Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 250825
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
425 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
...Boating Conditions Will Deteriorate Tonight through Late
Today...Weak frontal trough pushing south off the Carolina/Georgia
coast will weaken the high pressure ridge across north Florida.
Light north winds early this morning will turn northeast during
the day, near 10 mph, except 15 mph along the coast south of the
Cape. Considerable high (cirrus) clouds will stream west to east
across the area combined with some marine stratocumulus coming in
off the Atlantic so sky condition will be partly cloudy. Forecast
model soundings show considerable dry air in the mid levels with
only a thin/shallow moisture layer at 4k to 5k ft so no rain is
expected. High temperatures will be close to seasonable in the
Tonight...Increasing onshore flow will keep temperatures milder
than previous nights especially near the coast with lows holding
in the lower 70s there, lower 60s far interior. A nominal
increase in low level moisture could produce a few light
showers/sprinkles off the Atlantic after midnight.
Wednesday-Saturday...High pressure extending swd from the Great
Lakes to the Mid-Atlc Seaboard will push an onshore wind surge
into the area beginning in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. The
gusty onshore winds will continue through Wednesday night with
20-25 mph coastal winds, then abating by late Thursday. NE to ENE
wind direction wl keep rain chances on the low side, however a
mention of isolated showers mainly along the central and south
coast is warranted with low chance of any measurable amounts. High
Temperatures will be near seasonable in the lower 80s but low
temperatures will be above normal in the mid to upper 60s, with
lower 70s along the coast.
Extended...Not much change in the onshore wind pattern is shown
into next week, albeit an elongated area of high pressure
setting up along the N FL/GA waters will bring lighter onshore
winds during the weekend and into next week with presence of a
rather stable airmass associated with proximity of high pressure.
Expect lows in the M- U60s and Highs in the L80s. Only a minimal
chance of a coastal sprinkle is indicated early next week.
VFR through 26/12Z.
Today...NE pressure gradient will support 10 knots across the
northern waters and 15 knots across the south. This will produce
2 ft seas north and 3-4 ft south.
Tonight...boating conditions will deteriorate as reinforcing high
pressure builds south from the Great Lakes. E/NE winds will
increase 15-20 knots over the southern and offshore waters first
so a Caution headline will likely be needed for the first half of
the night there. As pressure gradient tightens further, have
introduced a Small Craft Advisory for winds near 20 knots
beginning late tonight for the southern and offshore Brevard
Wednesday-Thursday...Brisk onshore winds will place ongoing
advisory conds over The central and southern coastal waters
through midweek with winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas building 7 to 9
ft over the advisory area from early Wed and into Thu. Waters
north of the Cape will experience slightly better conds...however
headlines for caution winds/seas are likely over the remainder of
the waters into Thu.
Late Week...A gradual improvement in wind and sea state can be
expected with high pressure north of the area weakening while
drawing progressively closer to the NE FL waters into the weekend.
Today...E/NE winds 10 knots except 10-15 knots along the coast
south of the Cape combined with temperatures climbing into the
lower 80s will produce generally good dispersions. Min RH values
should remain near 50 percent along the coast due to onshore flow
but lower near 35 percent over the far interior (Lake county) this
The St. Johns River at Astor has slipped below Action Stage and
will continue a slow decline.
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River will also
continue to fall very slowly, but is forecast to remain above
Action Stage into late week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 67 82 67 / 0 10 20 10
MCO 83 65 85 66 / 0 10 10 20
MLB 82 70 83 72 / 0 20 20 20
VRB 82 70 83 70 / 10 20 20 30
LEE 83 64 84 64 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 82 66 84 65 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 82 66 84 66 / 0 10 10 10
FPR 82 70 82 70 / 10 20 20 30
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Friday for
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.