Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 180804
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL TO
WEAKENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYS IN THE GULF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYS MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. CLOUDS FROM THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE DEEP TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. ENHANCING THE SPREAD OF RAIN INTO OUR
AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS RANGING 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...DEEP TROF MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST REGION
WILL CUT OFF THEN MOVE THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS WILL SET UP A MAINLY CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SFC LOW TRACKS ENE TO THE
S.

WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SAT AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS WITH LIKELY NRN TIER. BEST CVRG WILL BE IN MORN WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING A BIT LATE ESPCLY INLAND. CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60 TO 65. THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP ACROSS THE N AND NW TIER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE CHC TO GOOD CHC CST TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC
OR NO CHC DEEP INLAND SUNDAY. HAVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM
LOW/MID 60S CST WHERE WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TO UPR 60S INLAND.

MODEL AGREE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AT MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS MORE PRECIP WITH THE FROPA LATE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL MODEL
TRENDS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT. DRY IN WAKE OF FRONT MID WEEK WITH
TEMPS A BIT COOLER WED AS UPR TRF CROSSES.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST TAF SITES BUT INCREASING
STRATUS CLOUDS. MODELS ALL HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CEILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR THEN IMPROVING
SLOWLY TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES (EWN/OAJ)LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE ISO
AND PGV REMAINING DRY. NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY REMAINING
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD RAIN SAT WITH REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES LIKELY IN IFR RANGE MOST OF THE DAY. LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL CONT ALONG THE CST THRU SUNDAY WITH CONT REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES...OVER THE INLAND SITES WILL SEE SOME GRAD
DRYING SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS LATE. MAINLY VFR
EXPECT MON HOWEVER WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE NEAR CST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SW FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH VFR EXPECTED WITH LIMITED
PRECIP CHCS THRU THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM FRI...LATEST BUOY OBS...WINDS NE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH SEAS 7-10 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS...SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT.

BOTH LOCAL MODEL AND WW3 REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING...BUT WILL REMAIN IN SCA CRITERIA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
6 TO 7 FT BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM NORTHEAST AT
15-20 KNOTS AS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF STATES.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY. LOW PRES
WILL MOVE OFF THE CST TO OUR SOUTH SAT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ENE THRU
MON. COMBO OF THE LOW TO THE S AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP
GRDNT TIGHT ALONG THE CST ESPCLY LATE SAT THRU SUN WITH NE WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED...COULD FLIRT WITH GALES AT TIMES OUTER
CNTRL WTRS. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E AND THE HIGH WEAKENS WINDS
WILL GRAD SUBSIDE MON AND BECOME LIGHT MON NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH
CROSSES. WINDS WILL GRAD BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KTS TUE AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT. THE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT
OVER THE OUTER WTRS LATER SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCA FINALLY ENDING ALL WTRS
BY 12Z TUE. SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...MAY HAVE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SAT
THRU SUNDAY AS THE INCREASING AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW BUILDS LARGE
SEAS. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER BANKS FROM HATTERAS
NORTH. THE PERSISTENT POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF







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