Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 281829
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH COLD
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME VERY STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP LOWS DROP TO NEAR RECORDS AS LOW
TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HERE IN
THE RALEIGH OFFICE WE HAVE STARTED OUR FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE
SPRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 FROM 2 AM UNTIL 10
AM ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN FOR
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON APRIL 5.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY BUT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY EVENING. THIS
WILL HELP TO BEGIN THE TEMPERATURE TURNAROUND AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF INSOLATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT STILL A COOL DAY
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH TO SOUTH.
LOWS MODERATING BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...

...FREEZE WATCH UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING...

TONIGHT: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...SETTLING OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NC BY SUNRISE SUN MORNING. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OF
THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING BY 06Z SUN AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND MID/UPPER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HWY 64...COLDEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WARMEST IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN.

SUNDAY: THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE
ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/SE COAST
BY 00Z MON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A NEUTRAL
ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ACCOUNTING FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION VIA LATE MARCH INSOLATION...AND
MARGINAL WARM ADVECTION IN THE WEST...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 50S SW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY
MONDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AND LACK OF SIGNIF MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH LITTLE
PRECIP...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST LOW-END CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS NOTED...QPF VALUES ARE LOW.
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY REACHING
THE LOWER 60S...THANKS TO POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW AND SUNSHINE
RETURNING BY MID-DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER AS DRY NW FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WHILE A TRANSIENT SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. SEASONABLE TEMPS...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 40 AND HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE MID-UPR 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS OUR STATE...STALLING NEAR THE SC BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IF ANY PRECIP ASSOC WITH THIS FRONT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S AND HIGHS
AROUND 70.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WEAKENING TO 3-7 KT AFTER
SUNSET AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING CALM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
ADVERSE CONDITIONS (MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN) WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW.

    RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE

GSO    20-1966

RDU    20-1966

FAY    24-1982

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042-
043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...RAH


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