Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 041935
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 061200Z - 121200Z

THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY 3/THU. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL SHIFT E/NE OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
DRY/ WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO DAY 4/FRI. ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN AREAS THAT REMAIN
RAIN-FREE...RH VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...THIS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING FIRES OR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS. BEYOND DAY 4/FRI...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND /DAYS 5-6/ AND A DRYING TREND
WILL ENSUE FROM CA EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE WESTWARD AND HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THIS
WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST AS MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PAC NW/GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES...IN ADDITION TO PERHAPS TO BREEZY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME WHERE EXACTLY THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR A WIND/RH THREAT WILL
DEVELOP BY DAY 7/8 ON MORE THAN A GENERAL BASIS AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

..LEITMAN.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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