Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 291927

National Weather Service Jackson KY
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Issued at 200 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Just a quick update to fine tune PoPs and thunder chances through
the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Also adjusted the
T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These updated grids
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

14z sfc analysis shows a stacked low descending into the southern
Ohio Valley. This is bringing with it plenty of clouds and shower
bands. The bulk of the showers (and a few thunderstorms) are
moving north to northwest through the eastern portion of the CWA.
The morning fog has, for the most part, broken up or lifted
across the area. Temperatures are fairly uniform through eastern
Kentucky - in the middle to upper 50s with dewpoints similar.
Winds are generally from the north to northwest at around 5 mph.
Based on the latest near term guidance, expect the clouds and
shower threat to continue through the afternoon, largely affecting
the eastern and northern parts of the CWA. Will continue the
chance for thunderstorms into the evening with these showers. The
grids have been updated with these thoughts in mind along with
incorporating the latest obs and trends. The grids have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshened set of zones.

UPDATE Issued at 710 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

We should see a lull in precipitation this morning as the
lingering overnight showers exit the area. So have trended back
pops mainly in the western half of the forecast area throughout
the morning hours. Also refreshed the hourly temps to reflect
most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Scattered showers continue to progress eastward through far East
Kentucky this morning, well behind the cold frontal boundary that
has already exited to the southeast. The deep upper level low that
provided us with this showers is currently over southern Indiana
and is expected to push into central Kentucky today. With the low
centered over our forecast area, skies will remain mostly overcast
throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the lower
60s. With upper level dynamics in place, showers and a slight
chance of thunder will once again be possible today, peaking in
the afternoon hours. Though, most high-res models keep the best
chance for rain/storms in the far east and over West Virginia.
Depending on how the upper low pivots across the area, along with
the position the upper level jet, this certainly seems possible.
Instability wanes tonight, and models agree on a dry slot wrapping
around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up
by dawn on Friday. The upper low is then progged to wobble a bit
northwest throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot works
further into our area. High temperatures should rebound slightly
into the upper 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon as long as the dry
slot comes to fruition and skies clear up a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

The extended period should feature isolated rain showers to begin
the period Saturday and Sunday, as a slow moving area of low
pressure slowly rotates through the region. They system will have
only meager lift an moisture associated with it, so any showers that
form with it should be isolated to scattered at best, mainly for the
western and northern portions of the forecast area. Once the upper
low rotates out of the Ohio Valley and out of our area Sunday
evening, the remainder of the extended should be dry and pleasant. A
ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle over the region through
out the upcoming work week, which would bring mostly clear to partly
cloud skies, dry conditions, and light winds to eastern Kentucky.
Daily highs are expected to top out in the 70s for most locations. A
few spots along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway
corridor may reach or slightly exceed 80 degrees Tuesday and
Wednesday. Nightly lows should bottom out in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Cigs should continue to improve throughout the afternoon with vis
restrictions only due to showers or a stray storm. Later tonight,
dependent on how much low level moisture sticks around and how
many locations see rain today, fog will be possible. In addition
to the fog, cigs will also fall through the night with IFR and
MVFR to be common. Look for conditions to improve to VFR at most
sites Friday morning. Winds will remain around 5 knots or less
throughout the period.




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