Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.