Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS28 KWNS 272030
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 051200Z

RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSING
ONSHORE THE PAC NW COAST...AND WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT E ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS / SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH NEAR/ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WITH THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SFC FEATURES WILL GENERALLY BE QUICK TO TRANSIT THE
CONUS...WITH OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ERN TWO-THIRDS.

SUCH A LARGE-SCALE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A STRENGTHENING SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON D3/SAT AND
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF D4/SUN...PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP DIURNAL MIXING EACH DAY WILL SUPPORT LOW RH
VALUES AROUND 10-20 PERCENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS...LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS. RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SUSTAINED WINDS PRECLUDES A 40-PERCENT DELINEATION AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER.

...SRN CA...
ONE MORE DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN CA ON D3/SAT. AHEAD OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH...STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN THE
INCREASE OF SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING MOISTENING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...DRY AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AT MID- AND LOW-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS
INLAND MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING MINIMUM RH VALUES AOB
10 PERCENT AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. NONETHELESS...WHILE RH
VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS
PRECLUDES PROBABILISTIC DELINEATION.

..PICCA.. 11/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.