Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 222021
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
321 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Short term concerns include low stratus across the area overnight
and possibly some fog across northwest Oklahoma. Forecast
soundings show potential for deep enough saturation for the
possibility of drizzle across north-central Oklahoma late in the
night.

Southerly flow will strengthen significantly tomorrow with near
advisory level winds possible across western Oklahoma. Fire
weather will become a concern (see Fire Weather section below).
Deep closed low will approach from the west tomorrow and
moisture/instability and forcing will be favorable for convection
to form in the Panhandles late in the day. Thunderstorms will
consolidate and move east entering our area during the evening and
progressing across the area in a weakened state overnight.
Meridional flow will not favor particularly steep lapse rates and
with diabatic cooling overnight, instability should be too weak to
support a sustained severe weather threat. Some increase in
convection may occur as early as late Friday morning within a
low-level theta-e ridge, and especially by afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma. Some redevelopment is possible further west in a
narrow corridor of weak instability that may develop during the
afternoon, and if this happens storms would be confined east of
I-35. Some could be severe, especially if instability is able to
rise to levels higher than model guidance currently indicate.
Otherwise, some showers in wrap around moisture are possible
across northwest Oklahoma. Further south dry/windy conditions will
bring fire weather concerns across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas during the afternoon.

The next in a series of shortwave troughs will arrive Sunday and
interact with rapidly returning moisture and a destabilizing
atmosphere. Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected Sunday.
Synoptic scale differences in model guidance limit confidence in a
more significant severe weather episode at this time but given the
degree of shear and potentially instability, trends will need to
carefully be monitored.

GFS and its ensembles are much more closed off than the ECMWF with
the system that will affect the area mid week, so confidence is
low. We were fairly broad brush with precipitation probabilities
Tuesday and Wednesday. This pattern would support thunderstorms
and potentially some severe weather.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
across much of the area tomorrow afternoon, with the greatest
potential for initial attack type fire activity across western
Oklahoma and western north Texas where RH values will be lowest.
Forecast soundings show considerable dry layer between 850 and 700
mb that could support lower RH values than currently forecast.
This needs to be monitored as it could increase the fire concern
tomorrow. Near critical to possibly critical fire weather
conditions could develop across western north Texas and possibly
southwest Oklahoma Friday depending on the position of wrap around
moisture and associated higher RH values. Winds will be
sufficiently strong though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  57  80  59 /  10   0   0  50
Hobart OK         66  57  81  55 /  10   0   0  50
Wichita Falls TX  77  60  83  59 /  10   0   0  40
Gage OK           60  50  82  52 /  10  10  10  70
Ponca City OK     60  53  79  60 /  20  20  20  40
Durant OK         73  59  79  61 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/12


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