Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 192336
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
536 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 149 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

It will be dry and coolish through the short term portion of the
forecast.

Northwest flow aloft this afternoon will relax and become nearly
zonal early Monday. This will allow south winds to develop and
become gusty Monday afternoon. A clipper system will then descend
southeast over the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will put us back
on the fringe of northwest flow aloft and also bring a cold front
through the region Tuesday evening. Surface ridging along the Gulf
Coast through the period will prevent any substantial moisture
return ahead of the cold front, so no precipitation is forecast.

As for temperatures, strong radiational cooling conditions are
expected tonight with dewpoints in the lower 20s. The forecast is a
degree or two lower than the consensus of guidance, but may not
be low enough. Won`t be surprised to see some lower 20s.

With south winds, sunny skies and dry air in place, figure
temperatures may climb a bit above consensus guidance Monday.
There will be a few more clouds Tuesday, but we will start out
about 10 degrees warmer, so figure guidance may be too cool.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 149 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

A tranquil and dry holiday week/weekend coming up with a bit of a
roller coaster ride with regards to temperatures however.

On Wednesday, a gradually weakening surface high pressure system
will steadily be moving into the region bringing another pretty good
drop in temperatures. We will see 850mb temperatures plunging below
zero throughout the day. Highs will likely struggle to reach 40
degrees in the far northern parts of the area. Aloft, a small scale
disturbance will pass through but with little moisture to work with,
the forecast will remain dry.

After a rather cold night Wednesday night with lows in the mid 20s,
we will see temperatures rebound a bit on Thanksgiving Day as upper
heights start to rise as weak high pressure remains in place at the
surface. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s to around 50 degrees
in southeast MO.

Surface winds finally pick up out of the south by Friday ahead of
our next system. So on Friday we will finally see high temperatures
back into the lower to middle 50s across the entire region. A
moisture starved cold front is slated to pass through the area
Friday night into Saturday morning and bring not much more than a
band of clouds. Depending on the exact timing of the front, we could
see highs warming even further into the 50s early on Saturday before
FROPA, and then temperatures will start falling. Highs on Sunday
will be back down into the 40s once again but dry as high pressure
once again dominates.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

High pressure/clear skies and ultimately light or calm winds
expected overnight. The high shifting eastward returns southerlies
tmrw, and some gustiness may occur during the pm hours. Gridded
time/height cross sections show a dry trop xcp for the high
levels, where sct-bkn250 may manifest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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