Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 242317
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
717 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFFSHORE...BRINGING
INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL WARMTH FOR LATE MAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MID TO
LATE WEEK...AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A POSTCARD-LIKE MEMORIAL SUNDAY WILL SETTLE INTO FAIR AND MILD
EVENING AS SKIES TREND TOWARD CLEARING. A DWINDLING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION INTO DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL
QUICKER OVER THE INTERIOR IN CONTRAST TO THE COAST...AND MINIMUMS
BY DAYBREAK WILL SHOW A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH LOWER 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 CLOSER TO THE SEA DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE
ONSHORE PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MARITIME AIR COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES
MAY LEAD TO POCKETS AND PATCHES OF FOG AND MIST...FAVORED INLAND
WHERE MORE TRANQUIL WINDS RESIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND STRONG RIDGING REMAIN OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO
PREVAIL. STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY DECENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ILLUSTRATED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...WILL SEE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH FEW/SCT DIURNAL CU WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON TUESDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. IF RIDGE WEAKENS SOONER THAN
ANTICIPATED BY LATEST GUIDANCE...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG
THE COAST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY
CONSISTENT IN THE MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH SUBTLE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTION IN BRINGING VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES/SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS INTO
THE AREA THAT ALLOW AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP.
THE ECMWF REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE TWO. TO STRIKE THE BALANCE I
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY CONFINED TO
INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND FROM NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...THUS WILL GO
WITH A PERSISTENT TYPE FORECAST. E-SE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
KFLO/KLBT AND KILM AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME GENERALLY SE...OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. THE PERSISTENT SE WIND FLOW
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A BIT
MORE CLOUDS AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER LEVEL EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THAN TODAY.

CONCERNING FOG POTENTIAL IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEAR SKIES AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALL SUGGEST AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KFLO/KLBT AND KILM WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
BUT THERE IS A LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 4K THAT COULD REDUCE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AS WELL AS 10-15 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
WILL LEAVE TEMPO MVFR IN TAFS ATTM BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM SUNDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC WHOSE
AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW ESE-SE
WINDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET INSHORE AND 4
FEET CLOSER TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS OUTER WATERS. SEAS A
COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD SE CHOP AND ESE WAVES EVERY 6 SECONDS.
NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL SETTLE TO 10-15 KT AFTER THE SEA BREEZE WEAKENS BY MID-
EVENING.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND BACK TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WATERS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AS TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT LINGERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WITH A MIXTURE OF
WIND DRIVEN WAVES AND A DECENT GROUND SWELL...EXPECT SEAS TO
REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURE DRIVING THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
WEEK. EXPECT A SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS NEARSHORE VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FEET WITH THE FOUR FOOTERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE OUTER WATERS AND
ONLY ON OCCASION.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/SHK/SGL



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