Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 180530
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1130 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Expect widespread low ceilings and IFR conditions at the terminals
through the first half of the TAF forecast period. Also, patchy
fog developing this morning will result in MVFR vsbys. There will
be some improvement Wednesday afternoon as ceilings rise to MVFR
category.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect widespread low ceilings and IFR conditions at the terminals
through much of this TAF forecast period. Also, patchy fog
developing later this evening will result in MVFR/IFR vsbys. There
will be some improvement Wednesday afternoon and ceilings rise to
MVFR category.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Large area of showers and embedded thunderstorms continue across much
of West Central Texas this afternoon. Warm advection over the top of
the cold frontal boundary that moved through overnight is combining
with lift from the approaching upper level low moving into New
Mexico. Have seen indications of a little small hail with some of
the stronger storms, but air mass is just not unstable enough to
allow for large hail. Thus, the severe threat remains low.

Same pattern continues into the evening hours, so fairly widespread
showers and storms will continue. Have boosted PoPs to account for
current radar trends and the trends from the latest mesoscale models
like the HRRR. Main area of lift starts to push east and decrease
after midnight, but may linger in the southeast counties past
sunrise. Will continue the mention of small PoPs for tomorrow for
areas roughly southeast of a Brownwood to Brady to Menard line.

Cool this afternoon, but with the ongoing rain and dewpoints in the
upper 30s and lower 40s, little room for temperatures to drop
overnight. Lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s looks reasonable.
Warmer on Wednesday afternoon as clouds break and we see quite a bit
of sun.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

.Windy on Sunday...

Surface high pressure over West Central Texas Wednesday night
will move east, with south winds returning by Thursday morning.
Breezy southwest winds are expected by midday Thursday and on
Friday... along and north of a San Angelo to Brownwood line...as a
surface low develops in the Panhandle. Went closer to the warmer
GFS MOS temperatures Thursday and Friday given downslope
compressional winds.

While the first surface low will move northeast Friday night, a
second surface low will develop in the Panhandle Saturday and move
east across Oklahoma Sunday. A few showers possible Saturday and
Saturday night as an upper low also moves across the region.

A strong pressure gradient will exist Sunday as the surface low
moves across Oklahoma, with strong west to northwest winds of 20
to 30 mph...with possible 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts in the
Big Country.

Lows Monday morning will be near freezing as a weak cold front
moves into the region and winds become light. Dry with a warm up
into the 60s Monday and Tuesday as south winds return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  36  57  43  67 /  80  10   5   0
San Angelo  38  59  42  71 /  70  10   5   5
Junction  42  60  43  72 /  80  30   5   5
Brownwood  42  55  41  69 /  80  20   5   5
Sweetwater  37  59  43  66 /  70   5   5   0
Ozona       37  59  40  71 /  60  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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