Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 161847
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1140 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
1800 FOOT MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK EDDY HAVE BROUGHT A STRATUS DECK
TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND VLYS THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL IN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME ACROSS THE COASTS AND
INTERIOR AS THEY WERE YDY BUT THE VLYS WILL COOL DUE TO THE DEEPER
MARINE LAYER.

LOOK FOR A SIMILAR MARINE LAYER CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT. BUT THE
CLEARING THURSDAY WILL BE SLOWER AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN
A FEW BEACHES WITH NO CLEARING DUE TO THE FACT THE A WEAK UPPER TROF
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND ADDITIONAL
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAY. BETTER ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS WILL
PROVIDE COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALL MDLS FCST A BIG BROAD TROF TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR A SUPER DEEP MARINE LAYER WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH ALL
THE VLYS AND ONTO THE COASTAL SLOPES. SLOW TO NO CLEARING ACROSS THE
COASTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE VLYS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS 8 TO 12 DEGREES BLO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
A LITTLE RIDGING ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SMOOSH THE MARINE
LAYER DOWN SOME AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARM UP FOR THE VLYS AND
INTERIOR. THE COASTS WILL REMAIN COOL.

A BROAD PRETTY FLAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTS AND MANY
VLYS. GRADIENTS RELAX AND CLEARING SHOULD BE QUICKER. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO WARM SOME MORE WITH HIGHER HGTS AND THE WEAKER SEABREEZE.

MORE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HGTS.

THE EC AND THE GFS NO AGREE THAT THE TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW JUST WENT FOR THE DEEP MARINE LAYER AND MUCH
COOLER SCENARIO BUT HAVE TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS MARINE
LAYER BUT MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FCST FOR THIS
TROF EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...16/1800Z.
THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO 2200 FEET THIS MORNING BUT BURNED AWAY
RATHER QUICKLY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE DISTRICT. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE TOO
MUCH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT GET A FEW
HUNDRED FEET DEEPER. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE EVENING AND IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
VALLEY TAFS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SLOWLY
RISING CEILINGS.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. IFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING MVFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SLOWLY RISING
CEILINGS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SIRARD

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