Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 311151 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOCAL OFFSHORE
WINDS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY MINOR
VARIATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
WITH UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN DESERTS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW ARE STILL BLANKETING LOS ANGELES COUNTY...BUT
SHOULD THIN OUT THROUGH THE THE DAY. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AS WELL AS
INTERIOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN SOME PATCHY STRATUS FOR THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COASTS. BY LATE THIS MORNING...ANY STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WHICH
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...SO CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ALL AREAS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORY ISSUES AS THERE SHOULD ONLY BE
LOCALIZED GUSTS REACHING CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW...CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 70S TEMPS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...FLOW TURNS WEAKLY ONSHORE AND HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE BIGHT. SO...WILL EXPECT
SOME STRATUS/FOG TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VENTURA/LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES AND EVEN SQUEEZE INTO THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO ONSHORE INFLUENCE WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL
BE PERSISTENT...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT A BIT ON TUESDAY...THEN AMPLIFIES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH INCHES SLOWLY EAST WITH A FRONT MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN. OVERALL
WILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT ONLY VERY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS
AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AS FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES...BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MINOR
THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. NEITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...CHANGES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE MINOR WITH
THE BEST COOLING LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/1100Z...
CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS ACROSS
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND VLYS...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS IN THE VLYS. N
OF PT CONCEPTION...MOSTLY LIFR TO VLIFR CONDS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF VTU AND SRN SBA COUNTIES...BUT
STRATUS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD MORE INTO AT LEAST VTU
COUNTY BY DAYBREAK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS BY LATE
MORNING...THEN OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDS THROUGH SUN
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS OF SLO AND
SBA COUNTIES...WHERE IFR TO VLIFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDS WILL NOT MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 2O TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL NOT SCATTER OUT
UNTIL AT LEAST 20Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z TUE.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH 17Z
THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 AM...

JUST SOME LOCAL WINDS GUSTS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR WIND OR SEA ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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