Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011243
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
843 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 845 AM TUE...LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITING THE COASTAL WATERS
SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING FOR THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. FOG IS
GONE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SITES SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISC..LOW STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING AS
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND BNDRY LAYER WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT. LIGHT NW TO W FLOW ENSUES BY AFTERNOON INLAND...WHILE
NEAR THE COAST LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISO SHOWER OR STORM... SO HAVE
CONFINED 20 POPS TO THE SOUND COUNTIES AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
CRYSTAL COAST. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...ANY ISO PRECIP DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING
BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS BECOME CALM ONCE AGAIN...AND WITH SIMILAR
SETUP...FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN GRIDS. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 70-74 DEGREE
RANGE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. FORCING IS LIMITED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE BUT CUD SET OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION INLAND WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WED AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THRU WED
NIGHT GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OFFSHORE. THURSDAY
LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH SUBSIDENT WEAK NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER WAVE, BUT MAY AGAIN SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SFC
HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF INLAND THERMAL TROF OR INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE. A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROF BUT STRONGER SFC REFLECTION COLD
FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL HOLD HIGHEST POPS AT LOW CHANCE
FOR NOW GIVEN DIFFICULTY IN TIMING ISSUES THRU FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW
90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S COAST WED AND THU. LIKELY A FEW DEGREES
COOLER FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SFC FRONT DURING THE DAY.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MULTILAYER RIDGE TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A WEAK UPPER
TROF OR UPPER LOW TO FORM OVER THE SE STATES WITH INVERTED SFC TROF
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOST ASSOCD PRECIP
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. LATER MODEL RUNS SHUD HELP TO REFINE DETAILS IN
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 845 AM TUE...IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS SLOW TO ERODE OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT W TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING.
ONLY AN ISO SHOWER OR STORM...BEST CHANCES AROUND KEWN...BUT EVEN
HERE CHANCE IS TOO SLIM TO MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAFS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME CALM...AND WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NEAR 0 EXPECT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FG/BR TO
DEVELOP AFER AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD WITH
MAINLY ISOLD CONVECTION EACH DAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 845 AM TUE...LAST OF THE SHOWERS ABOUT TO EXIT THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO REMOVE MENTION.
NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREV DISC...QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS AS LIGHT AND VAR WINDS
LESS THAN 5 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4
FEET...HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. FOR TODAY...WEAK LOW PULLS
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS WITH LIGHT N TO E WINDS ON THE NORTHERN
WATERS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN WATERS WINDS BECOME SW AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS DUE TO HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...OVERALL BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN FEATURE.
LOOSE GRADINNT WILL RESULT IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
ON FRIDAY AND SAT WITH NE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY WITH SEAS
REACHING 4-5 FT OUTER WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/BTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/BTC



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