Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 300802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
402 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

This evening`s surface and upper-air analyses showed a deep-layer
ridge over the Southeast, and a rather intense deep-layer trough
over the Southern Plains. Q-G forcing and deep layer moisture will
gradually increase across our forecast area as this trough
approaches. However, there is good consensus among the various NWP
guidance that rain chances will remain low, and mainly limited to
west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers later this afternoon.
High temperatures will still be above average, with highs in the mid
to upper 80s inland, and lower to mid 70s at the beaches.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across the Tri-state
region tonight into early Friday ahead of a cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms could be strong to severe. SPC has outlined an area
for a slight risk from just east of Albany to around Apalachicola
westward and most of the remainder of our CWA in a marginal risk
for severe weather. Deep layer shear (0 - 6 km) values are still
forecast to exceed 50 kts, but instability appears to be the
limiting factor. Latest guidance from high res models show highest
CAPE (~ 1200 J/kg) along the panhandle coast. The main severe
weather threat will be damaging straight line winds but an
isolated tornado is also possible. The convection should be
weakening as it moves across the eastern Florida Big Bend and
south-central Georgia after daybreak. By afternoon all convection
should move east out of our FA with a drier airmass filtering in
on northerly winds behind the front. Lows tonight will range from
the low-mid 60s cooling into the lower 50s for friday night. Highs
Friday will be in the lower to mid 80s and on Saturday in the mid
to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Dry weather with above seasonal temps will continue through the
weekend. Another deep low pressure system will develop rapidly
over the southern Plains and central Gulf coast late Sunday
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to our area
Sunday night and Monday. This system will also have to be
monitored closely for the potential for severe weather. The upper
low and surface low are forecast to be much further south than
it`s predecessor with a strong mid-level jet and very high bulk
shear values (70+). Rain should end by late Monday with mostly dry
conditions returning Tuesday through Wednesday. The approach and
passage of another cold front will bring more rain to our area
Wednesday night and Thursday. Temps will continue above seasonal


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

There is good agreement among the latest statistical and dynamical
guidance in there being minimal fog and low clouds overnight. The
00Z KTAE sounding and recent surface obs show that the PBL dried
compared to 24 hours ago, so this forecast seems reasonable. By late
morning S winds will increase to 10 to 15 KT with gusts of 20 to 25
KT. SHRA/TSRA will move into KDHN and KECP from the west, ahead of
an approaching cold front, between 03Z and 06Z.



Winds will be light to moderate from the south today possibly
increasing to advisory levels tonight as a cold front approaches
the local waters. Winds and seas will subside behind the front
Friday through the weekend. A stronger system may move into our
area early next week, with advisory level conditions possible
across our marine areas Sunday night into Monday.



Deep mixing and moderate transport winds will drive dispersion
values above 75 in some locations this afternoon. There is a good
chance of wetting rain Thursday night and Friday as a cold front
moves through.



Multiple systems are expected to produce showers and thunderstorms
across our area over the next several days; the first will move
through tonight, with additional chances on Monday and during the
middle of next week. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible with
each system, although the first one on Thursday night does not
look likely to cause flooding. Heavier rainfall is possible with
both systems next week, although since they are several days out
significant uncertainty remains with the location and intensity of
heaviest rain.



Tallahassee   84  64  84  53  87 /  10  50  50   0   0
Panama City   76  67  77  59  79 /  20  70  30   0   0
Dothan        84  62  81  53  86 /  20  80  20   0   0
Albany        86  64  82  53  85 /  10  70  50   0   0
Valdosta      87  62  84  53  87 /  10  30  40   0   0
Cross City    85  62  83  53  85 /  10  20  40   0   0
Apalachicola  77  66  77  59  79 /  10  60  50   0   0






NEAR TERM...Fournier
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