Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 230740
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
240 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Much quieter weather will prevail today across the region, as
cleanup from yesterday`s severe weather event continues today.
Mostly cloudy conditions are expected through this afternoon,with
noticeably cooler conditions and a chance for light showers. The
upper level low responsible for the severe weather event across the
south and southeast will begin to eject out of the region during the
day. This will bring a slight chance for light showers across
portions of south Georgia this morning, prior to drier air
prevailing this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected with this
activity. Winds are expected to increase from west to east this
morning through the afternoon hours, as high winds aloft from this
system mix down to the surface. Sustained winds will generally range
between 20 to 30 mph, with occasional higher gusts. A wind advisory
has been issued for the entire region through mid-afternoon.
Survey crews will be dispatched across the region from our office
today, with the emphasis on the two stronger tornadoes in south GA
which caused multiple injuries and fatalities yesterday.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Surface high pressure will slide across the northern Gulf of
Mexico maintaining northwesterly winds Tuesday then southwesterly
winds Wednesday as the high moves by. Upstream, the next cold
front will be at our doorstep by the end of the period.
Temperatures will remain cool Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper
60s and a brief warmup Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s. Dry
weather will be the rule this period with only a slight increase
in rain chances Wednesday afternoon across SE AL and the western
FL panhandle as the next front nears.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The cold front swings through Thursday bringing with it a chance
for rain. Canadian high pressure builds in with cooler
temperatures and highs Friday in the 50s to lower 60s. Mid/upper
flow becomes zonal across the southeast CONUS next weekend so not
much in the way of temperature advection so the cooler weather
will last through the weekend.
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...
Clear conditions to prevail through the next few hours before MVFR
CIGS move into the region from west to east. -SHRA will be possible
over DHN and ABY from 9Z to 12Z before clearing. Otherwise, sky
conditions will improve late this afternoon, with VFR conditions
prevailing into the evening hours. Strong westerly to west-
northwesterly winds will prevail through the period, with speeds
generally 15-20 kts and gusts 25-30 kts through this evening.
Gale conditions will continue this morning with small craft
advisories needed this afternoon and tonight. High pressure will
build across the coastal waters behind the departing low pressure
system. More favorable marine conditions will return beginning
Drier and windy conditions are expected across the region today.
However, RH`s and fuel moisture will remain well above critical
thresholds, precluding red flag conditions. Elevated transport and
20 foot winds, as well as sufficient mixing heights will yield
marginally high dispersions (70 to 75) across much of the region
from late morning through mid afternoon today.
Many of the river basins across the Tri-State region are in or
forecasted to be in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee River at
Newton is in moderate flood currently and the Choctawhatchee River
at Bruce is forecast to reach major flood stage this weekend.
Across the other basins, minor flooding is forecasted. Little
precipitation is expected through Thursday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 43 68 46 76 / 10 0 0 0 10
Panama City 64 49 64 56 73 / 10 0 0 0 10
Dothan 61 42 65 47 74 / 10 0 0 0 20
Albany 61 43 66 44 74 / 20 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 63 43 67 44 74 / 10 0 0 0 10
Cross City 65 44 68 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 66 48 65 54 73 / 10 0 0 0 10
FL...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-
AL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Apalachee Bay or
Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.