Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 201132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
632 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion for 12z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

May have some patchy fog early this a.m. Will monitor that.
Otherwise, an upper level ridge will build across the area and
persist through the short term, with weak southerly flow at the
surface just west of a surface high pressure ridge. Above normal
temperatures and humidity levels are forecast. For now, we will keep
the forecast dry. We cannot completely rule out isolated convective
activity, mainly this afternoon toward the KY/TN border and MO
bootheel, and then again Friday, with weak upper support moving west
across the area. For now, confidence is simply too low to include
the mention. Otherwise, look for maximum heat index values in the
mid 90s to near 100 each afternoon. Used a blend of the models for
the overall forecast, and trended highs and lows more toward MOS.
Not a whole lot of cloud cover either.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Forecast confidence is high through the extended portion of this

The 00Z guidance agrees that we will be under the influence of high
pressure aloft to begin the period on Saturday. A broad, weak trough
aloft will push northward through the region Sunday and Monday, with
the upper ridge reasserting itself Tuesday. At the surface, high
pressure will be centered over the Appalachians through the period.

Managed to keep the forecast dry Saturday through Tuesday, but an
isolated diurnal thunderstorm cannot be completed ruled out,
especially on Sunday and Monday with that broad trough in the area.
Well above normal temperatures and humidity will continue through

Looking ahead to next Wednesday, there is some potential for showers
and storms to reach the area, as a short wave trough moves east out
of the central and northern Plains and into the upper Mississippi
Valley. The surface reflection will be dissipating as it approaches
our region due to the strong surface ridging over the Appalachians
that will be fortified by Hurricane Maria which is expected to be
running north just off shore the east coast. Given the issues with
the surface reflection, figure that convection will struggle to
reach the area. However, we will likely begin to see some
modest cooling as surface high pressure filters into the area.


Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Aside from some patchy fog for the next 1 to 2 hours, VFR
conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. A few locations
outside of the TAF sites are observing some patchy MVFR to IFR
vsbys this morning. Scattered Cu field will develop late this
morning and afternoon with some broken coverage anticipated, with
best bet at KPAH. Can`t completely rule out an isolated
shower/storm this afternoon, mainly over west KY, but chance is
rather low. Southerly winds today below 10 kts will become light
to calm this evening/overnight. Some possibility at some patchy
fog toward sunrise tomorrow, but chance is too low to mention at
this time.




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