296
FXUS64 KFWD 141947
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1231 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
/Through Wednesday afternoon/

Quiet and seasonably conditions will persist the rest of the day
as a high pressure remains in control. The combination of plenty
of sunshine and light winds will result in highs in the mid to
upper 80s over most locations. Winds will slowly shift to the
south-southeast this evening as the high pressure moves east.
With the return of the warm southerly flow overnight, low
temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 60s.

Another dry but warm day is expected on Wednesday before we shift
to a more active weather period. Zonal flow aloft and southerly
winds near the surface should keep the sunny or mostly sunny
skies with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The next
upper level disturbance and surface dryline will setup across
West Texas late afternoon into the evening, but any convection
that develops in the afternoon hours should stay far to our west.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

The much needed break in the rain will only last briefly with
increasing thunderstorm chances returning Wednesday night through
Friday across much of North and Central Texas. Several weak
shortwave disturbances will stream out ahead of the parent
mid-/upper-level trough located over the Desert Southwest helping
to intiate scattered convection along a dryline out in West Texas
late Wednesday afternoon. This activity may approach our Big
Country counties late Wednesday evening, but it is more likely
that we see convection develop over our forecast area later
Wednesday night as a strengthening low-level jet transports
greater quality moisture over locations primarily along/west of
I-35.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the
day Thursday as warm/moist advection further strengthens across
North and Central Texas and the aforementioned upper trough
approaches from the west. With no glaring surface boundaries in
our vicnity, the placement of convection will largely be driven by
mesoscale features. This is leading to some discrepancies in
where the greatest rainfall will fall, but the general trend in
QPF is for rainfall to start along/west of I-35 during the day
Thursday shifting east-southeast toward our Central TX/East
TX/Brazos Valley counties Thursday evening and Thursday night.
Access to more high-resolution guidance over the next 24-36 hours
will help us determine more accurate timing and location details.

Excessive rainfall leading to new and reagrravated flooding issues
will be the primary concern with this event. Most recent NAM and
GFS guidance highlight 1.8-2.0" PWATs south of I-20 Thursday into
Thursday night (potentially exceeding climatological maxima).
Corfidi vectors are forecasted to remain generally parallel to
mean storm motions, suggesting the potential for
training/backbuilding thunderstorms. As of now, a widespread
0.5-1.5" of rainfall seems likely with a 30-40% chance that
locations across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley see totals
exceed 2" through Friday and a 10-20% chance that totals exceed
4". The Weather Prediction Center has included much of the already
water-logged area south of I-20 and east of I-35 in a Moderate
Risk for excessive rainfall where these isolated greater amounts
will likely occur. At least a low end threat for severe weather
will exist Thursday as well with impressive boundary layer
moisture and sufficient instability and shear in place. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be possible in a few storms,
primarily along/west of I-35 and south of I-20 where thunderstorms
will have access to 1500-2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Elevated storms across
portions of East and Southeast Texas may still pose a hail threat.

The bulk of the rainfall should come to an end from west to east
by early Friday. It is important to note another shortwave
rounding about the southwestern periphery of the parent trough may
bring another shot of heavy rainfall to our southern counties
Friday evening/night, however a majority of current guidance keeps
this activity generally south and east of our forecast area in the
deeper moisture (something to monitor).

Rain-free conditions will return by Saturday and may extend into
the middle portions of next week as ensembles continue to
highlight a building ridge over the Southern Plains toward the end
of the weekend. On the other hand, this would tick temperatures up
into the upper 80s to mid-90s for much of North and Central Texas
by Sunday. With abundant moisture remaining over the region, it is
possible we see heat indices rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1231 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

No aviation concerns expected through the period with VFR
conditions and few daytime CU and/or passing cirrus. North-
northwesterly winds will become south-southeast this evening with
speeds staying around 5-11 kt through Wednesday. Looking ahead,
storm chances will return to the region late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  90  68  80  67 /   0   0  10  60  60
Waco                63  88  66  78  67 /   0   0  10  80  60
Paris               59  86  66  83  64 /   0   5   5  30  70
Denton              62  89  67  80  65 /   0   0  20  60  70
McKinney            61  88  67  80  65 /   0   0  10  50  70
Dallas              66  89  69  81  67 /   0   0  10  60  60
Terrell             62  87  66  80  65 /   0   0   5  50  70
Corsicana           64  88  67  81  67 /   0   0  10  70  70
Temple              62  88  65  79  67 /   0   0  10  80  50
Mineral Wells       62  90  65  78  64 /   0   0  20  80  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$