Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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705
FXUS62 KMHX 221326
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND PROVIDE DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...LATEST MHX SOUNDING SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE BELOW 600 MB AND THIS IS LEADING TO A BAND OF CLOUDS
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST AT MID-MORNING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES WITH A NORTHERLY
BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...DRY AND COOL CONDS CONT TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRES SETTLES ACRS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND
TO THE MID AND UPR 50S COASTAL SXNS. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RE-BUILDING FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST FOR
LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA MOST OF PERIOD.

SAT-SUN...SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM N SAT...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. PLEASANT TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BOTH DAYS WITH INLAND
HIGHS 75-80 SAT AND AROUND 80 SUNDAY WITH OBX 5-10 DEGS COOLER.

MON-THU...UPR RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SE AND MID ATLC COAST MONDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH REST OF WEEK...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE HIGH/LEE
THERMAL TROF SFC PATTERN. DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL WED-THU AND THEN JUST A SLIGHT CHC INLAND. MAIN
FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING TEMPS WITH HIGHS INLAND AROUND 90 TUE-
THU. HUMIDITY NOT TOO OPPRESSIVE YET WITH APPARENT TEMPS REACHING
MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 530 AM FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS WILL CONT FOR MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THROUGH ABT 14Z THEN EXIT TO THE E. ONCE CLOUDS SCT OUT OR
SHIFT OFFSHORE EXPECT VFR CONDS AS HIGH PRES AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...DRY/VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH
SURFACE FLOW SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SET TO EXPIRE AT 15Z
THIS MORNING. WINDS/SEAS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED ALTHOUGH DIAMOND
BUOY CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND 6 FEET AND WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACRS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT. HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACRS THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THEN HIGH PRES REBUILDS BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NLY 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.
ON-GOING N-NE COOL AIR SURGE AT 15-20 KT SAT MORNING WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY. GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS 10 KT OR LESS SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY SW
10-15 KT MON-TUE AS SFC HIGH EXTENDS OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE.

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SEAS WITH LATEST NWPS. HEIGHTS 4-5 FT OVER
NRN WATERS SAT MORNING...SUBSIDING TO AROUND 2 FT BY
SUNDAY...BUILDING BACK TO 2-3 FT TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/CTC/JBM



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