Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 271806 RRA
Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1106 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017
18Z TAF CYCLE
Primary aviation wx concern today will be increasing west and
southwest SFC winds for eastern and far western NM. Gusts between
35-40kt expected after 18Z at GUP, LVS, and TCC...25-30kt at other
TAF sites. Today`s winds will precede a fetch of deep Pacific
moisture and approaching upper level trough that will bring lowering
CIGS and VSBYS areawide starting tonight in the west and then central
areas Tuesday. Significant weather impacts to aviation Tuesday all
areas. High winds central and east, strong winds elsewhere,
widespread rain and mountain snow west and central areas, blowing
dust eastern plains. Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions and frequent mt
top obscurations. CHJ
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017...
High impact and rapidly changing weather can be expected across
the area through Tuesday to include several hours of critical fire
weather conditions for much of eastern New Mexico this afternoon.
Potentially damaging winds are possible for parts of central and
eastern New Mexico on Tuesday. Meanwhile, accumulating snow will
return to the high terrain areas of the north and west beginning
tonight where 6 to 12 inches are a good bet for areas near and above
7500 feet by Tuesday night. A warmer, drier trend will take hold the
latter half of the week into the weekend as temperatures trend back
to above normal.
Decided to increase PoPs along and west of the central mtn chain
tonight into Tues as latest models show pronounced moisture
advection ahead of the approaching Pacific trough followed by colder
temperatures aloft and significant/favorable orographic forcing.
Also decided to upgrade the previous Winter Storm Watch to a Warning
for the Far NW highlands and San Juan/Tusas given forecast snow
amounts that have trended slightly upward for tonight into Tuesday.
Snow amounts will generally range between 6 and 12 inches with
locally higher amounts. Meanwhile, decided to issue winter weather
advisories for the remaining NW highlands, the Jemez...West Central
and SW Mtns through Tues owing to expected snow impacts to travel in
those areas. A later shift will likely need to expand highlights
farther east to capture the Sangre de Cristos. Meanwhile, winds will
continue to be a major factor today and definitely on Tues as the
upper level jet core moves through central NM. Gusty winds will favor
central and eastern high terrain areas today but strong to damaging
winds will favor the SE quarter Tues where a high wind watch is
currently in place until Tues evening.
Anticipate the coldest overnight temperatures Tues and Wed night
after passage of the upper level trough as colder, drier air filters
in from the NW. So far, models show a drying and warming trend
happening the latter half of the week into the weekend as drier
mid/upper zonal flow takes over. Temperatures will start rebounding
Thurs before reaching above normal area wide Fri/Sat/Sun. Occasional
aftn breezes will pick up over the weekend ahead of another upper
level trough passing over the CO Rockies. 32
Several hours of critical fire weather conditions for much of
eastern New Mexico this afternoon followed by potentially damaging
winds possible for parts of central and eastern New Mexico on Tuesday
with the focus for critical fire weather conditions shifting into
far southeast areas. Accumulating snow to return to the high terrain
areas of the north and west.
West and southwest winds increasing to the lee of the Sangre de
Cristos as well as the Clines Corners to Santa Rosa to Tucumcari
corridor this morning will strengthen further and expand eastward in
response to deepening low pressure over far northeast New Mexico
into southeast Colorado. Minimum RH values will generally range from
12 to 18 percent, which are marginal, but max temperatures will
trend much warmer and average close to 10 degrees above normal for
the first time in several days. Additionally, Haines indices have
also trended a bit higher as compared to yesterday with moderate
values now expected. Will issue a Red Flag Warning for much of the
east this afternoon. No significant wind shifts are foreseen across
eastern areas tonight but west and southwest winds will remain
locally strong and gusty tonight especially in the mountains and to
the lee of the central mountain chain.
High confidence in much stronger and potentially damaging winds for
Tuesday but cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, lower Haines
values and higher min RH values will preclude widespread critical
fire weather conditions for EC and NE New Mexico. Regardless,
widespread high sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph and gusts topping 60
mph can be expected. Will closely monitor areas from Ft Sumner to
Melrose to Clovis and point south for possible Fire Weather Watch on
Meanwhile, rain and higher elevation snow will be widespread across
the west and north tonight through Tuesday. This as a decent slug
of Pacific moisture races east-northeast ahead of a cold upper level
storm system that will exit Tuesday night.
Much drier and colder air will overspread the area behind this
system on strong northwest flow Wednesday. Maximum temperatures will
be as much as 15 degrees below normal across the northwest and 5 to
10 degrees below normal for the east and south. Dry and warmer
weather will then take hold for the second half of the week with
much less windiness.
Ventilation rates will not be a concern in the near term but they
will trend downward with fair to poor vent conditions Thursday and
Friday for much of north-central, northwest and west-central locales
especially valleys. KJ
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ521-523>526-533>540.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ502-504-506-508-511.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM MST Tuesday for
the following zones... NMZ503-510.