Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 232206
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. BREEZY AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE COAST. WIND GUSTS UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND IN PORTIONS
OF ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES COULD APPROACH 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATELY STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. I
AM NOT READY TO GO WITH ANY WIND ADVISORIES YET AS THESE LARGE UPPER
LOWS HAVE A TENDENCY TO TRACK MORE SLOWLY EAST THAN MODELS PREDICT
SEVERAL DAYS OUT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY KEEPING
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHICH ALSO STARTING TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE UP INTO MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. I ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST FARTHER WEST THAN INHERITED...INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND DEVELOPING A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS ROUGHLY
LINCOLN...EASTERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AND CONTINUING IT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. I INCREASED POPS IN THOSE AREAS.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN LINCOLN
COUNTY...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE FAIRLY STRONG GIVEN THE SHEAR
AND MOISTURE PROFILES. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA WILL BE PRETTY DRY AND STABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT SO I DECREASED POPS A LITTLE THERE BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER
LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
A LITTLE EACH OF THOSE DAYS COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CYCLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHIFTING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN BACK TO EAST/SOUTHEAST MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION EXCEPT NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND WHERE SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE.
&&

$$

HARRISON

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