Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 192029

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

On Day-3/Friday, enhanced low- to mid-level winds peripheral to a
shortwave impulse crossing the southern Canadian Prairies will
spread across an antecedent dry boundary layer across parts of the
northern Rockies vicinity and adjacent High Plains. With
downslope-flow-enhanced warming/drying encouraging RH reductions,
some critical fire-weather risk may affect parts of MT and vicinity,
as well as the Snake River Valley of southern ID. While 40-percent
areas are in effect for these locations, differences among model
solutions regarding the strength of the flow, and overall marginal
magnitude of any critical-wind risk per multiple model solutions,
preclude Critical designation.

For Day-5/Sunday into Day-6/Monday, some dry-thunderstorm potential
may affect portions of the northern and central Great Basin and
vicinity. An influx of mid-level, monsoon-related moisture into
these areas between Pacific Coast troughing and expansive southern
states ridging may occur. This moisture may support adequate
buoyancy for high-based thunderstorm potential, in association with
ascent peripheral to impulses reinforcing the troughing pattern
aloft. With antecedent dry conditions in the low levels, some
dry-thunderstorm potential will exist. As such, 10-percent
dry-thunderstorm areas have been added. There is uncertainty
regarding the evolution of mid-level perturbations influencing the
thunderstorm risk, and adjustments to the delineated areas may
become necessary.

..Cohen/Marsh.. 07/19/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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