Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 281531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
931 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sun...

radar echoes over the SW zones are dwindling with a mix of clouds
and sun elsewhere. Next push of increasing clouds will come across
mainly Phillips County with cumulus buildups and scattered to
isolated showers. Going forecast has all covered well but did
lower morning pops a bit. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Slowly warming temperatures expected through the weekend as the
upper trof that has lingered over the Rockies shifts east and
Pacific ridge edges toward the California coast. The two
circulations in the trof will be slow to move east and the effect
of the Pacific ridge will be tempered by another shortwave moving
through the Canadian Rockies.

Low over Alberta will be the first to move east, shifting into
Saskatchewan late today, then weakening as it moves to Manitoba on
Saturday. Weak front associated with this low could pull showers
across the northern zones tonight but overall dry conditions
should limit qpf.

Southern stream low developing in the desert southwest expected to
lift into the plains. As it develops it should pull moisture
southward, generally ending the showers across southern Montana.
Shortwave energy moving through the northern Rockies and residual
moisture in central Montana could result in some afternoon
instability showers over the mountains for Saturday and Sunday
afternoon. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...

The extended period begins Sunday evening with the EC and the GFS
agreeing with a split trough arrangement. The southern wave will
be a strong stacked system over eastern Nebraska and Kansas. The
northern wave will be a short-wave dropping out of Canada through
Northeast Montana. This wave will not find much moisture, but with
pushing a cold front through the area, there could be isolated
early evening thunder with the rain showers. A more subtle wave
follows in the wake of the first wave on Monday. Precipitation
will continue along the frontal boundary through Tuesday.

Then a large high off the coast of California anchors a long-wave
ridge over the West. This ridge will increase heights and
temperatures through Thursday, and possibly Friday. But models
quickly become out of phase for the weekend. The GFS brings in a
cold front and storm system that could be very energetic and wet.
The EC hangs onto the ridge longer.





Northeast Montana will be located between a split upper-level
trough. With no nearby frontal boundaries, expect scattered low-
to-mid level clouds with possibly a few light showers about this

Winds: Light and variable today and tonight.





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