Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 062329 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR KROW
BETWEEN 11-14Z...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN MUCH LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAN LAST NIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM FORECAST NOT AS DRY AS EXPECTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CA WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD NM SATURDAY
AND CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE NORTH OF NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROP
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE EAST SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DRY AND MILD. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND COULD
TURN COOLER AND UNSETTLED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A GREAT AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO THE MARCH SUN AND CLIMBED MUCH
HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS. TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THERE MAY BE
A FEW PATCHES AROUND ROSWELL BUT HIGH CLOUDS MAY HELP PREVENT
THEM FROM FORMING. IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT BUT NOT AS COLD AS
RECENT NIGHTS.

THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CA WILL INCH EAST SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GILA REGION AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN FROM THEM BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE
MORE LIKELY. DESPITE SOME CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND UPWARD.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH. MODELS
PAINTING AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
THE WESTERN...NORTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO CHAVES
COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HALT
THE WARMING TREND IN THE NORTHEAST BUT ELSEWHERE WILL BE A LITTLE
MILDER...CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEAK TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER NM MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES MONDAY WITH DRYING TREND
ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST. IT WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA WILL MOVE
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE UNDERNEATH THE LOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO
CLOUD BUILDUPS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. IT
APPEARS THAT ZONE 105/109 HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
SO LAL 2 IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA. CELLS WOULD CONTAIN
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN SO NOT A REAL WETTING RAIN EVENT. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL TREND UP MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WEAKENS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE INTRUSION SHOULD BE
FELT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE
EAST.

A NORTHERLY WAVE WILL ABSORB INTO THE SOUTHERLY WAVE AND CREATE
SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE MTNS. THUS INCREASING THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWER CHANCES. ONCE AGAIN...THIS EVENT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A
WETTING PRECIPITATION KIND. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WILL DRIVE
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY ABUT UP AND
GO THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS VARY ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE
STRONGER NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR POPULATING THE GRIDDED FORECAST.
EITHER WAY...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT.

RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IS STILL BEING DEPICTED OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH POP UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN LIGHT. DUE TO THE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS...VENTILATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE DECENT ALTHOUGH
TRANSPORT WINDS ARE LIGHT SO IF THE MODELS DEPICT MORE STABILITY
AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY THEN THE VENT RATES WILL LOWER.
HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE STATUS ACROSS THE EAST.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL. AS A RESULT OF THE
STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AND TRANSPORT WINDS BECOME WEAKER. THUS...VENTILATION RATES
LOWER.

THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A MODEL DISCREPANCY OF HOW THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS TREND. IT APPEARS THAT THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS SO EXPECTING SOME SORT OF PACIFIC TROUGH INFLUENCE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. VENTILATION SHOULD INCREASE ALTHOUGH MORE DUE TO
HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS THAN TRANSPORT WINDS. SHOWER CHANCES RETURN
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT UNSURE AS TO HOW MUCH SINCE THE TROUGH IS
PRETTY WEAK. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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