Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 251735 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
25/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 22-24Z WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE
EXPECTED FROM AROUND KOKC/KOUN UP TO KPNC. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
QUICKLY TOWARD AND AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AND BACK TO MORE
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OK LATE THIS
MORNING. AS MIXING CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SOME LOCATIONS TO BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE GUSTS NEAR 45 TO 50 MPH
ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL OK WHERE MEAN MIXED LAYER MAGNITUDES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S
WILL KEEP RH CRITERIA JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. THE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY IN THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TODAY
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA. 850 MB
WINDS OVER 50KTS ARE INDICATED ON THE NAM AND GFS. A WIND ADVISORY
IS EFFECTIVE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. EXTREMELY WARM
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PASSING OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
AT NEXT WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  37  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         60  35  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  35  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           59  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     55  33  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         61  39  68  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>030-034-
     035.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/11



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