Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 240202
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
902 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Skies are partly cloudy across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. A few isolated
thunderstorms remaining over portions of the forecast area and
are slowly diminishing. It appears that most of the activity will
be gone by midnight with a isolated thunderstorm or two possible
over southern sections of the forecast area overnight. Will update
forecast to adjust pops for overnight period.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/
After coordination with JAN have dropped the Heat Advisory for
northeast Mississippi. This region of the Midsouth will also
remain below criteria tomorrow as well.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/
Currently MCV was centered over southwest Tennessee creating
plenty of cloud cover and scattered convection that has been
ongoing since last night....however latest satellite trends show
cloud cover waning quickly. The only locations in the Midsouth
reaching the Heat Advisory criteria has been northeast Arkansas
and the Bootheel of Missouri...elsewhere a brief break has been
granted. The unfortunate dilemma is that though some parts of the
advisory will not verify today...the heat will continue tomorrow
for not only in our CWA but for surrounding areas...so have
decided to leave the current advisory in place to avoid confusion.
Remainder of the weekend...short term models suggest rain cooled
area under the MCV will begin to modify quickly...lighting up in
the 4-8pm time frame...and at least some coverage continuing
through the night. This same area could also see greater coverage
tomorrow...so have increased pops for this period. Overall heat
indices will likely top out in the 105-109F on Sunday...with the
exception of far northeast Mississippi. A few storms will still
run the risk for strong wind gusts and localized flash flooding.
Monday through Wednesday...the eastern side of the upper ridge
will remain dirty in nature with a continued chance for
daily convection...though nocturnal activity appears to be more
isolated. Daytime heating along remnant outflow boundaries will
serve as triggers...with a few strong cells. As of this time the
highest heat will begin retrograding west...with most of the CWA
heat indices topping out below 105F. The only question will be
western portions of the Midsouth on Monday.
Extended period...long range forecasts from the GFS and EURO
agree that low amplitude troughing will swing across the Midwest
and Ohio Valley. Energy carving out this trough will send a weak
cold front south to near the MO/AR and KY/TN borders Thursday
night. This boundary will provide for an additional threat for
storms and potentially a better chance for organized severe
weather next weekend. Temperatures will be close to average if
not a couple of degrees below across the north due to cloud
cover. Not anticipating heat headlines later for next weekend.
.AVIATION...00z TAF Set
Based on current radar and satellite imagery...removed TS from
all sites. Short range guidance tracks all ongoing convection to
the south...keeping it away from any TAF sites. Will monitor radar
closely and Amend if needed...but feel like this is the best
course of action. Winds will be light and variable
tonight...generally from the south around 5kt tomorrow. Additional
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday tomorrow...likely
impacting all sites.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Clay-Craighead-
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Benton MS-Coahoma-DeSoto-
TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-Carroll-