Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 262150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
250 PM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will persist through the week while
temperatures decrease to near normal by Thursday. A storm system
passing to the north of the area will keep gusty winds around
through this evening with lighter winds expected the rest of the

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday.

Strong winds in many areas this afternoon will persist through this
evening as a shortwave trough passes by to the north. Winds will
decrease overnight. Advisory level winds were being observed across
western San Bernardino County and the Wind Advisory remains in
effect until 9 pm. A westerly flow will follow behind the shortwave
later tonight through Wednesday with cooler temperatures and lighter
winds. The excessive heat warning is set to expire at 9 pm this
evening and will likely not be needed for the rest of the week.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday.

An upper level impulse will make its way across the Great Basin and
southern Rockies on Thursday around a larger trough centered over
Saskatchewan. Little effect is expected for the local area as
shortwave ridge builds in right behind across the Pacific Northwest
and more dominant high pressure remains to our south and west.
Thursday and Friday are expected to remain dry with near normal
temps. Long term models begin to diverge Friday night through Sunday
with the development of the next shortwave progged to move across
the southwest over the weekend. Latest ECMWF solution indicates a
stronger shortwave, keeping temps near normal for the weekend with
more significant cloud cover and the latest GFS, being the weaker
solution, brings temps back up above average Friday through Sunday.
Current forecast trends more towards the ECMWF in regards to temps
but both are not showing any introduction of available moisture so
forecast remains dry throughout the long term.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty south to southwest winds will
continue through the evening and most of the overnight. Expected the
strongest winds to be between 22z through 02Z, where gusts over
30KTS are likely. While winds will subside some overnight, still
expected gusts over 20KTS for an extended period of time. Winds
should finally die down Tuesday morning, but expect southwest gusts
again tuesday afternoon, though they should not be as strong as

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty winds will continue through the evening, with
gusts of up to 40-45 knots possible in southern NV into San
Bernardino County. Winds slowly decrease overnight into Tuesday
morning. Downslope winds will also be possible on the eastern slopes
of the southern Sierra where gusts of 40-45 knots possible across
the higher elevations. Otherwise, a dry airmass will leave rain
chances and cloud cover near nil.

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty southwest winds and low humidity will lead to
critical fire weather conditions across southeast Nevada, northwest
Arizona and San Bernardino County in California through this evening
and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 pm. Local gusts
around 40 mph are possible along the eastern Sierra slope through
early this evening. Dry conditions will persist through the week but
winds will be below critical thresholds after this evening. &&

.HYDROLOGY...Observed flows on unregulated creeks, specifically
Independence Creek, Big Pine Creek and Rock Creek indicated flows
have decreased slightly since their peak flows occurred earlier this
week. Creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra slopes of
Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will be flowing high and
fast through into at least early next week. Minor flooding could
occur near creeks as well as a few low water crossings on some
roadways. Remember, never drive through flooded roadways or around
barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland adjacent to creeks,
streams or rivers could experience areas of standing water.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating


Short Term/Fire Weather...Harrison
Long Term...Guillet

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