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FXXX12 KWNP 281231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Multiple low level C-class flaring
was observed from both Regions 2305 (S09W16, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2309
(N14W85, Dao/beta).  The largest flare of the period was a C2 at 28/0526
UTC from Region 2305.  Region 2309 continued to exhibit growth as it
approached the NW limb.  Convergence was observed in the smaller
intermediate spots of Region 2305.  The rest of the spotted regions were
either stable or in decay.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were observed.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an
M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the forecast period (28-30 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels once again with a maximum flux of 4,690 pfu at 27/1450
UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to remain at moderate to high levels for days one through three (28-30
Mar) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
is expected to be at or near background conditions (Below S1-Minor) for
the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels until just after
28/0000 UTC when a slight increase in density, solar wind speed, and
total field was observed along with a brief change in phi to a positive
(away) sector.  Solar winds increased from approximately 370 km/s to 420
km/s with a total field increase from 6 nT to 10 nT.  The Bz component
deflected southward to a maximum of -8 nT.  This was possibly the
beginning of a co-rotational interaction region in advance of the
anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.

A negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), is expected
to influence the solar wind environment beginning late on day one and
persisting through the forecast period (28-30 Mar).  Solar wind speeds
reaching 700 km/s are possible.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through late on day one (28 Mar) when a southern extension of a negative
polarity polar coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective.  Active
to minor storming (G1-Minor) is expected by late on day one and
continuing through day two (29 Mar).  Quiet to active levels are
expected on day three (30 Mar). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.