Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
854
FXUS64 KSHV 262048
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
348 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface cold front has moved south of Interstate 20, and scattered
convection has finally developed ahead of the front across Deep
East Texas, the Toledo Bend County, and into Central Louisiana. A
cutoff low over the Baja Peninsula has kept most of the deep layer
moisture well to our west, which has significantly limited
convective development. In addition, the best large scale forcing
is also well removed from our area. Latest water vapor loops shows
cool and dry air aloft gradually pushing southeast through
Oklahoma and Arkansas as another broad upper trough moves across
the Northern Great Lakes. The push of this cool and dry air will
finally kick the cold front through the remainder of our counties
and parishes this evening, which will effectively end our rain
chances. In fact, a dry forecast is anticipated for the remainder
of the next week after midnight tonight.

The cooler temperatures behind the front will be the big story.
Northerly surface winds will allow for some weak cold air
advection. Much of the next week will be characterized by cool
overnight lows and warm, but near normal, daytime highs. Low
temperatures may fall into the upper 40s as early as tonight north
of Interstate 30, but most locations farther south will be in the
low to mid 60s as the cloud cover will not completely exit the
area until late Tuesday. On Wednesday, compressional warming ahead
of another cold front combined with the lack of widespread wetting
rains today should allow temperatures to climb a couple of degrees
above guidance values, likely near 90 degrees F in many areas.

The second cold front will quickly move across the area late
Wednesday/early Thursday. Moisture levels will be so low that I
doubt there will be much in the way of any clouds with the front,
much less rain chances. Instead, the front will deliver a
reinforcing surge of cool air and dry air to the region. Daytime
highs may actually struggle to reach 80 degrees F across much of
the area Thursday and Friday. An upper level ridge will keep the
forecast dry through the weekend and into early next week while
temperatures climb each day.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  59  89 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  63  82  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  53  81  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  58  82  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  60  81  51  85 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  63  82  59  86 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  63  82  59  88 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  65  84  63  88 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.