Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 020447
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 832 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO SCALE BACK POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF
COAST EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS
PROVIDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID WEATHER.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS
TRIGGERED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A DECAYED STATE. PLAN TO CARRY LOW END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BORDER...QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
POPS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CUMULUS FIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDAFTERNOON...WITH DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS MORNING/S GRAVITY WAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARED TO BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MCS OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
LATER TONIGHT...EVOLVING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST OK / SOUTHEAST KS.

SOUTHERN REMNANTS OF THE MCS MAY DROP INTO NORTHEAST AR/THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z/01 NAM
AND ECMWF WERE DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR TUESDAY...CAPPING MOST DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE
TROF MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT 20 POPS FOR NORTH
MS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...UNDER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. LOWER/MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...BUT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH...IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY ARRIVING TO THE MID
AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING BETTER AREAWIDE CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWED BY
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POTENTIAL STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER ON STATION WILL BE AT JBR AND MKL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 6-10 KTS...WITH MORE VARIABILITY AND HIGHER GUSTS
DURING CONVECTION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE. LOWER CIGS/VIS VERY
POSSIBLE AT THE SITES JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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