Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 041744 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80`S. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY IT WILL BE A DRY AND HOT
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE
WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH DAY WITH SEASONABLY HIGH
HUMIDITY THAT WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BETWEEN 100
AND 104 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN WARM WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CUT OFF ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS ONGOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

LIGHT WINDS AND HUMID SUBTROPICAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF MKL-TUP. THOSE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE
PATCHY GROUND FOG PRIOR TOWARD SUNRISE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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