Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 170136
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM TUE...CLOUDS INCREASING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE AREA MOVING EAST. TIMING BRINGS THEM INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST COVERS THIS...EXCEPT WILL UP THE POPS IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS ALONG IT OVER THE OUTER BANKS AREA. BOUNDARY SLOW TO
MOVE AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE SOUTH OF AREA BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND
UPR 60S TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 627 PM TUE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA TAFS THIS LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS TO AROUND
KINSTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM TONIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THEM IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ANY
SHOWERS. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON TIMING OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TAFS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LOOSE SURFACE
GRADIENT. AREAS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND MAY
HAVE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THEM AS PROBABILITY IS LOW.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM TUE...FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY SUNRISE.

PREV DISC...AS OF 639 PM TUE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FEET.
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH WIND BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE. MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL GO ON THE LOWER RANGE.

LONG PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD SHOWING
UP IN THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER SEAS REMAIN AT 2 FEET.
WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. WILL AGAIN BACK UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TIL SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SELY SWELL. WIND
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...CGG/JAC
MARINE...CGG/CQD/JAC









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