Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 041745
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

EXPECT SLOW CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DENSE FOG WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT BUT SKIES
WILL CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PCPN CONTS TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM BUT WITH PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE UNDER AN UPR TROF...SKIES CONT TO BE SLOW TO CLR...ESP
OVER THE HISS OF THE SRN TIER AND NEPA WHERE ANOTHER GOOD SOAKING
WENT THRU. A FEW LGT RETUNS ON THE RADAR TO THE WEST AND THE MESO
SCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ISLTD SHWRS SO WILL PRBLY KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN BUT PRBLY REMOVE CHANCE OF TRW SINCE THERE/S NOT
ALL THAT MUCH INSTABILITY.

DENSE FOG SEEMS LIKELY TNGT AS THE FOG CLRS AND THERE/S AN
ABUNDANCE OF LL MOISTURE LEFT BY THE MRNG RAIN. LGT WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LACK OF MIXING.

SUNDAY LIVING UP TO IT/S NAME WITH MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA.
AFTN HIGHS INTO THE LWR 80S A GOOD BET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

RAIN HAS MVD OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT PLENTY LL MOISTURE WILL
ALOWL MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR A CPL HRS...ESP OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTH. OVRNGT...SKIES CLR BUT DENSE VLY FOG LIKELY WITH THE WET
GND AND LGT WINDS. VFR ONDS RETURN AFT 12Z WITH SUNSHINE AND MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ALL FOG SHD BE GONE BY ARND
14Z. LOOSE GRADIENT CONTS SO WINDS REMAIN LGT THRU THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT...MON...EARLY TUE...OTR THAN EARLY MRNG FOG...VFR.

LATE TUE AND WED...MVFR AND ISLTD IFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN RW AND
TRW.

THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...DGM


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