Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261735
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S UNDER NW WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TODAY...THE POTENT UPPER TROF THAT WILL SOON HELP CREATE THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BLIZZARD IS PUSHING TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND AWAY FROM THE MIDSOUTH. A QUICK MOVING SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH
THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS WIND SHIFT EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST
ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST... ALONG THE TN RIVER...WHERE LOWER 40S
IS ABOUT THE LIMIT...TEMPS WILL HIT 50 ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
ARKANSAS WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL.

TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DROP INTO WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO SWITCH THE SURFACE WINDS BACK AROUND TO
THE NORTH. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE GUSTY BY MORNING AND
WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. AS A RESULT LOWS WILL ONLY BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE QUICK MOVING SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER. THE MAV AND
MET ARE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAVE HAD
TO CUT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S NEAR PARIS...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY TO
THE MID 50S ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 50S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SITUATION SETS UP
WITH DEVELOPING WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER A COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE.
MODELS TIMING AND CONSISTENCY ARE NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT. GFS IS
FASTER...ECMWF IS SLOWER. WILL COMPROMISE WITH LOW POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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