Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 270004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
604 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015

/00Z TAFS/

Expect widespread IFR ceilings during the next 24 hours. However,
a few hours of MVFR ceilings are possible this evening. Periods of
light rain with isolated thunderstorms will continue through
Friday. Confidence is low to mention VCTS at the terminals. Also,
an arctic cold front will move south across the area late tonight
and Friday. Behind the front, expect north winds with gusts to 25


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015/

(Tonight and Friday)


An area of rain will continue to move across West Central Texas
tonight. Can`t rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm this evening
with decent shear and CAPE Values near 900 J/KG.  This rain is
associated with an upper level disturbance crossing through the
region.  Most of the rain is light but a few areas could receive up
to an inch.  Meanwhile, the Arctic Front will be arriving a little
earlier tonight followed by sharply falling temperatures into the
30s.  The front should reach Interstate 20 around midnight, the
Concho Valley shortly before sunrise and I10 by noon tomorrow.

As the large potent upper low remains stationary across the
southwest U.S., a strong upper level jet will be positioned across
Far West Texas and the Panhandle tonight and Friday, placing West
Central Texas in a diffluent region at 3H and in the favored
entrance region of periodic high speed jet streaks.

The first shot of widespread rain and thunderstorms should be just
behind the Arctic front late tonight and continuing into Friday as
deep moisture from the gulf is lifted isentropically above the
frontal boundary. Models do show isentropic lift to continue behind
the front on Friday.  This lift should be further enhanced by
upper level diffluence and any jet streaks passing by to our
northwest, resulting in periods of heavy rain tomorrow. The models
continue to show a 850 MB front going stationary by tomorrow
afternoon from Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene. This boundary
could serve as focus for the development of heavy rainfall.
Rainfall amounts may average from 0.5 to 2.5 inches through
tomorrow at 6 PM.

(Friday Night through Thursday)

Continues to be a cold and wet period through the weekend. A
little more concerned about the potential for a little ice
accumulation on elevated surfaces, mainly Friday night and
Saturday morning along and west of a Sterling City to Sweetwater
to Haskell line. Temperatures may cool to around 30 in a few
locations, and some glaze is possible on trees and fences and
vehicles. However, with recent warm ground temperatures, still do
not expect any significant icing on roadways at this time. Will
need to closely monitor the situation however and if temperatures
fall another degree or two, then accumulation certainly looks more

Rainfall wise, the rain will continue. First heavier batch of rain
behind the front on Friday will give way to stead light to
moderate rainfall through the rest of the weekend. Could see a
second batch of heavier rain on Saturday as some of the remnants
from Sandra interact with the stalled 850mb front draped from San
Angelo to DFW. May need a flood watch out at that point, although
so far it looks like rainfall totals will be high, actual
rainfall rates may not be and flooding may be less of a concern.

System finally ends on Sunday, with models suggesting anther
shortwave and a chance of rain mid week. Will deal with that one
in more detail after we get through this one, but will include a
mention of small PoPs.


Abilene  37  37  32  36 /  90  90  90  90
San Angelo  39  39  33  37 /  60  90  90  90
Junction  67  68  37  38 /  70  90  80  80


.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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