Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 281551
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1051 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 AM UPDATE: EXPANDED CHANCE POPS FROM LAKE EFFECT S/E INTO OTSEGO
AND NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST RADAR. ALSO MADE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON HOURLY
TEMPS, DEW POINTS AND WINDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: SHRP UPR WV OVER WRN NY ATTM MVG SLOWLY
EAST. SOME LGT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHWRS ALONG AND AHD OF THE UPR
TROF MVG INTO THE FCST AREA ATTM. AS THE WV PULLS OUT...A WELL
ALIGNED WLY FLOW DVLPS AVERAGING ARND 280 DEGREES. WITH RSNBL
INSTABILITY OFF THE LAKE AND A FAIRLY HI INV...SINGLE BAND LE
EVENT IS XPCTD TO DVLP OFF ONTARIO INTO THE NRN ZONES. MVMT OF THE
UPR WV HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN XPCTD SO THE BAND HAS NOT YET
DVLPD...BUT THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW IT TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR...LWRD INV...AND STRENGTHENING LL SHEAR
WEAKENS THE BAND. HAVE GONE AHD AND XTNDD THE ADVISORY THRU 00Z TO
CVR THE XPCTD BAND TIMING.

SNOWFALL AMTS HAVE BEEN EDGED UP A BIT...AND OF COURSE XTNDD INTO
THE EVE. TOTAL AMTS NOT ALL THAT MUCH MORE SINCE THE ONSET IS
DELAYED...AND BAND SHD CONT TO DRFT NORTH...ESP NEAR THE END OF
THE ADVISORY PD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SVRL FACTORS BRING AN END TO THE LE BAND IN THE FCST AREA
INCLUDING SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND A MORE SWLY FLOW DVLPG AHD OF
THE NEXT WV. OVRNGT HRS SHD GNRLY BE DRY OTR THAN THE CHANCE OF A
BIT OF ERIE LE AND WEAK OVERRUNNING PCPN INTO SAT MRNG.

GNRLY OVC SAT AS THE WAA CONTS AND STILL THE CHANCE OF SOME LGT
PCPN...ESP OVER THE NRN AND WRN ZONES WITH STRONGER UVM AND SOME
LAKE MOISTURE AVBL. GNRL WSW FLOW WITH POCKETS OF MID LVL MOISTURE
AND LIFT SAT NGT INTO SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO OVC SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LGT PCPN. TEMPS ON SUN HI ENUF FOR FOR ANY PCPN TO BE LIQUID.
TEMPS SUN WILL RISE TO TO ABV NRML...BUT GUID MAY NOT BE FULLY
ACCOUNTING FOR THE SNOW CVR...ESP OVER THE ERN ZONES SO HAVE GONE
SLGTLY COOLER IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM UPDATE...
00Z GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST WITH FROPA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM.
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS CDFNT WL BE LOCATED ALONG ERN SEABOARD BY 12Z
MONDAY WHILE EC HAS FNT BISECTING CWA WITH CMC STILL BACK TO THE
WEST. HV MADE NO CHGS TO MONDAY FCST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
ON SPEED OF FROPA. NW FLOW FOLLOWING FRONT WL LKLY BRING LK EFFECT
SNOWS TO FAVORED REGIONS MON NGT BFR 1040MB HIGH BUILDS OVR CWA ON
TUESDAY.

EXPECT TUE TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NOT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB MUCH ABV FRZG, SOME 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MV IN LATE TUE NGT WITH CDFNT EXPECTED TO MV THRU
ON WED. SRLY FLOW AHD OF FRONT WL LEAD TO RAIN/SNOW MIX DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CASES LK EFFECT SNOW WL FOLLOW FROPA FOR
WED NGT. MODEL DISCREPANCY CONTS LATE IN EXTNDD DUE TO UPR LVL
PATTERN WITH EC MORE AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. HV MADE NO CHGS TO END OF
THE WEEK BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
A BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME
WITH MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT IFR SNOW AT RME BY 14Z WHILE
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS BECOME VFR AFTER THIS TIME. MAY SEE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS HANG ON AT RME THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY AS WNW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OFF OF LK ONTARIO.

NEXT ROUND OF SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY AND ONLY INDICATE LOWERING VFR CIGS AFTER 05Z.

WINDS OUT OF THE WNW 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME SWRLY TWD 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ009-018-036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVF
AVIATION...PVF






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