Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 060721
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
221 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL MISS US COMPLETELY ON MONDAY, BUT A WEAKER STORM
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A FEW SNOWS SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
215 AM UPDATE...

THE TREND IS TO REMOVE LES FROM NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SOONER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LATEST CANADIAN REGIONAL AND NAM12 WEAKEN THE
BAND AND PUSH IT WELL NORTH OF OUR FA BY 12Z.

EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES, WHILE COOLER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS, ARE
STILL MILD FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -7C.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH 37F TO 41F ACROSS MOST OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A VERY QUIET WEEKEND IS FORECAST WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING.

A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT THE US/CANADIAN BORDER LATE
SATURDAY, BUT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS MILD FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY. 925MB TEMPS AROUND -3C AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD
SUPPORT SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.

TWIN SURFACE CYCLONES WILL FORM WITHIN THE UL TROF ON MONDAY, WITH
THE STRONGER COASTAL VERSION MISSING US COMPLETELY WHILE THE
WEAKER CONTINENTAL STORM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO NY/PA LATE MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLOW
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH IMPACTS WELL TO THE EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES... HOWEVER THE
LOW- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE OCEAN STORM WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. AS A RESULT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WEAK... DISORGANIZED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BASED ON
THIS WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
UNLIKELY. EVENTUALLY SOME COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH
WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5K FT WITH
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW BY MID MORNING AT 8-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 15-18 KNOTS ON THE HILLTOPS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SSW THIS
EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...VFR.

MON AFTN THRU WED...CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...BJT/MDP/MSE
AVIATION...RRM


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