Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 302326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT



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