Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 302014
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME
COOLING EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...HERNAN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SO FAR HAS RESULTED IN NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. STILL EXPECTING TO AT
LEAST SEE SOME AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OVER THE MTNS BUT SO FAR NARY A CU
HAS FORMED, AT LEAST NOTHING BIG ENOUGH TO BE SEEN FROM SPACE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON/EVENING MTN/DESERT TSTORMS
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF HERNAN MOISTURE. ANOTHER WARM
DAY TODAY, THIS TIME WITH THE MUGGINESS COURTESY OF HERNAN. HIGHS
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, SO NOT RECORD
BREAKING HEAT BUT DEFINITELY NOTICABLY WARMER THAN THE TYPICAL
SUMMER CONDITIONS.

LESS MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH THU BUT A CASE COULD BE MADE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YET AGAIN. STILL MARGINAL LEVELS OF LOW LVL
MOISTURE (MAINLY EASTERN LA COUNTY) AND LI`S AROUND -3 BUT OVERALL
NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS TODAY, AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ACTIVITY SO
FAR TODAY IT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR TOMORROW. SO WILL REDUCE
POPS TO BELOW 15 AND REMOVE THUNDER FROM FORECAST.

STILL VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, IN FACT PROBABLY
WARMEST MOST AREAS FRIDAY. MINIMAL MARINE LYR CONCERNS NEXT COUPLE
DAYS EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AT TIMES. SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE SBA AREA NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS.

THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN SAT SO WE`RE EXPECTING A COUPLE
DEGREES OF COOLING SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE MARINE LYR
COVERAGE BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF DRY AIR FROM A
WEAK NRN CALIFORNIA TROF AND MOIST AIR COMING UP FROM MEXICO
SUN/MON, OUR LITTLE VERSION OF THE DRY LINE IN THE PLAINS. AS OF NOW
THE MODELS PLACE THIS LINE ALMOST RIGHT ON THE LA COUNTY LINE. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE
WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT MOSTLY OVER THE COLORADO RIVER SO THIS WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN DETERMINING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION
AND IF WE GET ANY DIRUNAL CONVECTION AS WELL. IN ANY CASE, LOOKS
QUITE ACTIVE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER AND SURROUNDING DESERTS, EVEN
THE ERN SAN BERNARDINO MTNS, BUT IT DRIES OUT PRETTY FAST THE
FURTHER WEST YOU GO. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP IN THE SMALL CHANCES OF
TSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AS IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A WAG TO THE WEST TO
GET IT IN HERE.

MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK A BIT ON THE COOLING FOR THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA WHICH IS MORE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE WARMED THE HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY LA/VENTURA
COUNTIES, BUT STILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1800Z.

MOST SECTIONS HAVE A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z
TAFS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTH COASTAL TAFS WHERE THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MARINE CLOUD FORECAST AND WHETHER THE CLOUDS
WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. KSBA MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
BIT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR; THE WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED AS A
PRECAUTION. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...30/300 PM PDT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN ZONES
673 AND 676 WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.  STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ZONES 650 AND 655...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE SANTA BARBARA
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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