Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 210429
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO
PLACED A VCTS THERE FROM 21/21Z - 22/01Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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