Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 010031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels today as Region 2130 (S07E42,
Dkc/beta-gamma) produced an M2 flare at 31/1114 UTC.  Both Regions 2130
and 2127 (S09E22, Dkc/beta-gamma) were the origins of multiple C-class
flares observed as well.  Separation in the leader spots was observed in
Region 2130 with slight decay in its southern most area.  Region 2127
was relatively stable.  Slight to moderate growth occurred in newly
numbered Region 2132 (S18E60, Cro/beta) which emerged today on the SE
limb.

The filament eruption mentioned in the 31/1230 UTC Forecast Discussion
that occurred at approximately 30/1700 UTC was determined to not have an
Earth-directed component.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares for the forecast period (01-03 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (01-03 Aug).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions were at nominal levels with wind speeds ranging
from 348 km/s to 291 km/s.  Total field showed a slight increase to 5 nT
just after mid-day while the Bz component was between +2 nT and -4 nT.
Phi angle switched from mostly negative (towards) to a postive (away)
sector at approximately 31/1130 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels through
mid to late on day two (01-02 Aug).  Mid to late on 02 Aug, disturbed
conditions are expected with the passage of the glancing blow
from the 30 Jul CME.  Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to
extend into day three (03 Aug).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
through at least mid-day on day two (01-02 Aug).  By mid to late on day
two, a possible glancing blow from the 30 Jul CME is expected to impact
the geomagnetic field causing quiet to active conditions were will
likely persist into day three (03 Aug).



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