Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 240839
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
339 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...BRINGING A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
OUR AREA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. A
COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. 0-30MB AGL WINDS HAVE 40 TO 50 KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY TODAY...INITIALLY
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE FA IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST PLACES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK SOME
SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FA WILL BE MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AND TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF OUR COASTAL STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR WED MORNING INTO THU MORNING...

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
WILL IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
WED-THU TIME PERIOD. LATEST 00Z/24 NUMERICAL SOURCES OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MILLER-A TYPE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST WED INTO WED NT...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY THU MORNING.

THE 00Z/24 ECMWF REMAINS MOST CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
CYCLES...ALBEIT PERHAPS JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE 12Z/23
CYCLE...WHICH WAS SO FAR WEST IT MIGHT HAVE BROUGHT SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
00Z/24 GFS REMAINS FARTHER S AND E WITH THE TRACK...BUT STILL ALLOWS
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SNOW...TO AFFECT AREAS FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS S AND E. EVEN THE 00Z/24 GEM HAS TRENDED FARTHER N
AND W...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH OVERALL
PRECIP.

THE 00Z/24 GEFS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CYCLES...WITH ONE
ROBUST MEMBER IMPLYING WELL OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF
ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SEVERAL OTHERS WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
QPF IN THE 0.3-0.6 RANGE...AS SNOW.

GIVEN THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE SUCH AN ACTIVE TRAVEL WEEK DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY...AND INCREASING OVERALL CONFIDENCE...WE HAVE ISSUED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF EASTERN NYS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR 7 INCHES/12 HOURS...OR 9
INCHES/24 HOURS IS HIGHEST.

ONE OF THE SIGNIFICANT PLAYERS IN THE STORM...A PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS BECOMING BETTER
SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS. THE SECOND MAJOR PLAYER...ENERGY
JUST COMING ASHORE IN WESTERN CANADA...WILL BECOME BETTER SAMPLED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SO...HOPEFULLY MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL BECOME MORE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED LATER TODAY OR NIGHT. BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL REFINEMENTS IN DETAILS...AMTS...AND
TIMING FORTHCOMING.

BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH RATHER QUICKLY DURING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AGAIN...TIMING COULD BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT WITH
NEWER SOURCES OF GUIDANCE...SO STAY TUNED. SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THURSDAY MORNING.

SOME ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS TO PONDER ARE...HOW COLD THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE INITIALLY BEFORE DYNAMICAL AND WET BULB COOLING OCCUR
TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS COULD START
OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND REDUCE OVERALL ACCUMS.

ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N AND W WARMER MID LEVEL AIR
ADVECTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT SOME
POINT...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SNOW
SHOWERS FOR FRI...THEN AGAIN LATE SAT INTO SUN.

TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 30S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING.

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
AROUND 07Z/MON...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. WE EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 07Z-09Z/MON. CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT BTWN 07Z-09Z/MON. THE
WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL 17Z-19Z/MON. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR
TO VFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY TREND BACK TO MVFR/IFR AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET...ESP AT KGFL...BEFORE THE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
45-55 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL
TREND BACK DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 8-12 KT AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BETWEEN 04Z-06Z/TUE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY LOCATION WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT IS DDMN6 (DELTA DAM).

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE REGION
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-047-048-
     051-054-058-061-063-066-082.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MAZ001-025.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VTZ013>015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11






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