Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 242153
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Valid 261200Z - 041200Z

A mean trough will persist across portions of the West throughout
the forecast period, and will be reinforced by occasional shortwaves
migrating through the region.  Farther east, mid/upper ridging will
eventually be replaced by a trough centered over the mid-Atlantic
late in the period, with a shortwave ridge persisting across the
Plains.

At the surface, fire weather conditions will be enhanced by lee
troughing/cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado southward to the Big
Bend area of Texas through D5/Wed.  Beyond that point, a deepening
low will migrate eastward, leaving behind ridging and a temporary
lull in fire weather through D7/Fri.  Late in the period, models
hint at a return in fire weather potential to the High Plains,
although pinpointing specific locations of this potential is
difficult at this time frame.

...Southern and Central High Plains - D3/Mon through D6/Thu...
...D3/Mon through D6/Thu - Southern and Central High Plains...
Dry, breezy to windy conditions will develop each day behind a
surface trough across western Oklahoma and the western third of
Texas, with a surface low persisting over eastern Colorado and
vicinity.  Areas of critical and near-critical RH will also persist,
along with areas of dry fuels.  Broad 40% areas remain in place for
this outlook throughout the period to highlight areas that contain
potential for at least elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions during this period.  70% areas also remain in place where
wind/RH criteria are expected to be met, fuels remain the driest,
and ongoing drought is expected to persist - primarily in eastern NM
and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains on D3/Mon and D4/Tue and
extending into southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas on
D3/Mon.

A 70%/critical area was introduced on D5/Wed for much of the same
area (eastern New Mexico and western Texas) although it extends
farther south into portions of west Texas (and the Transpecos).
Fuels have not been receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis
recently, although substantial drying should take place over the
next few days given the overall synoptic pattern.  This should
result in an increased overall fire weather threat given very strong
surface winds expected (exceeding 30-35 mph at times) and
near-critical RH values.

..Cook.. 02/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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