Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
436 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

A low pressure system will track from the mid Mississippi
Valley this morning into the Great Lakes tonight with an
associated cold front pushing quickly east across the Ohio
Valley overnight. Warm southerly flow ahead of the front will
lead to unseasonably warm conditions today. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected tonight as the cold front moves
through. More seasonable temperatures will spread into the area
for the weekend.


Surface low pressure is centered over northeast Missouri early
this morning with a warm front extending east across Illinois
and Indiana and into northern Ohio, just to the north of our
fa. With our area in the warm sector, skies have generally gone
partly cloudy and temperatures have not dropped off that much,
mostly running in the mid to upper 50s attm. The surface low
will shift into southwestern lower Michigan by late this
afternoon with an attendant cold front pushing east into western
Indiana by late afternoon. Warm southerly low level flow will
persist ahead of the front with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range
possible. This will help push temperatures up into the low to
mid 70s for highs today while dewpoints are forecast to creep up
into the mid to upper 50s through the afternoon. This combined
with increasing mid level lapse rates will allow for
destabilization through the day with mucapes pushing up into the
1000 to possibly 1500 J/KG range this afternoon. However,
forecast soundings are showing a decent warm layer between
5-10K feet and this will result in a fairly strong cap through
much of the day. As a result, will maintain a dry forecast
across most of our area through this afternoon. The cap will
begin to break down late this afternoon across the far
west/northwest so will allow for some lower chance pops to work
in there late this afternoon.


The cold front will push east across our area this evening and
into the overnight hours. As the front approaches, the cap will
continue to weaken and with better mid and upper level forcing
moving in from the west, expect fairly rapid shower and
thunderstorm development across our west early this evening,
then spreading east through late evening into the early morning
hours. Some of the higher res CAM models are indicating two
lines of pcpn developing across our west, one along a pre
frontal trough and then another along the cold front, before
eventually congealing into more of a single line across our
east through late evening and into the early morning hours.

Impressive deep layer shear values will spread in from the west
through the evening hours and this will be coupled with an
increase in both the 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear values as the front
approaches. This will support a primarily damaging wind threat
but with cooler air moving in aloft and increasing mid level
lapse rates, some hail will also be possible. Several of the
higher res models are also hinting at the possibility of a few
quasi-discrete cells early in the period across the west. This
coincides with a bit of an uptick in updraft speed/helicities
across western portions of our fa in the 23z-02z. This will
result in an isolated tornado threat through the early evening
hours. As the storms transform into more of a QLCS through late
evening, the severe threat will transition more to just a
damaging wind threat, although an isolated tornado will still
be possible with any stronger rotations within the line.

Temperatures will remain up ahead of the front but then begin to
drop off fairly quickly from the west later tonight as CAA
developing in the wake of the front. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 30s west to the mid 40s east. Some wrap around
moisture will work back into the area through the day on
Saturday as the mid level trough axis pivots east across the
region. This will result in the possibility of a few rain/snow
showers through the day. In addition, a fairly tight pressure
gradient combined with some continued low level CAA will lead
to gusty winds in the 25 to 35 mph range on Saturday.
Temperatures will also struggle to rise much, with readings
ranging from the upper 30s west to the upper 40s east.


Surface high pressure will be centered over Tennessee and
Kentucky Sunday morning allowing for temperatures in the mid to
low 20s. During the afternoon Sunday surface high pressure will
push east with clear skies slowly giving way to some cirrus in
the afternoon. This is thanks to a broad upper level trough
centered over Canada with pieces of energy rotating east through
the base of the trough. By Monday morning the next piece of
energy will approach the area from the west. The ECMWF and GFS
are slightly different here on a piece of energy that starts out
in Southern California on Sunday and eventually pushes east
across our area Monday. The ECMWF and GFS both weaken the energy
but the GFS holds the energy together slightly longer than the
ECMWF. This allows light precip to push into the area Monday
morning. The ECMWF solution just doesn`t have enough energy left
with the system to produce QPF. Looking at the soundings from
the GFS it looks like rain/ snow will be the likely p- type
starting off Monday before changing over to all rain Monday
afternoon. The ECMWF solution produces quite a different
solution though and have kept PoPs chance at best for now.

Monday night into Tuesday morning the GFS and ECMWF continue to
diverge on solutions with timing between the models moving out of
phase. Both models show an upper level disturbance across the
Western United States which amplifies and heads east across the
forecast area through the middle of the work week. The ECMWF is
slower and slightly weaker with the system compared to the GFS. The
ECMWF pushes a wedge of PV ahead of the system though and allows
rain to start Monday night while the GFS is now slightly more
delayed with the onset of precipitation. A warm front will then lift
across the area Tuesday allowing temperatures to climb close to 60
degrees again. A surface low will then form Tuesday into Wednesday
and push northeast towards Michigan with a cold front extending from
the low down to the Gulf Coast. The GFS being much quicker with the
energy has the cold front clearing the CWA Wednesday morning while
the ECMWF has the cold front clearing the area Wednesday evening.
The Canadian is a good compromise between the two and have trended
the forecast this direction.

For the end of the work week northwest flow will develop on the back
side of the trough axis only to have an upper level disturbance push
southeast towards the forecast area. As of now both the ECMWF and
GFS have the system more across our northeastern zones and therefore
have trended the chance of precipitation higher across the
aforementioned area.


The warm front has pushed north of the area and with it, the
threat for additional showers through the early morning hours.
In a continued WAA pattern, expect to see sct-bkn mid to high
level clouds persist through daybreak. Meanwhile, a 35-45 knot
925mb to 850 mb low level jet will rotate up into the area
through the morning hours and this will lead to some marginal
LLWS, particularly through daybreak or so and at the western
TAF sites.

A low pressure system currently in the mid Mississippi Valley
will lift northeast into lower Michigan through this evening. An
associated cold front will push east across Indiana and into
Ohio through this evening. It looks like we will remain capped
through much of the day, but the cap will weaken late this
afternoon and into this evening as the front approaches. This
will allow for some sct to bkn thunderstorms to develop and push
east across the area through the evening hours tonight. In
addition, gusty southerly winds into the 20-30 knot range will
develop later today ahead of the approaching front.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday and


Record High Temperatures
Date     CVG           CMH                DAY
Fri 2/24 72(1930)      72(1961)           67(1930/1961)

February Record Highs

CVG 76 set 2/10/1932
CMH 75 set 2/26/2000
DAY 73 set 2/11/1999 and 2/25/2000




LONG TERM...Haines
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