Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 281552
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1052 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Slow-moving cold front to continues to make some swd progress this
morning, and associated convection is making very slow swd
progress as well. Expect this to gradually increase in intensity
and coverage as daytime heating aids what is already dynamically
being forced. Have made a few minor tweaks to the ongoing
PoPs/sky grids based on ongoing trends. Heat advisory remains in
effect until 7 pm for areas that will not be as affected by
convection/cloud cover today. No other changes expected attm. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/

AVIATION...
An upper level disturbance across Eastern Oklahoma and Central
Arkansas was helping to produce some weak showers which may begin
approaching the TXK/ELD terminal airspace a little later this
morning. This precipitation would be falling out of a 12kft deck
so not sure if it`s even making it to the ground or not. This
activity should weaken in coverage and intensity through the mid
to late morning hours but the mid and high level cloud cover may
hang around through much of the day. Closer to the I-20 Corridor
terminal airspace, a mix of mid and high level cloud cover should
prevail today with a cu field developing by late morning into the
afternoon hours.

Have introduced VCTS in the evening and overnight hours for
terminals north of the I-20 Corridor and terminals along the
corridor as convection will be possible along and to the north of
a southward moving cold front. Left VCTS mention out of the
TYR/GGG terminals as coverage appears to be more widely scattered
through the overnight hours. Otherwise, expecting mostly VFR
conditions to prevail.

Southwest winds of 08/14kts will become variable just ahead of
the cold front late tonight with winds shifting around to a NNE
direction in the wake of the cold front during the day Sat.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another hot and humid day in store across the area, as overnight
lows only falling into the upper 70s to around 80 for all but
extreme northern portions of cwa. A heat advisory has been
reissued for the aftn hours for LA/TX portions of the area, with
heat index values likely exceeding 100 degrees across AR/OK
portions of area. A backdoor cool front will enter sw AR durg the
eve, where scattered convection will develop near this boundary.
Isold convection possible by late aftn north of I-20. With PW
possibly reaching near 2.5 inches near the frontal boundary,
locally heavy rainfall may occur at a few locations. Increased
northerly flow aloft may also create cold pooling outflow
boundaries and gusty winds near storms, mainly closer to peak
diurnal heating associated with storm development across mainly sw
AR portions of the area. Convective redevelopment Saturday will
be mainly south of I-20 durg the morning hours, with slightly
drier mid lvl air by aftn. For the remainder of the wknd, welcomed
reduction in humidity as dewpoints fall well into the 60s across
northern portions. A return to more seasonal heat, humidity, and
isold to scattered convection possible by the middle of next week
across the area.

/07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  92  70 /  20  40  30   0
MLU  95  77  89  67 /  20  40  40   0
DEQ  93  75  91  66 /  30  30  10   0
TXK  94  76  91  67 /  30  40  20   0
ELD  92  75  90  65 /  30  50  20   0
TYR  97  78  94  72 /  10  30  30   0
GGG  96  77  93  71 /  20  30  30   0
LFK  97  77  95  73 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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