National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBGM 140820
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
420 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL MODERATE INTO THE FORTIES TODAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, AND A FEW RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

I CONTINUED THE DRIER TREND TODAY AND YANKED THE SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE
POPS WE HAD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARMER
AIR WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 OVER THE FINGER LAKES. WHILE NOT AS WINDY
AS YESTERDAY, WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH WILL TEMPER THE WARMTH A BIT.
IN ADDITION AREAS EAST OF I-81, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, MAY STILL HOLD IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE ARE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PLAIN RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA, SOME WET SNOW WILL MIX IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SNOW NOT
MAKING IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR/LAKE PLAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMS WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO WARM
UNTIL VERY LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A FEW WET SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH AT ALL. WEAK
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK A BIT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
FELT LAST IN NEPA WHERE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, HELPING US TO DRY OUT COMPLETELY. WHILE THE CORE OF THE
TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH, A PIECE OF IT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. 850 TEMPS DROP
INTO THE -12C TO -17C RANGE, PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S. MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 0Z
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/EURO ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE MSLP OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST US. MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS OUR HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC VERY STRONG AND THIS
SUPPRESSES THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACK OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. DESPITE THE SURFACE LOW TRACK BEING SIMILAR, THE MODEL QPF
FIELDS ARE TRENDING NORTH WITH THE 0Z RUNS. MOST AGGRESSIVE IS THE
NAM, BRINGING .50" OF LIQUID TO NEPA BY 12Z MONDAY. OUR POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH CHANCE POPS UP TO OR NEAR THE NY/PA LINE. I DID INCREASE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT IN NEPA TO A FEW INCHES. HARD TO GET TOO
EXCITED JUST YET UNLESS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS SOONER, AND TRACKS
CLOSER TO AND UP THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM THIS
NEXT STORM WILL INCREASE AS YOU HEAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH OUR AREA, AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
215 PM THU UPDATE...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS COURTESY OF UPPER LOW
GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT OF THE NEW ENGLAND-QUEBEC REGION...THEN
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS BY MIDWEEK BUT UNCERTAIN ON HOW
MUCH. THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING CAN OCCUR
BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINA
/MID-ATLANTIC COAST REGION MONDAY...AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH APPEARS EVENTUALLY HEADED
FOR OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT BEFORE THAT WE MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF AT LEAST NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM CAROLINA/MIDATLANTIC SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY
SKIM PARTS OF NEPA AND CATSKILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT IMPACTS
WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND PRETTY LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS
TIME...THUS I AGREED WITH THE ONLY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AS PER
WPC. SURFACE HIGH...OR AT LEAST RIDGE...WILL PASS OVER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. THINGS A LITTLE TRICKIER WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND AGAIN I
SIDED WITH WPC...WITH CHANCE RANGE POPS AND UNCERTAIN PRECIP TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WAA ALOFT WILL DVLP JUST SOME MID LVL CLDS TNGT AND EARLY FRI SO
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD. XCPTN IS AT RME WHERE SOME
LAKE SC BRINGING MVFR CONDS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HRS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 40S. GRADIENT WILL
SUPORT SLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

EARLY SAT TO SUN...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN MIXED PRECIP SAT...AND
POSSIBLE FLURRIES SUNDAY...DUE TO MULTIPLE SMALL CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

SUN NGT/MON...MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE KAVP AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES MID-ATLANTIC STATES...IMPACTS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
3 PM UPDATE...

SYR PRECIP FOR 3/12 RESET TO MISSING. PROBLEMS WITH GAUGE DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.

ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT BGM FOR MAR 13. SYR AND AVP LOWS WERE NOT
COLD ENOUGH. ALL 3 SITES SET THEIR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPS FOR TDA.

COLDEST HIGHS FOR MARCH 13TH BEFORE TODAY
AVOCA PA 24 1926
SYRACUSE 18 1926
BINGHAMTON 20 1993

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/MDP
CLIMATE...