Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 300603
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY CLOUDY COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME
AFTERNOON  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE
SURFACE. ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES WHERE MADE MAINLY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC
CIGS AT 7-8 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH A SMALL T-TD
SPREAD AT KGFL/KPSF...SOME IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THESE SITES LATE
IN THE NIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAKS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE.

ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOST SITES BKN AT 5-7 KFT BY THE AFTN
HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT BRIEF RAIN SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN
PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT THROUGH SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV





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