Area Forecast Discussion
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963
FXUS62 KTAE 172312
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
612 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the night at all but ABY and
VLD where IFR visibilities are expected later. Restrictions should
clear all terminals within a couple hours after sunrise. Gusty
winds and low clouds will overspread the region from the west in
the late afternoon, but should stay just barely VFR. Expect winds
to gust between 20-25 knots, especially west of TLH and ABY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [251 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging will build across our area tonight, resulting in
continued dry conditions. This will also lead to a favorable
radiational cooling setup as winds become light to calm and skies
remain mostly clear. As temperatures cool to near the dewpoint,
patchy fog is possible overnight through the early morning hours,
mainly across our eastern areas where winds should become calm. Low
temperatures will drop to the mid-upper 40s across SW Georgia, most
of SE Alabama, and the FL Big Bend. Lows in the lower-mid 50s are
expected across much of the FL Panhandle, where winds are less
likely to become calm as the surface high gradually shifts eastward.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The short wave trough over the Great Basin will sweep east across
the country this weekend reaching the Eastern Seaboard Sunday
night. The frontal system associated with this feature will cross
the forecast area Saturday night, reaching Coffee County around
03Z Sunday and exiting Dixie County around 12Z. Timing of this
system has been quite consistent from run to run and among the
various models. Before the front arrives, Saturday will be fair
and warm with highs in the upper 70s. PoPs Saturday night are in
the 50-60% range. Cooler air will arrive behind the system for
Sunday and Sunday night with temps at mid-winter levels. Look for
highs Sunday in the 60s with lows overnight in the 30s. It is
possible that areas north of Albany could approach freezing.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The dry air mass will be in place through Monday as surface high
pressure moves east across the Southeast. The 12Z Euro and GFS are
in much better agreement in how they depict the development of a
gulf low next week. Both are now diving a short wave all the way
to the Bay of Campeche before pivoting an upper trough across the
Gulf of Mexico. The Euro remains the more energetic of the two
models and slower to clear the system east. Both models develop a
surface low mid-gulf, and track it inland around Tampa Bay with
energy then transferring to an Atlantic system off South
Carolina. PoP distribution will show higher PoPs south, closer to
the low, but for now we will keep them in the 30-40% range for
most areas from Wednesday through Thanksgiving day into Friday.
Unfortunately, if the Euro verifies, Thursday and Friday could be
fairly soggy days.


.MARINE...

Light east winds will veer to the south and increase ahead of a
cold front on Saturday. After a cold frontal wind shift, offshore
winds will increase to advisory thresholds Saturday night. Winds
will then remain elevated through Sunday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected for the next several
days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Dry conditions will continue through most of Saturday. Rainfall
associated with the next frontal system Saturday night into Sunday
morning will be light with no flooding concerns. A Gulf Low next
week has the potential to bring heavy rain to our Florida counties
toward the end of the week, but recent dry weather should mitigate
and flooding concerns then as well.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   46  78  54  65  37 /   0   0  60  10   0
Panama City   53  77  54  64  41 /   0  20  60   0   0
Dothan        47  78  48  62  34 /   0  10  50   0   0
Albany        46  78  50  61  35 /   0   0  50   0   0
Valdosta      47  77  54  64  36 /   0   0  60  10   0
Cross City    47  78  57  70  36 /   0   0  50  40   0
Apalachicola  53  76  56  67  41 /   0   0  60  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Wool



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