Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 072121
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 07 2110 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2496 (N08E34, Bxi/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, a C2/Sf at 07/1202 UTC. The
region exhibited a gradual decaying trend over the past 24 hours. Region
2494 (S12W29, Dki/beta-delta) developed a weak delta magnetic
classification near its trailer spot, though no significant flaring
activity has been observed from the region during the period. Region
2497 (N13E49, Dai/beta) underwent a growth trend, adding area to the
entire spot group. Region 2495 (S08W74, Dai/beta) also displayed growth
in its leader and trailer spot but remained magnetically simple.

Two coronal mass ejections were observed in coronagraph imagery. The
first was observed in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 07/0348 UTC.
Analysis of the event suggests no Earth-Sun line component was present.
A subsequent coronal disruption was observed near Region 2496 around
07/1200 UTC, with an associated CME signature first observed in LASCO C2
imagery at 07/1224 UTC. Although it appears to be directed too far west
to be geoeffective, additional imagery is needed to analyze and model
the event.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) over the next three days
(08-10 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal
background to moderate levels on days one through three (08-10 Feb). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were
indicative of slow rotation of the magnetic field. Bt was between 4-6 nT
through most of the day. The Bz component was oriented northward until
after 07/0800, after which is slowly rotating into a predominantly
southward orientation. Solar wind speeds were relatively slow, ranging
from around 430-380 km/s. Phi began the period in the positive sector
and rotated to the negative sector around 07/0500 UTC before rotating
back into the positive sector after 07/1600 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind enhancements are anticipated on day one (08 Feb) from the
influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. An additional enhancement is
likely on day two (09 Feb) as a glancing blow from a 05 Feb CME is
anticipated to become geoeffective. Effects from the CME are expected to
subside through day three (10 Feb).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected for day one (08 Feb) under
the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (09 Feb) is likely
to see active conditions persist as a glancing blow from a 05 Feb CME
moves past Earth. Day three (10 Feb) is expected to see a return of
quiet to unsettled conditions as effects from the passing CME subside.


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