Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 020645
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
245 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER INLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...AN AMORPHOUS AND ILL-DEFINED PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN WE WILL SEE A WEAK PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE SET UP OF A
MODEST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL LEAD TO SUMMER-
LIKE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S MOST PLACES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING
COLUMN...THE MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY...LIMITING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY TO ISOLATED SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH RELATED CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CHANCES AGAIN FOR CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD FAR NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES DURING THURSDAY. AS THE H5 RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THE TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER
OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED INLAND TROUGH WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS
DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS LACKING IN THE SHORT TERM. A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM
IS ALSO LACKING AS WELL THUS PRIMARILY KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30% RANGE
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ONLY A WEAK INLAND TROUGH TO
WORK WITH SOME INSTABILITY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO OCCUR THURSDAY (LOWER 90S
COASTAL AREAS TO THE MID 90S FARTHER INLAND).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER
POSSIBLE DURING THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LOW MAY EVOLVE AND SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
OR WHEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR INCREASING POPS BY SUNDAY. THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO CREATE MVFR LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT TEMPO MVFR IN GOING FORECAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT VFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AOB
10 KTS. WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA. INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BRIEF MORNING FOG AND
ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 KT OR
LESS RANGE...WITH SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT...THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
EXCEPTION TO THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS. WINDS NEAR SHORE
AT THAT TIME MAY BE HIGHER...IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...AND GUSTY.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING SATURDAY AS
NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. SEAS 3-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CAPE FEAR WATERS BY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY WITH
SEAS 3-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...JDW/SRP
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/SRP



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