Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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520
FXUS64 KLIX 010900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A LULL IN THE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST LONG. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LOOKING AT OUR SUNDAY...ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY COOLED INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS RAINFALL SETTING UP IN A WEST TO EAST LINE
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHSHORE AREAS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AS CAPE VALUES
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTINUING IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY INCREASED MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. FINALLY...LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS A WAVE
DIVING SOUTH PUSHES IT THROUGH THE AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT WHICH IS
AT THE LOW END OF MVFR CEILINGS. CANNOT RULE OUT KGPT FALLING INTO
THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN FL050-080 MAY HINDER
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THREATENING ANY OF THE TERMINALS...THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO
THE WEST OF KLFT. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
KBTR AND KMCB AROUND 12Z-13Z. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR ANY
NEEDED CHANGES FROM CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. ANY TERMINALS DIRECTLY
AFFECTED WILL EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE OUT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. LIKELY TO SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS BEYOND 06Z MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN...AND CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO MEET HEADLINE CRITERIA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR REACHES THE
WATERS.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  78  62 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  82  69  81  65 /  70  50  60  50
ASD  82  70  83  66 /  60  40  50  50
MSY  81  72  83  69 /  70  40  50  50
GPT  82  71  82  67 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  81  69  81  68 /  50  30  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35



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