Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXXX12 KWNP 011231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 2290 (N21W76, Bxo/beta)
produced a number of C-class flares this period, the largest of which
was a C3/Sf flare at 01/0513 UTC.  Region  2293 (N07E09, Dac/beta-gamma)
was stable this period and Regions 2290 and 2294 (S14W36, Cao/beta) were
in decay.

An eruptive prominence (EPL) centered near N01W90 was observed in
SDO/AIA 304 imagery between 01/0605-0655 UTC with an associated coronal
mass ejection (CME) visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
beginning at 01/0700 UTC.  Initial analysis suggests that this CME is
not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low over the next three days (01-03 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal
levels for the next three days (01-03 Mar) due to coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) effects.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels over the next three days (01-03
Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft were indicative of the
arrival of the anticipated co-rotating interaction region (CIR)
preceding the onset of the negative polarity southern polar CH HSS.
Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 350 km/s
to end-of-period values near 550 km/s.  IMF total field values varied
between 2-14 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -11 nT.
The phi angle was generally steady in a negative (toward) solar sector
orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on days
one and two (01-02 Mar) as the negative polarity southern polar CH HSS
moves into geoeffective position. Recurrence data suggests solar
wind velocities in excess of 700 km/s and Bt values in excess of 20 nT
could be observed during this event. CH HSS influence is expected to
begin to subside on day three (03 Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions (observed between 01/0145-0900 UTC) due to the onset of a CIR
preceding the main CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active
levels with periods of G1 (Minor) conditions on days one and two (01-02
Mar) with quiet to active levels expected on day three (03 Mar) as CH
HSS effects wane.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.