Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241102
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
702 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off to our east this morning bringing an
end to the showers and ushering in a drier, more comfortable
airmass. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon as another cold
front approaches. A cooler airmass will be ushered in with the
passage this front with below normal temperatures for the start
of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cold front is moving across forecast area this morning. Dew points
have fallen into the lower 60s across portions of central New
York. The cold front will move off to our east bringing an end
to the shower activity. A drier and more comfortable airmass
will be ushered in on breezy and gusty westerly winds. Will be
warm again today up the Hudson Valley into portions of the
Berkshire and across northwestern Connecticut with highs in the
lower to mid 80s. Otherwise, temperatures expected to top out
in the mid to upper 70s with some cooler reading across the
highest terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Short waves will rotate about a large upper level low over the
Hudson`s Bay region deepening the trough over the Great Lakes
region and shifting it eastward.

The region will be between short waves tonight. Expecting fair
weather and seasonable temperatures with diminishing winds this
evening.

A short wave and its associated a cold front will be in the
approach Sunday. Scattered showers are expected as instability
develops with the heating of the day along with the threat for a
few thunderstorms. Threat will wane in the evening with the
loss of heating. Temperatures are expected to seasonable Sunday
and Sunday night with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The next short wave will begin to sharpen the trough Monday into
Monday night. Again scattered convection is expected to develop
with help of instability from diurnal heating. However greater
coverage is expected as heights will begin to fall and this
will help to maintain threat for showers Monday night. The
chances for thunderstorms should be be tied to daytime heating.
With more cloud cover expected Monday temperatures will be
cooler with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Tuesday, models are in generally good agreement that the
sharpening longwave trough axis will swing across the forecast area.
This will be an anomalously deep trough with H500 heights around -2
SD per the GEFS. The thermal profiles are also anomalously cool,
with H500/H850 temps around -22C/+7C per the ECMWF. With the dynamic
forcing from the upper trough, as well as the midlevel cold pocket,
expect diurnally enhanced scattered convection to occur. The best
coverage would appear to be across the north. High temperatures
appear to come up well short of seasonal normals.

Northwesterly upper flow quickly builds in on the back side of the
trough, leading to subsidence and tranquil weather Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Temperatures still somewhat on the cooler side.

Thursday and Friday, quasi-zonal, fast midlevel flow sets up. At
lower levels, return southwesterly flow around the high will result
in a warm and moist advection pattern. A stalled low-level frontal
boundary may provide the focus for rounds of showers and
thunderstorms toward the end of the week within this warm and humid
environment, with lift possibly augmented by shortwave troughs
embedded within the midlevel flow. Low confidence with respect to
the timing and location of the lifting mechanisms, so a broad-brush
approach with chance PoPs was used until things become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Heavier rainfall associated with the remnants of TC Cindy now
look to remain south of the terminals. Another batch of rainfall
along the cold front is approaching KALB/KGFL. Included a TEMPO
MVFR through 13Z for this activity, though brief IFR vsby
cannot be ruled out as there are some heavier elements along the
leading edge. Drier air filters in rather quickly in the wake
of this activity with conditions solidly VFR at all terminals
by mid to late morning at the latest. FEW-SCT VFR cu and
perhaps some cirrus is all that`s expected in the skies for much
of the late morning into the afternoon hours. Skies will be
mainly clear tonight.

Light south to southwest winds will become westerly through
around 15Z. Speeds will increase and become gusty during the
late morning into the afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 kt are
possible during the afternoon hours before diminishing this
evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected this afternoon...

A cold front will move off to our east this morning bringing an
end to the showers and ushering in a drier, more comfortable
airmass. Westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph today
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Relative humidity values are
expected to drop to minimums of 35 to 45 percent this afternoon.

Winds will diminish this evening. Winds will be westerly again
Sunday but not as strong at around 10 mph with gusts into the
teens. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
are expected Sunday afternoon as another cold front approaches.
Minimum relative humidity values of 45 to 55 percent are expected
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated through over the next
several days. A cold front will move off to our east this
morning bringing an end to the showers and ushering in a drier,
more comfortable airmass. Isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon as
another cold front approaches. The weather will remain unsettled
early next week as another low pressure system approaches and
moves across the region with chances for convection Monday
afternoon into Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGFL airport observations are coming in and we will continue to
monitor this trend.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY


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