Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 072000
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tonight...Shallow frontal boundary becoming stationary
across the southern peninsula. WSW flow above the surface will help
provide some lift over the boundary and may help a little light
overrunning precip to form and reach up into the far southern
sections late night. North and central sections of EC FL will again
have potential for late night fog development. Lows tonight will
range from the low 50s over far northern Lake/Volusia Counties to
mid 60s with more clouds over Martin County.

Thurs...Continued lift of the WSW flow component in the 850-700mb
layer over old frontal boundary to the south may help some mainly
light rain to spread a little farther north. Highest PoPs will be
across the southern Treasure Coast but low mentionable PoPs will
reach northward to around southern parts of Osceola/Brevard Cos.
High temperatures ranging from the lower 70s north to upper 70s
south.

Thu night...Deeper moisture will move in across srn sections with
mid level ascent behind the cold front that will have moved through
south FL. This should allow for some areas of light rain and showers
with mid level isentropic lift and some PVA aloft across the srn
half of the forecast area. Will continue chance POPs with dry
forecast for nrn Lake and Volusia counties. The pressure gradient
will tighten as high pressure builds into the Southeast with gusty
northerly winds along the coast and lows ranging from the upper
40s/lower 50s north to lower 60s across Martin county.

Friday...Increasing N/NNE low level flow will continue with a swath
of mid level cloudiness across srn sections transitioning southward
into late afternoon. Expect low rain chances to continue south of a
Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne line in the morning moving south into
late afternoon. Northerly winds, breezy at times, will keep highs
below normal, ranging from the lower 60s north to upper 60s to near
70 srn sections.

Friday night...Northerly flow will keep interior areas chilly with
lows into the 40s with mainly 50s from the Cape south along the
coast. Low level flow will veer from the NNE to NE with a slight
chance for onshore moving Atlantic showers for St Lucie/Martin
counties.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure near the Carolina coast Saturday
will move offshore into the Atlantic Sunday. NE low level winds Sat
will veer to ESE/SE by Sunday. Highs Sat in the upper 60s/lwr 70s
will warm to 75-80 by Sunday. A very dry airmass will linger above
H7 with low level moisture return from the Atlantic support isolated
Atlc showers some of which may move onshore along the coast by
Sunday before dissipating.

Extended...High pressure will move seaward off the US east coast
early next week. A weak frontal boundary will approach central FL
around Mon with attendant moisture increase producing a mentionable
but low rain chance esp near the coast and Atlantic waters.
Temperatures appear seasonal through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through ~08/09Z...then cig/vsby reductions with low stratus/fog
through sunrise. Most areas MVFR due to this, but some localized
IFR/LIFR may occur near sunrise, especially NW of I-4. A few MVFR
shra may occur, mainly southward of KSUA after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Thurs...winds become N-NW 5-10kt overnight then increase to
10-15kt out of north on Thursday. Seas 2-3 ft tonight...increasing
up to 5 ft over gulf stream by late Thurs.

Thu Night/Friday...Increasing northerly winds to near 20 knots will
bring winds/seas to Advisory criteria over most of the waters.

Winds veer to NE Saturday to around 15 KT nrn waters and 15-20 knots
central/srn waters. Advisory conditions will linger across the srn
offshore and gulf stream waters into Sat aftn. Winds veering to the
ESE/SE Sunday will still stay up near 15 KT with seas 4-6 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  71  50  62 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  56  75  52  63 /   0  10  20  10
MLB  58  75  55  66 /   0  10  30  20
VRB  59  76  57  69 /  10  20  40  20
LEE  54  72  49  61 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  55  73  51  63 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  57  74  54  63 /   0  10  20  10
FPR  59  77  60  70 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Glitto
LONG TERM....Volkmer


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