Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 291231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Apr 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2535 (N07E07, Cao/beta) produced the only
C-class flare of the period, a C1/Sf at 28/1251 UTC. Region 2536
(N16E14, Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth in its intermediate spots.
Region 2538 (S04E14, Bxo/beta) developed into a simple beta type group.
All other regions on the solar disk were mostly stable.

A filament near the NE limb was observed erupting in AIA/193 imagery
around 28/1200 UTC. Ejecta, believed to be associated with the eruption,
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery and had no discernible
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares all three days (29 Apr - 01 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate
levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on day one (29 Apr) and decrease to normal levels on
days two and three (30 Apr-01 May) due to electron redistribution from
expected CIR and CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected
nominal solar wind conditions. Total magnetic field strength was below 5
nT. The Bz component was mostly northward over the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speeds were in decline, beginning the period around 430 km/s and
slowly decreasing to around 370 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are likely to become enhanced late on day one (29
Apr) as an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS is
expected to become geoeffective. Enhancements in the solar wind are
likely to persist through day two (30 Apr) and into day three (01 May).
An additional enhancement is possible on day three as the periphery of a
28 Apr CME passes by Earth.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels before the onset
of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS, likely causing unsettled
to active conditions late on day one (29 Apr). On day two (30 Apr), the
geomagnetic disturbance is likely to reach minor storm (G1-Minor) levels
as the CH HSS effects continue. Unsettled to active conditions are
expected on day three (01 May) as CH HSS effects persist as well as
possible influences from the periphery of a 28 Apr CME.



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