Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300710
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

An upper level high that has been centered over our region for the
last few days will finally start to shift west and weaken today
into tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system over
Manitoba will slide southeast into Ontario and Quebec. As this
occurs, we will be watching an upper level wave move southeast
toward the region and impact our area on Wednesday/Wednesday
night.

For today, we will see a very similar scenario as we saw yesterday,
which is isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. However,
moisture does not look as plentiful today as it has in previous
days, so most areas will likely stay dry. Best chances will likely
be in the afternoon in our northern sections.

PoPs will peak on Wednesday, as the aforementioned upper wave
actually moves into the region. We could have something develop
tonight up our northern areas but believe the better chances will
hold until Wednesday. As has been the case now for several runs, it
looks like chances are better over our northern counties but as this
wave continues to shift south, the precipitation chances start
decreasing. May have to linger some POPs on Wednesday night, as the
upper wave will still be moving through. But we should clear out
nicely by Thursday as the upper flow becomes northerly. At the sfc,
high pressure will push into the area late Wednesday night into
Thursday, allowing drier and cooler air to filter in.

We will experience another warm and humid day today before
temperatures lower a bit on Wednesday with more clouds and possible
rain. Dewpoints will remain high through Wednesday. Heat index
values will be upper 90s to around 100 today, possibly a few degrees
higher than that in a few places. When the cooler and drier weather
weather arrives for the latter part of the week, we`ll be seeing
high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with much more
comfortable humidity values.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Generally followed WPC`s approach with moderate ops model / ensemble
mean blending days 4-5, then almost purely ensemble mean days 6-7.
Generally quiet weather with a gradual increase in warmth and
humidity. An upper level ridge will be the dominant feature while at
the surface, a large high pressure area will move east to the east
coast. Will keep an eye on Sunday. EC for 3 model runs indicates a
tad increase in moisture from the MO bootheel region into SEMO, SW
IL. Could be enough for isolated activity. Other time frame is over
our NW most CWFA counties Tuesday for potential convection. Chances
more likely across the LSX FA to our NW. Temps will be mostly
weighted toward the EC/ENS MOS numbers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Patches of fog may develop, mainly at more fog prone locales
(KCGI/KPAH). Carbon copy almost day tmrw with scattered diurnal
bases developing 3K-3.5K FT AGL.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CW
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DH



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