Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 252109
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
409 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Weak upper low is over the forecast area and is triggering a few
showers and thunderstorms over the area. This upper low will
weaken and rain chances will come down tomorrow and lower to a dry
forecast on Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s over the next few days. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...
Mid level ridging will be in place through Thursday. Guidance
points to a cold front...well cool front with little to no
moisture moving through the area Friday into Friday night. Drier
and cooler air will move into the area behind the front for the
weekend. Medium range models struggle with timing/location of
shortwaves beyond Sunday. Moisture return begins as high pressure
along the Atlantic coast turns winds onshore. Have maintained a
blend of guidance in the long range. Temperatures should cool into
the mid 80s by the weekend and overnight lows will dip into the
60s. Little to no rain is expected at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers will continue to develop over coastal areas and
south of tidal lakes this afternoon affecting KGPT, KNEW, KMSY
and KHUM. This activity will push west and develop more inland
later in the afternoon. Will carry tempo for TS most taf sites and
use vicinity SH for KMCB and KBTR. There will be a chance of MVFR
to brief IFR conditions at a few airports due to patchy fog late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. 18

&&

.MARINE...
A weak trough of low pressure over the north central Gulf of Mexico
will push west through tonight. Ridge of high pressure will build
just to the east of the coastal waters through the late Wednesday.
Winds and seas will collapse mid week with light southeast flow of
10 knots and seas of 3 feet or less during this period. A cold front
is expected to push through the coastal waters Thursday night into
Friday. Cool air advection off of brisk north winds over warm warmer
will cause waves to respond upward to 5 to 6 feet well offshore
Friday and Saturday nights. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  91 /  10  30  10  10
BTR  70  89  71  91 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  70  88  71  91 /  30  30  10  10
MSY  74  88  74  90 /  30  40  10  10
GPT  71  87  73  90 /  40  30  10  10
PQL  69  88  70  91 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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