Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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688
FXUS65 KVEF 221031
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
330 AM PDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...For the upcoming week, dry weather can be expected for
the Mojave Desert with temperatures peaking well above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday before dropping about ten degrees by Friday. A
weak disturbance will produce slight chances for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms across the southern Sierra and southern Great
Basin Wednesday along with gusty southwest to west winds for much of
the region.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday.

The weak wave and associated front that pushed through southern
Nevada late Sunday evening managed to produce northeast winds
gusting 15 to 25 mph with some local brief gusts of 30-35 mph.
These winds were pushing down the Colorado River Valley early this
morning. The latest high res models are in good agreement with
sustained north-northeast winds of 10-15 mph across much of the
forecast area this morning with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph
concentrated between from Lake Mohave to Lake Havasu. There may be a
brief lull for some spots around sunrise then winds will pick up as
the boundary layer mixes out by mid morning. Speeds will gradually
decrease in the afternoon.

An amplified ridge along the West Coast will nose inland today and
Tuesday and will boost temperatures well above normal with highs
easily reaching 100 degrees or higher for many Mojave Desert sites
by Tuesday...including Las Vegas. Conditions now appear more stable
over the southern Sierra today and Tuesday and the mention of slight
chances for thunderstorms has been replaced with only showers.  The
forecast models indicate the ridge will break down Wednesday as a
trough over the Pacific Northwest moves inland, but temperatures
will stay similar to or slightly higher than Tuesday`s values. This
trough also pulls in a weak disturbance ejecting out of a low off
the California Coast and brings it across the southern Sierra and
southern Great Basin Wednesday afternoon and evening for possible
showers and thunderstorms across parts of Inyo, Esmeralda, central
Nye and Lincoln counties. We could also see isolated showers in the
Spring Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Southwest to west
winds will also increase with gusts possibly approaching 40 mph near
Barstow Wednesday afternoon and 25-30 mph elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Series of mid level disturbances will rotate around a trough
situated over much of the western US Thursday through early
Saturday. This pattern will remain mostly dry with periods of breezy
conditions and a slight increase in cloud cover over central Nevada.
The western Mojave Desert will have the best chance for some higher
gusts, especially Thursday evening and Thursday night when there
will be potential for gusts of around 40 mph. Temps are expected to
be on a downward trend during the second half the week reaching back
near seasonal norms. Ridge builds in along the west coast Saturday
and Sunday with temps once again on the rise but good news is the
holiday weekend will see lighter winds and clear to mostly clear
skies. An isolated shower or rumble of thunder will be possible over
the southern Sierra in the higher elevations this weekend as
moisture, lift, and moderate instability will be present with better
chances remaining on western slopes.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Northeast to east wind components will
prevail today. Speeds may drop to less than 6 knots around sunrise
then increase again 10-20 knots from mid morning through early
afternoon before gradually decreasing. Typical light diurnal winds
will return tonight and Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Northeast winds of 10-20 knots will occur this morning
across much of the region, with gusts of 20-30 knots from Laughlin-
Bullhead City to Lake Havasu. Speeds will diminish this afternoon
and generally light winds across the region can be expected tonight
and Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...No significant weather is expected
through Tuesday. A few thunderstorms will be possible over the
southern Sierra and central Nevada zones Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Spotter activation is not anticipated, but spotters are
encourage to provide reports according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Adair
Long Term...Guillet

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