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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271522
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1022 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE OUTER EDGES OF A STRONG NOR EASTER WILL SKIM THE POCONOS TO
CATSKILLS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW...AND
BLOWING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE...WITH MINOR FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOME
HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WEATHER WILL BE
COLD AND QUIET TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A PASSING SYSTEM
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
RE-WORKED POPS FOR THIS MRNG. SKIES HV BCM PCLDY ACRS CNTRL SXNS
OF CWA AS OF 15Z AS AREA RMNS IN BTWN MOISTURE FM NOREASTER TO THE
EAST AND WV DROPPING DOWN THRU WRN NY. EXPECT NVA TO WORK WEST
ALLOWING SUN TO COME OUT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-81 AT SOME POINT
TODAY.

AREA OF SNOW HAS MADE IT INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS MRNG WITH
SOME ECHOES NOW SHOWING UP IN ERN ZONES. EXPECT THIS SNOW WL BE
HIT-AND MISS AS LOW STARTS TO PULL NORTH THUS HV DROPPED
ADVISORIES FM OTSEGO DOWN WAYNE CNTY IN COLLABORATION WITH ALY.
ADDN`L SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO BE FM 1-3 INCHES AND CERTAINLY NOT ENUF
TO WARRANT KEEPING HEADLINES GOING AT THIS TIME. IN FACT AREAS
WEST OF I-81 CAN EXPECT TO SEE JUST FLURRIES AND/OR BRIEF SNOW
SHOWER THRU THE DAY.

TEMPS WL NOT CLIMB MUCH THRU THE DAY TDA AS NRLY FLOW CONTS TO
DRAW IN CLDR AIR. MAX TEMPS WL RMN IN THE TEENS FOR MAJORITY OF
AREA THO MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO THE 20S OVR SRN SXNS.

PREV DISCUSSIONS BLO...

750 AM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACRS SERN ZONES AND SPREAD THEM BACK
INTO CATSKILLS/MOHAWK VLY AFT 16Z THIS MRNG AS LOW WOBBLES PER ALL
HIRES/MED RANGE MODELS. HV DROPPED ADDN/L SNOW ACCUMS OVR ERN
ZONES AS STEADY SNOW HAS HIT A WALL. WL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT ITS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LKLY THAT WE
WL ONLY SEE AN ADDN`L 1-3 OVR CNTYS IN THE ADVISORY. WL RE-
EVALUATE HEADLINES LTR THIS MRNG.

330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING ALL THE WAY UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS AGO
TO CUT OFF...THE SURFACE LOW OF THE NOR EASTER IS PRETTY FAR
OFFSHORE /SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD/ AND THUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER...OUTER EDGES OF STORM WILL
STILL MANAGE TO SKIM THE POCONOS TO SOUTHERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BACKING INTO OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER UP THE COAST. WITH THE LARGE SCALE OF THE
STORM...A RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN THE BIG PICTURE HAS MEANT
LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY...AS
IS THE CASE FOR US. MEANWHILE AREAS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
STORM ARE STILL GETTING PUMMELED REGARDLESS OF THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN
TRACK...AS IS THE CASE FOR LONG ISLAND TO BOSTON.

AS WRITING ON THE WALL BECAME APPARENT...WINTER STORM WARNING WAS
DROPPED EARLIER FOR PIKE-SULLIVAN...WHICH NOW INSTEAD JOINS THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAYNE-OTSEGO-DELAWARE COUNTIES.
FIGURING ON 2 TO 5 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TODAY IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...HIGHEST OF COURSE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTSEGO-
DELAWARE- SULLIVAN-PIKE COUNTY. WE MAY END UP BEING ABLE TO DROP
WAYNE EARLY. THE HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO OF THIS FLUFFY SNOW
WILL MEAN IT WILL ALSO BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING-DRIFTING AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT FROM NNE TO NW TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 MPH. FINALLY...SEPARATE FROM THE MAIN
STORM...ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN
DEFORMATION BAND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION...IS FINALLY DRYING
UP WITH VISIBILITY IN THE 4-6 MILE RANGE. THUS I CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF
7 AM.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE OUTER RIM OF SNOW
BACKING INTO THE CATSKILLS...WE ARE FIGURING THAT UPSLOPE FLOW
AGAINST THE TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY INCLUDING NORTHERN
CORTLAND- CHENANGO COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA-
MADISON- ONEIDA COUNTIES...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ANOTHER 1 TO 3
INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION. THAT ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING-
DRIFTING WILL CAUSE SNOW COVERED ROADS TO STILL BE AN ISSUE.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S...AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME LOCATIONS OCCASIONALLY SLIGHTLY SUBZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
LINGERING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY IN CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...YET STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO SEND
WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.

