Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261111
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
611 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Northerly
winds this morning will become easterly by mid to late morning
around 7-10kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [303 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A cold front that pushed through the CWA yesterday/last night was
stretched across the Florida peninsula this morning. Drier air has
filtered into the area behind the front. Based on current dew point
trends, have nudged dew points down a few degrees today, especially
across the north. In addition, the cooler air has been a bit slower
than expected so have increased lows this morning a few degrees,
mainly across the eastern portion of the CWA.

High pressure will dominate today allowing for clear, dry conditions
across the CWA. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, more normal for
late February. Overall, it should be a pleasant day.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The dry and cool airmass will remain in place across our area
tonight, but it will be short-lived as an upper level ridge
replaces zonal flow aloft, and southerly flow develops on the
western edge of high pressure at the surface from Monday through
Tuesday. This will bring humid and increasingly warm conditions
back to our area, with highs in the mid-upper 70s Monday and
mainly lower 80s Tuesday, along with dewpoints rising into the
lower-mid 60s. Forcing will be weak aside from some isentropic
lift on Monday afternoon/early evening, along with mediocre
instability (a few hundred J/kg of CAPE). This will result in
slight to low-end chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly across SE Alabama, the western FL Panhandle, and parts of
SW Georgia. Otherwise, most of our area will remain dry through
the majority of this period.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Unseasonably warm conditions (highs reaching the low-mid 80s)
will persist through Wednesday as an upper level ridge continues
to build across the eastern CONUS and southerly flow continues
over our area. The best chances for precipitation will come
overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning as a cold front moves
across our area; modest instability will lead to a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms across our area.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain elevated today through tonight, with
easterly winds from 15 to 20 knots today becoming southeasterly
tonight. Winds could slightly exceed 20 knots tonight, so a small
craft advisory may be needed but will hold off on an advisory for
now. Winds will decrease slightly on Monday, and generally remain
at 10 to 15 knots from the southeast or south through Wednesday. A
cold front will result in increasing winds and seas on Wednesday
night and Thursday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air has filtered into the area behind the front that moved
through yesterday. RH values will drop into the upper teens to lower
20 percent range this afternoon, however winds and fuels will not
reach critical levels. Moisture will increase for first half of the
week.


.HYDROLOGY...

The Choctawhatchee River is currently cresting in action stage
near Caryville and will rise through action stage near Bruce
during the next couple days. However, it is projected to remain
below flood stage at Bruce as well. There will be a few chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms during early to middle
portions of the week, but no widespread heavy rain is anticipated.
Therefore, no flooding is expected for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  46  77  59  82 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   67  55  72  63  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
Dothan        66  46  74  60  80 /   0   0  30  20  10
Albany        66  44  76  58  81 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      69  46  79  59  83 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    73  47  81  59  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
Apalachicola  68  56  73  63  76 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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