Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 270222 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
922 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Slight changes to lows tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lowered dewpoints and low temperatures a few degrees based on
current observation trends. Despite scattered high clouds across
at least the southern two-thirds of the CWA, low temperatures for
tonight were lowered a few degrees most locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

AVIATION...
2700/2724 TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail with light and variable winds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast concern is placed on Temperatures through the week.

Currently, off the 26/18z surface analysis, yesterday`s frontal
boundary has pushed well to the south, stalling out across the Texas
Hill Country. Behind the front a welcome, scratch that, a more than
welcome airmass continues to settle across Oklahoma and northern
Texas. Dew points are in the 30s in some locations, and it`s
everything I`d hoped it would be and more. Additionally, north winds
will remain breezy through the afternoon, with highs in the mid 70s
spread across the region. Overnight, lows will dip into the lower
50s.

Tuesday through the midweek, boundary layer flow will remain weak,
with the increasing narrow 500mb ridge continuing to build across
the Plains. Presently, a stout 500mb trough continues to churn just
north of the Boundary Waters and as it lumbers southward across the
Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday, the ridge will steepen and take
on a negative tilt, as it will be bookended by an additional 500mb
low slowly exiting west/northwest off the Baja Peninsula, as it
feels the influence from Tropical Storm Roslyn in the eastern
Pacific. Back home in the plains, this will result in gradual shift
to south/southwesterly flow, which will allow for a brief seasonal
warm up, with highs on Wednesday reaching the mid 80s across the
region. The good news is, dewpoints will hold in the 40s and 50s
during this stretch.

Wednesday night through the end of the week, a dry frontal passage
Wednesday night will bring another shot of fall air to the area.
Highs on Thursday and friday will both top out in the low to mid
70s, with near 80s for the Red River valley on Friday.

Early fall like temperatures will carry into the weekend.
Additionally, with the approach of a Pacific northwest low and the
weakening of the lower Great Lakes/northeast trough, a weak frontal
boundary and short wave trough will combine for low precipitation
chances, isolated showers most likely, for portions of western
Oklahoma both Saturday and Sunday.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  80  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         50  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  51  79  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           49  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  81  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         53  80  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/06


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