Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 300842
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
342 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016
The CWA is currently under somewhat zonal upper level pattern
with a ridge centered over Mexico and troughs on the west side of
the Rockies. Surface high overhead will lead to light and variable
winds today. Convection through Tuesday will diurnal with
scattered coverage beginning late morning and carrying over into
the late afternoon hours. Weak flow pattern means storm movement
will be erratic and outflow driven. Model soundings show a very
pronounced inverted-V, so should have some fairly gusty conditions
in the more intense storms. Above normal temperatures will persist
with highs around 90 degrees.
The southern of 2 troughs mentioned earlier will gradually track
east across northern Mexico early this week, reaching central Texas
by Friday afternoon. It will begin to weaken the slight upper ridge
in place over the area Thursday and Friday which will result in a
noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the
forecast area. Have slightly increased pops to 30 to 50 percent
Friday as the trough approaches. A northern stream trough will
expand southwest towards the gulf coast over the weekend when will
keep numerous showers and thunderstorms going across the region.
Thus kept previous forecast of around 50 percent pops through
FG and low ceilings at HUM this morning but other sites should stay
above 2sm this morning. VFR at all sites for at least the majority
of the day. sh/ts activity would be the only variable that could
cause IFR conditions but that would mainly be for BTR and HUM. If
any showers do occur near or at any terminal today, fog would be
High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters. Variable winds of generally less than 10 knots will persist
today. Seas will be 2 feet or less. A cold front will move close to
the area by next weekend, but no other major issues seen over the
marine environment through the week.
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 69 92 70 / 30 10 30 10
BTR 92 70 91 70 / 30 10 30 10
ASD 91 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
MSY 91 73 89 73 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 90 73 90 74 / 30 10 20 10
PQL 91 72 90 73 / 30 10 20 10