Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 280724
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and storms will develop later today and this
evening across the region. A better chance for widespread
precipitation...especially south...is expected late tonight and
through the day Friday. Dry conditions expected Saturday, with
another round of showers and storms Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 am update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the
potential for patchy valley fog this morning...and the next round
of showers and storms expected later this afternoon and into
tonight.

Quiet weather conditions this morning with weak high pressure in
place along with a dry air mass aloft. These conditions are
helping to keep skies mostly clear this morning. The addition of
light/calm surface winds and a relatively moist near- surface
layer will continue to allow favorable conditions for patchy
fog...especially in the valley locations this morning. Already
starting to see fog form in the upper Susquehanna valley this
morning. The spatial extent of the fog development later this
morning is still uncertain.

The weak high pressure in place will quickly shift to the east as
the next couple features move in...one from the north/nw and the
other from the sw. The system to the north in the form of an upper
trough will rotate w-e across the eastern Great Lakes into nrn New
England later today. This trough will interact with a relatively
unstable air mass to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly from the afternoon into the evening. Overall dynamics will be
weak-moderate with minimal deep layer shear and no real surface
feature to provide the forcing mechanism. ML CAPE values will
increase to around 500-1000 J/kg.

The secondary system will move in from the sw in the form of an
embedded upper s/w and a developing surface low from the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic region. A robust amt of deep moisture will get
entrained into this dynamic system as it evolves and eventually
becomes a fairly efficient rain producer. The track of the low from
srn PA into srn NJ and eventually off the New England coast appears
to be in fairly good agreement among the model guidance. An
intensifying deformation zone will develop on the nrn side of the
system as the baroclinicity strengthens. This will be the mostly
likely location of the heaviest rainfall...across ne PA and into far
sern NY and further to the east. An area of stratiform rain will
move in from the south/sw late tonight and continue into Friday.
There will likely be weak embedded thunderstorms as well. May see
up to a quarter of an inch tonight with locally higher amounts
from thunderstorms...and eventually more tomorrow.

Temperatures today will be warm once again with high humidity values
as well as dew points remain in the 60s. Highs are expected to top
out in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight will only fall into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A trof of low pressure along the eastern U.S. will increase the
chance for preciptation over our region on Friday, especially over
the southern forecast area. The NAM is not surprisingly the most
aggressive in pulling significant preciptation well into NY State,
while the other models are less intense. Still, it appears a
"likely" shower and thunderstorm forecast is prudent for the
southeastern FA, where the best slug of moisture riding up the
coast skirts our region.

High pressure builds in for Saturday before another short wave
swings out of the Ohio Valley overnight. The wave will set off
additional shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday night into
Sunday.

Temperatures will average above normal for this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. A weak upper level wave combined with surface low
pressure in the mid atlantic region will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday
night. Monday through Wednesday looks mainly dry as upper level
heights build and surface high pressure remains in the vicinity.

Temperatures will start at seasonal levels over the weekend then
warm back above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Still expecting generally VFR conditions tonight under mostly clear
skies. Have lower confidence in valley fog potential early this
morning at ELM but still maintaining a tempo grp for MVFR vsbys.
Early today will continue to see VFR conditions, however high
level clouds will begin to move in from the NW and SW through the
late morning and afternoon. May see scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms after 21Z with brief mvfr conditions possible
at any site that gets a brief shower. Confidence is slightly
higher in the overall potential for precipitation...so added
PROB30 grps to all terminals this late afternoon and evening.

Winds remain light/variable or calm this morning...increasing
from the southwest 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon and becoming
northwest later in the day before light and variable again
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night-Friday night...Scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...BJT


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