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FXXX12 KWNP 281231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels as Region 2268 (S10E02,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced a M1/2n flare at 28/0441 UTC, followed shortly
after by a C9 flare at 28/0530 UTC. Neither of these flares had any
associated radio signatures normally indicative of coronal mass
ejections (CMEs). LASCO coronagraph imagery seemed to support this
analysis as no CMEs were observed in the latest imagery. This region
exhibited signs of growth in its intermediate spot area. New Regions
2276 (S07E32, Bxo/beta) and 2277 (N07E74, Hax/alpha) were both numbered
during the period. Region 2277 produced a C2 flare at 28/1043 UTC, while
Region 2276 remained fairly inactive.

Region 2271 (N18W23, Dai/beta-gamma) showed signs of separation between
the leader and trailer spots, with slight growth observed in its
intermediate spot area. Region 2275 ((S17W33, Dai/beta-gamma) also
exhibited slight separation between its leader and trailer spots, as
well as slight growth in its trailer spot area. The other regions on the
visible disk remained relatively stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for
R3-Strong activity over the next three days (28-30 Jan) as Region 2268
continues to be the dominant spot group on the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels through the forecast period (28-30
Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) through the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE spacecraft, continued to
reflect slightly disturbed conditions. IMF Bt ranged from 1-10 nT, Bz
varied from +6 nT to -9 nT, and the Phi angle remained mostly negative
(towards) with occasional oscillations to the positive (away) sector.
Solar wind speeds averaged near 365 km/s through around 28/0300 UTC
before increasing to a peak near 560 km/s. Wind speeds then settled down
to around 440 km/s at the end of the period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be disturbed over the
next three days (28-30 Jan). Additional speed enhancements are possible
on days two and three with solar wind speeds potentially reaching the
450 to 550 km/s range.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to continue on day one (28 Jan).
Conditions are then expected to increase to quiet to active levels on
days two and three (29-30 Jan), with a chance for G1-Minor storms on day
three due to continued influence from the southern crown polar coronal
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