Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 180228
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
928 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the Plains will build into the
Tennessee Valley this evening. Southwest flow around this high
will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week.
The chance of precipitation will return to the area this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure is currently located over Arkansas
and is forecast to slowly push east overnight. As this happens,
skies will continue to be mainly clear and temperatures have
quickly fallen into the single digits. The main question here is
how much will temperatures and wind chills continue to fall
with the winds remaining up. Wind chills will be in zero to 10
below zero range this evening into Thursday morning. Have issued
an expanded SPS covering all counties to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
During the day Thursday surface high pressure will slowly pull
east with the pressure gradient quickly increasing across the
area. Low level thermal profiles will quickly recover Thursday
with 850 mb temperatures rising from 15 degrees C below zero to
2 degrees C above zero by the afternoon. Have gone ahead and
raised high temperatures for Thursday given the strong WAA and
mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A southerly low level flow will develop on the backside of
retreating surface high pressure by the end of the week. This high
will provide dry weather and moderating temperatures. Temperatures
by the end of the week will warm up closer to normal. Expect highs
on Friday to range from the middle 30s north to around 40 south.

In WAA pattern a chance of a few showers will likely develop
Saturday. Temperatures expected to continue to warm with highs
Saturday from around 40 north to the upper 40s south.

Mid/upper level flow to back with and deepening surface wave
ejecting from the central plains Sunday into the Great Lakes Monday
night into Tuesday. In the warm sector on Sunday the best chance of
rain shifts north thru ILN/s FA. Therefore, shift pops north and
then limit pops to very low chance category. Expect temperatures to
be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs Sunday generally between
the mid 40s north to the lower 50s degrees.

Models solutions have trended slower with system and associated
associated surface cold front expected to sweep east through ILN/s
FA later Monday/Monday night . Therefore, will ramp rain pops up
late  in the day into Monday night. On the warm side of the system,
above normal temperatures to continue with highs from the upper 40s
northwest to the lower/middle 50s southeast.

With upper low tracking through the Great Lakes, a chance of
precipitation will linger into Tuesday with rain changing to snow.
The best chance will occur across the north counties. Temperatures
turn closer to normal with highs Tuesday from the mid 30s northwest
to near 40 southeast.

In the wake of this system surface high pressure to build in
providing dry weather for the middle of next week. Temperatures will
continue close to normal with Wednesdays highs from the mid 30s north
to the lower 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR has arrived and will likely prevail through the TAF period
under high pressure and a dry airmass. Sky cover will consist of
cirrus and a few cumulus. Winds from the southwest will increase
in speed Thursday in response to a short wave trough over the
Great Lakes, with gusts close to 20 knots possible at DAY and
ILN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday afternoon into
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Haines
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio/Haines


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