Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
937 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING COOL AIR BUT
SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST LATER TODAY AND ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...
MANY REPORTS OF FIRST FROST THIS MORNING...WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL
NEW YORK HAVING DIPPED WELL INTO THE 30S BY DAWN. TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP QUICKLY NOW WITH FULL SUNSHINE...EXCEPT FOR WHERE
VALLEY FOG STILL PERSISTS /MAINLY TWIN TIERS/...AND WHERE SOME LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BANKED UP AGAINST THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS.
ALL THAT SHOULD MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AND EVERYONE WILL HAVE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY. GRIDS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY TO KEEP UP
WITH SKY-TEMP DETAILS THIS MORNING...OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK
JUST FINE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRISK MORNING, TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TODAY AS WAA
QUICKLY RETURNS BEHIND THE HIGH IN THE DVLPG ZONAL FLOW. SKIES SHD
GNRLY BE CLR AFTER ANY MRNG FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS PSBL IN
THE WAA PTRN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SWLY FLOW DVLPS SAT AHD OF A BROAD TROF DROPPING INTO THE
LAKES. SOME RDGG OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE FNT PARALLELING THE FLOW
WILL SLOW THE FWRD MVMT OF THE FNT KEEPING SAT DRY ACROSS THE FCST
AREA.

TIMING OF THE FNT DFCLT AT THIS RANGE BUT IT APPEARS THAT
PERHAPS A LDG TROF MAY TRIGGER SHWRS WELL AHD OF THE FNT EARLY
SUN...FLWD BY ANT CONV ALONG WITH THE FNT LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY
MON. IN ANY EVENT...HAVE LEFT THE POPS AS IS FOR SUN ALONG WITH
SOME ISLTD TRW. AS IS USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...INSTABILITY LOOKS
MRGNL BUT SHEAR IS IMPRSV SO ANY CONV THAT FIRES COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME SVR. FOR NOW...THREAT IS LIMIED SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER. MONDAY WILL BE COOL
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY A WEAK
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY
RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND A BIT BELOW NORMAL AT NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
PATCHY STRATO-CU ACRS PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN CATSKILLS/NE PA AND
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS MRNG.
CAN`T RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR DUE TO CIGS EARLY THIS MRNG BUT PROBS
APPEAR TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AT ELM LIFR VLY FOG SHUD BURN
OFF BY 14Z. LATER THIS MRNG AND THIS AFTN...XPCT MAINLY SKC CNTRL
NY WITH SCT CU ACRS THE FAR SRN TIER AND NE PA. LOW LVL MSTR WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT IN ON SELY FLOW TNGT WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR
CIGS TO PORTIONS OF THE RGN. IT APPEARS THIS DECK WILL MOVE INTO
AVP 03-05Z WITH MVFR DECK SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADING INTO CNTRL NY
AFTER THIS TIME. WINDS L&V EARLY THIS MRNG...BECMG SELY THIS AFTN
5-10 KTS...INCRSNG TNGT FROM THE SSE TO 10-15 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT
KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS...ESPECIALLY SUN.

TUE...VFR WILL LIKELY RETURN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...





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