Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 280553
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY FOR A COOLING TREND AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SPREAD
COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG INLAND EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...AFTER A HOT DAY WITH PLENTY OF HIGHS IN
THE 100 TO 105 RANGE IN THE VLYS...FOOTHILLS...AND EVEN ALONG THE
SLO CENTRAL COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW HI CLOUDS WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY FALL ONLY INTO THE HIGH 70S. SOME
GUSTY W WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE ANTELOPE VLY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SUNDOWNER WINDS WERE ALSO NOTED ALONG THE SBA S
COAST AND MTNS...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOTED AT THE REFUGIO
RAWS STATION. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THIS
EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER SRN CA TONIGHT THRU FRI. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE E PAC AND INTO
CENTRAL AND NRN CA FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
RIDGING AND GRADUALLY LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER S INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
AND MAINLY THE L.A. COUNTY COAST NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FROM FRI
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU SUN. ONSHORE GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THRU SUN...WITH SOME GUSTY S TO W
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR VLYS...FOOTHILLS...MTNS AND DESERTS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL COAST EACH AFTERNOON. SUNDOWNER WINDS CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED EACH EVENING FOR THE SBA S COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE...
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE FRI EVENING AND
PERHAPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON FRI...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 100S AGAIN IN THE VLYS AND FOOTHILLS. ABOUT A 5
TO 10 DEGREE COOL-OFF CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SAT...BUT HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SEVERAL AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD COOL
FURTHER FOR SUN...WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)... LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A FAIRLY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OVER THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL DOWN
MONDAY...THEN NOT MUCH DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
HIGHS STAY 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL HELP SPREAD THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
STRATUS INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/0545Z

AT 0515Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HI CONFIDENCE IN ALL CAVU TAFS.

KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 06Z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

27/900 PM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
INNER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...STRONGEST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/JACKSON
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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