Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 061133 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION...
06/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TERMINALS 15Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MILD WEATHER TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
CAVEAT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH
AXIS OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH THAT EJECTS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WERE RAISED...AND WILL BE RAISED MUCH
MORE IF CURRENT WET TREND OF MODELS CONTINUES. GFS IS THE DRIER OF
THE MODELS...BUT WRF/GEM/ECM ALL AGREE THAT SUNDAY COULD BE A
RAINY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

WARMER AND DRY WEATHER MOST OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LONGWAVE TROUGH
TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATE NEXT
WEEK BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH ECM
DEPICTING REX BLOCK OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO PLAINS JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  29  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         50  27  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  28  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
GAGE OK           58  26  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  28  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         49  29  58  38 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/11



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