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000
FXUS61 KBGM 070009
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
709 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE GENERALLY
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE AT 7 PM...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS NE PA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. BEEN GETTING
REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIP FROM THE NY SOUTHERN TIER SOUTH THROUGH NE
PA. STILL EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER OVER NIGHT. FORECAST FOR SYR AND
UTICA TOUGH AS THEY ARE RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND WILL BE MORE LES ON THE BACKSIDE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

S/WV APRCHNG TNGT WILL SPREAD SNOW AND MIXED PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA
STARTING LATE THIS AFTN. MDL GDNC IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TRANSITION
ZONES WILL BE ACRS THE POCONOS THIS EVNG...WITH COOLING AS THE
OVRNGT HRS PROGRESS. BEST FORCING IN TERMS IF ISEN LIFT/QVECS AND
FGEN ALSO LIE ACRS THIS AREA. WE NOTE THAT QPF HAS BEEN OVERDONE IN
THE MDLS WITH RECENT SYSTEMS.

XPCT PCPN TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW TNGT ACRS CNTRL
NY...WITH SOME PL MIXING IN ACRS THE FAR SRN TIER. ACRS NE
PA...POTNL FOR A RAIN TO PL/FZRA MIX THIS EVNG THEN THERE SHUD BE
FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW. POTNL FOR GREATEST SNOW AMTS APPEARS TO
LIE JUST N OF THE TRANSITION ZONE ACRS FAR NRN PA INTO THE SRN
CATSKILLS. XPCT SNOW RATIOS AROUND 12 TO 1, AND MIXED PCPN WILL
TAPER THE SNOW AMTS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE PA. HOWEVER...SIG DIFFS IN
THE PROFILES FOR AVP WITH GFS SUGGESTING ALOT OF PL AND
FZRA...WHILE THE NAM CHGOVR TO SNOW OCCURS BY 03Z SUGGESTING SNOW
ACCUMS WELL INTO THE ADVISORY RNG. THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY ARISES.

ACRS THE NRN FINGER LAKES...XPCT SNOW ACCUMS TO FALL BLO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A 2-5 INCH ACCUM APPEARS
LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL NY (GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE NY/PA
BORDER)...WITH AMTS IN THE 3-6 INCH RNG ACRS FAR NRN PA INTO THE
WRN CATSKILLS. EVENT APPEARS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH ARND 6 HRS
OR SO OF MDT PCPN. GIVEN THIS...WE ARE PLANNING ON KEEPING THE
ADVISORIES AS IS. WE COULD SEE A 7 INCH REPORT IN THIS HEAVIER
SNOW ZONE BUT FEEL THAT WILL BE THE EXCEPTION.

PCPN SHUD PULL OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY LATE TNGT...WITH A LAKE RESPONSE
OVER FAR NRN ZONES ON SAT. ATTM...ONLY MINOR ACCUMS XPCTS THRU 00Z
SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WNW FLOW REGIME E-SE OF THE LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZATION AND MINOR STRENGTHENING OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM OSWEGO THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTIES
DURING THE EVENING. IF THIS WAS TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE BRIEF... AND
DRY AIR WILL OVERWHELM THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS ESE OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW HOURS... THEN DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT A COLD
DRY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET AND COLD... THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY TYPE OF SYSTEM WITH A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW FOLLOWED
BY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY KEEP WARM AIR FROM MOVING
IN AT LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE DAYTIME MONDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE
COLD AIR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY COLD WESTERLY FLOW
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. A
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WELL-
ORGANIZED AND ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS BUT A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WILL BE RATHER QUIET FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING SOUTHERN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME
AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KAVP
IS REPORTING RAIN, THEN MIXING WITH PL THROUGH 02Z AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW WITH IFR VSBYS AFTER THIS TIME. KBGM IS
PL MIXING WITH SN, THEN BECOMING ALL IFR SNOW AFTER 02Z. AT KELM,
NO PRECIP IS BEING REPORTED BUT ONLY EXPECT THIS TO LAST FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE STARTING OUT AS A MIX OF PL AND SN THEN
BECOMING IFR SNOW BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. FURTHER NORTH AT KITH,
EXPECT MVFR -SN AFTER 02Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR -SN BETWEEN 02Z
AND 06Z. KSYR AND KRME ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM,
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SEEING ANY RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP THOUGH
HAVE ALLOWED FOR IFR/MVFR -SN BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z.

AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT EXPECT JUST LINGERING
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS AT ALL SITES (SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING AT
TERMINALS). LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
KSYR AND KRME BEHIND SYSTEM.

WINDS WILL BE NW-N AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU TONIGHT. TERMINALS WILL SEE
GUSTY NW WINDS AFTER 15Z.


OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...SCT MVFR CNTRL NY....PRIMARILY SYR/RME.

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

TUE/WED...SCT MVFR MAINLY SYR/RME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ015-
     022>025-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BMW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...PVN