344
FXUS62 KRAH 160555
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM Wednesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north today with the upper ridge building in the southeast U.S. from
off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the convection to widely
scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities will be along the
SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along the Blue Ridge.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with partly to mostly
sunny afternoon skies. Lows generally in the lower 70s west and mid
70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Slightly lower storm chances on Wednesday

* Still hot and humid

Areal coverage of showers and storms should be a bit less on
Wednesday as upper ridging strengthens across the area. This will
push the highest PW values into the western Piedmont, once again
making them the primary focal area for shower and thunderstorm
development with somewhat lesser coverage elsewhere. Sea breeze
initiated convection is possible across the southern Coastal Plain,
with the center part of the state potentially seeing fewer storms
than others. This areal coverage is supported by the 12Z HREF and
other hi-res guidance, and closely resembles the inherited forecast
as well as NBM.

Temperatures should be a bit warmer than those seen today, with
highs reaching the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows once again falling
into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 148 PM Tuesday...

* Diurnal showers/storms possible each day through the extended
  period.

* Hot and humid conditions expected each day, with potentially
  dangerous heat this weekend.

Thursday and Friday, high pressure will move westward off the
Atlantic Ocean into the southeast United States. This should
somewhat limit the diurnally induced showers/storms over central
North Carolina, especially closer to the center of the high pressure
in the southeast portions of the CWA. Saturday should have
increasing diurnal rain chances as a shortwave trough looks like it
could reach the region from the north. Sunday through Tuesday should
return to riding over the region, however there does not appear to
be a large change in airmass so diurnal shower/storm chances remain
until at least mid-week.

Temperatures will be above normal for the extended period. Maximum
temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s each day of the long
term period, with the potential for temperatures in the upper 90s in
the warmest spots in the south Friday through Sunday. This will
combine with high humidity values to increase heat indices to
potentially dangerous levels. The maximum heat indices may be near
or above 100 degrees for much of central North Carolina for the
majority of the long term. Heat advisory apparent temperature
criteria (105 to 109 degrees) may be met this weekend for eastern
portions of central North Carolina.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM Wednesday...

Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for areas of low
stratus to develop between 08Z to 12z, leading to a period of MVFR
to IFR restrictions. These restrictions should lift by mid to late
Wednesday morning (13 to 15z), returning conditions to VFR.

Shower and storm coverage is expected to be lower this afternoon
and evening. The best chances should focused along the inland-moving
seabreeze, possibly impacting the eastern terminals late day
(KRWI and KFAY).

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, along with patchy
late night and early morning fog and stratus through the end of the
week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Badgett