461
FXUS64 KSJT 051133
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
633 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Main area of convection exiting the eastern portions of the area
early this morning as the shortwave that helped produce it moves
through the area. Air mass has been worked over pretty well over
the last few days, and although it remains unstable, absence of
upper level support will make it tough to get convective
redevelopment this afternoon. Most likely area to see more storms
redevelop will south along I-10, where CAPE vales this afternoon
will be 3000+ instead of the 1000-2000 farther north across the
Big Country. Latest CAMs show a few showers or storms this
afternoon across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau and will
keep some POPs down there to account for this.

Will cancel the Flash Flood Watch early however, with the main
threat of heavy rain ending with the convection this morning.
However, roadways across the Heartland may remain flooded and
impassable until the floodwater from the rainfall on Saturday
slowly recedes.

Wet soils will lead to a little bit of fog formation late Sunday
night into Monday morning and have added a mention into the
forecast. Otherwise, mild conditions to end the weekend with highs
in the 70s and 80s today and lows in the 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

By 12Z Monday, a strong negatively tilted trough will begin to move
out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains. As this begins to
move east, the trough axis will extend south into our area. A
dryline, extending from the surface low in Colorado to the Texas Big
Bend will begin to mix east through the day on Monday. By 21Z, the
dryline should be moving into our western counties. Given the moist
and unstable airmass ahead of the dryline, showers and storms will
be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly for
areas east of an Anson to Junction line. SPC has outlined northern
portions of the Big Country in a Day 2 Marginal Risk with their
Slight Risk just clipping portions of Throckmorton County. While a
significantly better chance for severe weather will be well off to
our north in south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma where the
better upper level support and shear will exist, enough shear and
instability will be co-located in the Big Country to warrant a
chance for severe weather. Further south, shear will be weaker and
mid/upper level support wanes so the severe threat looks to
decrease, though some strong storms cannot be ruled out. Storms
should move fairly quickly off to the east with chances for storms
ending after 00Z Tuesday. With skies expected to clear from west to
east during the day Monday, warmer temperatures are expected to
reside in the Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and western
Big Country, where highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.
Far western portions of the area could even approach the mid 90s
should the dryline make a bit more progress during the day,
allowing for more warm, downsloping westerlies. Further east,
temperatures will be near normal in the low to mid 80s.

Warm and dry conditions are expected through mid-week. The dryline
is not expected to make a large scale retreat during the overnight
hours Tuesday and Wednesday, meaning it can make further eastward
progress during the day. West to southwest winds behind the dryline
will usher in much warmer and drier air. At the same time, the
850 mb thermal ridge will begin to build back into our area.
Combining these factors with mostly sunny skies, this will allow
for a warming trend with highs by Wednesday ranging from the upper
80s in the Big Country to the upper 90s across the Concho Valley
and I-10 corridor.

By late Wednesday, a dry cold front will start to move into northern
portions of the CWA. This should continue to move through the area
during the day before exiting to our south later in the day on
Thursday. Timing this far out is still a bit subjective but the
front will bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. While operational models tend to
keep the area dry behind the cold front through Saturday,
ensemble guidance is hinting at slight chances for showers and
storms as low level moisture begins to make its way back into the
region with the potential return of southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Convection has pushed east, and left a mixture of low, mid, and
high clouds across West Central Texas terminals. Most areas will
eventually fill in with at least MVFR cigs my mid morning, with
some improving to VFR cigs for the afternoon. Low level moisture
remains in place however and cigs will drop again tonight with fog
and MVFR/IFR cigs redeveloping after midnight. Will not mention
any convection in the terminals at this point, but a few storms
are possible. Given the uncertainty in timing and location, will
opt to just hold off and monitor the development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77  65  87  62 /  20  10  10   0
San Angelo  81  66  90  64 /  20  10  10   0
Junction    82  67  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
Brownwood   77  65  84  66 /  20  10  20   0
Sweetwater  77  65  88  61 /  20  10  10   0
Ozona       79  66  88  65 /  30  10  10   0
Brady       77  66  83  68 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...07