Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 281701
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1201 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

North winds at KABI will become southerly at 6 to 12 knots this
afternoon, as a weak cold front lifts north. Elsewhere, expect
southwest winds to become southerly by mid afternoon. Stratus
development is expected to result in MVFR ceilings at the
southern 3 sites Saturday morning, becoming VFR by mid to late
morning. Confidence remains low that MVFR ceilings will occur at
KABI and KSJT, so for now VFR conditions were continued. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight, but confidence
is not high enough to include in the current TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Patchy MVFR cigs have moves into the southern terminals early this
morning, with high cloudiness above it making it difficult to see
just how far north it as spread. In any case, the low clouds
should be relatively short lived today and VFR conditions should
return by mid morning areawide. Gusty south and southwest winds
this morning will continue through around noon, with wind speeds
diminishing. A weak cold front should make it about as far south
at Abilene (KABI) late this morning, before stalling and then
shifting back to the south by late afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight
across West Central Texas, but with a great deal of uncertainty
about timing and location, will leave out of the forecast for now
and let later forecasts fine tune the threat.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper level trough over the Rockies will continue to drop south and
deepen, eventually closing off over Northern New Mexico by Saturday
morning. At the surface, a dryline will develop and surge into West
Central Texas this morning, likely reaching to near the eastern
border of the area by noon. Meanwhile, a weak cold front across the
Panhandle this morning will drop south into the Big Country.
Convergence along these boundaries will be maximized east of the
area for much of the day. However, as the dryline stalls and begins
to retreat late this afternoon and during this evening, the
convergence will shift back west into West Central Texas. GFS, and
to a lesser extent the ECMWF, show convective development across the
northern half of West Central Texas, with the best chances across
the northeast Big Country. High res models not as aggressive with
convective development and this leads to uncertainty in the
forecast. Thus, will leave the mention of isolated to scattered
showers and storms in the forecast for tonight.

Hot across the area behind the dryline today, with temperatures
climbing well into the 90s. GFS the most aggressive with
temperatures, with a slightly stronger downslope west and southwest
wind leading to warmer highs. Will not go quite as high as the GFS
but will be close.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Saturday Night)

The combination of a strong upper level low pressure system and a
cold front/dryline moving across the Southern Plains will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Looks like the
best chance for a few severe storms will be along and east of a
Abilene to Junction line due to moderate instability and decent
vertical wind shear. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. The rainfall amounts will remain mainly on the
light side. A pretty good range in temperatures on Saturday, with
highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s across the northern Big
Country to the mid to upper 80s across the Northwest Hill
Country.

(Sunday through Friday)

Much cooler across the area Sunday due to low level CAA behind cold
front. Highs will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, possibly even
cooler if low clouds develop across the area. Much warmer for Monday
and Tuesday as low level south to southwest flow returns. The
coolest night will be Sunday night as good radiational cooling sets
up. Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s, with a few upper 30s
possible in the river valleys and low lying areas. Another cold
front will move across West Central Texas Wednesday, and going
with slight chance Pops. Also, cooler Wednesday through Friday,
with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Lows will be in the 50s.

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire danger will continue today with the hot temperatures
and dry air mass allowing humidity values to drop under 20% for many
locations. Winds will start off gusty in the morning but will
decrease during the afternoon as humidity values drop. This will
keep conditions from approaching critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  66  73  44  66 /  30  30  40   5
San Angelo  68  82  46  71 /  20  20  30   0
Junction  71  87  48  73 /  10  20  50   5
Brownwood  70  81  47  69 /  20  40  50   5
Sweetwater  61  69  43  65 /  30  30  30   5
Ozona       69  80  45  71 /  20  20  30   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels


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