Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 020013
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
813 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE AND
FOG TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. AS THIS LOW
MOVES AWAY, A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER NEW YORK
AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR SKIES. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL COME LATER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE... RGNL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE STEADIER SHWRS ARE
SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE E ATTM...ASSOCD WITH THE LATEST S/WV.
UPSTREAM...ACTIVITY LOOKS FAIRLY ISOLD...AND WE SUSPECT THAT WILL
REMAIN THE CASE OVERNIGHT...WITH NON-DESCRIPT MID TO UPR-LVL
FORCING...AND CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. WE`LL SIMPLY CALL
IT ISOLD SHWRS/PATCHY DRZL OVERNIGHT. WE`LL ALSO RETAIN OUR
MENTION FOR FOG...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT/DENSE FOG LIKELY TO
TAKE PLACE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER/LOW-LVL MOISTURE...WE WON`T SEE A GREAT
DIURNAL RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE UPR
40S-LWR 50S AT MOST LOCALES.

PREV DISC... MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE PA AND C NY. THE ACVTY WAS WINDING DOWN
SOME AS A SMALL SHRT WAVE RIPPLES TO THE NE INTO ERN NY/WRN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SMALL WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF WATER
VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY OVER C NY/NE PA AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHRT WAVE TROF AXIS
OVER LOWER MI THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING EWRD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SW FLOW AT 850 MB
OVER THE SFC BNDRY WHICH WAS SOUTHWEST OF NE PA AND C NY. THIS
INCREASED FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISEN ASCENT AND KEEP THE RAINS GOING.
WE EXPECT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY RAINS TO THE NW ACRS THE FINGER
LAKES AND THE MORE STEADIER RAINS TO THE SE IN NE PA WHERE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
TSRA FIRING IN SC PA BUT AT THE ACVTY WORKS NE IT ENCOUNTERS MORE
STABLE AIR AND WEAKENS. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA IN NE PA. BUT
WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN FOR LIGHT RAIN THRU THIS EVENING AND KEEP
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE GOING AS WELL THRU TONIGHT. SINCE THE
FRNTL BNDRY WAS JUST S OF OUR REGION AND THE COOL AIR WAS
SHALLOW...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FOG AROUND TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE DENSE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AGAIN
TONIGHT.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE LIGHT RAIN WILL HANG TOUGH THRU THE MORNING
WITH CONTINUED NERLY LL FLOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACRS THE
CATSKILLS AND NE PA LOOKING AT THE 925 MB RH FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE
STRG ERLY JUNE SUN AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOIST AIR FARTHER N
AND W IN C NY SHUD ALLOW THE BNDRY LAYER TO GROW ENUF TO ENTRAIN
DRIER AIR DOWN FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. THE LL MOISTURE WAS A
LITTLE DEEPER IN NE PA THAN C NY SO WILL HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING
FIRST UP N AND THEN WORK FARTHER S AS THE TUE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES COINCIDENT WITH THE MAX DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IN THE NRN STREAM FINALLY TRACKS E OF NY AND
PA BY TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SUBSDC AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HENCE SKIES SHUD FINALLY CLEAR OUT TUE
NGT WITH MS TO PC SKIES EXPECTED FOR WED INTO WED NGT.

SRN STREAM CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RUN FOR THE
NORTHEAST WED NGT AND ESPECIALLY THU. LATEST
SREF...NAM....GFS...EURO ALSO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES AT LEAST INTO NE PA AND SC NY BY LATE THU AS WINDS TURNLY
SRLY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS. SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC
TO CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM MON UPDATE... ALTHOUGH THE CUSTOMARY MODEL UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...THERE IS OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS PD WILL AT LEAST START OFF UNSETTLED.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
MEANDERING NEAR THE MID-ATL COAST THU NGT-FRI...AND PERHAPS INTO
SAT...WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRNT APPROACHES
NY/PA FROM THE NW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS/TSTMS...HENCE CHC POPS.

THEREAFTER (SUN ONWARD)...THINGS GET MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRNTL ZN IS
QUESTIONABLE. SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SHWRS WERE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SWD THROUGH NE PA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO FOR EARLY TO MID-
JUNE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUE UPDATE... VERY LOW CONDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AREA-WIDE
OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MRNG ON TUE. FOR KBGM/KITH...BLO ALT
MIN/IFR FLGT CATS SHOULD DETERIORATE BACK TWDS FIELD MINIMA
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EITHER LOW-END MVFR OR IFR FLGT CATS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ON TUE...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TWDS MIDDAY
(15-18Z)...WITH MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS FORESEEN BY THIS TIME.
WE MAY EVEN SEE UNRESTRICTED CONDS SET IN VERY LATE IN THE DAY AT
KRME/KSYR/KELM...WHERE SOME LOW-LVL DRYING SHOULD FIRST TAKE
PLACE.

SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY LGT THROUGH THE PD (GENERALLY AOB 5
KT).

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED EARLY...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN
LOW CLDS AND/OR FOG PSBL OVERNIGHT.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

THU-SAT...AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SCTD SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.