Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 261953
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
THEN DRY COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP TELLS THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WITH THE LAST OF THE
CLOUDS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES AND
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE
OHIO VALLEY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 CURRENTLY AND EXPECT
SIMILAR READINGS IN OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE NAM IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PLENY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SATURATION WHILE
THE GFS INDICATES A SUNNIER FORECAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM IT APPEARS
THAT THE SUNNIER FORECAST MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE REALISTIC. HAVE
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SOMEWHAT WITH AN INCREASINGLY CLOUDY FORECAST
BUT WITH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST PA.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND RAIN MAY BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
OVER NORTHEAST PA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWS THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. FARTHER NORTH A BIT OF SNOW
MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH... BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO -6 TO -8 C OVER LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE SUNDAY... BUT THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND AT MOST JUST A FEW
LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT... ALTHOUGH
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY CLIPPING EAST CENTRAL PA AS ANOTHER WAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER AT
THIS POINT ALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THAT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ALSO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO -10 TO
-12 BY MONDAY MORNING OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH A LIGHT NW FLOW.
WITH LIGHT FLOW AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE AGAIN WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PD SHOWS A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE WINTER LIKE WX INCLUDING COLDER
AIR BUT WITHOUT A MAJOR STORMS SYSTEM. LARGE SCALE PTRN SHOWS A
DVLPG BROAD UPR TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND THE ERN US WITH A LRG
1052MB POLAR SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN PLAINS OF CANADA. AS THIS HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE CNTRL US BY THE NEW YEAR...VARIOUS WEAK WVS IN THE
NW FLOW OVER THE LAKES SWEEP THRU THE AREA. EVENTUALLY...SOME LE
SNOWS SEEM LIKELY TO DVLP BUT MORE WLY LL FLOW SHD KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA. XPCT THE MAJORITY OF
THE FCST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPS AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PLUNGES SWRD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. SOME OCNL LE PSBL...BUT MAINLY OVER THE XTRM
NRN CWA.

FOR THE FCST FLWD THE HP GUID CLOSELY BUT DID MODIFY A BIT IN SOME
PDS TWRDS THE MEX GUID IF IT HELPED COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SC DECK HAS BURNED OFF AT ALL SITES XCPT RME WHERE THERE/S ENUF OF
A WLY FLOW TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. PLENTY OF
EVIDENCE FORM CNRTS AND FCSTS THAT A SLY FLOW THERE WILL BRING
THEM TO SCT CONDS AS WELL THIS AFTN. AFTER THAT...PRETTY MUCH SCT
OR CLR CONDS AS RDGG BLDS IN FROM THE SOUTH TNGT AND SAT. HI
RESMODLES SUGGEST THAT SOME VFR CLDS COULD DVLP LATE TNGT AT
RME...BUT OTRW XPCT NO CIGS. WLY SFC FLOW ATTM WILL BECOME MORE
SLY AND LGT OVRNGT...AND REMAIN SO THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT NGT-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW
SHOWERS.

SUN NGT-MON...MAINLY VFR.

TUE/WED...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FOR KSYR AND
KRME DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM/TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.