Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KABQ 281159 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
MID OR HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PLAINS. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A BACK DOOR FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SUNDAY...BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY IS LOOKING TO BE ABOUT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT
WEEK...PERHAPS BREAKING A FEW RECORD HIGHS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. OTHER THAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WX PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE
THE CASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH
TODAY LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AND POSSIBLY
BREAKING A FEW RECORDS HIGHS. BUT A MODEST POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SUN ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
MON TO MON NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES OF N
AND CENTRAL NM. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST HALF TO
PERHAPS TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE SUN TO SUN NIGHT WILL EASE TEMPS
BACK SOME AND MAYBE PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO...WITH THE
HELP OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OR TWO... GENERATE THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST RAIN CHANCES.

WINDS PICK UP MARKEDLY AS MIDWEEK ARRIVES WITH WED PERHAPS
FEATURING THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THU MAY
NOT BE TOO FAR BEHIND. ANOTHER RATHER MODEST BACK DOOR PUSH INTO
THE EAST LATE WEEK MAY BLUNT HIGH TEMPS THERE...BUT NOT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ELSEWHERE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST TODAY...LEADING TO A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WITH
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED LATE MARCH
AVERAGES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN A DEEPLY MIXED
ATMOSPHERE...AND SOME MODERATE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DECLINE BELOW 15 PERCENT MINIMUM RH. ONLY
POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY IS THEN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

INTO SUNDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INTO SUNDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO
THE RIO GRANDE...PUSHING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WEST WHILE BRINGING
IN A BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND.

BY MONDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL HAVE FLATTENED...OPENING THE DOOR TO
A PACIFIC TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE MAINLAND OF OLD MEXICO. MEANWHILE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS
WILL BE POOLING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY SET THE STAGE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF NM...BUT STILL AN
OVERALL LOW WETTING RAINFALL PROBABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN
ZONES...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS WILL DRY BACK OUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESUMES AND STRENGTHENS WITH WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY
LOOKING TO BE THE STRONGEST WIND DAY. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID WEEK. A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
WOULD BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY JUST A COUPLE HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS START TO TAPER BACK DOWN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.