Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 312029
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...THIS MORNINGS WEAK COASTAL LOW HAS FINALLY
MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO PULL ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WELL AWAY
FROM THE NC COAST. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ONLY SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS NOT IMPACTING TEMPS THAT
HAVE BUILD INTO THE MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
MIDWESTERN STATES THAT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. EASTERN NC WILL RESIDE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT AS
NOTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING BELOW HALF AN
INCH. THE OVERALL DRY AIRMASS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST. STRONG
LIFT WILL BE PRESENT SO MAINTAINED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE DAY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL SUITE
SUGGEST SOME BANDED PRECIP MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70
TO THE OUTER BANKS...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN WITH
CONFIDENCE BEYOND 6-12 HOURS. CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IS AROUND A HALF INCH INLAND TO AN INCH ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST AND NEARLY 1.50 INCHES ALONG THE OBX. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE NC COAST
BETWEEN 18-00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE STRONG UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NC. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS AND COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR TYRRELL...CARTERET...MAINLAND AND OUTER BANKS DARE AND
HYDE COUNTIES. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WELL OFF THE NC COAST SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S INLAND TO
LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM FRIDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD
AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA SUNDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRES
MOVING IN FROM NW AS DEEPENING SFC LOW RACES OUT TO NE. COLD AIR SCU
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS AREA DURING THE DAY...BUT LOW LVL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN LOW-MID 50S WITH FULL
INSOLATION. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL BUILD OVER AREA SUN NIGHT WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE INLAND OF COAST...ALLOWING MAX
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS AROUND 32 LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND W
OF HWY 17...AND FREEZE WATCH/WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FCST UPDATES.

HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS.

ECMWF AND GFS DO DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH NEXT SHRT WV TROF LATE WEEK AS
GFS IS SLOWER. BOTH MODELS INDICATE ASSCTD FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH DEEPER MSTR DRYING UP COMING ACROSS MTNS...AND LOWERED POPS TO
ONLY 20% FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ADDED VCSH FOR SHOWERS
NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUN AFTN AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM FRIDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE N/NE
WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT DIAMOND SHOALS
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS HAVE RESPONDED BY BUILDING TO 6 FT FOR THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS AS NOTED BY THE ONSLOW BAY BUOY
41036 AND DIAMOND SHOALS BUOY 41025. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
MOVING THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS WELL.

A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NC COAST
SATURDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS FOR MOST WATERS WITH STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET SOUTH TO OCRACOKE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR
ALL EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL
LEG AS WINDS WILL GUST 50-55 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS 15-20 FT SEAS
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE SUNDAY WITH SEAS LINGERING AT SCA LEVELS
INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM...ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STRONG CAA WILL
CONTINUE SUN MORNING...WITH GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW GALES
SOUNDS AND SRN WATERS SUN AFTN. SFC HIGH CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
S OF AREA MON ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO W-SW WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
15 KT INTO WED.

WENT WITH HIGHER NWPS OVER WW3 FOR SEAS WITH COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
MIX WELL OVER WARMER WATERS...RESULTING IN HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS
PEAKING 15-20 FT LATE SUN NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WILL SUBSIDE
BUT SOME 6 FT HEIGHTS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN WATERS INTO MON
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO AROUND 2 FT
TUE-WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AS STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWN-
EAST CARTERET COUNTY WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IF STRONG
GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ046-047-081-095.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-156-158.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC




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