Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 290909
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
409 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Showers and thunderstorms are slowly moving southward as a cold
front dips into the forecast area today. The area is still going
to be moisture loaded as PW values based on model soundings are
well above 2.2 inches. The good news is that it looks as if most
of the dynamics are displaced from our area and that may keep
convection on the lower side...but that is not to say that it
won`t rain. Will carry a 70 percent chance of rain for a large
portion of the area today. With this atmosphere, a few storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. The WPC maintains a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for today. Will hold off on
a Flash Flood Watch as it seems like storms should have some
decent movement and some of the hires guidance is not as robust
with convection as the front moves through. The takeaways is that
rain chances will be higher than the last few days. Expect a few
strong storms that are capable of producing heavy rainfall and
some localized flooding. Behind the front expect drier air to move
into the area Sunday. It should be a nice day on Sunday and
noticeably comfortable. Morning lows will be cooler, especially
across the northern half of the area where temperatures will drop
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. South of the tidal lakes, warm
lake temperatures should mitigate effects on low temperatures.

.LONG TERM...
Moving into next week the front should stall over the Gulf of
Mexico and should retreat northward over the area again near mid
week. Guidance points to another wet period starting mid week
lasting through the end of the week. Will have to watch trends as
the new week begins. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered convection pushing south southeast across
southern Mississippi this morning and may impact the TAF sites
across the northern half of the forecast area with the best
chances at KMCB, KASD and KGPT. A weak cold front will move south
across the area today into this evening with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms forecast. The greatest
concentration will likely be across the northern half of the
forecast area. The convection will diminish from north to south
late in the day and during the evening hours. Outside of areas of
convection, generally VFR category conditions will prevail at the
terminals. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Winds have already begun to increase across the coastal
the waters and are close to SCS criteria and winds will continue to
increase to 15-20 kts over all of the open waters and sounds later
today as the cold front slowly approaches. Once the front actually
begins to move into the waters winds will begin to back down and
slowly veer to northwest with offshore winds finally developing over
the waters late tonight as the front moves deeper into the Gulf.
After frontal passage winds will also begin to increase again but
should remain below SCS headlines until Sunday night and then winds
should only be 15-20 knots over the open waters east of the MS Delta
as drier air works into the region along with the pressure gradient
tightening. The front will stall in the Gulf so look for the
offshore winds to continue to veer around becoming northeast Sunday
evening and then easterly by early Monday morning. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines
            Radar Watch

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  70  89  69 /  70  20   0   0
BTR  87  71  90  71 /  60  40   0   0
ASD  87  73  90  73 /  60  40   0  10
MSY  88  76  90  76 /  60  40  10  10
GPT  86  73  90  74 /  60  40   0  10
PQL  86  70  90  72 /  60  40   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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