Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 252016
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
316 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonal cool overnight temps last night will quickly revert
with the stg return flow undergoing. LWA in effect for western
half of area until 7 pm. Since the extreme western edge of area,
including TYR obs, marginally meeting criteria, will allow to ride
until expiration. Do expect non lwa conditions after this time.
However, a new lwa will likely be needed areawide by early to mid
morning on Fri. Mid lvl dry air and capping with delay any chances
of convection until at least Sat night once frontal boundary
begins movg swd into AR. These conditions will also yield hottest
temps of the season thus far, with mid to upper 70 overnight lows
Sat night with south winds, clouds, and possible compressional
warming in play. Pcpn water values over 2 inches and a slow movg
frontal boundary may allow for some heavy rainfall to occur will
make for a wet latter portion of the Memorial wknd holiday. Once
this front finally works just south of area, a developing upper
low over nw Mexico will help to stall front and move it into, or
possibly even north of the cwa. Thus, convection possible
throughout the extended period, although exact locations of focus
will depend on exact frontal positioning./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1248 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 25/18z TAFs, some scattered cumulus clouds will be
possible across North Central Louisiana through sunset, but most
of the area, including all TAF sites, should experience SKC
conditions until the early morning hours of Friday. Wind speeds
are only expected to diminish slightly after sunset, with winds
near or above 10 kts persisting at most terminals. The strong
southerly low level flow should bring low stratus into portions
of the area before sunrise Friday morning. This could result in
MVFR ceilings across East Texas and extreme Western Louisiana,
including KTYR, KGGG, and KLFK. Ceilings will be slow to lift
after daybreak, and increasing mid and high clouds are expected
from the west. Winds speeds will likely increase once again to
around 15 kts areawide with gusts near or above 25 kts by the end
of the period.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  90  75  91 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  66  90  73  90 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  65  87  73  88 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  68  89  74  90 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  66  89  73  88 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  71  89  76  90 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  70  89  76  91 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  71  90  77  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059-060-070-071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002-
     010-017.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$


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