Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251411
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.UPDATE...
10Z Cape sounding indicated low level NNW flow and a PWAT around
1.61 inches with relatively dry air in the 700-500 mb layer. 12Z
Tampa sounding had slightly more low level moisture below 750 mbs
with a PWAT around 1.76 inches. A subtle low level trough will swing
southward into central sections this afternoon along with the east
coast sea breeze developing and moving inland by mid to late
afternoon. Forecast moisture and instability should support isolated
showers developing first across Volusia county and the developing
southwestward into the interior later this afternoon. HRRR and other
high resolution short range guidance indicate thunder chances will
be very low but will not completely rule out a storm or two
developing with peak heating later this afternoon along inland
moving boundaries. Made slight adjustments to the weather grids but
overall little change to the low convective chances today. Highs
today will reach the upper 80s near the Volusia coast and near 90
from Brevard south along the coast. Will see lower 90s for the
interior this afternoon.

High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk in effect at east
central Florida beaches with large east-northeast long period swells
continuing to affect the coast into this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR outside of ISOLD SHRA developing KDAB-KTIX corridor and
moving inland this afternoon. Appears most isolated convection will
stay inland from cstl terminals KMLB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...Seas at Buoy 41009 running around 9 ft this morning in a
large east swell and Buoy 41114 6 miles northeast of Ft Pierce Inlet
has also reached 9 ft. The large swells will pose difficult
navigation at inlets along the coast through the day. No significant
changes expected with morning marine updates. Small Craft Advisory
remains in place for all waters.

Previous...Today and Tonight...The combination of Nly winds and
swell will pose hazards for small craft with sig waves of 7-9Ft near
the coast and 8-10FT offshore today. Slow decay of swell will keep a
Advisory headline in place areawide for seas in the forecast later
tonight as gradient winds diminish to less than 10 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  91  74  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  90  74  90  74 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  90  72  91  74 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  91  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  73  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  91  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  90  72  91  74 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-
     Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
     to midnight EDT Tuesday night for Flagler Beach to Volusia-
     Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
     to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
     County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Volkmer/Glitto



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