Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 120015 AAA
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
415 PM PST THU FEB 11 2016

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

THE HIGH SYSTEM WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A LOW SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS PRODUCED ANOTHER HOT DAY TODAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS. WHILE MOST RECORDS LOOK SAFE BY A DEGREE OR TWO...A
COUPLE COULD BREAK INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WHICH WAS ONLY
OFF BY ONE DEGREE AT 1 PM.

EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO LOWER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WEAKEN. THE
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING...ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL COAST ON FRIDAY AS DENSE FOG IS ALREADY HUGGING THE
COAST. THEY MAY END UP EVEN NEEDING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BY
MORNING. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE. DESPITE THE
COOLING TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH EASTERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BOOST THE OFFSHORE FLOW OVER SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH ANY DENSE FOG OFF THE COAST
AND PROVIDE A LITTLE WARMING. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SLO AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY. THESE WINDS LOOK BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS HOWEVER...SAVE FOR THE I-5 CORRIDOR. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE LA MARATHON IN SPOTS SUNDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE (590 DM) OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO
MORE HOT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN
THE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW PEAK OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. A FEW WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS. TO NO SURPRISE...THE
HOTTEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK.
SEVERAL RECORDS WILL LIKELY FALL. THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW DOES
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...BUT TO LESS OF A DEGREE OF WHAT EARLIER
COMPUTER PROJECTIONS WERE CALLING FOR. THE RESULTING COOL DOWN
LOOKS LESS NOTICEABLE AND COULD BE NON-EXISTENT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
REGION...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN TERMS
OF THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS PROJECTING A MUST MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WITH MARGINALLY DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...RESULTING IN
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONT...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BASED ON ITS PERFORMANCE ON OUR SMALL SAMPLE SIZE OF STORMS
THIS SEASON...BUT THE GFS IS TRENDING EVER-SO-WETTER WITH EACH
RUN. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT THEM IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR NOW. REGARDLESS...WE SHOULD SEE AN ABRUPT END TO THE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...12/0000Z.

AT 00Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 350 FEET DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AROUND 1500 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT MOST
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...THEN
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z. ANY EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NO WIND
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...11/200 PM...

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL 10-60 NM AND FROM
POINT SAL TO SANTA BARBARA ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EARLIER AND
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WITH
SWELLS BUILDING OVER 10 FT IS LIKELY FROM PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO SAN
CLEMENTE ISLAND EXCLUDING THE INNER BASINS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
SWELLS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 10 FEET IN THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG NORTH AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM
      FRIDAY TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
      PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 670-673. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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