


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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746 FXUS62 KMLB 160520 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 70-80% through midweek as low pressure continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Cancelled the Flood Watch early at around 5pm EDT this afternoon, as the heaviest rainfall associated with Invest 93L had moved out of the area. Showers and storms have continued this evening, though rainfall amounts have not been high enough to maintain the watch. The forecast for tonight is a bit uncertain, as CAMs have struggled immensely with convection today. However, still expect showers and storms to diminish this evening overall, though a chance (~ 20-30%) will continue for the Treasure Coast overnight. Should showers or storms train over the same areas, minor flooding could result. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Currently-Tonight...Low level circulation of Invest 93L is pushing onshore north of Volusia County and remains disorganized. N/NE shear has kept persistent bands of rain and isolated storms S/SW of the center across areas near to north of a line from Orlando to the Cape. Some localized heavy rainfall totals have occurred with the heavier showers and storms, including up to 5-7 inches in northern Brevard County near Mims and Turnbull where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier today. As low shifts westward across FL into tonight, this persistent rainfall will also gradually transition west into this evening. Additional, scattered showers and storms will be possible farther southeast of the I-4 corridor with daytime heating through late afternoon/early evening. A Flood Watch continues through 8 PM from Brevard/Osceola counties northward through Lake and Volusia for the continued potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall totals up to 5-7 inches that may lead to isolated flash flooding. This activity will then diminish into this evening, with isolated onshore moving showers and possibly a storm or two along the coast from the Cape southward overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Thursday...As Invest 93L moves westward into the northeast Gulf, NHC is still giving the system a medium (40%) chance of tropical development into mid to late week as it moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Across east central FL, waves of deeper moisture (PW values up to 2-2.3") will lift northward across the area, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast (up to 70-80%). Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening, with greatest coverage focusing inland. A few stronger storms will be possible each day, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours leading to minor flooding. Hot and humid conditions are forecast each day. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak afternoon heat index values around 100-105F Wednesday and 102-107F Thursday. Friday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Tonight-Wednesday...An area of low pressure (Invest 93L) is pushing onshore across the northeast coast of FL and will continue westward through tonight before exiting into the NE Gulf Wednesday where it currently has a medium chance (40%) for tropical development into mid to late week. Poor boating conditions will continue into tonight, mainly over the offshore waters where S/SE winds will be up to 15-20 knots. Winds will then remain out of the S/SE around 10-15 knots into Wednesday. Seas will be around 2-3 feet for much of the period, except up to 4 feet offshore Volusia County into tonight. Lingering deep moisture across the area will continue development of at least scattered showers and storms over the waters, especially overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Thursday-Sunday...Subtropical ridge axis will dominate the weather pattern late week into this weekend. Winds will remain out of the southeast through late week and then S/SE into the weekend. Seas will continue to range around 2-3 feet for much of the period, with more normal shower and storm coverage forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions continue outside of convection. Though Invest 93L continues to pull away (W/NW) from ECFL, abundant moisture will stream across the area in its wake. Light SE/S flow continues thru early morning, with southerly flow dominating during the day on Wed. Wind speeds increasing to 8-12 kts areawide, and a little gustier across coastal TAF sites. A gradual return on this day to the normal sea breeze regime, though highest PoPs look to favor the interior and esp WCFL into late afternoon/evening. PoP potential highest along the coast during the morning and early afternoon. Too early for TEMPO groups, but do have some VCSH/VCTS at various locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 90 76 / 60 10 60 10 MCO 92 75 92 76 / 70 20 80 10 MLB 89 78 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 10 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 70 10 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 20 80 10 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Leahy AVIATION...Sedlock