Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 191231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2625 (S00W13, Hax/alpha)
once again lost its trailer spot as it underwent slight decay during the
period, while Region 2626 (N08W04, Hax/alpha) remained stable. Both spot
groups were void of any significant flare activity. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight
chance for C-class activity, all three days (19-21 Jan).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal
to moderate levels on day one (19 Jan) due to electron redistribution as
a result of CIR effects. Moderate to high levels are expected late on
day two and into day three (20-21 Jan) following high solar wind speeds
associated with the positive polarity CH. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
the influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began
the period near 525 km/s, reached a peak of 645 km/s at 19/0318 UTC, and
ended the period near 580 km/s. Total field strength began the period
near 15 nT, but gradually recovered to near 8 nT around 18/1400 UTC,
before ending the period near 5 nT. The Bz component was variable
throughout the period, seeing a maximum southward deflection near -10
nT, but mainly varying between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle remained in a
positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and
two (19-20 Jan) due to continued influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS. Conditions are expected to begin a waning trend by day three (21
Jan) as CH HSS influence begins to subside.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS
effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with
isolated periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely on day one
(19 Jan), due to continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. A
gradual return to quiet to active conditions is expected on days two and
three (20-21 Jan) as CH HSS influence tapers off.


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