Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 260117
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
817 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE TRAINING HEAVY RAIN CELLS THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FROM
OSCEOLA BREVARD NORTH STILL LOOKS GOOD. BOTH THE LATEST
GFS 25/18Z AND THE RUC ARE INDICATING A WAVE FORMING ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. BOTH CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ENDING UP OFF THE WILMINGTON NC AREA
AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT WIND AND ITS ASSOCIATED GRIDS AND REPLACED
THE SCATTERED/CHANCE OF STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...REVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN IFR IS AREAS OF RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 26/12Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH FRONT
CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009/010 WERE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 23
KNOTS/17 KNOTS 6/7 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS
BUOYS WERE RECORDING 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR
DAYBREAK WED MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER


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