Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 041922
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...TURNING COOLER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...

CURRENT...COLD FRONT BEING ANALYZED FROM AROUND JACKSONVILLE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF/NATURE COAST MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. RAP40 ANALYSIS/SHORT TERM GRIDS SHOWING THAT THE JET AXIS
OF A 120 KNOT PLUS JET CORE WAS CROSSING OVER THE BIG BEND NORTHEAST
GULF REGION AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF IT WAS MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHORT WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING
SOUTHEAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. LEAD STRONG VORT
MAX EXITING CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER ONE JUST CROSSING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT AND
AROUND KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND AREA DOPPLER RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOWING DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SURFACE TO 15000 FEET OR MORE.
THIS DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED/PULL
GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CLEARS
THU NIGHT. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWED RATHER COOL...-11C TO -12C...MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL KEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT TRAINING OF PREDOMINATELY LIGHT RAIN
THE NEXT 6 OR SO HOURS MAKES FOR A DREARY COMMUTE HOME.

TONIGHT-FRI NIGHT...MODELS INDICATING THAT THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE OVERNIGHT/TOWARD SUNRISE THU. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS NORTH TO SOUTH BEING LATE OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO THU.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CAROLINA OUTER BANKS JOIN FORCES TO PRODUCE A LOW LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT ADVECTS A VERY DRY AND COOL INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL DRIVE DOWN MIN RELATIVE VALUES TO THE LOW AND MID
30S LATE THU THROUGH SAT.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING BKN-OVC040 OR ABOVE. P6SM -RA TIL 05/06 KFPR
AND KSUA. TEMPO BKN030CB TSRA 0418/0422 KFPR KSUA.

.MARINE...SURFACE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THU
AND REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH SUN BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH


.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT SWEEPING DOWN PENINSULA AND SHOULD BE
CLEARING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY PER GUIDANCE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND THE EXITING COLD FRONT ADVECTS DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTING LATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

SEVERAL HOURS OF AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUE OF 35 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS STRONGEST
THURSDAY BUT DURATION OF CRITICAL VALUES AND ERC VALUES WOULD BE
HIGHER DUE TO RECENT RAIN PRECLUDE FORMAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES.

FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO INVESTIGATE ISSUING FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
FOR THE INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES 35 PERCENT AND BELOW AND INCREASING ERC VALUES
BECAUSE OF NO RAIN STARTING THURSDAY.

PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED 327 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016


 SAT-WED...UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD  WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD RETURNING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE AGAIN ON MON THRU WED. A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
WILL SLIDE BY THE AREA/JUST OFFSHORE FRI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO DRY/STABLE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING
OVER LAND. IN FACT...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WED WITH GREATEST CHANCES
SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. ONE MORE DAY FOR
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON SAT...THEN HIGHS QUICKLY CREEP BACK
WELL INTO THE 80S SUN-WED. LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE MON-WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  58  82  53 /  90  20  10  10
MCO  80  60  82  56 / 100  20  10  10
MLB  81  60  83  55 / 100  30  10  10
VRB  83  59  83  56 / 100  30  10  10
LEE  82  58  79  54 / 100  20  10   0
SFB  82  61  83  55 / 100  20  10  10
ORL  81  62  82  57 / 100  20  10  10
FPR  83  61  83  56 / 100  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  81  53  77 /  40   0  10  10
MCO  60  81  57  79 /  40   0  10  10
MLB  59  82  55  77 /  60   0  10  10
VRB  59  82  54  78 /  60   0  10  10
LEE  58  78  54  76 /  20   0  10  10
SFB  60  79  55  79 /  30   0  10  10
ORL  61  81  58  78 /  40   0  10  10
FPR  60  82  55  80 /  60   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER



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