Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
876 FXUS64 KFWD 071844 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 144 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of North and Central Texas through this evening. Localized flooding may occur from slow moving storms. - Rain chances will persist Tuesday and Wednesday. However, a few storms could be strong with gusty winds in addition to the localized flooding concern. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Thursday into the weekend with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Another active afternoon is taking shape across the region with showers and storms impacting many locations across North and Central Texas. For this afternoon, the highest coverage will remain in Central Texas, but scattered storms are possible anywhere in our region. A weak mid-level disturbance is interacting with our very moist airmass and surface features that remain in our vicinity. This will continue to support at least scattered showers and storms through early this evening. The main hazard will be localized flash flooding from slow moving moderate showers or storms. Most of the activity will diminish again in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating, with quiet conditions expected overnight. Unfortunately, the rain is not over for us with another round of showers and storms possible as early as Tuesday morning. A decaying storm complex is expected to move southward from Oklahoma into North Texas. Most of the CAMs show scattered convection developing over North Texas in the morning, shifting towards portions of Central TX in the afternoon. Again, gusty winds and localized flooding will be the main concerns if storms can maintain any strength. Another decaying complex of storms may approach the Red River counties Tuesday night, but at this time the chances are around 20% for our area. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday through Next Weekend/ The northwest pattern aloft will continue to send shortwaves southward and with any leftover surface boundary in the region, we will see more scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. The highest coverage is expected to be across East Texas and southern Central TX with PoPs between 30-50%. This should be the last round of widespread precipitation with only low rain chances on Thursday across the Brazos Valley region. We will finally have dry but warmer conditions on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Some of the extended guidance continue to show more storm systems moving south over the weekend which could bring at least some low rain chances over the area. The good news is that at least this will keep the heat indices from reaching 105 region wide. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and again tomorrow morning. VFR conditions will prevail as scattered showers and storms continue to develop across the region. As of 1PM, most of the activity is generally staying outside of the D10 region, but additional convection this afternoon may clip closer to any of the North Texas sites. Added a brief window of VCTS between 21-00Z to account this potential, but there is a chance storms could stay outside of the VCTS range for some of the sites. Any storm will bring the potential for lower visibility and brief gusty winds. The probability of thunder at Waco is lower given that most of the activity will remain east or west of the site (as depicted by the majority of the CAMs). Still, we can`t rule out a thunderclap or two before everything diminishes around 01-02Z. Another round of scattered showers and storms are possible tomorrow morning for the North Texas sites. We introduced VCTS from 11-19Z in the extended period. Otherwise, southerly winds continue around 5-11 kt. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 91 75 93 76 / 10 30 10 20 5 Waco 73 90 73 90 74 / 10 20 10 30 5 Paris 73 89 72 93 73 / 10 40 20 30 10 Denton 74 92 73 93 74 / 10 40 20 20 5 McKinney 75 91 75 93 74 / 10 40 20 30 5 Dallas 76 92 76 95 76 / 10 30 10 30 5 Terrell 73 91 73 93 73 / 10 30 10 30 10 Corsicana 75 91 75 93 75 / 10 30 10 40 5 Temple 73 90 72 91 73 / 20 20 10 30 5 Mineral Wells 73 92 73 93 72 / 10 20 20 20 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ141>143-156>158. && $$