Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010008
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
707 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SFC LOW JUST W OF TYR AS OF 23Z...AND ORIENTED ALONG A
N-S STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLL...TO JDD...THEN E ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...WILL RESULT IN POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS/PERIODS OF
-SHRA/-DZ ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
SE INTO DEEP E TX. BELIEVE THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDER
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG A WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR TYR TO LFK/JAS...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE TYR/LFK
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDER CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN GGG
BETWEEN 01-04Z ASSOCIATED WITH A EWD MOVING MCV ALONG AN ELEVATED
AREA OF INSTABILITY. SCT SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP/FILL E
ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/N LA/SW AR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN MVFR CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS GRADUALLY SPREADING E LATE WHERE
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST NOW OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR. CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW/STATIONARY FRONT...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ CAN
BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE. CAN/T
EVEN RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL OVER NCNTRL LA...AS THE
INSTABILITY AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK N...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE
MLU TERMINAL. WILL RE-EVALUATE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE...BUT DID MENTION VCSH HERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
ENE WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 5-8KTS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY GETTING SOME CONVECTION GOING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW /NOW CENTERED JUST W OF TYLER/ AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH
SEWD. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE SFC LOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL LA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN AN OVERALL WARMING
TREND.

UPPER TROF TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SEWD IN THE
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN OVER OUR SERN AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY FORCED AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY MORE COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  83  69  85  69 /  50  30  20  20  10
MLU  67  84  67  86  67 /  60  40  30  30  20
DEQ  65  79  65  85  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
TXK  65  80  66  85  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  65  81  65  84  66 /  50  30  10  20  10
TYR  68  84  68  86  70 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  69  83  68  86  68 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  71  87  70  90  71 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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