Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 022302
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus development is once again expected between 11z and 12z at
KJCT and KSOA, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Confidence remains low
at KSJT and KBBD, so VFR ceilings were continued, but brief MVFR
ceilings will be possible. Expect VFR conditions to return to all
sites by late morning Thursday. Light winds overnight will become
southeast at 5 to 10 knots Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours. Cloud cover will increase during the late
night/early morning hours south of a line from San Angelo to
Brady, with mainly clear skies expected across the remainder of
the forecast area. Afternoon cumulus will develop Thursday, much
like what we`ve seen the last few days.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)

Some hope of a pattern change for West Central Texas, but not until
the middle or end of next week. Until that happens, upper level
ridge will continue to dominate the pattern and keep the area hot
and dry. Readings very near normal will prevail into early next
week, with afternoon high in the mid 90s and morning lows in the low
to mid 70s.

Both the ECMWF and the GFS show the upper ridge finally breaking
down net week, although the GFS starts a few days faster. It drives
a cold front into the area for Wednesday, bringing widespread rain
chances. ECMWF is slower, with this occurring on Thursday Night and
Friday. Kept the isolated POPs in the northwest Big Country for
Tuesday already in place and expanded the area south a little for
Wednesday. Still kept the rain chances along and north of I-20 for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  94  72  93 /   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  70  96  72  93 /   5   5   5  10
Junction  69  93  72  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels



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