Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 282049
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
149 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS. INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
INTERIOR NORCAL. TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO ON THE WAY TO WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY
AND 80S/90S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FLOW HAS SUBSIDED A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SIERRA MTS/FOOTHILLS THOUGH
THRU WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MAY PROVIDE ONLY MINOR RELIEF TO HEAT-
SENSITIVE GROUPS. THE DELTA BREEZE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY THOUGH
SO PORTIONS OF THE DELTA AND SOUTH VALLEY MAY SOME RELIEF THURSDAY
PM AND FRIDAY.

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A NORTHWARD PUSH FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL REMAINS LEADING TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST DEALING WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE.

CEO

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS
COOLING A FEW DEGREES FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH LOW TO MID 90S IN
CENTRAL VALLEY AND NEAR 100 ACROSS NORTHERN SAC VALLEY. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH THE CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE
EXTENDED. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WHILE ECMWF SHUNTS THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS A BIT IN QUESTION SO HAVE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM TSTORMS ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS INTO EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED
ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS MODELS BETTER RESOLVE
INCREASING MOISTURE.

CEO


&&

.AVIATION...

BLDG HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDS OVR INTR NORCAL NXT 24 HRS EXC LCL
MVFR VSBY POSS VCNTY OF FIRES (LOWELL, WRAGG). LCL GSTY N-E SFC
WND POSS OVR NRN AND ERN FTHLS/MTNS TNGT INTO WED MRNG.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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