Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 202027
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 281200Z

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE WEST DURING THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM FROM DAY 3/MON THROUGH DAY
8/SAT.

AS AN EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NE EARLY IN THE
WEEK... COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EAST.  THE
GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE BEFORE DETACHING FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW AND
REMAINING OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN
TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE WEST BY TUE/WED...DAYS 4/5.  AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NERN
CA/NWRN NV AND SERN OREGON.  SWLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND HUMIDITY
FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS THE FLOW
STRENGTHENS BY LATE IN THE DAY.  STRONGER SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
AND HUMIDITY FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT ARE MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA ALTHOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT AREA REMAINS.

STRONG SWLY WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY... HOWEVER
WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...WILL NOT OUTLOOK AN AREA FOR THURSDAY/DAY 6.  WITH THE
TROUGH ADVANCING WELL INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WILL NOT
OUTLOOK ANY AREAS FOR DAYS 7 AND 8 DUE TO WIND/HUMIDITY AND FUEL
DRYNESS UNCERTAINTY.

ALSO...BY MID TO LATE WEEK...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...
INCREASED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER NRN CA AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST.

..BOTHWELL.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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