Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

At 3AM, Temperatures are rather mild across the Mid-South,
ranging from the lower 50s to near 60 degrees. Latest water vapor
satellite depicts a distinct shortwave trough traversing the
plains and upper Mississippi Valley. A couple of mesoconvective
systems are ongoing downstream of the main trough axis, with
cirrus clouds beginning to overspread the Mid-South.

For today, expect high and mid level cloud cover to increase this
afternoon ahead of the approaching shortwave. Temperatures will be
similar to yesterday with highs around the 80 degree mark. The
main story this afternoon will be elevated fire danger as relative
humidity values drop to 30 percent and southerly winds increase to
around 10 MPH. Will add some enhanced wording to the fire weather
notification and hazardous weather outlook to address the
increased danger.

The aforementioned shortwave is expected to dig southeast across
the lower Mississippi Valley by late afternoon and enhance upper
level lift across the area. Widespread rain will be limited by
the lack of moisture through the column as precipitable water
values will barely exceed 1 inch. Nonetheless, the best chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be over Northeast Arkansas and
north of the I-40 corridor. Unfortunately, the front is expected
to weaken as it moves south overnight, limiting the amount of rain
that will fall south of Interstate 40.

The main storm track will remain removed well to our north over
the next seven days, as a large ridge of high pressure builds over
the southern U.S. As a result, temperatures will continue to
remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs will generally be in
the upper 70s and lower 80s, with lows in the 50s. The next chance
of rain will not occur until late next week as the upper level
pattern appears to finally break down.



18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period.
Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over
northeast Arkansas tonight but are not expected to reach the KJBR
area. Winds will be mainly from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon before diminishing to around 5 knots tonight.




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