Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 242148
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
348 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms are possible across all of the Midsouth this
afternoon into tonight. There is an enhanced risk of severe
weather including the potential for wind, tornadoes, and hail. Heavy
rain is also a threat adding to the already saturated soils. The
flood watch will remain in effect through tonight for much of the
Midsouth. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this afternoon into tonight ahead of an approaching cold
front. The frontal boundary should be southeast of the forecast
area by late tonight.

The front will become stationary north of the gulf coast Sunday
and Sunday night while an area of rain north of the boundary moves
into across north Mississippi. The rain chance will continue over
that area into Sunday night before moving to the east.

Another complex system will provide a chance of flooding rain and
possible severe weather around the middle of the week.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR cigs prevail across the Mid-South with a cluster of SHRAs
and TSRAs across the western half of the Mid-South. The cluster
of SHRAs and TSRAs will move across eastern AR and NW TN including
KJBR this afternoon. A line of strong to severe storms will
organize along a cold front this afternoon and sweep west this
evening with ocnl IFR cigs/vsbys and gusty winds reaching KJBR
around 25/22z...KMEM at 25/01z...KMKL at 25/02z and KTUP at
25/04z. Some post frontal rain will follow the frontal passage
then VFR conditions will return by 25/06z at KJBR spreading east
to KTUP by 25/12z.

South winds 15-20kts with higher gusts this afternoon ahead of the
front shifting to WSW as the line moves through this evening and
remaining gusty. Winds will continue to veer to the north and
diminish through Sunday morning.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-
     Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for Alcorn-Benton MS-Coahoma-
     DeSoto-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tippah-Tunica.

TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
     Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-Hardin-
     Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-McNairy-
     Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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