Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 261025
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region early today with no
showers expected. The boundary will lift back northward as a warm
front late today and tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will exist for
the holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon, most numerous on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As OF 530 AM a few patchy clouds associated with a very weak
frontal passage, were moving through the forecast area.

Temperatures ranged from around 60 in the Hudson valley from Albany
southward, lower to mid 50s in most outlying areas and north of
Albany, but as low as around 50 across portions of the Adirondacks.

It looks as if it will be another very warm day across our parts
with H850 temperatures around the same as yesterday, (+15C). High
pressure will be building offshore so our surface flow looks to
favor a more southerly flow 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be
close to what they were yesterday, perhaps a degree or two lower
since the mixing level might be a little lower than yesterday.
Still, look for highs in the mid to upper 80s Albany south, upper
70s to mid 80s across the higher terrain. The dewpoints in the 50s
might be a couple points higher, but still not all that humid.

By late in the day, a short wave will approach from the west. This
disturbance in conjunction with a boundary sitting just to our south,
could touch off a round of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms,
although SBCAPES do not look that high, generally 500-1000 J/KG at
most. For this reason, for now, only went slight chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Coverage of showers could expand this evening as a warm front lifts
northward, perhaps with an increase in low level winds inducing
isentropic lift. At this point we are not expecting a washout, but
there could scattered to perhaps numerous showers, especially late
evening.

It should be noted the 00z ECMWF indicated very little activity
tonight as the aforementioned warm front looks to "wash" out as mid
level heights rise. For now, held pops at only 30 percent.

By Friday, this front (or what is left of it) should have lifted
north of most of region. This will allow for an even more humid
airmass, as the season`s first Bermuda high takes full control of
our weather. Even without any significant boundary to focus lift,
there might be enough instability (1000-1500 J/KG) to produce
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of these could
produce gusty winds from the Capital region northward with slightly
better 0-6 KM bulk shear around 30KTS, compared to areas south of
the Capital region.

Any scattered convection should diminish after dark Friday
night,leaving us with our first real muggy night.

Saturday looks to start out dry, but it will be humid and could turn
downright hot as H850 temps look to peak around +18C that day. With
normal mixing to about 5000 feet AGL, valleys could easily reach
around 90 with higher terrain well into the 80s. Dewpoints will be
well into the 60s making for heat indices pushing high into the 90s
in the valleys, but likely staying below 100, so no heat headlines
are anticipated.

Once again, despite the lack of good focus for convection,
differential heating and a front not all the far north from us,
might be enough to get scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
going on by Saturday afternoon.

Once again, any activity should diminish after dark. However, as a
front begins to sag south again, convection might re-fire before
dawn Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather and very warm temperatures are expected during the
long term period.

Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous on Sunday as a
backdoor front slides southwest through the fa. MLMUCAPES are
expected to increase to 1500 to 2500 J/KG Sunday afternoon. Highs on
Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The backdoor
front will return north as a warm front Sunday night and Monday as a
cold front drops southeast from the eastern Great Lakes Monday night
and stalls across the Mid Atlantic region Tuesday night. There will
be chances for showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with
highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with
lows Monday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Overall temperatures are expected to be well above normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period ending at
12Z Friday.

There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through
tonight.

A weak boundary working southward will begin lifting northward
later on today. By that time, it will have more moisture and
possible short wave to work with, so shower threats will increase
with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into the evening.
For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and kept flying
conditions at VFR through tonight.

A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours...before
becoming light and variable this evening.

Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
EVE SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night through Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region tonight with no
showers. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected.

The season`s first Bermuda high will take control of our weather
starting Friday and lasting at least into the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect warm, increasingly humid day the continued chance for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, expect possibly
more numerous coverage on Sunday.

Each night will see RH values in the 75-100 percent, and RH values
will generally stay above 30 percent each of the next several
afternoon, generally in the moderate range.

The wind today will start out light and variable, become southerly 5-
15 mph and generally staying in the direction through at least
Saturday (lighter overnight).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are likely through at least the next
5 days ending Tuesday.

Today will start out dry, However, as warm front lifts northward,
there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms late today into
Friday with average river basin values below a quarter of an inch.


PWAT values will surge to well over an inch by Friday so any
thunderstorm on that day could contain localized heavy rainfall, but
not enough coverage to produce any significant rises on most if not
all of our watersheds. The same will be true for Saturday, with
just scattered thunderstorms expected.

Sunday could be a different story. We might have more expansive
coverage of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing more
extensive heavy rainfall. This rainfall could result in some
significant within bank rises on some streams and rivers. However it
has been dry of late, so right now not expecting any river flooding.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...HWJIV/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula


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