Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010211
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS A FRONT OFFSHORE BACKS TOWARD THE COAST ON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10 PM....MINOR CHANGES TO INIT CONDS. EXPECT MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO REMAIN DRY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHARPEN OVERNIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THE SE COAST.
SOME OF THE ASSOC PRECIP MAY ENCROACH ON SOUTHERN AND WRN AREAS
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO RAMP UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AS SFC BNDRY BACKS TO THE COAST IN
COMBINATION WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE
MOIST DEEPENING SW FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL INGREDIENT OF DIURNAL
SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHUD
REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALTHO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR EVEN HAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO
NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGESTIVE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS. CLOUDS/PRECIP HOLDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BE IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH
PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF/WPC QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES. WITH MUCH OF
EASTERN NC HAVING RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH PLACES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CRYSTAL COAST
AREAS AT 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SO FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND PSBL MVFR CONDITIONS SW AREAS.

OFFSHORE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO BACK TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT. ALSO
SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE DEVELOPING MOIST UPPER SW FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS (AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS) ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE REGIME
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM...MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE TO INCR E WINDS TO 15-20 KT
ACRS SRN COASTAL WATERS MAINLY S OF LOOKOUT WITH 3-4 FT SEAS.
OTRW...EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OFFSHORE AS
SFC FRONT BACKS UP TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT E/SE ON
FRIDAY CONTINUING AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE
2-4 FT RANGE THRU FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN FORM OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
15 KNOTS OR LESS...HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGESTING SLY WINDS
BRIEFLY SURGING TO AROUND 15-20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JAC/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/SK
MARINE...JAC/BTC/SK






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