Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 060445
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
845 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2015

.Synopsis...
Warm daytime temperatures will continue into early next week
under ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. Daytime highs
over the weekend will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
nighttime low temperatures around normal. High temperatures
returning to closer to normal by the middle of next week with
possible return of precipitation.

&&

.Discussion...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over Northern
California into the weekend with dry conditions and warming
temperatures each day. Its not likely that we would see any
fog develop again for tomorrow morning giving the dry conditions.
Temperatures should cool off overnight into the upper 30s and
lower 40s for most locations in the central valley. The mountain
valleys will continue to be cold the next couple of nights cooling
into the upper teens to mid 20s each night. We may see some haze
develop over the weekend under the stagnant conditions that
should persist into the first part of next week. Temperatures
will warm a little each day and may become 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal normal`s by Saturday. A few spots over the far north end
of the valley may warm up to around 80 degrees for Friday and
this weekend...with generally mid 70s for the remainder of the
valley this weekend.
&&


.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)

Very warm temperatures linger into Monday with little change from
the weekend, as the ridge axis slowly shifts eastward. Several
degrees of cooling is evident on Tuesday, as the ridge flattens
and exits to the east. A cold upper upper low off the coast
approaches the coast spreading a band of precipitation into the
area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Models diverge even more than
previously after this point. with the GFS quickly moving it through
to the northeast and drying things Thursday night and Friday. On the
other hand...the ECMWF gradually moves the core of the low over
California on Friday bringing lowering snow levels, additional
precipitation and the potential for thunderstorms. So there could
be several days of stormy weather or just a quick shot that
affects mainly the northern mountains. The Canadian GEM is showing
another alternative, looking like something of a blend of the
other 2 extended models. For now, will continue a chance of
precipitation into Thursday night. Will lean towards NAEFS
ensembles for now, and wait to see if there is a clearer solution
for late next week. EK

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions over the interior through Friday.



&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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