Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 190031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 2169 (N05E53, Cao/beta)
produced an M1/Sn flare at approximately 18/0841 UTC, though it occurred
during a period when GOES X-ray data was unavailable due to an
orbital related eclipse. The event was measured and estimated by using
NASA SDO data. The event was very impulsive and does not appear to have
produced a CME. Region 2169 was the only active region to produce any
events. All other regions were either stable or in decay, and all were
unremarkable. No CMEs on the Sun-Earth line were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-Minor)for the next three days (19-21 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (19-21 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (19-21 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained nominal. Solar wind speeds averaged
near 360 km/s. Total field varied slightly between 3nT and 9nT. The Bz
component hovered between -7 nT and 8 nT during the period. Phi angle
was predominately in a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for the
next three days (19-21 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled levels
occurring during the 18/0000-0300 UTC and 18/1800-2100 UTC periods.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet (Below
G1-Minor) for the next three days (19-21 Sep).


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