Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
630 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible,
especially over northern Pennsylvania and southern New York. Drier
and more comfortable weather will build across our area tonight
through Wednesday. Highs will be around 80 through mid week with
overnight lows in the 50s.


450 AM Update...

We remain on the northwest extent of steadier rain this morning.
Pockets of intense rainfall over the Finger Lakes and parts of
Central NY late yesterday from thunderstorms has subsided. The
more steady rain moving up the coast has been heaviest just south
and east of our area, with rainfall amounts averaging around a few
tenths in NEPA but closing in on one inch over southern Pike. This
area of rain will continue to move east with light rain ending
from west to east this morning.

Later today a cold front will move through, bringing another round
of showers and thunderstorms to the area.  Higher resolution
model guidance suggest an initiation along the cold front around
18Z between Elmira and Binghamton, with the line moving into
Northeast PA and the Catskills between 18Z and 0Z. The NMM and ARW
are farther west and more discrete with the line, while the HRRR
is not quite as pronounced or as far west. Based on some
uncertainity with where the initiation occurs, I painted a broad
area of 30% to 40% for rainfall chances from roughly Towanda to
Binghamton to Norwich south and east.

SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather from the
Catskills westward toward the Binghamton area. The marginal risk
area is on a line roughly from Towanda to Cortland to Utica, and
points south and east. MLCAPE values are very minimal or roughly
300 - 500 J/KG. Inverted V soundings and some dry air in the mid
levels would support some gusty winds (main threat highlighted by
SPC) but model winds are 30 KTS or less up through 20,000 feet.
With the minimal cape and weak wind fields, see a minimal risk
for true severe wind, with the more likely outcome thunderstorms
with gusty winds at best (30 mph). Any convection dies down this
evening. Given the marginal risk area by SPC I did add this
wording to the HWO for mention of gusty winds.


500 AM Update...

Quiet, cooler, and more comfortable. High pressure building out of
the Ohio Valley keeps is the main weather feature during this
period. Daytime highs will be around 80 with lows on the cool side
or in the 50s. A nice break for the ACs which got an early season


3 pm Update...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region
Wednesday through Thursday...with quiet weather and highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight lows remain steady into the
weekend as the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A fast-moving cold front will track from the eastern Great Lakes
into New England Thursday night through Friday night...producing
another round of showers and storms. A slightly cooler and drier
air mass will move in behind this front late Saturday and Sunday
with highs back into the 70s and lows in the 50s.


Today...Generally VFR. Fog creating below airport minimums at
KELM for first 1-2 hours before dissipating. Winds becoming S-SW
5-10 knots this morning, then W-NW 10G15 knots this afternoon.
Scattered TSRA possible this afternoon which could affect mainly
KBGM-KAVP from 17Z-23Z. Confidence better at KAVP and timing is
outside the first nine hour PROB30 forecast restriction so have
mentioned in TAF. Confidence of occurrence at KBGM not high enough
for TEMPO at this time, and is therefore not explicitly in forecast,
but pilots should monitor TSRA development across CNY closely

Tonight...VFR with areas of late night MVFR fog at KELM, and
possibly KAVP. Winds remaining light NW, or becoming
light/variable at favored locations.


Tuesday-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog is
possible during the late night and early morning hours each day.

Thurs & Fri...Restrictions possible with showers and




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