Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 161130
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Some light, shallow fog has developed around KPVW and could
persist until shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected. Afternoon and evening t-storm activity should be mostly
east of the terminals, but could be a close call at KCDS. A weak
front will bring a northerly wind shift across the area, but wind
speeds will remain around 10 kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level short wave which brought isolated storms to the
region yesterday evening was departing out towards the Midwest
early this morning. This system will drag a cold front through the
area today and stall out. This cold front will become the focus
for additional convection this afternoon into the evening. Models
were fairly mixed earlier on whether convection will develop along
this front but the latest model runs have come in better agreement
depicting isolated thunderstorm development along and to the
southeast of the front; mostly across the Rolling Plains. However,
monsoonal moisture will be shunted to the southeast with the
departing short wave. Strong low level moisture ahead of the front
will continue to result in mixed layer instabilities between 1500
and 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Even the instability alone may be
able to obtain isolated convection with minimal subsidence
overhead.

The center of a sprawling upper level ridge over the southeastern
US will begin to move west on Thursday. This will leave the area
locally in a weakness aloft which may allow thunderstorms to
develop again. The cold front that is expected to affect the
region today will retreat back north during the day on Thursday
allowing the entire region to become unstable. The upper ridge
will become more centered over West Texas from Friday through the
weekend. This may keep convection at a minimum until early next
week. The ridge will be nudged to the east by a deep upper level
trough becoming established off the west coast. The position of
these features may allow monsoonal moisture to become stationed
near or just west of the region allowing for convection chances to
return.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

33


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