Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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548
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The weak upper shortwave that moved through the Midsouth earlier
is now to the east and is dissipating. Clouds ended up decreasing
from west to east during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms have
developed behind the shortwave, but most activity is occurring
farther to the south where fewer clouds were present allowing for
more instability.

A well defined upper low over the southwestern US is providing a
moist southwesterly flow aloft over Texas and lower Mississippi
valley. Several weak shortwaves along this flow pattern will keep
higher than normal chances of showers and thunderstorms in place
through Saturday. There may be enough instability to trigger a few
strong thunderstorms with gusty winds during the day. The chance
of showers and thunderstorms will increase areawide by Saturday as
the upper low moves across the lower Mississippi valley and a cold
front approaches from the northwest.

A cold front will move through the region Saturday night into
Sunday. This front will bring an end to the chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the forecast period into early
next week as a less humid airmass advects into the area from the
northwest and a weak surface high builds into the region.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z Taf Set.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The
main concern during the upcoming period will be the possible
development of isolated thunderstorms beginning tomorrow morning
and lasting throughout the day. There`s not enough confidence at
this point to add specific timing groups for TS`s but instead went
with VCTS at all 4 TAF sites. Winds will be light and variable
overnight before prevailing from the southeast at 3-6kts tomorrow.

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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