Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 240428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

/06Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather to continue until around 18Z
tomorrow. Thunderstorms are slowly moving south, and they will
dissipate around 07Z. Then, watch for MVFR ceilings to develop.
Conditions should return to VFR by 18Z tomorrow, with winds from
the northeast.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

/00Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather to develop during the next 12
hours. Thunderstorms, in advance of an approaching cold front,
will continue to spread south, from the north, tonight. The cold
front will likely be near or just south of the Interstate 20
corridor, in the Big Country, by midnight. Then, expect MVFR
ceilings to develop after midnight, across all of West Central

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day across West Central Texas, with both the upper level
ridge in place as well as the low level thermal ridge. Temperatures
currently 103 to 109 across the southern 2/3 of West Central Texas,
with San Angelo hitting 109 and breaking the previous record by 3
degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across much of this area
until 8 PM. Also, isolated storms have developed close to a cold
front across the South Plains, just northwest of the Big Country.
Looks like best chance for scattered thunderstorms will be across
the Big Country this evening, possibly as far south to along a San
Angelo to Brownwood line, according to Hi-Res models. A few strong
to marginal severe storms are possible, with the main hazards of
wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, small hail and dangerous lightning.
Going with the highest Pops across the Big Country(likely) and
chance Pops further south. The cold front will move south across the
area tonight, and be located just north of the I-10 corridor by
Saturday morning. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across
the Big Country to lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

For Saturday, expect much cooler temperatures with highs mainly in
the 80s. Also, the combination of weak instability and abundant low
level moisture will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The main hazards will be dangerous lightning and gusty winds.

(Saturday night through Friday)

Cooler Saturday night into Monday with weak surface high pressure
over the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected with
northwest flow aloft and upslope easterly surface winds. Severe
storms are not expected with GFS SBCAPES around 1500 J/KG Sunday
and Monday, though a strong thunderstorm or two possible.

Upper ridging builds in Tuesday with surface winds shifting the
south. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday, but dry and
warming conditions will continue Wednesday into Friday as upper
ridging redevelops. A cold front may approach the region late
Friday night and bring a thunderstorm or two in the Big Country,
but confidence is low at this time.


Abilene  68  79  67  80 /  20  40  50  50
San Angelo  73  85  69  82 /  30  30  50  50
Junction  75  89  70  85 /  40  30  30  50
Brownwood  72  81  68  81 /  20  40  30  50
Sweetwater  67  77  66  78 /  20  30  50  50
Ozona       74  88  70  85 /  50  30  30  40



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