Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280838
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
338 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...AREAS OF FOG...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF E CENTRAL FL. SOME FOG IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS VOLUSIA BUT ALL OTHER COUNTIES HAVE SOME
REPORTING SITES AT A 1/2 MILE OR LESS IN FOG SO WILL HOIST DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ALL AREAS THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH
INTO MID MORNING AS STRATUS DECK LIFTS AND DISSIPATES INTO LATE
MORNING. LOW LVL SSW/SW WINDS AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S WILL BE 2-5 DEGS OFF RECORD LEVELS.  MID LVL RIDGE
ACROSS SE FL IN THE 850-700 LAYER WILL KEEP MID LVLS FAIRLY DRY SO
SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE
BEACHES...LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL PEAK IN HEIGHT AT THE BEACHES
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

TONIGHT...LOW LVL SW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH STRATUS AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS. LOWS WILL BE MILD IN 60S.

MON-WED...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST INTO MID-WEEK AS MODELS
STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO FLATTEN OUT AND BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARDS AS A SPLIT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
MONDAY DAMPENS OUT CONSIDERABLY WITH THE RIDGE DEFLECTING ITS ENERGY
WELL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE TROUBLE GETTING PAST THE STOUT RIDGE
IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...AND INSTEAD LIMPS ANEMICALLY INTO THE
REGION TUES AND WED.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RATHER
UN-DECEMBER LIKE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S MON AND TUES. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS MINIMAL...AND WITHOUT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL COME WITH THE MINIMAL LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL MON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S THEN ONLY BE KNOCKED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TUE DUE
TO CLOUDINESS. THEN AS WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WED
BEHIND THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLING BUT READINGS WILL
STAY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

THURS-SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY THURS AS THE LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH SPILLING ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY BRIDGES IT...LEADING TO BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW. WHILE NORTHERN AREAS MAY DRY OUT A LITTLE MORE...HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER REALLY SCOURS OUT OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE
TREASURE COAST...ESPECIALLY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY.

MODELS KEEP LOW END POPS IN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE MENTION CONFINED TO THE WATERS AS LAND IMPACTS LOOKS TO
REMAIN MINIMAL BEYOND PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE.

SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL LOW LEFT BEHIND OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
KICKS OUT TO THE EAST AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH FRI AND
SAT....DRIVING A POTENT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND DEEP
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT PUSHING OUR FRONTAL TROUGH BACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER DYING FRONT
INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL AFFECT TERMINALS THRU 13Z. STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT FROM 14Z-16Z WITH VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SUN NIGHT MAINLY AFT 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SW/S WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY AND NEAR 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE MAINLY COMPRISED OF A ENE/NE LONG PERIOD SWELL TO 3-4 FT
NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TODAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT.

MON-TUES...SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AS RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES SOUTH OF REGION AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTH
FLORIDA. WINDS VEER WEST EARLY TUES AND THEN NORTHWEST TUES
AFTERNOON WITH FRONT DROPS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SPEEDS GENERALLY
LOOK TO BE 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3FT...WITH UP TO 4FT OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE CONUS WILL
VEER WINDS NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT INTO WED WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
15-20KT FLOW. MODELS SHOW COASTAL TROUGH KEEPING FLOW BACKED MORE
NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY BEFORE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS VEER
EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. SEAS BUILDING TO 3-4FT WITH UP TO 5FT OVER
THE GULF STREAM WITH NORTHEAST WIND SURGE INTO THURSDAY.

THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THU
WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL TROUGH KEEPING WINDS BACKED MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING NEAR SHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TODAY...     FCST
               RECORD     HIGH
DAYTONA BEACH  83/1988     81
ORLANDO        85/1916     83
MELBOURNE      87/1981     82
VERO BEACH     84/1981     82

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  80  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  83  63  81  65 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  82  66  82  67 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  82  65  82  64 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  81  62  80  64 /  10  10  10  20
SFB  82  65  82  65 /  10  10  10  20
ORL  82  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....MOSES






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