Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

A progressive upper level pattern will prevail through the
upcoming week. With relatively good model agreement and interrun
consistency, few changes were made from earlier forecasts.

Upper level ridging will displace northwest flow aloft tonight.
With light surface winds and dissipating clouds, the dry airmass
should easily cool into the 30s, with some 20s not out of the
question over west TN. Low level return flow will likely commence
in the predawn hours west of the MS River. By midafternoon
Tuesday, gusty south winds should prevail at sub-advisory level
wind speeds along and west of the MS River.

Recent GFS/ECMWF model runs have maintained slight rain chances
south of I-40 Wednesday, ahead of a Pacific cold frontal passage.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through late week under
west/northwest flow aloft.

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models depict a deep longwave trof dropping
into the eastern U.S. on Sunday. Fairly significant midlevel
height falls may aid post frontal rain or snow showers Sunday
afternoon. It will feel a little more winter-like, with Sunday
afternoon wind chills in the 30s. The upper level longwave trof
will exit quickly, replaced by zonal flow and a return to seasonal
temps early next week.



18Z TAF Set

Patchy Stratus is creating variable cigs as it shifts gradually
South and East. North wind is increasing...generally 10-15kt with
gusts up to 25kt. Winds should diminish overnight...and shift from
the east to Southeast. Patchy fog is expected overnight...vis
should be in the 3-5sm range after midnight through sunrise. VFR
conditions are expected tomorrow morning at all sites.




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