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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120858 CCA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 AM EST THU DEC 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...

THE KJAX 00Z SOUNDING REVEALED A SATURATED H100-H85 LYR TRAPPED BLO
A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. N/NE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THIS MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL FL...ALLOWING A DENSE STRATUS DECK TO DVLP ACRS CENTRAL
FL AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACRS THE S HALF THE PENINSULA.
INTO THE FL STRAITS. PATCHY DENSE FOG NOTED IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONTAL BNDRY. HOWEVER...WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK ARE RUNNING
15-20KTS OUT OF THE N AND ARE KEEPING THE AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED
TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.

A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
GREAT LAKES IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP W/NW FLOW THAT WILL PUSH IT
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD ACRS
CENTRAL FL WILL TIGHTEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO SURGE OUT OF THE N AND
PUSH A THE FRONTAL BNDRY INTO THE FL STRAITS. COOL/DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW STRATUS DECK BY MIDDAY...THOUGH SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE TREASURE COAST INTO MID AFTN.

BREEZY N-NE WINDS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR OR A FEW DEG BLO CLIMO
AVG: U60S/L70S ALONG AND N OF I-4...L/M70S SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS. RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLD SHRAS OVER THE GULF STREAM...ALL OF
WHICH ARE MOVING OFFSHORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWRLY FLOW THRU THE
COLUMN. MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS SMALL POPS IN FOR THE TREASURE COAST...
BUT THE TREND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE
MORNING FCST PACK DRY.

THE CENTER OF THE HI PRES RIDGE WILL PUSH TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST
OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE THRU THE H100-H85 LYR.
THIS WILL ALLOW SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE L/M60S E OF I-95. MOST AREAS...HOWEVER...
WILL SEE COOL AND SEASONABLE TEMPS: U40S/L50S ALONG AND N OF I-4...
L/M50S TO THE S.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ERN NC WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND KEEP
ALLOW LOW LVL WINDS TO VEER FROM THE ENE TO E. A DRY AIRMASS IS
FORECAST WITH PWATS RANGING FROM .6 TO .8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH TO
.9 TO ONE INCH ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOME MARINE STRATOCU MOVES
ONSHORE IN THE LOW LVL EASTERLY FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE ESE/SE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
OFFSHORE FROM THE OUTER BANKS AND A SFC LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS AL/MS.
GFS INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH AN AREA OF QPF
ACROSS THE ATLC. WILL INCLUDE A LOW COASTAL SHOWER CHANCE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 60 S CSTL.

SATURDAY...DEEPER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE FL BIG BEND
AND NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS GA. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER FROM THE SE TO SOUTH.
SHOULD BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 81-84 DEGS IN THE
WARM SECTOR. NAM INDICATES SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY
AND WILL GO WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS AND
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF E CENTRAL FL.

SAT NIGHT...GFS/NAM SIMILAR IN KEEPING BULK OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE
NRN PENINSULA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH 20-30 PCT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS NRN AREAS AND BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHICH
MODELS KEEP DRY IN LOW LVL SW FLOW. MILD LOWS FROM 65-70 DEGS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY-SUN NIGHT...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KISSIMMEE TO
MELBOURNE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS COOL TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS
MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA. COOLER LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S NRN
SECTIONS TO LWR TO MID 60S SOUTH.

MONDAY...POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE TOWARD S FL INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING
CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER ACROSS NRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS SRN AREAS.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE SE STATES MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING COOLER HIGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WED NIGHT INTO THU AND BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR BY
THU. NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY WILL VEER TO THE N/NE INTO MID WEEK WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH WINDS BY THU. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SRN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 12/15Z...PREVAILING IFR CIGS BTWN FL004-008 WITH OCNL PDS OF
MVFR CIGS BTWN FL012-015 ALL SITES. BTWN 12/15Z-12/17Z...BCMG VFR
ALL SITES...S OF KMLB-KGIF CIGS BTWN FL040-060. AFT 12/17Z...NRLY
SFC WND G18-22KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DVLPG AS A FRESH TO STRONG NRLY BREEZE
SURGES ACRS THE LCL ATLC. BUOY012 ALREADY REPORTING 20KT WINDS AND
7FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE YET TO REACH BUOY009...CURRENTLY
MEASURING 15KT N/NW WINDS AND 5FT SEAS...BUT ITS JUST A MATTER OF
TIME. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT SEAS BTWN 5-7FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...
4-6FT TO THE SOUTH...BUILDING TO 6-8FT AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTN. WILL
EXPAND THE SCA SWD TO SEBASTIAN INLET. WILL GO WITH A CAUTIONARY
STATEMENT FOR THE SRN LEG TO START THE DAY...UPGRADING TO AN SCA BY
18Z.

NE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE ENE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KNOT WINDS WITH
SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE GULF STREAM AND SRN WATERS WHERE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SE-S WINDS TO 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE SCEC RANGE
ESPEC OFFSHORE. SW WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY LATER IN
THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SEAS
BECOMING ELEVATED IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE AND LIKELY A BIT HIGHER IN
THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST...INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS
AND LOW MIN RHS BTWN 30-40 PERCENT ACROSS NRN INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL
BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. ERC VALUES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TODAY FOR
RFW CRITERIA.

BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH GOOD DISPERSION. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH AGAIN GOOD
DISPERSION VALUES AS TRANSPORT WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONT.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING STORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  52  71  59 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  71  51  75  58 /  10   0  10  10
MLB  73  60  74  65 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  75  61  75  65 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  68  47  73  56 /  10   0  10  10
SFB  70  51  74  58 /  10   0  10  10
ORL  70  51  74  59 /  10   0  10  10
FPR  75  60  75  65 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....VOLKMER