Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 291154
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
654 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORT WAVE IN THE BROAD SW FLOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL CROSS
THE REGION TODAY. NNE WIND SHIFT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF
COLDER AIR/SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. STEADIER ANA-TYPE PRECIPITATION HAS LINED UP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT BUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. WHILE PRECIP MAY INITIALLY BE SPOTTY OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND STEADIER
AS POSTFRONTAL LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS BY LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY. OVERALL EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.

MAX TEMPS LIKELY OCCUR EARLY TODAY AS STEADIER PRECIP AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW CONSPIRE TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
LOCKED IN ONSHORE FLOW/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER NEAR ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT SUGGESTS LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MAY ALSO
SEE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FOG PER WEAK FORCING AS
MID LEVELS SLOWLY DRY OUT. CLOUDS/MIXING WILL HOLD TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 40S, COOLEST DEEP INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TUES WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WSW. A STRONG POST FRONTAL
INVERSION WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TUES AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE CONTINUING TO BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TUES AFTERNOON
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS TUES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND
TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. WED WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THEN WILL SEE
THE AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATE THURS AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S. LOWS WED AND THURS IN THE UPR 20S INLAND TO 30S COASTAL
SECTIONS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO HOLD MIN TEMPS TO
THE 30S INLAND AND 40S COAST FRI.

00Z MODELS HAVE DIVERGED QUITE A BIT WITH TIMING...STRENGTH AND
PATH OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND GULF STATES WHICH LIFTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND. AS SUCH...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY
AND BEYOND WITH THIS PACKAGE...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSER TO A NOW FASTER
AND WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. KEPT CHANCE POPS SAT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT DUE TO MODEL SPREAD. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY AS WAA/INCREASED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILD MAX TEMPS
INTO THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THE AREA THIS MORNING. FLYING CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS POST
FRONTAL MOIST NE FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA. IFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGS IMPROVING VSBY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
LOW, POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO LIFR CATEGORY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...IFR/LIFR STRATUS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE
INTO MIDDAY TUES BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND THURS THEN
SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT DROPS THRU THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING SETTING
UP POST FRONTAL MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE FLOW THRU THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS/SEAS STEADILY INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS INTO EARLY TUES. WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST TUES ALLOWING
N/NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KT THROUGH TUES EVENING. USED A
BLEND OF NWPS AND WAVEWATCH III FOR SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT NORTH OF
OCRACOKE AND 3-6 FT SOUTH TUES/TUES NIGHT. CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND...THOUGH IF
TRENDS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THEN THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
MAY BE ADDED. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUES NIGHT
AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY AND OFF THE NC COAST FRIDAY. N WINDS
AT OR BELOW 15 KT WED BECOMES WESTERLY THURS. DETAILS IN THE
FORECAST BECOME UNCERTAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS ARE NOT IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE WEST BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SEAS PROGGED TO SUBSIDE TO 2-5
FT WED AND 1-3 FT THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING AT TAR RIVER AT GREENVILLE, CONTENTNEA CREEK AT
HOOKERTON AND NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEE FLSMHX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...CGG/BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...BTC






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