Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230236
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
936 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. SUNDAY WILL
BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
934 PM UPDATE...
DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY BASED ON CALLS TO LOCAL DOTS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE MESONET SITES ARE STILL CLOSE
TO FREEZING. DUE TO SUCH COLD WEATHER THE PAST WEEK I WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO STILL SEE SOME LIGHT ICING IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUR NORMALLY COLDER SECTIONS SUCH AS
SECONDARY ROADS, SIDEWALKS, AND SHADY SPOTS. SINCE THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, WE WILL COVER THAT WITH AN SPS. UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PLAIN RAIN HERE.


410 PM UPDATE...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LOCALES STILL HOLDING TUFF
ONTO FRZG TEMPS, NAMELY SUSQUEHANNA CNTY AND NRN WAYNE CNTY AS
ROADWAYS ARE SLIPPERY MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS ARE OCCURRING PER
PENNDOT. RMNDR OF SITES HV CLIMBED WELL ABV FRZG BUT COLD AIR
SEEMS TO BE LOCKED INTO THESE AREAS. STILL SEEING PATCHY DRIZZLE
IN THESE AREAS AS WV DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

215 PM UPDATE... WE`VE EXPANDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVSY TO INCLUDE A
NUMBER OF OUR FAR ERN ZNS (ALL OF ONEIDA...OTSEGO...DELAWARE...AND
SULLIVAN CNTYS).

PATCHY LGT PCPN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE RGN LATE THIS
AFTN...WITH PCPN LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PERSISTENT ACRS OUR NRN AND
ERN ZNS THIS EVE...AS ANOTHER S/WV ZIPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND
ENHANCES LIFT ASSOCD WITH WAA FORCING. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TEMPS
ALOFT WILL WARM AT A SUFFICIENT RATE TO PRECLUDE MOST PTYPS...OTHER
THAN PRIMARILY RAIN OR FRZG RAIN. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...LOW-
LVL COLD AIR WILL BE HARDEST TO DISLODGE IN THE SRN TUG HILL
RGN...OTSEGO CNTY...AND THE WRN CATSKILLS...HENCE THE ADVSY FOR
THIS RGN. WE STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL HOVER NEAR OR JUST BLO
THE FRZG MARK THIS EVE OVER SXNS OF THE POCONOS IN NE PA.
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL BE MUCH LGTR/MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE OVER THIS
AREA...SO THAT IS WHY NO ADVSYS HAVE BEEN POSTED. ACRS THE REST
OF THE FA...TEMPS WILL BE FAR ENUF ABV 32F...AND/OR PCPN WILL BE
LGT ENUF...SO AS TO PREVENT ANY REAL ISSUES WITH ICING.

-RA/-FZRA IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AFTER 06-09Z...AS THE ABV
MENTIONED S/WV LIFTS TO OFF OUR NE...AND WE`RE JUST LEFT WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW PATN...AND NO REAL TRIGGERING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN.

TEMPS WILL EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL TREND OVERNIGHT...RISING SLOWLY
WITH TIME. MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE CAPTURED THIS NICELY...AND
WE USED A BLEND OF OUR PREV FCST...AS WELL AS ADJLAV AND HI-RES
WRF VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM UPDATE... MUCH OF SUN STILL LOOKS PCPN-FREE FROM THIS
VANTAGE PT...AS CNY/NE PA RESIDE IN BETWEEN DISTURBANCES. DESPITE ONLY
LIMITED SUNSHINE (LINGERING MRNG CLDS...PLUS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AGN FROM THE S AND SW BY LATE AFTN)...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S-LWR 50S.

SUN NGT LOOKS WET...AS THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRNTL BNDRYS LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE RGN...ASSOCD WITH A DEEPENING CYCLONE MOVG UP INTO THE
NRN LKS RGN. THUS...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY-CAT RANGES.

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHWRS CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WE`LL PROBABLY HAVE A RELATIVE
LULL AGN FOR MOST OF MON...WITH CNY/NE PA SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR
TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...READINGS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD PTN OF THE AREA MON AFTN.

AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRNT TIED TO THE ABV MENTIONED SFC CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA MON EVE...WITH AT LEAST SCTD
SHWRS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. SOME OF OUR MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE DVLPMT OF MARGINAL INSTAB LATE MON (SB CAPES
OF 300-600 J/KG...SPCLY OVER NE PA). IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...THIS SITN WOULD HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A
PSBL COOL SEASON LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR TYPE OF EVENT...GIVEN THE
PROGGED 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES. AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...WE DO NOT YET HAVE ANY THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.

LTR MON NGT AND TUE...A CAA REGIME WILL BE WITH US AGN...ON A WSWLY
FLOW PATN. SINCE THIS TRAJ IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR OUR CWA...AND ALSO
THE INCOMING AMS IS NOT THAT COLD INITIALLY...LES IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL OR NONE AT ALL THROUGH TUE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...BLYR
TEMPS ONLY APPEAR TO SUPPORT A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX ON TUE...WITH TEMPS
STILL IN THE 30S OR LWR 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD WITH MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
LAKE SNOW BANDS.

SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TRACKS STILL
ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SERN ZONES.

NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL REINFORCE POLAR AIR
AND MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN FA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM NORTHEASTERN
ONONDAGA INTO NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA.

MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SERN STATES FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS THROUGH
10Z THIS MORNING. THE FIRST TWO HOURS MAY FEATURE -FZRA AT RME.
CIGS WILL RISE TO VFR AT NY TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING AND AT AVP
AFTER 06Z.

LLWS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A 240 DEGREE FLOW
BETWEEN 40-45 KTS AT 2000 FEET. EXPECT LLWS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AT AVP BY 06Z AND AT REMAINING TERMINALS BY 10Z.

WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST 8-12KTS WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
NEXT 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT THROUGH MON NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN/POSSIBLE FOG.

TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY VFR...BUT COASTAL SYSTEM MAY SKIM KAVP
WITH -SN WED NGT/THUR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ/PVF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...PVF






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