Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 311458
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A DRYING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RISING OUT OF THE GULF MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POTENTIALLY A DRYING
TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY 2015 WILL END ON A
COOL AND BRIGHT NOTE AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON CHECK
IN ROUGHLY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR VERY LATE JANUARY.
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MAX
READINGS OCCURRING BETWEEN 3 PM AND 4 PM. INFILTRATION OF CIRRUS
APPEARS LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT IMPACTS ON THE RISES
OF TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN MINIMAL. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN WIND-SPEEDS WILL EVENTUATE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ORIENTED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMPT A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND CHARACTER BY MIDDLE TO LATE AFTN.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EDGES EASTWARD TO SEA...A WEAK RETURN
WIND FLOW WILL COMMENCE...ALLOWING SSE-SW WINDS 6 MPH OR LESS TO
TREND TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON THE UPTICK TONIGHT WILL FLATTEN OUR
TEMPERATURE DROPS OVERNIGHT...WHERE READINGS COULD LEVEL OFF AFTER
6Z/1AM IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS H6-H5 CLOUDS THICKEN UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MOISTURE BEING DEPLETED A BIT
AS IT MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. WE SHOULD
GET ONE AREA OF SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED RAIN BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC
MONDAY...WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST POPS RESIDE. THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MAINLY DRIVEN
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
MOVES ACROSS MONDAY MORNING.

INTERESTING TO NOTE SOME RESPECTABLE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MIGRATING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC MONDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50-60
KNOTS AT 925-850MB. OBVIOUSLY INSTABILITY WILL BE ALMOST NON
EXISTENT AT THIS TIME AND THE LACK OF ANYTHING MODESTLY ORGANIZED
WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAVE BEEN TO ADJUST
COASTAL HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY AND TO DO THE SAME AREA WIDE
FOR LOWS TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS
THE GFS REMAINS THE WET SOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF THE DRIER ONE.
THE DIFFERENCES REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT GETS
KICKED OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHTLY DEEPER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT PHASES SOMEWHAT AS A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THE PHASING OR THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...HAVE WALKED BACK
POPS ESPECIALLY EARLY...WEDNESDAY. I DECREASED VALUES FOR THURSDAY
AS WELL WHILE KEEPING LOW CHANCE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT LEAST BASED
ON THE ECMWF BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF THE GFS SUITE OF PRODUCTS
VERIFY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS COOL
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN IF THERE IS LESS MOISTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
POSSIBLE RAIN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 958 AM SATURDAY...APPEARS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS WIND GUSTS...NOT SUSTAINED...ARE MELLOWING
WITHIN A 17 KT-21 KT RANGE. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-4 FEET TODAY AND 5
FEET ALONG THE EXTREME OUTER RIBBON OF THE 0-20 NM CORRIDOR. SEA
SPECTRUM A MIX OF NORTH TO SOUTH CHOP IN 3/4 SECONDS WAVE PERIODS
AND E WAVES 1-2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. WINDS TO ABATE THIS AFTN
WITH LIGHT SSE-SSW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AS SEA HEIGHTS
DAMPEN ALL THE WHILE.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY WHILE TURNING FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FROM TEN KNOTS OR LESS TO A HEALTHY 15-20 BY DAYS END.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE FURTHER...INTO A RANGE OF 25-30 KNOTS. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHILE A BRIEF GALE WARNING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OBVIOUSLY WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SCENARIO NOT A
GOOD TIME TO BE OUT ON THE WATER. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE WINDS
WITH 2-3 FEET SUNDAY INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
EARLY MONDAY CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...INITIALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. DIRECTIONS SHOULD TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IN SOME FORM DEVELOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
IT WEAK THROUGHOUT WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS...JUST OVER TEN KNOTS
WITH THE INITIAL NORTHEAST FLOW. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
TUESDAY DROPPING SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...COLBY
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






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