Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 270600
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers along and ahead of a frontal boundary will bring
rainfall to the region this morning. A drier pattern returns for
this afternoon into tonight before more moisture and the threat for
more showers arrives for the second half of the week. Temperatures
will moderate with slightly above normal values expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 140 AM EDT, showers have expanded across eastern NY and
western New England ahead of the occluded front. Brief bursts of
moderate rain are possible based on the latest KENX radar at 0530
UTC.

The latest HRRR has the showers quickly moving across the forecast
area between 08Z-10Z /4-6 AM/. Some residual light rain showers
or sprinkles may linger over portions of western New England
slightly later. Total rainfall amounts should average around one
quarter of an inch for most areas, with locally higher amts
possible across portions of the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley.

Some patchy fog may develop toward daybreak, especially if any
breaks in the higher clouds develop then. We have kept it out of
the fcst for now.

Low temperatures should mainly fall into the 50s with some spotty
upper 40s over southern VT and the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday into Tuesday night...Most of the region will be within the
dry slot to keep the area mainly rain-free. Thermal column remains
rather mild and with a southwest flow the temperatures should
climb well into the 60s to lower 70s for valley locations under
partly sunny skies. The moisture from the previous rainfall should
remain high enough into Tuesday night for patchy fog as winds
will be light and variable.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...The upper low over the southeast
CONUS is forecast to track northeast and off the Atlantic coast as
deep upper low over the Ohio Valley continues to slowly migrate
southward. These systems will act is tandem to advect in
additional moisture back into the region with an increasing east-
southeast low level flow. This will allow for clouds and the
chance for showers/drizzle to redevelop across the terrain
initially then across the remainder of the region Wednesday night.
Some model tendencies suggest an inverted trough axis develops but
location and convergent signatures remain in low confidence at
this time. At least temperatures should remain mild with mainly
60s for highs and lows between 45F and 55F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The one thing that is certain is the there remains considerable
uncertainty in the forecast for the latter half of the week and for
the weekend. Guidance is in general agreement that the large
vertically stacked low which is developing over the upper mid
west/western Great Lakes region will linger through the period,
however how this exact evolves is in question. Generally speaking,
the low is expected to be sinking gradually southward from the
Great Lakes region to over the KY-TN-WV-VA-NC area into Friday
before beginning to drift back north-northeastward through the
weekend. The operational GFS is farther to the east with the
low than the ECMWF. However, there is much spread in the GFSensemble
members as to the location and movement of the low.

With such uncertainty have used a blended model approach to the
forecast and have favored guidance from the Weather Prediction Center
to maintain forecast consistency. Refer their extended forecast
discussion for their insight into the forecast.

Overall have an unsettled forecast with chances for showers
through the period. As for temperatures, have seasonable daytime
temperatures with a bit above normal nighttime readings due to
expected cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers are occurring across the area impacting the TAF sites ahead
of an approaching occluded boundary. This boundary will move
across the region this morning. Conditions will lowering MVFR as
the boundary gets closer with IFR conditions possible near and
behind the boundary; have indicated this threat with a TEMPO
group in the TAFs. Conditions are expected to improve back to VFR
by mid to late morning with cloud cover decreasing for the
afternoon with mostly clear skies by late in the day/evening.

Southerly winds with shift more to the southwest in the wake of
the boundary but should remain light. A more westerly flow is
expected at KPSF.

The KENX VAD wind profile indicates 2000 foot winds are not as
strong as earlier so have removed the low level wind shear from
TAFs.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A period of showers are expected tonight with the passage of a
frontal boundary. Drier weather returns for Tuesday and Tuesday
night before additional moisture and shower potential increases
for the second half of this week.

The RH values have an excellent recovery to 90 to 100 percent
with the showers tonight. Expect a lowering of the RH values once
again to 35 to 50 percent Tuesday afternoon.

The winds will be from the south at 5 to 15 mph into tonight
with some gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range early in the evening.
The winds will shift to the southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph for
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro issues are expected the next 5 days ending on
Friday.

A beneficial rainfall arrives tonight as a frontal boundary approaches
from the west and moves across the region. Rainfall amounts of
about a quarter inch to a half of an inch are expected.

Isolated to scattered showers may return Wednesday night into
Friday with a cutoff cyclone.

Precipitation departures so far this year at our climate sites
are:
Albany NY: -3.65 inches
Glens Falls NY: -6.46 inches
Poughkeepsie NY: -11.66 inches
Bennington VT: -6.79 inches
Pittsfield MA: -8.27 inches

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 22nd shows drought
conditions have changed very little across the region. For details
visit: www.drought.gov

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/BGM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM/Wasula


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