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FXXX12 KWNP 241231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2209 (S15W63,
Fko/beta-gamma-delta), 2216 (S14E20, Dkc/beta-gamma), and 2217
(S19E60,Cko/beta) continued to produce low-level C-class flaring. The
largest event of the period was a long duration C4 flare at 24/1104 UTC
from Region 2217. In addition to the C4 flare, Region 2217 also produced
a C3 flare at 23/1053 UTC and two C2 flares at 23/1846 UTC and 23/1941
UTC, respectively.

Region 2209 displayed slight decay in its intermediate spots, and only
produced a single C2/Sf flare during the period. Region 2216 had slight
separation between its leader and intermediate spots, had slight growth
in overall areal coverage, but exhibited magnetic simplification, losing
its delta configuration. Spot development was observed in the
intermediate and trailer areas of Region 2217 as it rotated further onto
the visible disk. New Region 2218 (N14E57, Cso/beta) rotated on to the
visible disk and was numbered during the period. An eruptive filament
located just South of Region 2209 was first observed in SDO/AIA 304
imagery at approximately 24/0709 UTC. Lack of LASCO coronagraph imagery
is preventing analysis at this time, but a comprehensive analysis will
be conducted as imagery fills in.

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or
greater) during the period (24-26 Nov). Regions 2209 and 2216 continue
to be the most likely sources for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (24-26 Nov). There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days
due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative of waning
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speed
varied between 360 km/s and 480 km/s to begin the period, but eventually
settle down to consistently average near 380 km/s. Total field was
fairly steady between 6 nT to 7 nT, while the Bz component was mostly
negative, ranging between +4 nT and -7 nT. Phi angle remained mostly
positive (away) throughout the period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue towards nominal levels
through day one (24 Nov), returning to near ambient conditions by day
two and into day three (25-26 Nov).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (24 Nov).  A return to mostly quiet conditions
is expected for days two and three (25-26 Nov). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.