Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 292043
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE
EVENING...PROVIDING AN OVERNIGHT LULL. KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PCPN INTO THE EARLY EVENING SE OF I-71. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THAT THE AREA NW OF I-71 SHOULD STAY DRY THIS AFTN/EVENING.

BACKED OFF ON THE PCPN CHANCES LATE...AS THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CDFNT.

TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE S/W WILL PUSH A CDFNT TOWARDS
THE FA. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MORNING COULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A INCREASING CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
POPS SHOULD BE IN THE W CNTL OHIO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CDFNT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA. CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS A
LITTLE AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO PCPN COULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE MAIN H5 S/W THRU ON SUNDAY.
THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A LITTLE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ON SUNDAY AS IT PRODUCES A QPF BULLS-EYE. PCPN
SHOULD COME TO END AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S NW OF I-71...WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. UNCERTAIN WHETHER ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. SO HAVE CONTINUED
WITH VCTS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. APPEARS THAT QUITE A BIT OF
MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AND SOME CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR SITE IS
LOW ENOUGH THAT FAR OUT IN TIME TO OMIT FROM TAFS AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.  MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...






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