Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 022337
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. BETTER
MOISTURE RESTS EVEN FARTHER EAST OF THIS INITIAL AREA...EXTENDING
TOWARD OK/TX BORDERS. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED THESE LOWLAND AREAS IN
LOW GRADE POPS AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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