Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 011624
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
924 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE FAIR
AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEK...WITH NIGHT/MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS/FOG EXTENDING FAR INTO THE VALLEYS. LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES
AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
MORE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 01/0000 UTC ECMWF AND 01/0600 GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SHORT-TERM...AND DIFFER IN THE LONG-TERM.

AT 9 AM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA AND A VERY WEAK LOW
AROUND 250 MILES SW OF POINT CONCEPTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
A DEEP MARINE LAYER...WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OVER INLAND
AREAS...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 01/1200
UTC KNKX SOUNDING SHOWED AN 8 DEG C MARINE LAYER INVERSION...AND A
CALCULATED PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.69 INCHES.

THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER SW CA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND PULL IN DRY AIR FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWERING HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL CREATE A DEEP MARINE LAYER...WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPING WELL INLAND INTO THE VALLEYS AND REACHING
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES EACH NIGHT. ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM THE COAST TO THE CA/AZ BORDER NEAR 5 MB WILL CREATE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAINS PASSES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE HIGH DESERTS...AND RANGE FROM 5 TO 20 DEG F BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR OTHER INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TEMECULA/MURRIETA AREA.

HEIGHTS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...HELPING TO CREATE A
SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...AND RAISE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS DEVELOPS
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF SW CA...WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER
SW CA COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TOWARDS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD YIELD NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND A
MODERATELY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
011600Z...COAST/VALLEYS... BKN-OVC020-025 TOPS 030-035 CLEARING TO
THE COASTLINE THROUGH 19Z. AFT 19Z SCT030 BKN150.

AFT 02Z...BKN-OVC025-030 TOPS 030 RETURNING TO COASTAL TAF SITES AND
SPREADING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY. P6SM VIS
XCP OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE THE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN150 WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
900 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 AM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS FROM HURRICANE JIMENA WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS TO SO-CAL BEACHES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...EASING A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHEST SURF OF 3-4
FEET WILL BE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SETS TO 6 FT ON SOUTHWEST
FACING BEACHES.

A FRESH SOUTH SWELL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING EVEN HIGHER SURF TO SO-CAL BEACHES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MOEDE



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