Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260837
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
437 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass to the south through tonight. Low
pressure will move across to the north late Saturday through
Monday, with a cold front pushing through the area Tuesday. The
front will stall south of the area Wednesday and return north
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 am Fri...Broad upper trof to the northeast lifts out
today with low-level ridge building in from the west. Except for
possibly a few high-based CU this afternoon, skies will be
mostly clear. Pressure gradient not as tight as yesterday, but
still breezy with west winds 10-20 mph. Highs will reach the
lower to mid 80s throughout.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 am Fri...Low-level ridge axis flattens out across the
area overnight. The pressure gradient will loosen allowing winds
to diminish to less than 10 mph under clear skies. Lows will be
in the mid 60s coastal plain to 65-70 south coast and Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Low confidence forecast for precip timing
most of period as scattered convective coverage will be possible
for all but Wednesday. Zonal flow between slow-moving upper low
to north and upper ridge to S and SE will produce periods of
short wave energy across area every 12-24 hours and lead to
meandering frontal boundary across area Sunday-Tuesday. Front
will stall south of area Wednesday but then lift back north
Thursday.

Saturday through Saturday night...Short wave energy forecast to
produce weak surface low along front stalled across VA by
Saturday evening. Low will move across near VA/NC line Saturday
night with models indicating just a slight chance of convective
development northern sections Saturday afternoon, but then
scattered coverage possible for mainly northern sections
Saturday night with upstream activity moving E-SE. 0-6 KM shear
of 40-50 KT will be supportive some a few strong to severe
storms per SPC day 2 Marginal threat for northern sections.
Westerly flow and thicknesses rising to around 1410 meters
support highs around 90 inland with 80s beaches. Lows mainly
68-72.

Sunday through Tuesday night...Periods of short wave energy
will result in areas of low pressure moving across north of area
Sunday-Monday with frontal boundary finally pushing through area
late Tuesday. Convective activity will be most likely during
typical afternoon/evening hours but may persist overnight with
continuing short wave activity, thus will continue chance POPs
through the night during period. Models indicate 0-6 KM shear
even stronger on Sunday afternoon/evening, thus at least a
marginal severe threat for inland sections. Isolated severe will
be possible rest of period as well. Highs near 90 inland again
Sunday and Monday, then a few degrees cooler Tuesday. Lows
around 70 Sunday night and Monday night, then 65-70 Tuesday
night.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Weak ridging will build in
from the west shunting any precipitation to near or just off the
coast. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler with highs
mid 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s.

Thursday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms return,
especially later in the day, as stalled front lifts back north.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 1 am Fri...VFR SKC through the TAF period. Surface winds
will be west today and tonight, 10-20 knots today diminishing to
less than 10 knots tonight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/
As of 330 AM Friday...VFR conditions are expected Saturday with
weak mid-level ridging in place. Occasional MVFR ceilings and
vsbys will then be possible starting Saturday night and
continuing into Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary stalls over
the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/
As of 3 am Fri...Low level ridging will build into the area
from the west today and tonight. The pressure gradient will
begin to loosen, allowing winds to diminish through the period.
Made minor adjustments to ending time of Small Craft Advisories
for the sounds, and the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet and
south of Ocracoke, ending them earlier.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/
As of 330 AM Friday...Latest guidance is indicating SW winds
increasing back to around 15 KT Saturday afternoon into Sunday
with low pressure moving across just to north. Winds diminish to
mainly less than 15 KT rest of period with some weak frontal
intrusions resulting in shifting winds over northern waters
Sunday night into Tuesday, with front pushing through all waters
Tuesday night.

Seas will build to 3-5 feet Saturday night, then mainly 2-4 feet
rest of period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ130-
     131-135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA



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