Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 310712
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...An Exceptionally Warm and Dry July Will End With Better Rain
Chances...

Today/Tonight...Increasing SE flow around periphery of Atlantic
high pressure ridge at surface teamed with an approaching
weak/inverted low/mid-lvl trough approaching from the Bahamas
today. The trough will serve to gather deep layer moisture and
precipitation opportunity for parched coastal locations from the
Cape south. Moisture will work its way across the south half of
the peninsula from the SE to the NW during the day. This will also
serve as the daily convective trend. Interestingly...mid-lvl temps
will also be few degrees cooler improving parcel instabilities.
Expect 30 to 40 percent POPS most places...except coastal locations
Cape northward. Earliest chances along the Treasure Coast then
spreading north and inland. The embedded ECSB will not be as
distinct. It will still be rather warm...but not overwhelmingly
hot as in recent days. Highest heat indices should peak around
102. Periods of area cloudiness and convective overturning will
help curb afternoon max temperatures in the L/90s most
places...except M/90s over parts of North Lake and Inland Volusia
Counties where rain chances are a bit lower. Troughing feature
pushes west across the peninsula overnight with ensuing partial
clearing/drying. Min temperatures in the M/U70s.

The Week Ahead...The western Atlc subtropical ridge will re-
establish wwd across central FL to the eastern Gulf during Mon.
This will bring reduced prospects for rain to most areas aside
from the far interior where large scale boundary interaction from
mid to late aftn will lead to a chc of thunder. Increasing onshore
flow Mon night into Tue will help increase layer moisture from
the S where passing tropical disturbance (AL97) through the Carib
will draw moisture north into central FL Tue. Rain chcs will
return to more seasonal norms Tue through midweek as winds
acquire a SE component and diurnal instability improves due to lack
of upr ridge. Daily forecasts will feature sct storms each day
with best cumulative rains inland from the immediate coast.
Seasonal temps can also be expected with highs in the L-M90s and
lows in the L-M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Higher convective chances for coastal sites KMLB southward
compared to previous days. Increasing SE winds will gather
moisture along the Treasure Coast KVRB-KFPR-KSUA by 12Z supporting
VCSH thru at least 18Z. Scattered SHRA/TSRA increasing north and
west toward inland sites for VCTS and local MVFR/IFR conditions
after 18Z thru sunset. VFR by 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...SE winds around the western periphery of the
Atlantic high pressure ridge will persist while a weak trough moves
out of the Bahamas and crosses the peninsula today. This will serve
to promote isolated to scattered showers and storms...at least from
the Cape southward. Coverage will diminish for the overnight into
Monday. Seas 2 feet today and 2-3 feet offshore tonight with S/SE
winds 10 knots today and temporarily 10-15 knots tonight.

Remainder of the Week...Favorable conditions for small craft are
forecast due to presence of high pressure in proximity to the
waters. Winds generally 10 kt or less and seas around 2 to 3 ft
nearshore and around 3 to 4 feet beyond 20NM are expected through
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  76  92  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  93  74  94  76 /  40  20  20  10
MLB  90  78  90  78 /  40  10  10  10
VRB  90  76  90  76 /  40  10  10  20
LEE  94  77  95  77 /  40  20  20  10
SFB  93  75  95  76 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  93  77  94  77 /  40  20  20  10
FPR  90  74  90  75 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sharp
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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