294
FXUS63 KOAX 312322
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
622 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will linger into tonight. If storms repeat
  over areas that received heavy rainfall last night, some
  localized flooding could occur.

- Additional storms could move in by late Saturday
  afternoon/evening (20-40% chance) with daily chances
  continuing into at least Wednesday. The highest chances for
  strong to severe storms look to be Sunday and Tuesday.

- Slightly warmer through next week with highs in the upper 70s
  and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The stalled frontal boundary remains from south central NE
through northwest MO. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have
gone up along this boundary. While the storms do not have large
hail or gusty winds, they have however produced several funnel
clouds, that is coincident with 0-3km CAPE and low level
vorticity in the vicinity of the boundary, thus the non
supercell tornado is actually peaking with values of 1-2 units.
These have typically been weak, short lived, may extend a few
hundred feet below the cloud base, and could briefly touch down.
And unfortunately, this trend could continue for another hour
or two late this afternoon. Elsewhere, there have been spotty,
light showers. Will maintain the highest Pops tonight in the
axis of the stalled frontal boundary in the 50-80% range, with
precipitation gradually diminishing after midnight before ending
by daybreak Saturday.

Saturday during the day should be very nice with dry weather and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

There is another weak short wave that could bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday night, with Pops in the
20-30% range. Severe weather probabilities remain to our west
Saturday night.

Sunday will have 50-60% Pops during the day as weak zonal flow
remains aloft. The ECMWF still has pretty robust with precip
develop during the day Sunday, but the GFS is pretty dry. And
then the GFS GFS has a pretty strong frontal boundary moving
into the region Sunday night, which brings the next real threat
for severe storms and locally heavy rains moving from west to
east.

And the next best chance for precipitation after that comes
Tuesday. Previous models were perhaps a little slower, and now
12z models are perhaps a little faster, so there remains some
uncertainty on the timing of the that weather system and the
expected strength.

And then Wednesday through Friday is looking pretty dry and
pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A line of slow-moving showers and storms is weakening but
continuing east across eastern Nebraska this evening and will
move int KLNK and KOMA over the next few hours. Expect MVFR/IFR
conditions under heavier showers as the line moves through. Once
the rain passes, we`ll see VFR conditions return with light and
variable winds. Cigs will be lowering overnight tonight with
high probability (60-70% chance) of MVFR cigs developing at
terminals overnight. KOFK sees higher chances of IFR cigs
developing (50-60%) and even a 40-50% chance of LIFR cigs and
reduced vis possible between 09-12Z. KOMA and KLNK will more
likely be predominantly MVFR overnight with a possibility for
cigs to lower to IFR around 10-14Z. Around 14-15Z at all the
terminals we should see cigs start to break up with clearing
skies through the late morning into the afternoon and VFR
conditions returning. Winds will stay light but become
predominantly out of the northwest on Saturday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...McCoy