Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M1
flare at 24/1743 UTC from Region 2567, which rotated out of view early
this period.  There are no active regions with sunspots on the visible
disk at the time of this writing and no Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts)
flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3 or greater Radio Blackout)
flare on day one (25 Jul) as Region 2567 transits the west limb.  There
is a chance for C-class flares with a slight chance for M-class flares
on day two (26 Jul) and only a slight chance for C-class flares on day
three (27 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (25-27 Jul) and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a weak transient arrival, possibly
associated with flare activity late on 20 July to early on 21 July.
Solar wind speed was around 380 km/s until 24/1450 UTC, when the arrival
of a weak transient increased solar wind speeds to near 470 km/s.  Total
field increased from 5 nT to 13 nT before decreasing to near 6 nT.  The
Bz component deflected southward for 3 hours with to a maximum of -9 nT.
Phi angle was mostly negative (towards) with brief variations into a
positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced early on day
one (25 Jul) due to the continued influence of a weak transient.  By
mid-to-late on day two (26 Jul), a positive polarity CH HSS is expected
to become geoeffective and solar wind parameters are expected to remain
enhanced through day three (27 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet to unsettled levels but
the passage of a weak transient caused active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storms.  G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed during
the 24/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period followed by multiple active
periods.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels
throughout the forecast period (25-27 Jul) due to continued weak CME
effects persisting through early on 25 Jul followed by the arrival of a
positive polarity CH HSS by mid-to-late on 26 July.


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