Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
904 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017


Surface high pressure settling across the Mid-South this
evening. 9PM temps are within a degree or so of forecast,
except at KMEM where temp is a few degrees warmer. Expect
KMEM temp to drop more quickly once wind speed decreases.
No changes planned to current forecast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017/


Currently...A 1020 mb surface high pressure centered over the
Ohio Valley is resulting in a comfortable summer day across the
Mid-South. Temps are in the 80 to 85 degree range with dewpoints
in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tonight through Wednesday night...Surface high pressure will
shift east off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. Expect clear
skies tonight with relatively cool temps from the upper 50s along
the TN River to the mid 60s in the Delta region. Southerly winds
will return on Wednesday and humidity level will start to rise a
bit though it will still be quite comfortable. Much milder temps
expected Wednesday night under light southerly flow. Some low
clouds could move into north Mississippi toward sunrise.

Thursday and Friday...Weak zonal flow aloft will prevail across
the region while southerly low level flow continues to bring
moisture north. Expect dewpoints to be back around 70 on Thursday
and the lower 70s by Friday. As the airmass becomes more moist and
unstable expect afternoon and evening convection to start up
Thursday and especially Friday. Highs will be in the 80s with
lows in the lower 70s.

Friday night to Monday...A cold front will press south toward the
area Friday night and Saturday while a broad mid level trough
moves across the Mississippi Valley. This period probably
represents the best chance of showers and thunderstorms during
the next 7 days. Weak zonal flow is expected Sunday through
Tuesday with several weak upper level disturbances moving over a
warm and unstable airmass. As a result chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue. Temperatures will climb to about
normal by Tuesday. There are some hints that upper ridging may
start to dominate the weather next week which could result in
hotter temps toward the middle and end of next week.


00Z TAFs

VFR conditions expected to prevail at TAF sites through the
period. Light winds will increase to south winds between 7-12 kts
at sites late Wednesday morning with a few gusts to 18-20 kts at




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