Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 020814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
414 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES FROM THE MID WEEK AND BEYOND...AS AN UPPER LOW AND
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT...A COOL AND DAMP AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORT- WAVE COUPLED WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH N/NE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE PA-MD BORDER
WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS...RAP AND HRRR
...SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ERN OH MOVING INTO
W-CNTRL PA. A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
W-CNTRL NY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD INTO ERN
NY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE RAIN SHOULD ENCOMPASS ALL OF ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 12Z-15Z...AND THEN THE ACTIVITY COULD BE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY STABLE...THOUGH A POCKET OF STEEPER
MID LAPSE RATES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE...AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER THE SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES OF 0 TO
-2C ON THE LATEST NAM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. A
SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PLACED IN THE GRIDS IN THE EARLY
TO MID PM OVER THE WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...AND NEAR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. A RUMBLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND A
HALF AN INCH FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST QG LIFT OCCURS FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY AND THERMAL ADVECTIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL STILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY WHERE SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
M40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SHORT-WAVE PASSES DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PIEDMONT AREA OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AIDS THE SYSTEM FROM THE OH VALLEY
BY TUE MORNING. OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAINFALL OR SHOWERS SPREADS
N/NE INTO SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING RAINFALL ALL THE WAY NORTH TO ALMOST THE
CAPITAL REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE AND THE GEFS. CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO U40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO L40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUESDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH THE SFC WAVE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION...AND WHERE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WE HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC AND CHC POPS IN FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY.
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER OVER THE NRN ZONES
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE MAY OCCUR WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER SRN DACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTS OF
SRN VT. EXPECT MID AND U50S FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE LIGHT
RAIN OR SCT SHOWERS.

TUE NIGHT...A LULL IN THE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY ON...BUT ANOTHER
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SW FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF/GFS. THE BIGGER
ISSUE IS THE UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DIGGING EQUATORWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE A MAJOR
PLAYER IN TERMS OF MORE UNSETTLED WX TO CLOSE THE WEEK. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN GREEN MTNS
AND SRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...AN EVOLVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS. INITIALLY EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES WILL BRING SCT
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT. BY THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SCT SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH A
BIT WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OUR
HIGHEST POPS WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK MORE SEASONABLE
IN THE U50S TO M60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA TO BE DOMINATED BY CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES 2-3 SD
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE 1-2 SD ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECTED WEATHER COOL WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DANK...DREARY WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FOR SATURDAY...LOCAL WEATHER WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AND PROXIMITY TO EAST
COAST. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT ALL LEVELS
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY...TO WESTERLY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL AT LEAST BRING DRIER CONDITIONS. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES. BOTH 00Z OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS BRING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. GEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES FRONT
WILL STAY NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL MODELS WOULD
HAVE A CLOUDY...SHOWERY MOTHERS DAY WHILES GEFS WOULD INDICATE A
BREEZY...FAIR SUMMER LIKE DAY. FOR NOW...CHANCE POPS WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS...WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND FOG
AND LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...AVERAGING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.
THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5-10 KTS MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP.

TODAY LOOKS FAIRLY WET...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM ALBANY
NORTHWARD...LIGHTER RAIN TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER
SOUTH. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY NORTH OF ALBANY...BUT INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
SLOWLY WORKS IT WAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.

RH VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED EVERYDAY...EVEN ON TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT FOR THE STRETCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING FRIDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY TODAY...TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH RANGE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE
TO RECENT DRYNESS...AND THE VEGETATION IS GREENING UP. THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ONLY SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW
FOR THE ALBANY HSA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA



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