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000
FXUS62 KRAH 130718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL USHER A CP AIRMASS WELL
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GUSTINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE TAUT PG BETWEEN THE INTENSE-SUB 980 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND A 1027MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF COAST...SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS 15-
20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 40S...WITH RESULTANT WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. VERY COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S...WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS. SUCH A HARD FREEZE WILL POSE A THREAT TO ANY
NEWLY BUDDING VEGETATION. HOWEVER...BEING SO EARLY IN THE GROWING
SEASON(STILL 2.5 WEEKS AWAY FROM THE AVERAGE DATE OF LAST SPRING
FREEZE)...AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO FREEZING
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. WILL HOWEVER ADD A MENTION IN THE HWO.

ADDITIONALLY...LOWER RH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CP AIRMASS AND CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL NC TODAY. AS SUCH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. FURTHER DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT:

THE COLD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A COLD
AND CHILLY START TO THE DAY... THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE
ONSET OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
NICELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEAK S/W ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO ADVECT
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNDER
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZY...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (WITH POSSIBLY SOME SOUTHERN STREAM
INTERACTION) AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON
WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
BRING PRECIP IN FASTER (ON SATURDAY NIGHT) AS IT SHOWS SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY TRANSLATING EAST (AHEAD OF THE MAIN MORE DOMINATE WAVE
LATER ON SUNDAY). THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DOES NOT KICK EAST AS FAST. WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL (PER
WPC) AND THEREFORE WILL SHOW INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS CENTERED ON THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO IRON OUT
THE DETAILS...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP DOES
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A LOT GOING AGAINST FROZEN PRECIP...SUCH AS THE TIME OF YEAR AND THE
NOT SO FAVORABLE POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE HIGH SUPPLYING THE COLD
AIR...SO THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS). TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF 15KTS...GUSTING TO 25
KTS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AROUND SUNSET.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...

SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
PERHAPS EVEN BELOW ZERO THU AFTERNOON... YIELDING CRITICALLY LOW RH
VALUES.

FORESTRY OFFICIALS REPORT DRY FINE FUELS (DESPITE LAST FRIDAY`S
RAINS). DRY FINE FUELS WITH THE CONDITIONS LISTED ABOVE WILL CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH FIRES CAN RAPIDLY GROW AND SPREAD OUT OF
CONTROL. THUS...THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL
FIRE WX...CBL