Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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147
FXUS61 KBGM 232345
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cloudy sky will persist this morning with only isolated
showers. However, showers and thunderstorms will become
likely, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with
locally heavy rainfall possible. After some more showers and
storms Monday, the weather looks drier and cooler for Tuesday
and Wednesday, before rain chances increase again Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
740 PM EDT Update...
A few heavy showers have developed this evening across the
area. The atmos is very moist and expect the possibility for
flash flooding to continue to exist through the overnight
period. The flash flood watch is still in effect for through
tomorrow morning. Still expect showers to become more widespread
through the overnight period. Will closely monitor the
situation as it evolves. We may need to add the far northern
counties into the flash flood watch if confidence increases that
heavy rainfall will reach our northern counties.

Previous forecast discussion...
300 PM EDT Update...
Updated pops in the forecast as confidence has increased that
we could see a heavy rainfall event across the region. Decided
to issue a flash flood watch for all of our NEPA counties and
Central Southern Tier, NY, Western Catskills and the Susquehanna
Region. PWAT values has risen to 1.5 inches, SB CAPE values
range from 1000 to 500 J/KG, 0-6 KM Bulk shear is around 40
knots. This should be enough for thunderstorm development and
continuation.

The big picture overall is that a well defined shortwave
currently located over the Great Lakes will drop south and its
attendant sfc low will shift a sfc boundary/warm front north
this afternoon across central NY/northeast PA. As this occurs,
embedded waves within the SW flow aloft will help initiate
showers and thunderstorms along this feature which will be aided
by the right entrance of the upper lvl jet. So far SB CAPE
values are slow to rise but if we can manage a few breaks in the
cloud coverage those low values should rise to around 1000 J/kg
or higher.

As this boundary lifts north this afternoon/evening, a semi-
decent low-lvl jet will develop around 850mb which may be able
to transport enough low-lvl moisture into central NY to create
heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall was previously though to only be
a threat over NEPA, now it looks to be a threat over the whole
CWA late this evening through 3AM.

Showers are expected to become become more widespread across
the region after 5 PM. SPC currently has most of the CWA I-81
and west under a slight risk and NEPA. Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are the main threats. We have the wind profiles for
severe weather to develop but may not have steep enough lapse
rates or enough instability.

Showers will likely continue though the overnight period.

Highs today will be upper 70s-lower 80s, which is right around
climatology though it will be humid; followed by lows in the
60s tonight.

By Monday morning a secondary low will become well defined off
the east coast and the sfc low that brought the warm front
across the region on Sunday will start to weaken. The overall
system then will become stacked and the low will just become
washed out over the region. While it does this, there will still
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms over the region as
cool air aloft, steep lapse rates makes a great environment for
this to occur. Temps Monday will vary greatly depending on
east/west of I-81. I-81 and west will rise into the mid/upper
70s, while I-81 and east will mostly be in the 60s and struggle
to reach the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused around the exiting
upper short wave and inverted surface trough ewd and dissipating
showers and storms from west to east Monday night/Tuesday
morning...then a dry period through Wednesday, with only a
slight chance of a shower or weak storm Wed afternoon.

The upper trough axis will be directly overhead Monday night,
along with an area of colder temperatures aloft capable of
producing steep lapse rates and interacting with the low level
forcing from an inverted trough to produce scattered rain
showers and isolated t-storms. Deep layer moisture will be
limited or slowly decreasing during this time, so convection
should have a hard time developing. Plus, with the loss of
daytime heating, most of the instability should be quickly
ramping down through the evening, and remain fairly stable in
the boundary layer through the night. May see a few lingering
showers Tuesday morning across the Catskills and Mohawk valley
area, but the overall trend should be to dry out.

Weather conditions should remain dry Tue night and Wed morning
with the threat of valley fog the only concern. Will see a ridge
of high pressure build across the region on Wed, and most of the
day should be quiet, with sunny skies in the morning and diurnal
cumulus in the afternoon, along with a few showers popping.

Highs will top out in the upper 60s and 70s on Tue and Wed, with
overnight lows in the 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 pm update...
Not much change in the long term with a cold front still
expected to move across the region Thursday and early Friday
with more showers and storms possible. Behind the front going
into the weekend conditions will dry out and remain quiet most
of the time with day time highs in the 70s and lower 80s...and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface low will stall over the region and create and
environment conducive for VFR TSRA for most of the TAF period.
ATTM most of the sites are VFR, expect TAF sites to become
MVFR/fuel alternate shortly after issuance and KSYR, KELM, and
KBGM will likely see IFR flight conditions tonight. Showers are
expected to become widespread across the region late tonight and
linger through much of the day tomorrow. Taf sites may become
VFR at the end of period.

Winds will be light and variable through 12Z Mon, then become
southerly around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday & Tuesday ...Periodic restrictions in showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday & Friday...Chance of showers-storms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for NYZ024-025-
     044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KAH



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