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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY NE ACROSS
THE ATLC WATERS AIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A UPR LVL S/W
TROUGH OFF THE FL WEST COAST. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
NIGHT THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO
BREVARD COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARD THE FL-GA BORDER TODAY
WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW LVL SW FLOW
NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE BREVARD COUNTY
COAST INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN COUNTIES WITH LOW LVL WSW FLOW ALLOWING SOME
LOWER PWAT AIR FROM NRN LAKE TO NRN VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FROM THE SRN INTERIOR/ERN ORANGE AND
SEMINOLE COUNTIES TOWARD THE COAST FROM SE VOLUSIA INTO BREVARD
WHERE LATE DAY SFC CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO 50 PCT IN THAT AREA...WELL ABOVE THE
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW GFS MOS POPS TODAY. COULD BE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPS AROUND -8 AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IF STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS AS THEY MOVE NE TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND SRN INTERIOR TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
FROM THE COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED RANGE POPS AT
30 PCT THERE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THURS...MOISTURE LEVELS CREEP UP A BIT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO N FL. AFTER SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TOWARD EAST
COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS VIA WEAK SW COMPONENT THROUGH STEERING
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 COAST AND LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRI-TUE...STILL AWAITING 00Z ECMWF AS OF THIS WRITING BUT TREND OF
GFS OVER THE WEEKEND INDICATES SELY FLOW COMPONENT STARTING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF BY FRIDAY AND BACKING MORE TO SE-E THIS WEEKEND.
MAY HAVE A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE SAT DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON FRI. HAVE MAINLY KEPT IN SCATTERED POPS
DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS AT NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS MAY NEED SOME TWEAKS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF INFLUENCE
WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 80S COAST AND NEAR 90/LOW 90S INTERIOR...OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT TEMPO SHRA/TSRA MLB VCNTY THRU AT LEAST 09Z...AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF NE-MOVING AFTERNOON STORMS WITH HIGHEST CHCS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTN FOR KISM/KMCO/KSFB AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
KMLB/KVRB AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

S/SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
SWAN AND WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEAS WITH 2-3 FT NEAR THE
COAST AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THUR-SUN...WINDS BACK FROM S-SW 10KT OR LESS THURS TOWARD E-SE AND
PICK UP MORE INTO 10-15KT RANGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHAVED BACK GUIDANCE VALUES TO INDICATE
THIS SINCE WNAWAVE AND SWAN CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  90  74 /  40  30  50  30
MCO  93  74  92  74 /  50  20  50  30
MLB  90  75  89  76 /  50  30  50  40
VRB  89  75  89  74 /  50  30  50  30
LEE  93  75  93  75 /  40  20  50  30
SFB  93  75  93  75 /  50  20  50  30
ORL  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  50  30
FPR  88  74  89  74 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....GLITTO