Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 220443
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1043 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
San Angelo VAD was indicating NW winds of 45 KTS in the lowest
gate at 430Z. As 850 MB winds increase to 40-45 KTS across the CWA
in the models, LLWS (low level wind shear) was added to all the
terminals through 12Z, at which time the LLWS begins to weaken.
West winds otherwise shift northwest mid morning. NW wind gusts
to 26 KTS at KABI mid morning through mid morning could produce
cross wind problems on south to north runways.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A band of blowing dust, moving through KABI at 23Z with 2 miles
visibility, was moving east, and visibilities should improve to
VFR 00Z or shortly after. West winds gusting to 30 KTS at KABI and
25 KTS at KSJT at 23Z should weaken about 5 KTS this evening.
However, they should not completely decouple, as 850 MB west
winds actually increase to 40-45 KTS this evening. If indeed the
winds do decouple, however, an update for low level wind shear
may be needed. West winds will shift to northwest by Monday
morning. There may be some cross wind problems at KABI late
morning and afternoon,on south to north runways. as northwest
winds gust to 26 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Monday)

.Gusty west winds through this evening...

Gusty west winds continue to move into the area this afternoon.
Although the winds haven`t quite reached advisory criteria across
the entire advisory yet, gusts over 40 mph are right on the
doorstep of our entire western border and have made it into the
Sweetwater area. These winds will continue to move east into our
area, affecting the Big Country area especially between now and
sunset this evening. Since these winds are due to a combination
of a strong surface pressure gradient, and mixing, expect that
once mixing with the stronger winds aloft decreases around sunset,
winds will also quickly decrease.

For tonight, temperatures will be cooler for overnight lows as the
Pacific cold front will be east of the area, and will be followed
up by a second push of colder air moving in from the north.
Expect lows from the low to mid 30s for most of the area.

Tomorrow will be cooler and breezy again, but still not quite as
windy as this afternoon is expected to be. The upper level low
will be moving to the northeast into the Great Lakes region. This
will put us in northwest flow from the surface through the
mid/upper levels, allowing the stronger winds aloft to make it to
the surface. Northwest winds should pick up to 15 to 25 mph by
late morning and continue through the afternoon hours, as highs
warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)

Quiet weather with seasonal temperatures...

Upper level ridging will settle across much of the central CONUS
Tuesday through Thursday. Expect quiet and dry weather across much
of West Central Texas with daytime highs in the low to mid 60s and
overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. By Friday, an upper level
low will begin to move out of the Rockies and track across the
southern plains during the day on Friday. At the surface, a cold
front will be moving across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle. Ahead of
this front, low level moisture will be present across much of the
eastern half of the region. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible across Brown, San Saba and Mason
counties during the afternoon on Friday. The cold front will move
through the area Friday night and will knock temperatures down a
few degrees for Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper
50s to low 60s.

FIRE WEATHER...

Winds continue to increase across the area. West/southwest winds
of 30 knots gusting to around 40 knots at times have moved into
Nolan County, and will continue to move east across the rest of
the Big Country this afternoon. Farther south, the stronger west
winds have been slower to develop, but have begun to move into the
Sterling County area, and should continue to move east across the
Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau through the rest of the
afternoon. Drier air is moving in as well, and RH`s have dropped
to near 20 percent or lower across the entire western half of the
CWA. Expect Red Flag conditions to begin affecting most of the Red
Flag Warning area within the next hour or two.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are also
expected for Monday as gusty northwest winds affect the area.
Although temperatures will be cooler, drier air will allow RH`s to
fall to less than 20 percent area wide. Another Red Flag Warning
may be needed, especially for areas north and east of a Roby to
Abilene to Brownwood line where winds are expected to be closest
to Red Flag levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  36  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  36  59  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  37  61  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  36  60  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  35  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       35  59  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04


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