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000
FXUS61 KBGM 230123
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
923 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will provide mild temperatures and
mainly clear skies through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
915 PM EDT Update...
Cloud coverage have dissipated this evening and mostly clear
skies are prevailing. This will allow for prime radiational
cooling tonight and temps to fall. Have adjusted temps a few
degrees to match current trends, and may have to lower a bit
more as temps are falling faster than expected. But, overall no
significant changes have been made to the previous forecast. For
more information please read the previous forecast discussion
below.

Previous forecast discussion...
A strong upper level ridge will remain anchored over the region
through this period and post tropical storm Jose moves farther
off the east coast. Mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights
are forecast with valley fog both tonight and Saturday night
across the river basins. Overnight lows will generally range in
the lower to middle 50s with lows Saturday night in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Highs on Saturday will range in the lower to
middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change to the forecast. Very quiet weather continues
Sunday and Monday with the only concern being very warm
temperatures and the potential for valley fog in the late night/
early morning.

Large dome of high pressure and an anomalously warm air
mass...850mb temps around +20 deg C, roughly 2-3 standard
deviations above normal...will be situated over the region
Sunday and Monday, which will produce mostly clear skies and
high temperatures well into the 80s. A few locations touching 90
is not of the question. Clear skies at night and strong
raditional cooling at the surface will once again create
favorable conditions for valley fog. Lows will be mainly in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong upper level ridge with unseasonable warmth along with dry
conditions persists through Tuesday. Tuesday`s highs will once
again be in the 80s. By next Wednesday, the ridge will begin to
break down as a cold front approaches from the north and west.
Also, Maria will be moving north and likely somewhere off the
Carolina coast around this time but will likely stay far enough
east not to have a major impact on our weather. The cold front
will bring a chance of showers and even a few thunderstorms by
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Beyond this time,
temperatures will return to more seasonable levels as the ridge
is replaced by an upper level trough. While no major systems are
foreseen at this time for late next week, we keep low chances
for showers in the forecast due to upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Valley fog will form once again overnight. At KELM/KITH,
conditions will deteriorate to near airport minimums between
06Z-09Z then remain near airport minimums until 14Z- 15Z. At
KSYR/KAVP/KBGM, MVFR conditions will be possible between 08Z-
14Z. Restrictions are not forecast at KRME. Outside of the fog,
VFR conditions are expected with just SCT/BKN cirrus.

Light and variable winds tonight will become westerly around 6
knots on Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...VFR except for fog possible
each late night/early morning, especially at KELM but for other
terminals as well at times.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MSE/RRM