485
FXUS63 KOAX 092047
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
347 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
  Sunday through Wednesday. Current indications for the greatest
  precipitation chances of 40-60%, are expected Sunday into
  Monday. A strong storm or two is possible Sunday afternoon and
  again on Wednesday afternoon.

- Daytime temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.Remainder of this afternoon and tonight:

Forcing for ascent and resultant cooling aloft/steepening lapse
rates associated with a minor vorticity lobe pivoting south
through the area have contributed to a weakly unstable
environment this afternoon. And, latest CAM data suggest the
potential for isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two
this late afternoon into early evening.

Both clouds and gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening
with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Friday and Saturday:

Generally quiet weather is anticipated the next couple of days
as the region will reside between a shortwave trough diving
southeast through the Great Lakes and a lower-latitude trough
advancing through the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. It will
be breezy Friday with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph.
Furthermore, a few models suggest the potential for isolated
showers Friday afternoon in conjunction with the above-
mentioned shortwave trough passing to our east. However,
confidence in that precipitation potential is currently too low
to include in the forecast. In regard to temperatures, highs are
expected to be in the 70s both days.

.Sunday into Monday night:

The 12z global models are in generally good agreement in
suggesting that the Great Basin/Desert Southwest trough
mentioned above will slowly track across the central and
southern Plains during this time period. At the same time, there
is some signal that a polar-branch trough could temporarily
phase with the primary midlevel system and combine with a
surface front moving into the mid MO Valley to yield a good
chance (i.e., 40-60% PoPs) of showers and thunderstorms,
especially along and south of I-80.

The models suggest the potential for modest instability to
develop Sunday afternoon amidst a weakly sheared kinematic
environment. So while organized severe weather isn`t
anticipated, a strong storm or two is possible.

The forecast will call for high temperatures in the 70s with
overnight lows in the 50s.

.Tuesday and Wednesday:

A shortwave trough is forecast to advance from the northern
Rockies into the northern and central Plains with an associated
surface cold front moving through the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Both the EPS and GEFS indicate the best
instability developing across southeast NE and southwest IA
Wednesday afternoon, and a few strong storms appear possible.
Otherwise, the forecast will indicate increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing
into Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. The exception is in the vicinity of any showers that
develop this afternoon when ceilings could briefly lower to
Fl020-030. Based on current radar observations, -SHRA will
become increasingly possible at KOFK within the next hour. At
KOMA and KLNK, confidence in precipitation occurrence at the
terminal locations is too low to include in the forecast.
Otherwise, north-northwest winds will increase to 12-13 kt with
gusts of 18-20 kt. The winds will diminish by 00z-01z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead