Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 050547
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
147 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN. THIS
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION REMAINS MOST ACTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A GENERAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT IT
MAY BE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED LOWS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR RAIN COOLED AIRMASS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LEFT OVER FROM UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN SOME MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN FRIDAY. THEREAFTER
RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO CAP OFF ATMOSPHERE. MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS. HAVE GONE
JUST A SHADE LOWER THAN MOS FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY.

A SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE FA.  WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE LOWER 80S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  WITHOUT A LOT OF CONTINUITY
DECIDED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE CATEGORIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER HOWEVER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUALLY CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AT THE TAF SITES. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME
TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA MAY APPROACH THE DAYTON AREA BY
EARLY MORNING...BUT ONLY A VCSH HAS BEEN USED IN THE TAFS BASED ON
CURRENT PROJECTIONS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF STORMS...THOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS ON
FRIDAY. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HATZOS



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