Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240536
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1236 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

VFR through the period with light northwest winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [610 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At 18Z, the cold front was just east of a line from Valdosta, GA
to Perry, FL. Cold air advection will continue into the overnight
hours, allowing lows to dip into the 30s tonight, with the
coolest temperatures in southeast Alabama.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Dry weather will prevail through the short term. An upper level
shortwave will pass north of the area Wednesday night with little
impact given the dry airmass in place. High pressure centered
across the lower MS Valley on Wednesday will slide eastward to
the Carolinas by Thursday night. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area
with overnight lows mainly in the 30s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Some model disagreement is evident this weekend with the 12z GFS
tracking an area of low pressure farther south over the northeast
Gulf on Saturday night into Sunday compared to the 12z ECMWF and
Canadian. This results in the heaviest rainfall staying just
offshore in the GFS, with the ECMWF and Canadian models showing
much needed moderate to heavy rainfall farther to the north
across inland areas. The 12z GFS ensemble mean is a bit heavier
than the GFS across inland areas, and the 12z GFS may be somewhat
of a southern outlier. Rain chances look likely for Saturday night
into Sunday. Even if a more northerly low track pans out,
instability looks very marginal and thunderstorm chances appear to
be confined to offshore at this time. Clearing is expected behind
the system on Monday with near average temperatures.


.MARINE...

Northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected tonight behind a
cold front, and small craft should exercise caution. Winds will
gradually veer to northeast by Thursday and then easterly on
Friday. Periods of cautionary to advisory level winds near 20
knots are expected through the weekend. A period of heavy rain is
also possible Saturday night into Sunday as an area of low
pressure moves across the northeast Gulf.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A drier airmass has filtered into the Tri-State area behind a cold
frontal passage this morning. Near critical afternoon relative
humidity values are possible Thursday but winds will preclude any
fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Some much needed rainfall is likely on Saturday night into Sunday
as an area of low pressure moves across the northeast Gulf. While
there remains some uncertainty with rainfall amounts, there is
potential for the system to produce widespread 1-2 inch amounts
with locally heavier totals. Should this occur, it would be
beneficial rainfall with the ongoing drought conditions.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   60  33  63  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  38  61  41  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  31  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  33  61  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  34  61  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  34  63  36  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  58  38  60  41  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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