Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 011101
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
701 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SKY WILL STAY OVERCAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
BATCHES OF RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN BETWEEN.

RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS HAS BEEN FIGHTING ITS WAY INTO DRY
AIR...BUT IS GRADUALLY WINNING. IT HAS REACHED THE FINGER LAKES TO
TWIN TIERS...AND WILL OVERSPREAD POCONOS-CATSKILLS-MOHAWK VALLEY
BY DAWN. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH
LAKE ONTARIO TO FAR NORTHER NEW YORK. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH HAS DEEP MOISTURE POOLED WITH IT. WE ARE FIGURING ON
FOUR TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH TOTAL RAINFALL...MOST OF IT THROUGH
MAINLY THIS MORNING. WITH COOL STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER-FINGER LAKES
WILL MANAGE MID 50S FOR HIGHS...EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE WAVE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SCATTERED MUCH OF
TODAY...YET LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER TO FINGER LAKES OF NY COULD RESULT IN MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON...PRESSING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD YIELD
A FEW ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS...AS
REFLECTED BY SHOWALTER INDICES GETTING BELOW ZERO IN MOST MODELS.
OTHER THAN THAT...ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PRETTY SCATTERED TONIGHT.
THEN...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL APPROACH TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
TO CAUSE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TO MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SHORTWAVE...IN TANDEM WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX
ALOFT...WILL CARRY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THIS WILL REPRESENT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN...ANOTHER FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH ON AVERAGE...YET THE PATTERN WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE WAVE MONDAY MORNING...BEYOND THEN THE MODELS
DIFFER IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES AS THE FRONTAL ZONE GETS
HUNG UP SOMEWHERE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SO WHILE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING...THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SMALL DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE WSW TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...LOW 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S SOUTH. STILL A BIT SHORT OF CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH LESS OF A GRADIENT WITH UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS FOR LOWS...UPPER 30S-MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN A FEW DEGREES UP FROM THAT TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK, SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES, BASICALLY ON THE
FORWARD SIDE OF A BIG OMEGA BLOCK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN QUESTION, ITS
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

AS A RESULT OF THE WHAT WAS JUST DESCRIBED ABOVE, WE`LL CONTINUE
WITH A FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC FORECAST (MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES, CHANCE-
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS, AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY MAY) RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH AN
"ALL-DAY WASHOUT" WOULD BE UNLIKELY ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN EACH DAY LOOKS LIKE A SOLID BET
AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR-IFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING A BIT LONGER. EVEN AT THESE TWO
SITES, THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH 14-16Z, COULD
PRODUCE PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING
BASES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KITH WILL PROBABLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR AGAIN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY, AS STEADIER
RAIN RE-DEVELOPS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ


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