Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM I-90
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. RADARS NOW INDICATED A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS DISTURBED
WEATHER WAS THE RESULT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS...STARTING POPS A LITTLE
SOONER DUE TO ACTUAL COVERAGE. THOUGHT ABOUT LOWERING
TEMPERATURES MORE...BUT STILL POSSIBLE SOME BREAKS COULD RAISE
TEMPS UP TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.


FOR THE REST OF TODAY..EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (FA). THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WELL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FURTHER NORTH...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH KALB AND
KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW ENOUGH TO NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AFTER ANY PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURNS OFF AT KPSF BY
13Z/SUN. THERE WILL BE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MUCH OF THE
DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING OUT LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE.

FOR TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARD OR AFTER 06Z/MON...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF IFR AT
KPSF AFTER 07Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



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