Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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621
FXUS64 KSHV 271930
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
230 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection beginning to develop along moisture axis around the
wrn periphery of the upper ridge. In addition, convection
associated with the low pressure system along the TX/LA Gulf
coast has moved into our srn areas. Expect this to continue
through the afternoon and early evening, before diminishing after
sunset. This general pattern looks to continue through Tuesday,
as the upper low pushes further sw along the TX coast.

After Tuesday, afternoon convection should be slightly more
sparse in coverage, but will remain possible areawide. With lesser
coverage of convection/clouds, temps will continue to slowly climb
through this week. We may even be looking at heat index values
getting back in the ballpark of Heat Advisory criteria towards the
end of the work week.

As for the Tropics, there is still much uncertainty in the
forecast models with regard to Invest 99. If it were to affect our
region, which appears highly unlikely at this point, it would
occur sometime next weekend. Will continue to monitor fcsts and
models this week for this potential nonetheless. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the ArkLaTex through this
evening. However...scattered showers and thunderstorms are
starting to develop over east Texas...and may impact
KTYR...KGGG...and KLFK through 03z...with local mvfr or ifr
conditions possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. KSHV may
also be impacted by these showers as well...but will need to watch
because of lower confidence. Although the shower and thunderstorm
activity will decrease after sunset...patchy MVFR visibilities
and ceilings will likely develop between 9z and 12z...potentially
impacting the tafs sites as well. Palmer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  93  75  92 /  20  30  20  20
MLU  74  93  75  94 /  20  30  20  20
DEQ  72  92  74  93 /  20  20  10  20
TXK  73  92  75  92 /  20  20  20  20
ELD  73  93  75  93 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  73  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
GGG  74  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  20
LFK  74  89  74  90 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12



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