Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270151
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Sunny, Dry and Hot this Memorial Day Weekend...

No significant changes to current forecast. The east coast sea
breeze boundary had a very nice presentation on both KMLB and TMCO
doppler radars this afternoon and early evening as it pushed inland.
Winds will become light and variable overnight as the sea breeze
circulation diminishes (but strong sfc heating will restart it
tomorrow). Some airmass modification has occurred particularly in
the form of slightly higher dewpoints. This will keep low temps a
few degrees milder than last night, low to mid 60s inland and mid to
upper 60s coast. These are still 3-5 degrees below normal so looks
like a pleasant night.

Saturday (modified)...Surface ridge will sag south a bit into the
southern CWA through late tomorrow afternoon. This will occur as a
mid level ridge begins to build overhead and replace the zonal flow
aloft. A light S-SW flow will begin the day and gradually give way
to the afternoon sea breeze circulation. Under full sun, max temps
will range from near 90F along the coast to 94-95F inland. GFS MOS
guidance indicates a stronger sea breeze (E-SE) during the mid to
late afternoon near 20 mph.

Sunday-Monday (Previous)...Surface ridge axis south of the area will
produce a low level W/SW flow across the region, which should remain
weak enough for a delayed east coast sea breeze to form. Even with
inland moving sea breezes and late day boundary collisions, ridge
aloft and drier airmass in place will keep rain chances out of the
forecast. Continued dry conditions and mostly sunny skies will
combine for a hot afternoon each day, with highs reaching the mid
90s across the interior and lower 90s near the east coast. Morning
lows will generally be in the mid/upper 60s Sunday morning and upper
60s to low 70s Monday morning.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Saturday...Diminishing sea breeze circulation will produce a
veering wind flow out of the SE and S less than 10 knots overnight.
A light offshore (SW) flow will greet the morning then turn onshore
(E to SE) in a sea breeze by afternoon. MOS guidance indicates that
the sea breeze will be stronger late in the day, increasing around
15 knots near the coast. Seas 2 feet.

Sunday-Tuesday (previous)...Westerly flow in the morning, becomes
onshore later into the afternoon near the coast each day, as the
east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Wind speeds
forecast to remain below 15 knots. Sea conditions will remain very
favorable for boating at 1 to 2 ft early next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  89  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  69  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  64  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  65  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  69  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday from noon until 8 PM For Lake-
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole.

AM...None.

&&

$$

Kelly/Pendergrast


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