Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 312041
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
141 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION. DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CREATE QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
COAST/VALLEYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG DESERT
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEVADA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AROUND 650 MILES SW OF SAN
FRANCISCO. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS. NOT MUCH HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW SMALL RETURNS PICKED UP ON RADAR NORTH OF
BIG BEAR. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS. DRYING IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SET
UP DRY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND CREATE A SHALLOWER
MARINE LAYER. BEFORE THEN...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH
THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND...THEN REMAIN RESTRICTED TO
THE COAST/COASTAL VALLEYS FOR NEXT WEEK. 31/1200 UTC GFS AND
ECMWF DIFFER IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DIGS IT ALONG THE COAST DOWN TO SOCAL...WHILE
THE GFS HAS HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER
TO THE SE. CURRENTLY...CONFIDENCE IS LEANING TO NEAR SEASONAL
WEATHER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
MOUNTAIN DESERT SLOPES EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
312000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES NEAR 1500
FT MSL AND TOPS 2000-2500 FT RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 01/00-
03Z AND SPREADING WELL INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH 12Z LCLLY OBSCURING
HIGHER TRRN. OTHERWISE...SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA FL250 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
SAT MORNING. AREAS OF CU/TCU WITH BASES NEAR 8K FT ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN CRESTS....SPREADING INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z SAT
WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY NORTH OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY. ISOLD
STORMS WITH TOPS FL350-400 WILL CONTAIN STG UDDFS AND LLWS FROM
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SFC. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...EXCEPT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS FOR A FEW HOURS...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...NEW SOUTH SWELL BUILDING IN BEHIND DECREASING
SOUTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JAD


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