Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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264
FXUS62 KILM 041949
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
349 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED GUSTY
SHOWERS. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CAROLINAS WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WAS OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND ALIGNED JUST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AS SHALLOW MOISTURE COMBINES WITH FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AS COOL AIR POURS IN ALOFT. HAVE INCLUDED ISO
SHWRS IN PORTIONS OF NC ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF FRONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR WAS LOCATED. DEWPOINT TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40S INLAND AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AS DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE
W-SW.

WATER VAP IMAGERY SHOWS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CENTER REACHING THE
CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK. THIS DEEP COLD CORE CUT OFF LOW WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND CHC OF SHOWERS AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA BY DAYBREAK EVEN THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF
DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S INTO DAYBREAK AS COOLER AIR
MAKES ITS WAY INTO AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A POTENT COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL DROP
INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING AND COLD AND DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND THIS DEEP LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TO BE SHALLOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT WILL
CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT AS TOO HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE BOTH THURS AND FRI BUT AS THIS LOW DIGS
SOUTH THERE WILL BE STRONG COOLING ALOFT PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EXPECT ANY MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND BUT COULD BE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER. KEPT MENTION OF HAIL FOR THURS AFTN AS
COLD POOL ALOFT WILL LOWER FREEZING HEIGHTS AND WBZ TEMPS TO 5 TO
6K FT. OVERALL EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN
WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE AND SOME GUSTY PASSING SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 70 MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 50 WITH SPOTS BELOW 50.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AS THE COLD LOW LIFTS
NORTH AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE EAST COAST
WILL FINALLY GET KICKED OUT TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL DRAG A VERY WEAK COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND
WASH OUT TO OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE UP FROM THE
GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PATTERN DEVELOPS
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND RIDGING DEVELOPS
ALOFT...EXPANDING THROUGH MID-WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING WITH THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS MORE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION BECOMES POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SILENT
POP THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER AS FORCING LOOKS LIMITED EACH DAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL...SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...BEFORE
WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR HAS BUILT EASTWARD ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY...HOWEVER A THIN RIBBON OF
BETTER MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AROUND WILMINGTON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE ILM AIRPORT. LESSER
CHANCES EXIST OF A POP-UP SHOWER NEAR THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IN
THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY. FARTHER INLAND ALTHOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY
OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THEY ARE LIMITED IN DEPTH AND POSE NO POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

ASIDE FROM MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE 6000-9000 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIN RESIDUAL SURFACE
MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST COULD PRODUCE SHALLOW FOG PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE WILMINGTON (ILM) AND NORTH MYRTLE BEACH (CRE) AIRPORTS.
COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY ON WNW WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THURSDAY

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE JUST NEARING THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW ACROSS THE WATERS UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER OFF SHORE. MAY SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KT AND A FEW 5 FTERS IN EXTREME OUTER WATERS BUT
OVERALL SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT MOST WATERS.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY STRONG W-NW OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP LOW DROPS OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND THEN LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
THE OFF SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST SEAS OFF
SHORE WITH SOME 4 TO 5 FTERS THROUGH THURS INTO EARLY FRI. GUSTS
TO 25 KT MAY RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DURING PORTIONS OF
THIS PERIOD EVEN THOUGH SEAS NEAR SHORE WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK
FROM NW EARLY SAT TO SW BY SUNDAY MORNING...AT 10-15 KTS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ON SUNDAY...AND LIKELY STALL AND
DISSIPATE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...A SUBTLE VEERING IN DIRECTION TO WEST IS
FORECAST ALONG WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS...BEFORE SW WINDS REDEVELOP ON
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT SAT/SUN WITH A 2 FT 8-9 SEC SE WAVE
AND 3 FT 4 SEC VEERING WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. MORE
UNIFORM SEAS AROUND 3 FT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS.&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA



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