QUIET AND COLD WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...YET ALSO
QUICK RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY DAWN THURSDAY...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS EVEN GET
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH IN A
MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONGEST THU
AFTN INTO FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVES SE THROUGH
UPSTATE NY THEN BOMBS ON NEW ENGLAND COAST. VIGOROUS DIGGING SHORT
WAVE ALOFT. WWD HAS A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE CWA WHICH
COULD BE MORE. THE TROUGH SLOWS THEN CLOSES OFF WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. ENOUGH WAA SO THAT A LARGE DENDRITE ZONE SETS UP IN THE TOP
THIRD OF THE SATURATED MOISTURE LAYER. ALSO DEEP LIFT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LAYER.  HAVE NOW INCLUDED THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY TO TUESDAY CHANGED LITTLE. AGAIN FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN SATURDAY PM TO SHUT THE LES MACHINE DOWN. HIGH MOVES OFF
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW MOVING NE UP THE EAST COAST.
MORE SNOW EXPECTED SUN NGT TO MON. ANOTHER ONE TO WATCH WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS AGAIN IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THIS FOLLOWED
BY LES MON NGT ENDING TUE.

TEMPERATURES MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR
WE ALREADY HAVE. SNOW COVER WILL ONLY HELP KEEP IT COLD WITH
SEVERAL NIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO.

220 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BHND DEPARTING NOR`EASTER WITH CLDS
CLRNG DRG THE MRNG FM WEST TO EAST. H8 TEMPS WARM TO NR -10C
YIELDING HIGHS IN THE L/M 20S. S/WV RIDGING WORKS IN ALOFT WED NGT
WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT BFR CLOUDING UP FM THE WEST
BY 12Z. DRY WX EXPECTED TO HOLD THRU THUR MRNG.

WARM ADVECTION WL OVRSPRD WRN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A LO
CHC OF LGT SNOW TO FINGER LKS AREA. UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWINGS THRU THURSDAY NGT AND WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THIS
SOLN HV OPTED TO GO LKLY POPS FOR SNOW BTWN 00Z AND 12Z FRIDAY. NW
FLOW WL CONTINUE BHND SYSTEM LEADING TO ANOTHER CHC FOR LK EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THRU FRI NGT UNTIL NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN.

BASICALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE THRU THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH
HIPRES RESULTING IN DRY WX THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. NEXT
CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR TO MV IN ON SUNDAY.

MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH CLD CANADIAN
AIR FILTERING IN AS 12Z GFS HAS LOPRES OVR TOP OF CWA AS OPPOSED
TO EC INDICATING NRLY FLOW WITH HIPRES. THUS HV GONE WITH WPC
NUMBERS FOR LOWS NEXT MON MRNG WITH LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

PATCHY SNOW OVER NE PA IS CAUSING THE VSBY AT AVP TO DROP TO IFR.
THIS COULD CONTINUE TIL 14Z.

THE MAIN SHIELD OF SNOW OVER SE NY IS EXPECTED TO GET TO KRME THIS
AFTN  WITH WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. POSSIBLE IFR
VSBYS 19 TO 23Z BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY. ALSO WITH THE NW FLOW
SYR ITH BGM SHOULD FALL TO MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

ELM AND AVP AFTER 16Z VFR WITH ONLY FLURRIES.

NW TO N WINDS AT 8 KTS INCREASING TO 10 WITH GUSTS TO 20 LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY EVE. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS LATE EVENING OUT OF
THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

WED NGT AND THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ048.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP/PVF
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...PVF/TAC
AVIATION...TAC