Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 160936
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
436 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...An Extended Period of Benign Weather is Forecast...

Today-Tonight...Weak cool front will continue to move across the
area and eventually shift south of the area this morning as it
fades through the day. High pressure north of the region then
shifts toward the Carolina coastline this evening. Dry airmass in
place will keep rain chances out of the forecast through tonight,
with skies mostly to partly sunny. Some slight cooling behind the
front, mainly over northern areas, will lead to highs ranging from
the mid to upper 60s along the Volusia coast to low 70s toward
Orlando metro area and southward through Osceola and Brevard
counties. Max temps across Okeechobee County and the Treasure
Coast will change little from yesterday, with values in the mid
70s. Winds will veer from light northerly to northeast into the
afternoon as high north of the area continues to build eastward.

Sun...High pressure will push off the Carolina coast and in
response the low level flow will veer out of the East and
Southeast. There will be cirrus streaming overhead from west to
east which may filter the sunshine at times. But losing the
northerly wind component should allow max temps to rebound back to
the upper 70s, except mid 70s along the Volusia coast. No rain is
forecast.

Mon-Fri...00Z GFS/ECMWF are in reasonable agreement showing an
extended period of mainly benign conditions for east central FL
next week. A strong mid level ridge of high pressure over the FL
straits/Bahamas will keep warm/dry conditions across the forecast
area through Wed as deeper moisture gets steered around the ridge
to the north of the area. Above normal high temps expected to
reach the lower 80s each day, except upper 70s coastal sections.
Even low temps look to hold in the low to mid 60s during mid week.
Then a cut-off low over the desert SW is forecast to eject E/NE
across the southern US which should flatten/weaken the ridge aloft
enough to allow a weak cool front to settle south into
north/central FL Thu. Have drawn a small 20 PoP for showers across
Orlando northward on Thu. Not much, if any, cooling is expected
then both models show the ridge aloft rebuilding across the area
Fri with above normal temps continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Band of low clouds along weak cold front will shift southward
from Lake and Volusia counties through Orlando and potentially to
Melbourne through daybreak. These developing low clouds will
produce tempo MVFR conditions as it expands and shifts southward,
with clouds breaking up and lifting after sunrise. Also, patchy
fog will be possible across the Treasure Coast through early this
morning, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR
conditions will be expected through late morning into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...A weak cool front will shift south of the area
as high pressure builds in behind. Northerly winds 10-15 knots
this morning will produce choppy seas esp in the Gulf Stream. Then
winds should veer northeast and decrease to around 10 knots this
afternoon. Winds will continue to veer out of the east tonight
with 5-10 knots north and 10 knots south. Seas will range from
1-3 feet.

Sun-Wed...High pressure over the Carolina coast will push east
onto the western Atlantic Sunday. A trailing ridge axis extending
west initially along 30N will gradually shift south across the
local Atlc waters and FL peninsula reaching south FL Wed or so.
The proximity of the ridge axis will produce favorable boating
conditions with SE-S winds 5-10 knots Sunday and Monday veering to
S-SW Tue and SW Wed with wind speeds no more than 10 knots. Seas
2-3 feet.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  72  54  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  71  57  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  73  57  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  71  52  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  53  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  71  55  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  58  79  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich
LONG TERM....Kelly


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