Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 200031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a
long duration C9/Sf flare at 18/1845 UTC, from Region 2242. The event
did not appear to have an associated CME. Continued growth was observed
in Regions 2241 (S09W06, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 2242 (S18W29,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta), both maintaining East-West oriented inversion
lines. New Region 2243 was numbered today, but remained inactive. All
other active regions were unremarkable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (20-22 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
remain large and magnetically complex. A chance also exists for an
isolated X-class event (R3-Strong) during the forecast period.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (20-22 Dec). There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the
potential for a proton producing solar event from Regions 2241 or 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speeds
averaged near 420 km/s.  Total field was relatively steady near 8 nT
with the Bz component fluctuating between +/-7 nT.  Phi angle was mostly
positive (away).

.Forecast...
Disturbed solar wind conditions are anticipated at the beginning of day
one (20 Dec) due to a glancing blow CME from 17 Dec, already expected to
have begun to pass Earth late on 19 Dec. This event will be followed by
the arrival of the 18 Dec CME Solar wind speeds reaching 650-750 km/s
are estimated with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME, expected early on 21
Dec. Disturbed solar wind conditions are anticipated throughout the
period as a result of these events.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin day one (20 Dec) with active
conditions and the chance for an isolated minor geomagnetic storm (NOAA
Scale- G1) when the 17 Dec CME is expected to provide a glancing blow
impact to Earths magnetic field. By early to midday on day two (21 Dec)
the second CME, from 18 Dec, is expected to cause active to major storm
(G2-Moderate) conditions as it impacts the geomagnetic field. Waning
conditions are expected on day three (22 Dec), with an isolated residual
G1 storm possible.


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