Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 290647
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO NY AND PA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
210 AM UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AS THE COLD POOL GETS CUT OFF FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND THE UL
TROF EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. 925MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH COLDER
THAN NORMAL HOWEVER, WITH READINGS FROM -3C TO -6C OVER THE REGION
AT 18Z. THEREFOR MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC TROF WILL PUSH INTO NY AND PA TONIGHT.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THE NEAR LAKE
COUNTIES WILL SEE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT AND A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF SNOW FALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FA IS PROBABLY BEFORE 6Z-8Z. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE COLDER INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA CTY...HENCE THE HIGHER SNOW
FALL TOTALS. A GENERAL HALF INCH IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NY,
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S MONDAY, CHANGING THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO RAIN SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
WED AND THU LITTLE CHANGE. STILL MODEL DIVERGENCE FRIDAY FORWARD.
CANADIAN AND EURO SIMILAR WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY THAT STALLS
OVER THE AREA. A STRONG LOW MOVES NE ALONG IT WITH MORE RAIN FRI
NGT AND SAT. GFS STILL PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH THE LOW
WELL SOUTH FRI NGT. THIS HAS A BIG EFFECT ON THE POPS AND TEMPS.
LEANED TOWARD WPC AND UPPED THE TEMPS AND POPS SOME THU NGT TO
SAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST AREAS WITH TEENS LIKELY ACROSS
ONEIDA COUNTY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BRIGHT BUT COOL AS THE RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S NORTH TO THE 40S SOUTH.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND WEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST RELAXES AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WSW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY ALONG
WITH WARMER TEMPS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
50S. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THIS TIME AS THE GFS DRAGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH HEADING INTO FRIDAY WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PUT THE
AREA ON THE COLD, SNOWIER SIDE OF THE NEXT LOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
EAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT
AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS COLD FRONT HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND IS
ALSO MUCH STRONGER WITH THE NEXT LOW...TAKING IT TO OUR WEST WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN RAIN AND CONTINUING MILDER TEMPS. IN ANY EVENT
PATTERN OVER THE EAST LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
130 AM SUNDAY UPDATE...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK NW FLOW HAS FORMED A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS OFF
OF CAYUGA LAKE INTO ITHACA. THIS SHOULD BREAK UP TOWARDS SUNRISE.

TODAY CLEAR THEN A MID DECK COMING IN THIS EVENING. SNOW SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6Z BUT MIGHT BE CLOSE AT SYR.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NW AT 5 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AT 4 TO 7 KTS AROUND 14Z. THIS AFTN WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE S MOST SITES AND SE SYR/RME.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN OVERNIGHT TO TUE NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/SNOW
AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH.

WED TO THU MORN...VFR.

THU AFTN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PCF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





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