Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 250150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASIC WX PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE OVER
THE ERN SEABOARD REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST DATA FROM THE
USAF 915HZ PROFILER SHOWS SOLID ERLY FLOW THRU 10KFT THAT HAS
FRESHENED FROM 10-15KTS AROUND SUNSET TO 15-20KTS BY LATE EVNG.
EVENING RAOBS SHOW PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO ARND 1.7" AT KXMR/KTBW
MOST OF WHICH IS IN THE H100-H70 LYR WHILE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
MEAN RH VALUES THRU THE LYR BTWN 70-85PCT. RADAR SHOWS PERSISTENT
SHRA BANDS NOTED OVER THE OPEN ATLC N OF CAPE CANAVERAL (ASSOCD WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY) AND S OF JUPITER INLET
(ASSOCD WITH WAKE VORTICITIES DOWNWIND OF THE NRN BAHAMAS).

WX SETUP IS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ONLY WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LVLS. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LCL POCKETS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST WHERE FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO FORM ALONG THE COAST...WHILE
ITS INCREASING STRENGTH COULD PUSH THEM INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
BEFORE THEY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT. AS SUCH...WILL ADD <20PCT POPS TO
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE...WORDING FOR SLGT CHC AS
OPPOSED TO ISOLD FOR THE COAST. NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 25/18Z
THRU 25/06Z...E DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU 25/12Z. BTWN
25/12Z-25/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-12KTS. AFT 25/15Z...E/SE
INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 25/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL
SITES. BTWN 25/12Z-25/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS A STEADY MODERATE TO
FRESH ERLY BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC OVERNIGHT. SEAS 4-6FT
AREAWIDE...DOMINANT PDS BTWN 6-8SEC. SCT SHRAS/ISOLD TSRAS. NO SIG
CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...

SUNDAY MAY 24TH...
DAB 75 (1995)
MCO 74 (1991)
MLB 76 (1995)
VRB 77 (1997)

MONDAY MAY 25TH...
DAB 75 (1991)
MCO 74 (2014)
MLB 76 (1991)
VRB 77 (1991)

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER



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