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000
FXUS61 KBGM 020300
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1000 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...OUR WEATHER
THEN LOOKS MAINLY DRY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A
WINTRY MIX ANTICIPATED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
EXITING WAVE IS TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY WITH IT...AND DRY
SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS-FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED STEUBEN-TIOGA NY AND
BRADFORD PA FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THE REMAINING
ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS TO 7 AM...ALMOST ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW /JUST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES/ WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND 2 AM. SO CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AREAWIDE.

7 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NEW
YORK. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH NICE BATCH
OF ENHANCED SNOW ONGOING AS EXPECTED DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND
WAVES PASSING ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR PD OF STEADIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS EVE...AS
IMPROVING UPR JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF ADDITIONAL
MID-LVL S/WVS...A SFC COLD FRNT...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GOMEX (AS ILLUSTRATED BY THE LATEST
BLENDED TPW/LYRD PW DATA). WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1-3" LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE OVER MOST OF THE ADVSY AREA...BRINGING TOTALS INTO THE
3-6" RANGE BY LTR TNT. OVER PTNS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND CNTRL SRN
TIER IN NY...ALTHOUGH SOME UPTICK IN SNOWFALL IS LIKELY FOR A
BRIEF TIME THIS EVE...DEEP S TO SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...AND RESULTANT LWR ACCUMS.

USING HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DATA AS A GUIDE...WE EXPECT
STEADIER SNOW TO END FROM W TO E...GENERALLY IN THE 03-06Z TIME
FRAME. DURG THE PRE-DAWN HRS...WE SHOULD BE LEFT MAINLY WITH
JUST LWR CLDS AND SCTD FLRYS. SNOW SHWRS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TWDS 09-12Z ACRS OUR NRN ZNS...AS LOW-LVL CAA AND
LINGERING MOISTURE ELICIT SOME RESPONSE OFF LK ONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA TUESDAY...

THE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA NOW... WILL CREATE LE
SNOW SHOWERS IN IT`S WAKE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON TUESDAY.

A POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN
CO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN UP TO QUEBEC. THIS
TYPE OF SYSTEM IS KNOW AS A LAKE RUNNER.

THE LOW`S MID LVL WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA STARTING AROUND 12Z TUESDAY AND INDUCE STRONG WAA OVER THE
REGION. BY 18Z TUES... VERY STRONG WAA WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION AS THE LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS JET
WILL RESULT IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR THE AREA... WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIDE SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OVER NY AND PA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A QUICK BURST OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR AS
PRECIP FIRST DEVELOPS.

HOWEVER... WITH SUCH STRONG WAA OVER THE REGION... SNOW WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SFC TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON TUES/EARLY WED MORNING AND RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IN THIS
SITUATION TEMPS WILL BE DECEIVING IN THE FACT THE GROUND AND
OBJECTS NEAR THE SFC HAS BEEN SO COLD FOR SO LONG THE PRECIP MAY
STILL FREEZE ON CONTACT.... LIKE FREEZING RAIN... EVEN THOUGH THE AMBIENT
TEMP IS ABOVE FREEZING. ATTM...SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

THE SFC LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WED MORNING AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER. LE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FROPA. THE COLD AIR ATTENDANT WITH THE FRONT
WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOVE CREEP INTO THE REGION... THUS PRECIP
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO TRANSITION BACK TO ALL SNOW.
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LE SHOWER BEHIND THE FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW IS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 3Z AND 7Z, BUT IN THE MEANTIME,
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

BY MID MORNING MONDAY, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE KSYR
TERMINAL WITH IFR VISIBILITIES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW, POTENTIALLY
CAUSING ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NGT-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-036-
     037-044>046-056-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ/MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP