Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 101450
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1050 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis showed a cold front moving across
Southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Since analysis
time, this front has moved past Tallahassee and is approaching
Valdosta. The drier (and slightly cooler) air is lagging the front
by quite a bit and is located back across Western AL and MS.
Aloft, at 12 UTC the shortwave trough was over Middle Tennessee
and vapor imagery shows this feature moving off to the east
toward the Carolinas.
Though the initial batch of showers with the front are moving out
of the area, some of the models generate a few showers this
afternoon, mainly ahead of a piece of energy rotating around the
base of the trough. The most recent hi-res guidance from between
09z and 13z would suggest rain chances in the 20 to 30 percent
range in the Florida Big Bend this afternoon, so will keep that in
the forecast for now. High temperatures should easily reach the
mid 80s today, with some spots in the Fla Big Bend making it to
the upper 80s.
[Through 12Z Sunday]...VFR conditions are expected throughout the
period. The advancing MVFR deck from Central Alabama should
scatter before reaching DHN this afternoon.
.Prev Discussion [606 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
By this evening the front will likely have cleared all but our
southeast Big Bend counties, but will do so there by dawn on
Sunday. Only a slight chance of rain will exist before 2am. For
the remainder of the short term, PoPs are not forecast. The only
forecast challenge of note will be on Sunday when low clouds will
likely spread in from the northeast. The main concern with this
will be how it affects high temperatures across south Georgia and
southeast Alabama, and if the deck ends up scattering late in the
afternoon. For now, will advertise slightly cooler temperatures in
these locations on Sunday, around the middle 70s. Elsewhere, highs
will climb to near 80 degrees. Sunday night will introduce upper
50s across all interior locations, with low 60s along the coast.
Highs will rebound into the lower 80s on Monday, with mostly clear
.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Another shortwave is forecast to move through the Southeast on
Tuesday, bringing with it another cold front. At this time it
appears as though only a scattering of showers should be expected
along the front through the day Tuesday. Otherwise, the remainder
of the extended forecast will be dry. Temperatures will run near
average during the afternoons, and slightly below average (upper
50s) each night.
Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next
several days. A few showers will be possible this evening and once
again on Tuesday night.
Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
the period. Patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible this
morning and again tomorrow morning.
The little rain expected today and on Tuesday will have no
significant impact on area rivers or streams.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 87 65 80 58 82 / 30 20 10 0 0
Panama City 84 67 79 62 79 / 20 10 0 0 0
Dothan 83 63 77 57 82 / 10 10 0 0 0
Albany 84 63 77 58 82 / 10 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 85 64 77 59 81 / 40 20 10 0 10
Cross City 87 67 81 60 82 / 30 30 10 10 10
Apalachicola 84 68 79 62 79 / 30 30 0 10 0