Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 122137
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
437 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OF NC ON
TUESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM FRIDAY...1014 MB LOW PRES CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NE AND DEEPEN OVERNIGHT. WINTRY
PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BUT BEGINNING TO IT
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH DRYING IN THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE. EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO PULL OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING ALL AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. KMHX CC
DOING A GREAT JOB SHOWING THE MELTING LAYER WITH SNOW MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 264 AND A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS SEEING RAIN BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX EARLY THIS EVENING. AN
ARCTIC FRONT PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S
INLAND TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 420 PM FRIDAY...TIGHT PRES GRADIETNS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING A VERY COLD AND DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 30S SOUTHERN AREAS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS COVERING THE
GROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -15 TO -20C BY
SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING INTO THE 1225-1240M
RANGE...RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME
RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE
SUN. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD LOWS. COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO AROUND
20...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUN MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 27-32
DEGREES SUNDAY.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHILE SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AS IN-SITU WEDGING OCCURS MON
MORNING. CMC/GFS/NAM INDICATE SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW BREAKING OUT MON
MORNING ACROSS THE NW TIER OF THE FA BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE
LIFTS NORTH DUE TO STRENGTHENING SW LLJ. ECM CONTINUES MAINLY
DRY...AND SO THEREFORE HAVE NOT RAISED POPS BEYOND CHANCE MON
MORNING. SOME IMPACTS COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR
THOSE AREAS BEFORE WARMING OCCURS LATER IN THE MORNING AND THE
WEDGE BREAKS DOWN. SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED MON NIGHT INTO TUE. E NC IS IN FAVORED RRQ OF
JET AND WITH DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE TRACKING ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT...THE ENTIRE AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. DYNAMICS BECOME EXTREMELY STRONG WITH PLENTY
OF DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPING BY MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND
BACKED SFC WINDS TO SSE COULD PRESENT AN ISO TORNADO THREAT.
MESOSCALE/THERMODYNAMIC DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED...THOUGH
SYNOPTIC SETUP DOES FAVOR A STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM SETUP ACROSS E
NC. WITH THE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING MON NIGHT INTO TUE...HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT
MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN AS GOM WIDE OPEN WITH PWATS INC TO 1.5 IN
OR HIGHER. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING
WITH HEAVY RAIN ENDING AS EARLY AS MID DAY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK AS MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW/COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HEIGHTS NEAR CLIMO MEAN
FOR MID FEB. HIGHS ON WED AND THUR IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S
NORTHEAST ZONES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. FRIDAY MAY SEE
A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE CLIMO AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD WITH
ZONAL FLOW ENSUING AND MAX T`S POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE COAST AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY...THEN EXITING TO THE NE TONIGHT. WITH COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE...HAVE OBSERVED A WINTRY MIX AT EWN/OAJ WITH ISO/PGV MORE
RECENTLY OBSERVING SNOW THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT EWN/OAJ TO
BE MAINLY RAIN (PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN) WITH THE TEMP HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING. FURTHER INLAND TAF SITES WILL BE WITHIN THE
SNOW/SLEET MIX. VSBYS AND CIGS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE MVFR/IFR
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS DROPPING BRIEFLY TO
LIFR...PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR AND
LACK OF STRONG CAA AS LOW MOVES TO NE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUB-
VFR VSBYS AND CIGS THROUGH EVENING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT DURING PERIOD...NE TODAY
BECOMING W-NW TONIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT WINTRY MIX MONDAY
MORNING AT KISO AND KPGV BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AFTER AROUND
NOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AND SKC LATE TUE
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL LIFT NE
AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WHILE ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KT THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME NW AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...UP TO
40 KT...LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISSUED A GALE
WARNING FOR THOSE MARINE ZONES. WINDS MAINLY 20-30 KT ACROSS THE
SOUNDS AND SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. USED A BLEND OF NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
FOR SEAS AS NWPS TYPICALLY OVERDONE IN NW FLOW EVENTS. EXPECT SEAS
TO BUILD TO 5-8 NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY AND 4-7 FT SOUTH

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 15-25 KT EXPECTED WITH SEAS
REMAINING ABOVE 6 FEET. RETAINED FREEZING SPRAY MENTIONED AS GUSTY
NW WINDS AND TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SUN
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER REPRIEVE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON
MONDAY. AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW MONDAY...THEN LIKELY TRACK INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO REACH GALE AT LEAST IN GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WATERS AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KT...PEAKING EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS BUILD TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
TURN WSW BEHIND THE LOW AND DIMINISH TO 15-25 KT TUE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING...AND HIGH SEAS ABOVE 6 FEET CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ044-
     079-090>093-098.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/LEP
MARINE...RF/SK/TL
CLIMATE...MHX


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