Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 311957
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A line of showers is marching across the remainder of the
southeastern tier of counties at this writing, and should be gone
by press time. Visible imagery shows clearing has worked its way
into the western tier of counties at this writing, and it will
spread eastward as well. However, cylone induced low clouds will
follow the upper Low and impact our far northeastern, and eastern
counties, into the overnight hours.

Dew points have already plummetted into the lower 20s for some of
our northern counties, and this too will spread southward and
eastward overnight. Lows will be just below freezing, but with the
parent Cyclone rotating across our eastern counties, and the High
still to our west, the gradient will maintain some wind through much
of the overnight hours. We will let the freeze warning remain, as
temps will be below freezing, but with the dew point depression
likely remaining in the 5-10F range for the bulk of the night, and
winds staying up for most, if not the entire night, we`ll back off
on the frost wording for tonight.

The better hard freeze/frost will be tomorrow night, as the
surface High moves overhead, winds die early, and skies are clear.
It will be an ideal night for a widespread hard freeze/frost Sat
night. Then lots of sunshine Sunday will allow a diurnal warmup of
25 degrees, but that still means 50s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

The extended forecast period begins with the a progressive trough-
ridge-trough pattern across the U.S., with the WFO PAH forecast
area shifting into the western limb of the ridge axis. Nearly all
of the medium range guidance initially moves a full latitude
progressive trough. through the intermountain region before
shearing the southern axis along the Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas
borders. This shearing action elongates the trough axis,
stretching the vorticity axis into the lower Mississippi Valley.

The main impact in the short term will be to increase and sustain
a period of lift over Missouri and enabling a little better
(although meager) of moisture into the western half of the WFO PAH
forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night. It is at this point in
the forecast that elevated instability will be maximized. For that
period, added a differential PoP mention of thunderstorms (less
than the chance of showers) to handle elevated (mainly above 850
mb) convection.

By Wednesday night, there is a hint that a closed low will develop
near the California Baja region, building a ridge back in the
western U.S. and pushing the mean trough over the WFO PAH forecast
area to the northeast. With any meaningful flow from the Gulf of
Mexico blocked, precipitation chances will dwindle quickly in the
developing northwest flow.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal for this time of the
year for the extended period, owing to cloud and rain chances
early in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Visible imagery time lapse shows clearing on track, working in
from the west, arriving at terminals in 18-21Z time frame.
However, it also shows cyclonic flow clouds in the low VFR-MVFR
range that are poised to rotate southeastward and impact our
northeast terminals (KEVV/KOWB) shortly thereafter. Clouds will
linger longer in the northeast (KEVV/KOWB), due to the influence
of the Low. Winds/gusts will stay up longer there as well.
Improvement is noted during the planning period, though the
gradient wont altogether loosen until beyond the valid forecast
time this issuance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith






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