Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 101112
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
712 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME MORNING VALLEY FOG...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LGT SHWRS MVG NWRD OVER CNTRAL PA IS FCST TO WEAKEN BY ALL
MODELS. NLY FLOW FROM A SFC HI NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SHD GENERATE ENUF
DRY AIR TO KEEP THE SHWRS FROM MAKING TOO MUCH PROGRESS NWRD
DESPITE THE ELY FLOW OVER SRN PA...SO WILL KEEP SOME SLGT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR A FEW HRS OVER THE SOUTH...THEN CONT WITH DRY WX THRU
THE DAY. HI TEMPS TODAY WILL AVG A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML ALL ZONES
DESPITE THE SUN...ESP OVER THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MESOSCALE RDGG SLOWLY BRKS DOWN THRU THE PD. SFC HIPRES SLIDES
EAST THRU THE PD AS MOISTURE LURKS JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE ELY
RETURN FLOW. SO...WHILE THE FCST AREA SEES GNRLY DRY AND SUNNY
CONDS THOSE WHO HAVE CHOSEN VACATIONS IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONT TO SEE ELY FLOW AND PCPN. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. SLGT ADJUSTMENT TO
THE HI PSN WLD ALLOW AFTN CONV SHWRS TO BRK OUT...ESP OVER NEPA.

AIR MASS SLOWLY MODIFIES THRU THE SHRT TERM ALLOWING DAYTIME MAXES
TO SLOWLY RISE ABV NRML BY SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL
TRENDS. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS IS A WHOPPING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS BY MONDAY EVENING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF IT...ZONAL FLOW WILL TILT SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION AS WELL AS EMBEDDED
WAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW. THEN SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THUS PERIOD LOOKS BUSY WITH GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN QUIET
AND QUITE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CRASH
BELOW 560DM OVER OUR REGION...ON PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LOW
SHIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH SHEAR INCREASING THROUGH THE
COLUMN DUE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW AROUND THE VERY DEEP UPPER LOW.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS AS DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT WNW TO NW DURING THE DAY AT
KITH-KSYR-KRME. LEFTOVER IFR STRATUS AT KAVP AND VALLEY FOG KELM
WILL SCATTER OUT/LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z...AS WELL AS MVFR VIS MIST
AT KITH...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING 5-6 KFT
DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG TO REDEVELOP AT
KELM TONIGHT. KITH-KRME COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR MIST.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP





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