Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
FXXX12 KWNP 041231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 04 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when old Region 2422 (S20, L=097)
produced an M1 flare from around the west limb at 04/0241 UTC. Region
2427 (N19W44, Dac/beta-gamma) is the lone region remaining on the disk.
It showed slight growth in its intermediate spots but remained
relatively quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares all three days (04-06 Oct) and a slight chance for an M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare on day one (04 Oct) as both Region 2420
and 2422 complete their transit across the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels during the
period while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (04-05 Oct). Moderate to high levels
are possible by day three (06 Oct) after passage of the 30 Sep CME and
subsequent enhanced solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain below the S1-Minor threshold.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced throughout the period.
Solar wind velocity increased from around 370 km/s to near 475 km/s.
Total field strength (Bt) ranged between 6-10 nT while the Bz component
varied between +/- 8 nT and remained largely negative after 04/0000 UTC.
The phi angle remained in a predominantly positive (away from the Sun)
sector with some brief periods of negative (toward the Sun) orientation
between 03/1650-1910 UTC.

There was no clear indication of the arrival of the 30 Sep CME,
therefore further enhancements in solar wind speeds are possible on day
one (04 Oct). Enhancements are expected to continue through day two (05
Oct) with a slow return to nominal levels throughout day three (06 Oct).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels due to
substorming and prolonged negative Bz.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely to continue on day one
(04 Oct), due to the possible arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Conditions are
likely to continue at unsettled to active levels throughout day two (05
Oct) due to residual CME effects. By day three (06 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels are expected as CME effects wane. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.