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000
FXUS64 KSHV 192022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

KSHV CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH WITH SUNSET...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN ON THE
WEATHER MAP IS A MCS IN NORTHWEST TEXAS THAT CONTINUES TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING THIS MCS TO LOSE ENERGY
BEFORE IT APPROACHES EAST TEXAS...THERE STILL MAY BE ENOUGH ENERGY
AND LIFT FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. I AM HOLDING 20 CENT POPS IN
OVERNIGHT IN PARTS OF EAST TEXAS TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS TEXAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE ARKLATEX WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE...SO TEASER 20 CENT POPS WILL BE COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER THE OVERALL FORECAST TREND WILL BE
TURNING DRY...WITH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELEVEN

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM
SCATTERED TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
BEST COVERAGE FOR THE CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF A KJSO TO KAEX
LINE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER AFTER
08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG. SURFACE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF CONVECTION. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  70  93  70  94  69 /  10  20  10  10  10
DEQ  68  90  69  93  69 /  10  20  10  20  10
TXK  69  90  72  93  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  67  92  69  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  93  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  71  93  72  93  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  73  94  72  93  71 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/14