Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 252320
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND BEGINNING OF FORECAST WITH
FURTHER DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER
NW OK AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-44 BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL PULL NORTH TONIGHT CREATING MVFR
CEILINGS ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. LOWER CEILINGS...
PERHAPS IFR DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW
OK AFTER 12Z.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE A FEW AREAS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON... BUT
OVERALL THE WINDS ARE RATHER MARGINAL FOR THE WIND ADVISORY. WITH
SOME GUSTINESS OUT THERE... WILL KEEP IT GOING UNTIL ITS
EXPIRATION AT 23Z. THIS WAS A DAY WHERE IT WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY
HANDY TO HAVE THE WIND PROFILER NETWORK AND CLOSELY WATCH TRENDS
OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. MDCRS DATA FINALLY DID SHOW WINDS AT
AROUND 3000-3500 FEET AMSL DECREASING FROM 50 KNOTS TO 25-35 KNOTS
FROM FLIGHTS NEAR WILL ROGERS.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH SURFACE COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TO GIVE A MIX OR SNOW IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF MAYBE AN INCH IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND LESS ELSEWHERE.

MODEL SIGNAL IN THE EXTENDED IS THAT WE LIKELY WILL SEE COLD
TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A 1050-PLUS SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE CANADA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  54  32  38 /   0  20  40  20
HOBART OK         39  54  29  38 /   0  10  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  43  61  35  42 /   0  10  20  20
GAGE OK           31  39  21  36 /   0  10  40  10
PONCA CITY OK     40  51  30  38 /   0  20  60  20
DURANT OK         45  58  40  44 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ006>008-
     011>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>047-050-051.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ085-086-
     088>090.

&&

$$


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