Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 040349
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
849 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
MOVE SLOWLY INLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS NEVADA ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO PROVIDE SOME COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THEIR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOHAVE
COUNTY KICKED OFF BY CONVECTION NEAR BAGDAD. PER A REPORT FROM THE
PUBLIC IN WIKIEUP WINDS WERE GUSTING 25-35 MPH AND A FEW SPRINKLES
WERE REPORTED. LIGHTNING DETECTION ALSO SHOWED SOME LIGHTNING IN
THIS AREA. THUS THE GRIDS WERE TWEAKED TO PUT IN A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. THE HRRR MODEL PUSHED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY UP AS FAR AS
KINGMAN BUT DOES NOT BRING ANY CONVECTION THAT FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ADJUST WINDS AND POPS FOR THIS EVENING IN THAT
AREA, OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 320 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP MODESTLY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST GRADUALLY MOVES INLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ESMERALDA COUNTY...WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 MPH. AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NEVADA...THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY. THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER LINCOLN
COUNTY...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES FROM MID
MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT IN THE LEE
OF THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT HI RES MODELS ARE INDICATING NOT MUCH MORE THAN 40 MPH
GUSTS AT THIS POINT.

THE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY...DOWN 4 TO 8 DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLEST
OF THE DAYS.

THE LAST ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE...A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT...YIELDING DRIER AIR...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO
TREND SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE ECMWF...HOWEVER NOTABLE DIFFERENCES WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE. IT IS
NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING MOISTURE
BACK INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH WESTERLY FLOW LOOKING
TO DOMINATE THE OVERALL PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DECIDED TO LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION THIS
EVENING...KEEPING THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY AS A RESULT.

AS FOR THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN...THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH DEPICT A SECONDARY OPEN WAVE DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH THE
GFS DEPICTING A MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE WAVE. IMPACTS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH THIS POTENTIAL FEATURE AT THIS TIME...WITH
GUSTY WINDS LOOKING TO BE THE MAIN RESULTANT WEATHER MONDAY-TUESDAY.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK...GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
MIGRATING BACK TO THE WEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WILL DEPEND ON
IF THERE ARE ANY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY
KEEP ANY ASSOCIATED RIDGING WITH THE HIGH FAIRLY FLAT AND MITIGATE
THE WARMING OF AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT
TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA. FEW-SCT
CLOUDS ABOVE 15 KFT MSL CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS NYE
AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE DRY FUELS...LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPRING AND SHEEP RANGE AND
ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY ON FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
MAY DIP BRIEFLY BELOW 15 PERCENT. VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK COUNTY
AND THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU OF ARIZONA...BUT RH VALUES WILL ONLY
BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...CZYZYK
LONG TERM...PULLIN
AVIATION...ADAIR

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