Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 290327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
927 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...
Latest Update:

Pops and sky were adjusted to reflect observations and near term
trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains in good
standing. Maliawco

Previous Discussion...

Synopsis: The main upper low spinning over Alberta is sending a
weak weather disturbance across the forecast area that is pushing
into far eastern Montana late this afternoon and early evening
with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing from Scobey
south through Crow Rock on our south at 250 pm. Activity overnight
is expected to quiet down. Then by Thursday another chance for
showers and even thunderstorms as another shortwave and surface
cold front moves across eastern Montana. Along with the trough and
cold frontal passage Thursday expected strong and gusty NW winds
producing another Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake from late
Thursday morning through early Thursday evening.

Temperatures will also dip about 10 degrees Thursday with the
trof and cold frontal passage. TC

.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...
Update: Main updates to the long term was in the Friday Saturday
time period was to remove chance of precipitation and lower RH`S a
couple of percent. The main change was due to the High pressure
ridge aloft building in slightly faster. TC

Previous Discussion: The extended forecast period begins Thursday
night with a northwest flow pattern aloft and an upper level
trough moving through the region. This is expected to bring at
least a chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of
northeast Montana. Temperatures associated with this should be a
few degrees below normal before the trough moves to the south and
east by Friday afternoon. Models vary some on precipitation
amounts, but wetting rains from this system do not seem too likely
at this point.

Temperatures will begin to warm as a ridge briefly passes through
Saturday, but a shortwave disturbance quickly moves through
Saturday night and into Sunday, bringing a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms during this period.

A ridge is expected to develop over the region Monday, returning
warmer temperatures to northeast Montana. Beyond this, models
suggest that another upper level low moving across Canada will
bring a cold front through around middle to late next week, but
enough uncertainty exists that not much more can be said about
that at this point.



Synopsis: A subtle short-wave trough, sufficient moisture and
instability continue to fuel a line of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon that is forecast to push east into the Dakota
between 03z-06z. Overnight activity is forecast to die down, then
another trough and cold front will bring increase chances of
showers and thunderstorms by late Thursday morning through the
Flight Conditions: Mainly VFR, but some VCTS could easily bring
brief MVFR conditions to the TAF sites if a stronger storm happens
to pass directly over head for taf sites, mainly for sites in far
eastern MT this evening. SCT TSRA expect across most of NE MT

Winds: Generally around 10 to 15 kts with gusts near 25 kts this
evening with more erratic and gusty winds near the stronger
storms as they pass through the area this evening. The shortwave
trough and cold front passing through the area Thursday will kick
up NW winds 15-20 kts with gust near 30 kts.



Lake Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday For Fort Peck
Lake for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern


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