Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281912
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
312 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm late summer conditions will prevail through mid week with
tropical moisture providing showers and a few thunderstorms. A
strong cold front is expected to move across the Carolinas later
in the week drying things out a bit.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is located well to
the southeast of the forecast area, over the waters of the Atlantic
this afternoon. TD Eight is projected to move slowly WNW through the
near term, maintaining its identity as a Tropical Depression. Based
on its distance from the forecast area and projected path and
strength there will be no near term impacts to our area other than
possible heightened rip current risks along the coast.

A very moist tropical airmass is preceding TD 8, with P/W values up
around 2 inches. Combined with diurnal heating and a marginally
unstable airmass we can expect isolated to scattered showers with
the occasional thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Activity
will move from NE to SW and is for now confined to the coastal
counties. However, more activity should spread inland later this
afternoon as the column further moistens to the west. Expect a
decrease in convection as we lose daytime heating, but isolated to
widely scattered showers can occur overnight given the elevated
levels of moisture.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is projected to move
WNW towards the Outer Banks of NC on Monday while strengthening to
tropical storm status, making its closest approach to land on
Tuesday morning before recurving back to the NE on Tuesday
afternoon. Based on the projected track and development of this
system, impacts over land for our forecast area are expected to be
minimal with no watches, warnings or advisories expected. However,
there may be a heightened rip current risk along the coast. A moist
airmass and diurnal heating will encourage scattered convection on
both days, with highest chances along the coast. Dry air inland will
keep POPs and QPF in check for our northwestern-most counties.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of seasonal norms through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A weak mid level pattern initially will give
way to mid level troughing by the weekend. This trough will allow
a cold front to move across late Thursday and take up residence to
our south. The latest guidance has shifted the front a little more
southward as well as the very dry mid level air. Not enough of a
change to warrant any changes to the forecast for the weekend
which include good chance pops across the south decreasing as you
move north. Wildcard remains what happens to AL99. There is at
least some hint of consensus (all of a couple of medium range
cycles) that the system forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves
along the southeast coast possibly affecting our area Sunday and
Monday. Seems the best option is to maintain slight chance pops
which are basically climatology and wait it out. Warm temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday cooling slightly behind the front but lows
in the 60s may be difficult citing the lingering moisture.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 18Z...High pressure along the coast and recently formed
tropical depression #8 offshore will combine to persist moist NE
winds through the valid period. This will create VFR to at times
MVFR cigs, especially near the coast, along with showers and
isolated tstms. The inland terminals may see a few showers today,
but it is drier further west and have opted to leave out any mention
of MVFR or showers at FLO/LBT through tonight. The strongest winds
will be near the coast as well, but NE winds around 10 kts are
expected at all TAF sites.

Tonight, showers/tstms will decrease in coverage but may continue to
develop offshore and move towards the coast. Have not included this
in TAF for uncertainty and it will need to be monitored. More
stratus is possible again tonight, but not expected to be as
widespread as last night due to less cool advection behind the
dissipated boundary. Some fog is also possible, favored inland,
through daybreak before a similar day develops after daybreak on
Monday with NE winds around 10 kts and MVFR/VFR cigs/showers.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Increasing chance of TEMPO sub VFR each day as
tropical moisture/shower potential increases through Tuesday. VFR
Wed/Thu. Shower potential increases again beginning Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is located well
to the southeast of the waters this afternoon. TD Eight is
projected to move slowly WNW through the near term, maintaining
its identity as a Tropical Depression. Based on its distance from
the forecast area and projected path and strength there will be no
near term impacts over the waters for maritime interests. High
pressure to the north in combination with TD 8 will maintain a
relatively light NE wind at 10 to 15 kts through the near term,
with seas of 2 to 4 ft.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Tropical Depression Eight is projected to
move WNW towards the Outer Banks of NC on Monday while
strengthening to tropical storm status, making its closest
approach to land on Tuesday morning before recurving back to the
NE on Tuesday afternoon. Based on the projected track and
development of this system, impacts over the coastal waters are
expected to be minimal with no advisories expected. Winds will
generally remain in the 10 to 15 kt range through the period,
backing from the NE on Monday to N on Tuesday. Seas north of Cape
Fear in closest vicinity to the storm may peak at 3 to 5 ft Monday
night and early Tuesday before subsiding back to around 3 ft on
Tuesday night. Seas further south of Cape Fear will be lower.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...A very weak pressure pattern will prevail
Wednesday into early Thursday leaving the sea breeze as the main
driver of winds. With warmer overnight lows the land breeze
shouldn`t be a factor. By Thursday afternoon a better defined
southwest flow ahead of a decent front develops. Speeds here should
be 10-15 knots. Northeast winds will develop Friday and pick up
a little on the intensity. Overall seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW
MARINE...REK/SHK


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