Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 240804
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CIRCULATIONS IS
CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY MON
MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION AND SERN U.S.
SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER NERN OK SHOULD REDEVELOP NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF
THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER WRN U.S. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION ALSO MOVES
NEWD WITH TIME. A SEPARATE SFC LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER NERN NM AND
THE WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. A COMPOSITE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE FEATURE ATTENDANT TO THE SFC LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX. DRY POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S.

...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE W...AND AS WLY SFC WINDS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC CONTINUE. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WINDS ROUNDING THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE N OF LOWERED RH AREAS.
HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...A MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE SFC WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FOR
PORTIONS OF ERN NY...MA...NRN CT/RI...SRN VT/NH...AND FAR SRN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15
MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED RH IN
THE PRESENCE OF DRY FINE FUELS SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AN ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR A
PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND.

...PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND W TX...
A MARGINAL COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH LOWERED RH VALUES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM AND W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO EXCEED
15 MPH ON JUST A BRIEF/ISOLATED BASIS AND GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE
FUELS...NO ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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