Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300100
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.UPDATE...

Current...another benign sea breeze collision ongoing over N Lake/
W Orange/NW Osceola Counties. Clouds near and west of the collision
area will linger for a few hours before dissipating, leaving clear
skies overhead. Dry/stable air mass not terribly conducive to fog
formation, and forecast update will only go with patches across Lake
County and around Lake Okeechobee. Otherwise, just the usual minor
tweaks to sky/temps/wind grids account for current conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SKC through about 14Z...FEW-SCT045-060 thereafter
with LCLY BKN CIGs.

&&

.MARINE...SE winds below 10KT with seas 3-4FT in an 11s swell,
which will linger overnight into Thursday. Made a small tweak to
show a slightly longer period than indicated by WNAWAVE/NWPS model
guidance, per current NOAA buoy obs.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Cristaldi
DSS/IMPACT WX...Bragaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

Thursday...High pressure will drift eastward from the Bahamas and
also move east off the mid Atlantic coast. This will allow low level
flow to veer to the south with high temperatures into the lower to
mid 80s along the immediate coast and in the upper 80s for the
interior. The east coast sea breeze will form along the east coast
by early afternoon and push inland into late afternoon and early
evening. PWATs nudge up to 1.1-1.2 across interior sections in the
afternoon which should produced a healthy cumulus field. Will keep
forecast dry with models not indicating any QPF across the nrn
interior late though late day sea breeze convergence could produce a
shower or two near sunset. Long period east swells will keep the rip
current risk elevated at east coast beaches.

Thu night-Fri night...approaching disturbance aloft will bring an
increase in rainfall chances by Friday. A warm late March night for
Thurs with lows in the mid 60s. On Friday, temperatures will climb
toward the mid/upper 80s southern sections and a few degrees lower
north with earlier timing of clouds/precip moving into the area.
Sufficient increase in moisture coupled with disturbance aloft
expected to produce scattered showers and a few storms. Have
scattered PoPs in all areas along with slight thunderstorm mention
for the afternoon hours. A few showers may linger into the evening
across the southern sections. Overnight mins into Sat morning will
remain below normal...with low/mid 60s most areas.

Previous forecast discussion for this weekend into next week...
Weekend...A transitory ridge will become established over the area
with pleasant but warm temperatures expected and scattered
cloudiness at most. Onshore breezes will develop along the coast
each afternoon...breezy at times due to the seasonally strong
thermal contrast in the coastal zone. Highs in the M-U80s inland
with overnight lows 60-65.

Extended...Another disturbance is shown apchg the area during Mon.
This feature initially looks a little more defined than the previous
one, and a window for development of sct storms should exist at
least over the northern portion of the peninsula late Monday and
into Tue. As UL energy driving the system pulls away from the area,
a lingering boundary sagging into the central peninsula Tue-Wed may
help in local pcpn development diurnally.
Sct rain coverage is indicated for the period attm through Tue then
becoming isold at midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR prevailing at all sites. East coast sea breeze moving inland
should reach the interior sites around 21Z to 22Z this afternoon
turning winds easterly around 10 KT. After sunset this evening winds
will be light and variable. Some patchy fog is possible Thursday
morning but have left out for the time being.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...SE winds to 10 knots this evening will veer to the south
overnight. seas will continue 3-4 ft in an east swell.

Thu...S winds to 10 knots in the morning will become SE 10-15 knots
near shore in the afternoon. Seas will remain in the 3-4 ft range
mainly in an east swell.

Thu night-Monday...Southerly winds will pick up Thursday night then
veer more SW Friday ahead of approaching disturbance. Seas will
build as this occurs, especially the offshore legs and may need some
headlines by late Thursday night. Also, some offshore moving storms
possible on Friday. Boating conditions will improve by Saturday with
high pressure pattern over area. Winds again veer to south and begin
to increase late Sunday into Mon as the next low pressure system
moves into SE states.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  66  81 /   0  10  10  40
MCO  65  88  65  84 /   0  10  10  40
MLB  65  84  68  83 /   0   0  10  30
VRB  62  85  68  83 /   0   0   0  30
LEE  65  88  65  82 /   0  10  10  40
SFB  65  88  65  83 /   0  10  10  40
ORL  66  87  65  83 /   0  10  10  40
FPR  61  85  67  83 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Volkmer
MID-LONG TERM....Glitto
AVIATION...Combs


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