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000
FXUS61 KBGM 301047
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 4 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME
WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD
WITH MUCH OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
THAT IS FORCING IT. OVER CENTRAL NY/NE PA SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
WITH VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SARANAC LAKE IN THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WAS DOWN TO 39 DEGREES AT 08Z.

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MODELS INDICATING
A SHORT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND SLIGHT CHC OVER THE FAR SE
FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT
WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF TRW.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH ADVANCING SHORT WAVE, TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL RISE BY FRIDAY AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS
WEST OF REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED POPS QUICKLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE NRN CWA AND CHC
OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY. DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL POOL ALOFT AND
SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TRW. THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE AND COOL WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND SOUTHWEST MODERATING FLOW. LATER IN THE DAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MAY LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM TUE UPDATE... THE LARGE-SCALE PATN OF A WRN CONUS RIDGE AND ERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PD...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD LOSE
SOME AMPLITUDE/RETROGRADE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHWRS/TSTMS ARE FORESEEN
EACH DAY...PERHAPS MOST NUMEROUS FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS...WHEN A
COASTAL SFC BNDRY BACKS SLOWLY WWD...AND ALSO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHC/SCTD POPS WILL BE
EMPLOYED FOR NOW...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME
RANGES.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASING DECK OF MID CLOUDS AROUND 7KFT MOVING
IN AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE TWO EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KELM AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT KBGM DUE TO FOG THIS MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KELM WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO IFR AND THEN VFR BY 1330Z. AT KBGM
FOG IS CREEPING UP THE HILL AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBYS
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE A QUICK RETURN TO VFR.

RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN NY
STATE. WHILE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME IN THE 18Z TO 03Z TIME
FRAME, I TRIED TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES WITH A TEMPO GROUP.

WINDS LGT/VRB WILL INCREASE TO BTWN 5-10KTS FROM THE SW AFTER 14Z
TODAY. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT OR NEAR CALM.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN