Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 311638
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

VALID 311700Z - 011200Z

A MINOR SWWD EXPANSION TO THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS
BEEN MADE IN CNTRL NV BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING
ELEVATED AREAS. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

..GLEASON.. 08/31/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND PERSISTENT AREA OF
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE NWRN CONUS WILL SUPPORT
MODESTLY ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT
BASIN AND VICINITY. AT THE SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PARTS OF CNTRL MT...SUPPORTING A LOCALLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM PORTIONS OF ERN MT INTO NERN WY.

...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES
AND VICINITY...
DIURNALLY DEEPENED VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD MANIFEST THE MODESTLY
ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AT THE SFC AS SSWLY TO SWLY WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS -- AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN
NV...NWRN UT...NERN CA...SERN ORE...SRN ID...AND SWRN MT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 10-20 PERCENT
AND DRY FUELS IN MANY AREAS TO RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON
A SPOTTY BASIS.

ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NV...NWRN UT...CNTRL/SRN
ID...AND SWRN MT...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ON
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF BROADER MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. DIURNALLY
ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN PW AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH AMIDST DEEP/WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS...AND GIVEN MODERATE STORM MOTIONS...A
DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY DRY-THUNDERSTORM RISK ISOLATED.

...PORTIONS OF ERN MT AND NERN WY...
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT SLY TO SSELY
SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND
15-25 PERCENT GIVEN THE INCONSEQUENTIAL DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN...AND PRESENCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING. WITH
DRY FUELS IN PLACE...ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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