Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 300055
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
855 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
...Fast Moving Showers/Embedded Storms will bring Gusty Winds and
Heavy Rain Next Few Days...
Deep E-ESE flow will persist over EC FL overnight as Tropical
Depression 9 moves toward the WNW over the SE Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and a few storms will continue to push onshore
through the overnight hours. Latest WRF/HRR run ramps PoPs back up
near the coast up through the overnight hours. Maintained PoP trend
indicating highest pops near the east coast overnight.
MLB finally ended the streak of 90F or warmer days at 63, with high
temp at MLB only reaching 88F today. DAB reached 92F today so has
extended the 90F or warmer streak at DAB to 63 days.
Previous Discussion for Tue-Thu...The current forecast track for
Tropical Depression Nine shows low pressure over the south-central
Gulf lifting slowly northward Tue-Tue night with a shift toward the
northeast on Wed-Wed night taking it toward the northeast Gulf. On
Thu, the system continues to lift northeast and onshore near the Big
Bend region and across the north Florida Thu evening. Increasing
model agreement exists for direction/position but less agreement
Even with these differences a very warm/humid airmass will exist
across ECFL. PWAT values in excess 2 inches and sometimes well in
excess of 2 inches will be likely during the period. Higher than
normal POPs will be forecast even with the tropical low pressure off
to the west. In trying to keep in line with surrounding offices,
will go with 60 to 70 percent for Tue, 30 to 40 percent Tue night,
70 percent for Wed, 40 to 50 percent for Wed night, and 60 to 70
percent for Thu. Obviously, these numbers may need tweaking if
future forecast guidance and development/position of the tropical
low become more apparent. Will need to monitor the flooding
potential for parts of the area, or if there may be some enhanced
risk for wind gusts/squalls/tornadoes.
The primary threat still looks to be heavy rain in fast moving
showers and storms which will have more ability to train over the
same areas on Tue as flow turns deep southerly south of Orlando.
Will hold off on a Flood Watch for now but a more prevailing rain,
heavy at times is expected Tue-Wed as TD9 develops in the
southeast Gulf. Bands of showers and storms will also have
increasing momentum so gusty winds up to 35 mph will be possible.
Then, depending on the exact track and intensity, tropical storm
conditions will be possible across the north and possibly central
FA between Wed night and Thu night.
.AVIATION...Diminished vcsh over interior sections after 02-03z
with vfr cond expected until after sunrise Tue. Kept vcsh in
through the overnight hours near the east coast. Prolonged periods
of shra with some tempo for tsra may be needed on Tue with deep se-s
flow over the area.
Previous discussion...Tue-Fri...Tropical system over the SE GOMEX
will advance slowly north Tue-Tue night, then northeast on Wed-Wed
night, continuing this track into Thu approaching the Big Bend
region Thursday and moving across north FL Thu evening, then off
away from the area toward the northeast through Fri. S/SE flow on
Tue will veer more SSW/SW Tue night into Wed/Wed night and
continuing this directional component on Thu. The pressure gradient
tightens late Tue/Tue night through the extended with some periods
of likely SCEC/SCA conditions. The combination of wind chop and long
period swell keep seas AOB 5-6FT, perhaps up to 7FT well offshore at
times, through the period.
Less then favorable boating conditions will be accompanied by an
increasing coverage of rain/storms and attendant threat for locally
higher winds and seas in gusty storms or squalls.