Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 241415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL.  THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY...AS A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD.  THE AIR MASS
WILL BECOME MORE HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE GRAZING INTO OUR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE SKIES TO THE SOUTH ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH
JUST A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE LATEST 12Z NAM AND 3KM
HRRR SHOW A FEW RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COUNTRY AND INTO NORTHERN
VT. AS A RESULT...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING FROM
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

THE RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON THE W/SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE
WILL COMMENCE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. H850 TEMPS RISE TO +10C TO +12C. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN COUPLED WITH THE LOCAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS /L80S WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND
U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE STRENGTHENING WITH
HEIGHTS INCREASING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.
OVERALL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TIED TO A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ALSO...A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT
MAY GET INTO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU/WRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z. A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY/WRN-SRN DACKS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL
WITH LOWER TO M50S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ALY FCST AREA...AND
SOME SPOTTY U40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND
ERN CATSKILLS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY MOVE INTO THE S/SE PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL S/SW FLOW.

MEMORIAL DAY...MUCH OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND GETS INTO A MORE
HUMID AIR MASS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN HOW
MUCH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST...BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NAM IS MORE
ISOLD-SCT IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION NORTH AND WEST. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MOSTLY DRY FROM THE
I-90 CORRIDOR S/SE WITH THE CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE
FL AND LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS KEPT IN THE FCST FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN
CATSKILLS...NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS. THE SHOWALTER STABILITY
INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE 0C. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
USED IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES DO RISE BACK TO AN INCH OR SO.
THE HOLIDAY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WASHOUT...BUT AN UMBRELLA MAY NEED
TO BE HANDY FROM THE TRI CITIES NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH U70S TO L80S COMMON IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
MAINLY 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MON NIGHT...THE AIR MASS BECOMES MORE MOIST AND HUMID. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SE ONTARIO MOVING ALONG THE RIM OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN
CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...TO M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMERTIME AGAIN WITH A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. H850
TEMPS MAY REACH +15C TO +16C. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TIED TO THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
SBCAPES INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG ON THE GFS WITH PWATS OF 1-1.50
INCHES. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
ARE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO U80S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY
NIGHT SETTING UP WITH LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING
ABOUT IT. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION PUMPING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUGHT UP IN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE REGION AS IT
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE BOUNDARIES
WOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARIES AND
MORE SO WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO PREPARE THE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER WITH THE AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO WARM AND HUMID DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.50+
INCHES...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES SO ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
BOUNDARIES AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH...AS THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

AT THIS TIME....THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEDNESDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY APPROACHES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE LOCAL AREA...KGFL...EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE...HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT TODAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE MAINTAINING A HOLD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AS A PIECE ENERGY
RIDES OVER THE TOP.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MEMORIAL DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...
     A FEW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...

PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED"
RISK OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS
WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 15 MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH RIVER LEVELS
HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY LATE
MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. ANY RAINFALL IS MUCH NEEDED DUE TO THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS
CONSIDERED MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID WEEK IN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


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