Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 211628
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1228 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will stall and dissipate near the
southern sections today. High pressure will extend into the
area from the northwest Friday through the weekend. Hurricane
Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...Raised temps a bit and slightly lower
pops SS tier. Limited clouds so far and most spots mid/upr 80s
already so raised max temps to near 90 inland. Models differ on
how much convection wl develop SW tier this aftn and given
uncertainty lowered a bit to cap at 30 percent.

Prev disc...Patchy fog continues and is mainly on the light
side. The exception is across the northern Outer Banks and
mainland Dare counties, where VSBYS have dropped below 1 mile at
times. A rogue thunderstorm north of Greenville quickly showed
a good core aloft about 30 minutes ago with hail likely, but is
now in the process of falling apart. Aside from an isolated
storm near here, most of this morning will be dry. Toward 18Z hi
resolution guidance matches up well with our previous forecast
of scattered thunderstorms re-developing. This will be most
likely along the sea breeze and especially near or on a line
from Morehead City to New Bern to Greenville, south and west.
SPC keeps our area in general thunder and see no reason to
expect more than garden variety thunderstorms through late
today. Highs will once again be above average with upper 80s
inland, about 6 degrees warmer than typical late September
highs. It will be cooler near the beaches. This will be most
pronounced over the Outer Banks with a cooler northeast wind
holding temps in the lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Any thunderstorms early this evening
should die down rather quickly. I did leave a slight chance
mention in through midnight over the far southwest based on what
happened last night, and continued good model agreement that an
isolated storm may persist in the areas just mentioned. With
lows dropping back into the 60s again, patchy fog will be
possible especially in areas that see rain later today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 am Thu...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will extend down across the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Maria. Eastern NC residents and
interested parties should continue to monitor the latest
official forecasts from NHC.

Friday through Saturday night...Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north through the
weekend, as Jose gradually weakens and meanders off the NE and
Mid-Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level
thickness values support temps near to slightly above normal
through the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Sunday through Wednesday...Hurricane Maria is currently
forecast to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week.
Eventual track will be determined by several factors including
the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. It is
still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC,
which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast
it gets. Regardless of the exact track, rough surf and
dangerous rip currents are likely this weekend into next week,
as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds,
minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also
possible.

Have introduced rain chances into the forecast beginning along
the Outer Banks and adjacent coastal waters Sunday. Then, slight
chance to chance PoPs gradually spread into the forecast area
from the east Sunday night through early next week as Maria
passes by off the coast. Rain chances then decrease Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the system moves away.

Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC on Hurricane
Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Friday/...
As of 920 AM Thursday...Mainly VFR through early evening.
Scattered thunderstorms possible all terminals between 18Z and
22Z. Brief MVFR vsbys possible in heavier showers. After 09Z
tonight fog is possible once again, especially where we see rain
today. For now went with a MVFR forecast but IFR is a
possibility again especially if we see some rain today.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 am Thu...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thu/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...Delayed return of 6 foot seas a bit
however with guidance showing them back portions outer central
waters by evening so will maintain current SCA.

Prev disc...Seas running 4 to 5 feet and the small craft
advisory has been allowed to expire north of Oregon Inlet as
planned. Marginal seas with near small craft conditions continue
through this afternoon across the central waters from Oregon
Inlet south to Ocracoke Inlet. Could see a few hours of below
small craft conditions later today but not a long enough period
to change any headlines, before seas builds again toward 6-7
feet after midnight tonight. Winds north to northeast 5 to 10
knots through the period.

Long Term /Fri through Mon/...
As of 3 am Thu...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will build down into the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and
next week. Mariners and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC.

N/NE winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 5-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt
Sun and Mon. NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated
seas lingering across the central waters through the entire
period. Will likely start seeing long period southeast swell
build from distant Hurricane Maria Fri into early next week
across all the waters. Small craft seas likely to redevelop by
Fri evening in the waters south of Ocracoke and continue into
next week, with double digit seas by Sunday and Monday. Too soon
to determine specific impacts from Maria, but dangerous seas
expected and strong N/NW winds will be possible. Large SE swells
expected to build, Wavewatch currently showing swells 15-20
ft/15 seconds. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents are likely.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...RF/EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...RF/EH/HSA
MARINE...RF/EH/HSA


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