Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 201231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C1/Sf at
19/2331 UTC from newly numbered Region 2148 (N06E48, Dro/beta), which
emerged rapidly during the period.  Region 2147 produced a B9/1F flare
at 20/0010 UTC but remained stable.  Regions 2146 (N08E42, Hsx/alpha)
and 2143 (S04W05, Dri/beta) both developed slightly during the period
while the remaining regions were stable or decaying.  Another C1 flare
was observed at 20/0914 UTC from a region beyond the northeast limb.  No
Earth-directed eruptions were noted.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) activity, for the next three days (20-22 Aug).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached moderate levels again while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for days one through three (20-22
Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Yesterdays CME continued to pass Earth.  Bt peaked near 22 nT at
20/0427 UTC.  Bz varied between -11 nT and 21 nT following the CMEs
passage, reaching a maximum southward deflection of -16 nT at 19/1936
UTC.  It turned positive after 19/2131 UTC and has remained strongly
positive since.  Phi was predominately positive through 19/2130 UTC
before rotating to a negative (towards) orientation where it remains.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect CME characteristics
for the majority of day 1 (20 Aug), with a return to mostly nominal
conditions expected by days end which should persist through the end of
the period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm (G2,
moderate) levels. Quiet levels prevailed until the 18-21 UTC synoptic
period, when conditions reached active levels.  The agitated field
reached major storm (G2, moderate) levels at 19/2301 UTC.  An abrupt
drop to quiet conditions followed, as Bz became strongly northward, and
prevailed for the remainder of the period.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of activity are expected to persist
through the forecast period.  There is a diminishing chance for minor to
major (G1, minor - G2, moderate) activity on day 1 (20 August).


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