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000
FXUS62 KCAE 221152
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
752 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will gradually work into the area through the day.
High pressure over the MS River Valley will build eastward
through the day and settle in across the area through tonight
and Tuesday. A front coming through Wednesday could provide a
slight chance of light showers. Fair and cooler Thursday.
Weak surface high pressure will generally remain over, or near,
our vicinity Friday into next weekend, providing some gradual
moderation in temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Morning cloud cover behind exiting shortwave will
continue through at least late morning. Later today as drier
high pressure begins building into the area, skies will begin
to become more scattered, allowing for some actual sunshine by
late afternoon. Temperatures will climb through the 50s and will
eventually top out in the mid to upper 60s once the clouds clear
out.

Tonight: Center of the surface high moves towards the area,
allowing for more ideal radiational cooling conditions. Skies
become mostly clear, winds light to calm, and dry airmass will
be in place. This will create an unseasonably cool night across
the Midlands and CSRA, with overnight lows possibly falling into
the upper 30s north to the lower 40s central and south. Do not
expect much in the way of frost due to the warmer soil
temperatures, along with overnight lows only briefly being in
the upper 30s in a few locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure of modified Canadian air in our vicinity Tuesday
will promote fair weather, with some temp recovery, but temps still
expected to be below normal. Temp recovery back to near normal
expected Wednesday in a SW low level flow developing ahead of a
cold front that is progged to come through around late day or
evening. Limited moisture with this front as the Gulf of Mexico
does not get a good tap. However, guidance is trending slightly
wetter with the system. Latest NBM POPs remain low, but decided
to introduce a slight chance POP due to the trend in most
guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cool Canadian high pressure will build from the Midwest into the Mid
Atlantic behind the front. The coolest air is expected to remain to
our NE, but enough cool air advection into our region to promote
below normal temps Thursday. Surface high pressure axis to remain
generally over, or near, our vicinity Friday into next weekend, with
some height rises aloft, promoting some gradual moderation in temps.
Latest GFS suite continues a little wetter, indicating some possible
isentropic lift late Friday into the weekend. Latest EC
ensemble mean now trying to indicate some moisture and light
precip. However, latest NBM POPs remain low. This could be an
item of uncertainty and subject to some change going forward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR expected through the period.

Widespread vfr stratus deck around 7 kft behind an exiting
system will continue across the area through late morning. By
this afternoon as drier high pressure begins to build across the
region, clouds will begin to scatter and thin out, remaining
around 7 kft. By this evening, enough dry air will be in place
to produce clear skies for the overnight hours. Airmass remains
dry enough overnight to inhibit any widespread fog, but still
can not completely rule out brief river fog near ags/ogb late
tonight.

Winds will be north to northeast around 5 knots this morning,
increasing during mid morning to near 8 knots with a few higher
gusts. As high pressure settles over the region tonight, winds
will turn light and variable to calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$