Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 252343
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
643 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers tonight into Monday as well as a
trend away from record breaking warmth. Temperatures will surge
again ahead of a cold front Thursday, the boundary due Thursday
night. Behind this weather next weekend will be seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Another record breaking day going down in
the books for both FLO and ILM. An 88 year old record maximum
temperature broken at ILM this afternoon by reaching 82 deg. FLO
had no problem demolishing the 79 degrees set last year,
currently at 83 and climbing. The ocean cooled air at the
Myrtles is making it difficult for CRE to reach record values
this afternoon.

The pre-frontal trough crossing I-95, will merge with the sea-
breeze convergence line from 4pm-6pm, off the coast by very
early evening. Low-level winds of 20-30 kt, and a strong cap of
dry air aloft, will prevent hazardous weather this afternoon
and tonight, but gusts in stronger showers to 35 mph cannot be
ruled out entirely. Cool water and diurnal cooling will kill
this line quickly off the coast after 6 pm.

This may leave a quiet overnight period, with little forcing,
until weak upper support arrives into daybreak, and the onset of
low-level over-running gears up. The front should already be
through SE NC and NE SC by daybreak Monday, and maximums Monday,
holding below 70 in most if not all locations through the day.
Isentropic lift strengthens on Monday, co-joined with elevated
PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches, so expecting a good little
soaking Monday. Yes there may be periods of non-rain Monday, but
latest QPF best-fit line, gives us about 1/3 inch average
across NE SC and SE NC, most of it Monday, a little more Monday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Cold front to the southeast will be moving
away from the area as the period begins. Front will be followed
by surface high building in from the north. Lingering low level
moisture may lead to some areas of light rain or drizzle for the
first few hours of the period. However, cooler and much drier
air starts spreading in from the north-northeast as early as
midnight. Remainder of the period will be dry with flat pattern
aloft trending toward subtle ridging as the 5h Gulf of Mexico
ridge expands north. Forecast soundings show mid-level
subsidence starting to increase as early as daybreak Tue and
peaking in strength early Wed morning. There will be upper level
moisture moving across the top of the ridge late Tue and Tue
night, ahead of a system moving across the southern MS Valley.
This will result in increasing high clouds late Tue and Tue
night. Despite the increase in high cloud rainfall before the
end of the period is unlikely. Forecast soundings show no
appreciable moisture below 15k ft as well as strong downward
motion.

Temperatures above normal will continue through the period. Lows
each night will dip into the mid 40s for most areas. Only exception
could be Tue night in spots that typically run colder on good
radiational cooling nights. Right now it appears that increasing
high clouds Tue night will prevent strong radiational cooling, but
if clouds are slower to develop or thinner, the typical cold spots
could drop into the mid 30s. Highs Tue will be in the low to mid 60s
accompanied by abundant sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Wednesday looks unsettled as a warm front is
slated to lift through. However despite widespread cloud cover and
rain chances the prospects for QPF appear low due to WNW downsloping
mid level flow. On Thursday we wind up in the narrow warm sector of
the occluded system crossing the southern Great Lakes. Low level
wind fields will be rather strong so given ample sunshine some
instability should develop. Will add isolated thunder to the forecast
especially as the front looks a little faster and may arrive not
long after peak heating. Thursday night into Friday will be quite
breezy in the well-mixed CAA regime (especially Friday when
insolation will deepen the mixing). All weekend will find
cutoff/occluded cyclone well off the Delmarva. The resulting NE
surface flow will bring seasonable to slightly cool temps. Some wrap-
around moisture may make it this far south in the form of low
cloudiness from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 00Z...Terminals are VFR this evening. Showers are occurring
along a surface boundary which is currently moving offshore of KILM,
and -RA is occurring north of KLBT.

VFR expected through 11-12Z. Some patchy BR/IFR stratus is possible
overnight across the area, but will not indicate in TAFs attm
due to light patchy nature of rain today. A cold front will move
through the terminals overnight but wind speeds will remain
very light. MVFR will become more likely tomorrow morning as
rain increases. Winds will be northeast through the day, except
at KCRE/KMYR where northeast winds will become southeast by late
morning. Winds will then become northeast as a surface low
passes. By the end of the TAF period IFR cigs likely at all
terminals, except for MVFR at KFLO.

Extended Outlook...Becoming VFR overnight Mon. VFR Tue. Periods
of MVFR/SHRA Wed-Thu. VFR Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...0-20 NM are considerably more challenging
than 24 hours ago, as wind-waves have erupted across the waters,
in response to blustery SW wind. Outer water approaching 5 ft
at this time, 3-4 feet inshore, and 4-5 seconds wave periods
will become the dominant energy, making for higher wave-
steepness. An `Exercise Caution` flag is flying for all waters,
for 5 ft waves offshore, and SW gusts to 20 kt common. No TSTMS
expected but a line of showers make rake the inshore waters
after 6 pm, spurring gusty and erratic winds briefly early this
evening. Winds will ease overnight as the front nears, shifting
to north in the pre-dawn hours, before daybreak all marine
zones. Winds to become perhaps E 15 KT Monday afternoon, but NE
winds will ram up notably, heading into Monday night.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Cold front will be south of the area as the
period begins with northeast surge setting up. Northeast flow
late Mon night and early Tue will be 20 to 25 kt with gusts in
excess of 30 kt likely. Surge will be of short duration but seas
building to 7 ft in the vicinity of Frying Pan Shoals are
likely. A short duration SCA will likely be needed Mon night
into Tue. Gradient starts to relax on Tue with speeds decreasing
in the afternoon. Northeast flow continues into Tue night
before the high starts to sag south, veering winds to easterly
early Wed as the center of the high slips off the NC coast. Seas
start falling late Tue afternoon and may be as low as 2 to 3 ft
by the end of the period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Light southerly flow with a warm front
lifting through the area. Following its passage winds will turn
to SW and start increasing on Thursday. While wind speeds will
remain below thresholds it looks like some advisory-worthy 6ft
seas are possible. Cold frontal passage will lead to a sharp
turn to the NW and no appreciable decrease in wind speeds. If
anything the range of gusts may open up. Advisory may be
maintained for at least part of Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR



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