above
norms this weekend.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Wednesday)...
The best precip chances occur Monday, along and north of I-10 as
the front slowly migrates southeastward near I-10 SE into the
Big Bend region late Monday. Scattered to numerous shower coverage
is possible across SE GA Monday as PWATs near 1.5 to 1.75 inches
ahead and along the front. The front finally moves through the
rest of NE FL and north central FL Monday night. Lingering shower
chances could hang around Tuesday with a residual surface coast
trof develops with northeast onshore flow developing while
temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 70s interior and near
70 coast for highs, and mid to upper 50s for lows (still above
normal for late February). Frontal boundary will then lift back
north into mid week. This will bring more cloudiness and showers
east of 301 Wednesday, with max temps

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period. Periods
of scattered to broken MVFR stratus will impact some of the TAF
sites overnight. Winds will slowly diminish through daybreak, with
easterly winds around 10 knots prevailing through the day on
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Ridge axis will set up north of the waters through the end of the
week, and E/SE winds around 10-15 knots and seas from 3-6 ft will
prevail. For the weekend, flow becomes southerly as high pressure
moves further offshore.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk in onshore flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Maximum Temps for Feb 22nd...
JAX 85/1962...GNV 86/2013...AMG 82/2005...SSI 81/2011

Record High Minimum Temps for Feb 22nd...
JAX 70/1961...GNV 67/1961...AMG 65/1962...SSI 64/2017

All-Time Record High Maximum Temps for the month of February...
JAX 88 on 02-26-1962
GNV 88 on 02-26-1971
AMG 87 on 02-21-2018
SSI 85 on 02-28-1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  62  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
SSI  75  60  74  61 /   0   0  20  10
JAX  82  64  79  62 /   0  10  20  10
SGJ  78  66  77  63 /   0  20  20  10
GNV  84  65  81  62 /   0   0  30  10
OCF  86  64  83  63 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Cordero/



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