Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230928
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
328 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of weather on the way, likely focused on the
first half of next week.

Main moisture plume has shifted west over AZ as the upper high
pressure area has settled over NM. This high will remain parked
over the state through the weekend. It may then shift briefly to
the northeast Monday before re-organizing over the Great Basin
later next week. A back door cold front, probably aided by the
convection, will try and drop into northeast NM tonight and
probably have better success Sunday night. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be forecast for the first half of next
week as moisture rich air from Mexico and TX moves into the Land
of Enchantment.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday was notably less active and we should see a similar
scenario today, although 500 mb heights are a little lower and
the atmosphere a bit more unstable, which may result in a slight
increase over Friday for the west and north. East central and
southeast zones will remain rain free. Highs will again by toasty
with near record or record breaking highs for portions of the
central zones and much of the east.

The back door front that the models were showing then not showing
are now showing again to make it into northeast NM tonight. The
front will hang around Sunday then probably make another push
south and west Sunday night. A weak east canyon wind is not even
out of the question for later Sunday night into the Rio Grande
Valley. A slight increase in showers and storms are still forecast
for Sunday, with the biggest increase over the northeast quarter
of the forecast area.

The upper high may actually wobble to the northeast Sunday night
and Monday which will open the door for deeper moisture to our
southeast and south to get drawn into the state. Combined with the
increase in low level moisture behind the back door front, an
active period of weather is expected for the first half of next
week. In addition, a weak upper level disturbance, possibly
created from convection, may slide across northern NM Tuesday and
drop southeast on Wednesday. All this means scattered to numerous
showers and storms will impact the west and north with isolated
activity for our southeast zones Monday through Wednesday. This
will be the period when flash flooding will be a concern.

As the upper high transitions to the Great Basin next week we will
become prone to disturbances dropping southeast toward NM. This
looks to be the case later next week along with a surface cold
front. This will keep much of the forecast area active, with the
possible exception of the northwest, which may be more influenced
by the upper high. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The center of mid-level anticyclonic circulation is forecast to
drift over the SW NM/SE AZ border today. The close proximity of the
high aloft will keep temperatures sizzling with readings 4 to 12
degrees above normal this afternoon, and some new records possible
across central and eastern areas. This position of the high will
also cause the monsoon moisture plume to skirt most of NM (steering
the better moisture over AZ, SE UT and CO) with scattered to
isolated storms mainly in our northern and western mountains. Most
of these cells should drift toward the east or southeast at speeds
around 5 to 10 mph. There should be some localized areas of humidity
just below 15% at lower elevations today.

The anticyclone aloft will shift over AZ on Sunday, allowing a moist
back door cold front into our northeast and east central plains, and
tilting the elevated monsoon moisture plume more squarely over NM.
This will induce an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage,
especially along the central mountain chain and northeastward across
east central and northeast areas.

The anticyclonic circulation aloft is then forecast to quickly
reform around the OK/KS border for Monday and Tuesday, and a moist
low-level return flow will begin to pump into NM from the southeast,
causing wetting thunderstorm probabilities to trend further upward
with each day. PWATs are progged to peak Tuesday afternoon around 1
to 1.20 inches, but they will already be almost as high by late
Monday. The potential for flooding of burn scars will be
heightened Monday and Tuesday as we approach the most
climatologically favored time of the year for flash flooding in
northern and central New Mexico.

Haines indices mainly around 5 today will trend downward with
improving low level moisture over eastern areas Sunday, then
areawide Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will also trend downward
with the improving moisture Sunday through Tuesday.  Highs should
bottom out a little below normal in the west Tuesday, and up to 6
degrees above normal in the east.

The mid-level anticyclone is forecast to build and broaden over the
Great Basin during the middle to latter half of the work week. This
will cause minimum humidities over the northwest third of the
forecast area to trend downward around 10% from Tuesday`s high
readings. Elsewhere, enough low level moisture will continue to
steer into the area from the south and southeast for humidities to
be more persistent.  There may even be a fresh influx of low level
moisture across the east Wednesday night or Thursday as an upper
level trough exiting the central Rockies Wednesday sends a back door
cold front into the area.  The net effect should be a continued
plume of monsoon moisture over the forecast area through the end of
the work week, though wetting footprints may decrease some across
our northwest. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated -shra/tsra lingering over north central and northwest NM
w/ gusty outflow winds to 35 kt and brief rain. KSAF and KFMN to
be impacted as late as 08Z. Mid level clouds near 120 and a few
sprinkles will clear thru sunrise. Saturday will feature a larger
crop of -shra/tsra aft 20Z near the high terrain, spreading to
valley locales and the northeast plains thru 00Z. Direct hits
will result in brief MVFR vsbys from lcl heavy rain w/ gusty winds
near 35 kt. Greatest coverage expected as outflows collide over
northern and central NM during the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  64  98  66 /  10  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  93  57  93  58 /  30  20  30  20
Cuba............................  93  58  92  58 /  40  30  40  40
Gallup..........................  93  58  93  60 /  20  20  20  10
El Morro........................  89  54  88  56 /  40  40  50  30
Grants..........................  92  57  91  58 /  30  30  40  30
Quemado.........................  89  59  89  59 /  40  30  40  50
Glenwood........................  97  65  96  65 /  40  40  40  50
Chama...........................  87  51  86  51 /  50  40  50  50
Los Alamos......................  88  64  89  63 /  40  40  40  40
Pecos...........................  92  62  90  59 /  40  40  50  50
Cerro/Questa....................  86  56  85  53 /  50  50  50  50
Red River.......................  78  47  76  49 /  50  50  50  60
Angel Fire......................  81  43  80  43 /  50  50  50  60
Taos............................  91  54  90  55 /  20  30  40  40
Mora............................  87  59  86  57 /  50  50  50  50
Espanola........................  96  63  94  62 /  20  30  20  30
Santa Fe........................  91  65  91  63 /  30  30  50  50
Santa Fe Airport................  96  62  95  63 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  69  96  68 /  20  30  20  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  71  97  71 /  20  20  20  40
Albuquerque Valley.............. 101  66 100  66 /  10  20  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  70  98  70 /  20  20  20  40
Los Lunas....................... 101  67  99  67 /  10  20  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  99  70  98  70 /  20  20  20  40
Socorro......................... 101  68 100  69 /  10  20  20  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  63  91  64 /  30  40  40  50
Tijeras.........................  94  66  92  65 /  20  40  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  58  94  60 /  20  30  30  40
Clines Corners..................  92  62  89  60 /  20  30  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  92  63  91  62 /  20  20  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  96  66  94  66 /  10  20  30  50
Ruidoso.........................  87  59  86  60 /  20  30  30  40
Capulin.........................  92  58  89  58 /  40  50  40  50
Raton...........................  95  58  91  58 /  30  40  40  40
Springer........................  95  60  92  59 /  20  30  30  50
Las Vegas.......................  92  58  89  57 /  30  40  40  50
Clayton......................... 100  66  95  65 /  20  30  30  40
Roy.............................  95  64  93  62 /  20  30  30  50
Conchas......................... 101  71 100  68 /  10  20  20  50
Santa Rosa...................... 100  70  99  67 /  10  20  20  50
Tucumcari....................... 105  72 102  70 /   5  10  20  30
Clovis..........................  99  68  98  68 /   0   5  10  20
Portales........................ 100  71  99  70 /   5   5  10  20
Fort Sumner..................... 100  70  99  69 /   5  10  10  20
Roswell......................... 103  70 102  70 /   0  10  10  20
Picacho.........................  98  64  96  65 /   5  10  10  20
Elk.............................  93  61  91  62 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

40


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