Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 281517
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 281700Z - 291200Z

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL SIERRA...
THE ISOLATED DRY-THUNDER AREA IS EXPANDED WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
SIERRA NEVADA...WHERE SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS TO FOSTER A FEW STORMS LATER
TODAY. SIMILAR TO POINTS EAST WITHIN THE OUTLINED AREA...STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE MODEST AT BEST. HOWEVER...A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST ATOP VERY DRY
FUELS...SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS.

ELSEWHERE...THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY AND VICINITY
REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE LATER TODAY.

..PICCA.. 07/28/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS
TODAY...WITH WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. AN
EMBEDDED BELT OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A
WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ID/NORTHEAST UT INTO SOUTHWEST
WY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN DRYING AND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...RH VALUES WILL
FALL INTO THE 12-15 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY...SHOULD
WIND SPEEDS TREND HIGHER...AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BE NEEDED
LATER TODAY.

ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST OVER A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHEAST NV INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL UT WHERE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGES OF
HIGHER PW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW BUT PW
VALUES LESS THAN 0.65 INCHES AND DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS. THEREFORE...ANY LIGHTNING
OVER VERY DRY FUEL BEDS WILL POSE AN IGNITION HAZARD.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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