Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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076
FXUS64 KSHV 132045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PREDOMINATELY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
THOUGH...WHICH IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS OUR EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PARISHES. THESE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY REMAINS OUR
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS COLDER AIR
CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TONIGHT WILL BE A
MINI BATTLE BETWEEN THIS COLDER AIR SETTLING IN THE REGION AND THE
DEVELOPING CLOUD DECK. IN FACT...IF THIS CLOUD DECK IS ABLE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SUNSET...BELIEVE IT WILL CREATE
ENOUGH INSULATION ALONG WITH THE WINDS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR EVEN WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW THIS
MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN THIS
MORNING.

A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. FOR VALENTINE/S DAY...THIS
FIRST WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY BRING A FEW LIGHT AND SPOTTY
LOVE SHOWERS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE.
A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY...AS THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE
DIGS ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL DO NOT LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR DRY START TO THE YEAR...BUT WE
WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. FOR NOW...THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE...BUT DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN THINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE ALIGNED...BUT
FEEL THAT IT MIGHT BE MORE WISHCASTING THAN FORECASTING. PALMER

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST SAT FEB 13)...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING A DEEP SFC HIGH OF 1040MB
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MO AND WESTERN ILL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY WITH LOWER PRESSURES NOTED ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDL AND IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS GRADIENT IN COMBINATION WITH
SUFFICIENT MIXING WAS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12-14KTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 23KTS NOTED ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. A QUICK CHECK OF OBSERVATIONS AS OF 17Z
SHOWED THAT THE GUSTS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT. FOR THE 18Z TAF
PACKAGE...HAVE WENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12KTS AREAWIDE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.

VIS SATELLITE SHOWING MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ITS THIS MOISTURE THAT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT...EXPECTING AT LEAST 3-4KFT CEILINGS SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORIES
AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE 3-5SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE
LFK/TYR TERMINAL LOCATIONS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF
A SE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND A SE TO S DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 8-12KTS. 13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  64  55  68 /   0  20  60  70
MLU  39  63  54  65 /   0  20  60  70
DEQ  37  57  45  66 /  10  30  70  30
TXK  40  60  50  66 /   0  20  70  60
ELD  34  60  50  61 /   0  20  70  70
TYR  52  70  55  70 /   0  20  50  50
GGG  49  67  55  68 /   0  20  50  60
LFK  50  69  57  73 /   0  20  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

28/13



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