Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Regions 2391 (N06W23, Axx/alpha) and 2393
(N18W06, Hax/alpha) both continued to exhibited signs of decay, with
Region 2391 producing the only reportable flare during the period, a
low-level B-class flare. Region 2395 (N11E63, Hsx/alpha) remained
stable, while Regions 2394 (N12E14, Cao/beta) and newly numbered Region
2396 (S16E56, Hax/alpha) showed signs of slight growth during the
period.

A large filament structure was observed lifting off the southeast
quadrant between 03/1125 - 1324 UTC. Initial analysis suggested the vast
majority of the ejecta had a trajectory well south of the Sun/Earth
plane, but analysis is ongoing to verify no Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were associated with this filament.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (04-06 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux high levels during the period with
an observed peak flux of 1156 pfu at 03/1825 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels through the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels for the forecast period (04-06 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
speeds began the period near 520 km/s, increased slightly to near 550
km/s, before gradually decreasing back down to end-of-period speeds near
460 km/s. Total field ranged between 4 nT to 6 nT while the Bz
component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a
predominately negative (towards) sector throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A slow decline towards background levels is expected during the next
two days (04 Aug-05 Aug) as CH HSS effects subside. By day three (06
Aug), an increase in solar wind speeds, as well as an enhancement in the
total IMF field strength, is expected with the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels to begin the
period, before decreasing to mostly quiet conditions as CH HSS influence
decreased even further.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on
days one and two (04-05 Aug) as CH HSS activity subsides. An increase to
unsettled to active levels is likely by day three (06 Aug), with the
arrival of the anticipated CIR/CH HSS.


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