Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 050620
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE SE U.S.
COAST...AND THE PIEDMONT TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN TENNESSEE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY AND KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NC.
ALTHOUGH FORCING REMAINS MINIMAL...THERE IS A HINT OF DIFLUENCE
ALOFT AND ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF
POPS PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
LOWER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER PLAY AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF JULY...THE CAROLINAS WILL SEE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WHILE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS REMAIN
SITUATED ON THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ILLUSTRATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD...A SHORTWAVE LAGS BEHIND ACROSS THE
TN/KY BORDER WHICH FORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
TREKS NORTHWARD. S/W ENERGY FROM THE FEATURE NEARS THE CAROLINAS
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT TO MAKE IT TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH ITS INFLUENCE ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARIES...AND A MOISTURE-
RICH ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WITH CLOUD COVER/CLOUD DEBRIS LINGERING
EACH DAY...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TREMENDOUS
RIDGING AND RECORD HEAT IN THE WESTERN CONUS...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE CALIFORNIA...CAUSING DOWNSTREAM FLATTENING OF
THE FLOW WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST. AS
THE RIDGING INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK...SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL BE
MOSTLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE AREA SO POP WILL REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CHANCES...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ELEVATED TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH A DYING COLD
FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS DIVING INTO THE
RIDGE SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT WILL SHOW A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY WITH AT
LEAST WESTERLY WINDS EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH REASSERTS
ITSELF ON SATURDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE
HIGHEST POP CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD...SO WHILE TUE/WED AND SAT
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE TYPICAL
BOUNDARIES...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
THU/FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE KCRE
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR AS A MARINE
AIRMASS SATURATED FROM EARLIER STORMS MOVES ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE
SSW BECOMING A MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVED VSBYS AT KCRE. THERE WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

AFTER SUNRISE SW-WSW WINDS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS DECREASING. BY LATE MORNING THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS WILL
BE AT KFLO. TOWARDS AFTERNOON BOTH KFLO/KLBT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR VCTS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WORKS WELL INLAND OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SW. WINDS WILL
BECOME SSW AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE LATE MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. BEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUES FOR THE
WATERS THROUGH 6 AM AS A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE HIGH SIDE OF A
10-15 KNOT RANGE CONTINUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY ONCE
AGAIN A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SAME RANGE. TONIGHT LOOKS QUIETER AS
WELL FROM A WIND SPEED STANDPOINT AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST FEW CYCLES IS WEAKER.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.
DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RUN AT 6 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF THE SW WIND
DRIVEN WAVES OUTPACING THE SMALL 1 TO 2 FOOT SE GROUND SWELL. THE
COMBINATION OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FLAG
ACROSS ALL WATERS THRU DAYBREAK SUN.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING NEAR THE AREA COULD CREATE A BRIEFLY TIGHTENED GRADIENT.
AS FOR SEAS...WILL SEE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SETUP WITH SW WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
WILL BE COMMON WITH LITTLE DIURNAL FLUCTUATION OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR-
SHORE SEA BREEZE. LATE IN THE PERIOD WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE W/SW AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY STALL INLAND FROM THE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-4
FT EACH DAY...WITH A WEAK SE 9 SEC SWELL COMBINING WITH THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT 5 SEC SW WIND WAVE TO DEVELOP THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR


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