Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 021741
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO BY SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY TUESDAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...AND WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRESSURE AND A LEAD S/WV
WITHIN A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR REGION REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED. THAT SAID...ILN
AREA WILL HAVE SUNNY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME ISSUES IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND STRONG LLJ OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. USING ALL AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
(CONVECTION ALLOWING) AND SYNOPTIC MODELS (CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION)...IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL UNDERGO A WEAKENING TREND AS IT TRIES
TO PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR NORTHERN ZONES. PART OF THIS
WEAKENING TREND WILL BE DUE TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY AS WELL AS A SHIFTING OF LOW LEVEL FORCING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. A RESULT...HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NRN AND
NWRN ZONES. SPC SWODY1 GLANCES OUR FAR NW WITH THE SLIGHT RISK
FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS...AND AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GIVEN THE
FORECAST SCENARIO. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
OUR AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO OBTAIN
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST OVERALL SHEAR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO ONLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...BUT WITH LOW COVERAGE...THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WITH DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR OUR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH
MID 60S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER NEAR THE
DEPARTING FRONT.

MODELS NOW CONCUR THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST
CANADA. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID 80S SOUTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION HEADING INTO
MID WEEK AS WE RETURN TO A ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF WHICH SUGGESTS THAT AN EMBEDDED
S/WV MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO OUR
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MEANWHILE AN UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SYSTEM WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 01.12Z GFS RUN
SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED QPF QUITE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THE 06Z RUN...TAKING IT RIGHT THROUGH THE ILN CWA ON
FRIDAY. BASED ON THIS LARGE SHIFT AND THE FACT THAT ITS QPF AND
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL LOOK OVERDONE...HAVE USED A BLEND MORE
HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ECMWF /WHICH HAS SHOWN A LITTLE
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY/ TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STAYING TO OUR SOUTH FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...A COOLER AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS LOOKS TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF
SITES STARTING AROUND 11Z. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
TO BE AT CMH AND LCK WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT CVG BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTH TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...KURZ
AVIATION...CONIGLIO


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