Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 231928
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
327 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...FROM
QUEBEC TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. FROM SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...BRINGING WARM AND DRY SUMMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 PM EDT...RADARS ONLY A COUPLE OF SMALL AREAS OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR AREA. ONE OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
AND CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY...AND THE OTHER OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF ULSTER COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS THINNING
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER.

RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS IT LOOKS LIKE BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WILL LEAD TO PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY AREAS ARE
HIGHER THAN THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 73F OFF THE 12Z ALBANY
BALLOON SOUNDING. DECIDED TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST
AS A SHOWER OR TWO MAY POP UP AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TODAY UPPER 60S IN THE TERRAIN TO MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS.

FOR LATE TONIGHT...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO GRIDS BASED ON
TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND FORECASTS.

LATEST UPDATE CONTAINS PRELIMINARY GRIDS THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY AND
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GENERALLY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST...LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON NIGHT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WED...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AM. HOWEVER...AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS LATE WED OR WED NT. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD REACH/APPROACH
90...SHOULD THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SHOWERS
HOLD OFF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MON
NT/TUE AM...THEN MAINLY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND
55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR TUE NT/WED AM.

THU-FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED NT OR THU. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
COULD BE SLOWED ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW/W ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH COULD HELP
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS...AND RESULT IN
A SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE CHC POPS FOR LATE
WED NT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSUMING THE FRONT DOES
INDEED PASS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS INTO FRI...IN CASE THE FRONT MOVES SLOWER. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY
70S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS COULD BE COOLER IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FASTER AND/OR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OCCUR. ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 70S...WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 60S. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD
FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR WED NT/THU AM...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR THU NT/FRI
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

THEN...AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE FORECAST "CROSSOVER" TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 50S...ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT DAMP GROUND FROM ALL THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY/S RAINFALL...NO WIND AND INITIALLY FEW IF ANY
SENSIBLE CLOUDS...FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT ALL THE TAF SITES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

WE BELIEVE THE FOG WILL BE MAINLY IFR (2SM BR) AT KGFL AND
KPSF...BEGINNING AT 06Z AND 08Z RESPECTIVELY. AT THE TWO OTHER
SITES SINCE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED NOT TO GET AS LOW...WE WENT
WITH MVFR MIST (3SM BR)..AFTER 08Z. WE ALSO INCLUDE IFR CIGS AT KGFL
AND KGFL AS THE FOG COULD ACTUALLY GET RATHER DEEP.

IT LOOKS AS IF THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 1130Z-1200Z ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD VISIBILITY AND ONLY FEW-SCT CU AT THE
5-6KFT.

THE N-NE 5-10KT SURFACE WIND SHOULD BECOME CALM TONIGHT...THEN
5-10KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: AM PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS ON AREA STREAM AND RIVERS.

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT DRY AND INCREASING WARM WEATHER TO
AFFECT THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUILDS IN.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM








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