Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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903
FXUS61 KALY 240517
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After another cool night, high pressure will provide fair and
warm weather Wednesday. A warm front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and on Friday the approach and
passage of a cold front will bring the chance of additional
showers and thunderstorms. Fair weather is forecast to return
Saturday as high pressure builds in from eastern Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM EDT, skies remain mostly clear with just a few thin
patches of high clouds passing by for areas north of Interstate
90, particularly southern VT.

Winds have trended to near calm, and with mostly clear skies,
temperatures have dropped into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most
areas, except for lower/mid 50s across portions of the southern
Adirondacks and higher elevations across western New England.

We expect min temps to be warmer than last night, but still quite
pleasant after the long muggy stretch we have endured. Expect lows
around daybreak to be mainly in the 50s, with some mid/upper 40s
across portions of the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain
across southern VT and the Berkshires in western MA.

Dewpoints are higher than last night, so as temps cool, we expect
a bit more in the way of fog formation through daybreak. Areas in
deeper valleys and adjacent to bodies of water will be most
susceptible to fog, some of which could become locally dense
toward sunrise, with the greatest areal extent expected within
portions of the Hudson River Valley, Mohawk Valley, and also the
Housatonic and CT River Valleys in western New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny and warmer for Wednesday, as low/mid level warm
advection and south/southwest winds allow late day temperatures to
reach the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s
across higher terrain. For Wednesday night, increasing clouds and
a persistent south/southwest breeze should prevent temps from
cooling off as much as previous nights, with lows mainly in the
lower/mid 60s, with perhaps some 50s across western New England.
12Z NAM/GFS both bring a threat of showers to northwest areas
before daybreak on Thursday.

Thursday-Thursday night, warmer and more humid air will continue
streaming northeast into the region, well ahead of a weakening cold
front traversing the Great Lakes, with some showers developing in
association with the leading edge of the more humid air,
especially for areas north and west of Albany. Some thunderstorms
will be possible as well. Showalter indices go negative across the
area during the afternoon. Mixed layer capes from the GFS are
quite unstable - on the order of 1000 to 3000 J/KG during max
heating.

Thursday high temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s in
lower elevations, and upper 70s/lower 80s across higher terrain,
along with increasing humidity levels. A chance for at least
scattered showers/thunderstorms for Thursday night, with the axis
of greatest instability slowly shifting east/southeast across the
region. It will be quite warm and humid, with lows mainly in the
60s across the region, with some valley areas possibly barely
falling much below 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through the forecast area early in the extended
and then high pressure should yield a nice late August weekend.

There are still some timing differences with the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
GGEM and the Ensembles with the cold front on Friday.  The boundary
should be moving across upstate NY towards New England early in the
day. Some instability should still be present and a chance of
showers and slight chc of thunderstorm was kept in the forecast.
Cloudiness may inhibit robust instability for better chances of
thunderstorms. High will generally be in the 70s to 80F over the
hills and mtns...and lower to mid 80s in the valleys.

Fri night into Saturday...High pressure quickly builds in from the
Great Lake Region and southeast Canada.  Cooler and drier air works
back into the region with dewpts falling back into the 50s.  Lows
will be near normal in the 50s to lower 60s with some patchy fog.
Abundant sunshine from the subsidence from the anticyclone and
comfortable humidity levels will open the weekend with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s in the valleys...and upper 60s to mid 70s
over the higher terrain.

Saturday night into Sunday...A large closed anticyclone sets up over
the Mid Atlantic States.  Our forecast area will be on the northern
rim of the ridge with H850 temps rising potentially to +15C to +17C.
After lows near normal in the 50s to near 60F over mid Hudson
valley...max temps could reach 80-85F in the valley areas...and 70s
over the mtns.  Humidity levels should still be pretty good for late
August.

Sunday night into Tuesday...Attention shifts to the tropics on where
a potential tropical system goes near s-cntrl FL and the Gulf Coast.
Further north...a short-wave in the W/NW flow aloft may bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the fcst area
Monday into Monday night with high pressure building back in for
Tuesday. Temps look seasonable in the waning days of August.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will dominate through the TAF period ending 06Z/Thursday.

Just a few high clouds in the region and looking upstream to the
west, just some more scattered high clouds through the day. With
a mostly clear sky through the early morning hours, calm winds
and cool temperatures conditions will once again be favorable for
the development of MVFR-IFR fog at KGFL and KPSF. The fog will
burn off quickly by 11Z with VFR conditions through the day
with a few cumulus clouds and some high thin cirrus streaming in.

A light southerly flow at less than 10 Kt will develop through
the morning and continue through the afternoon. Winds diminish to
4 Kt or less this evening.

Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday and Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After another cool night, high pressure will provide fair and
warm weather on Wednesday. A warm front will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. A cold
front will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Friday. Fair weather is forecast for Saturday as high pressure
builds in from eastern Canada.

The RH values will increase to 90 to 100 percent tonight and drop
to 30 to 50 percent on Wednesday. Heavy dew formation is expected
tonight. On Wednesday night, RH will recover to 80 to 100
percent. Heavy dew formation is less likely Wednesday night as
some areas will maintain a south to southwest wind overnight.

Light/variable winds expected tonight. On Wednesday, winds will
become south to southwest at 5-10 mph and continue into Wednesday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro issues are expected in the Albany Hydro
Service Area /HSA/ the next 5 days ending Saturday.

Forecast rainfall across the HSA through the next 5 days is less
than an inch, although higher amounts may occur with
thunderstorms.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/SND/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND/KL
SHORT TERM...SND/KL
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND



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