Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 132316
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE
FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...M/L CAPES HAVE RISEN TO 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KT WITH MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3
KM. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THESE STORMS REMAINS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE INITIAL CELLS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING AS
THIS FIRST COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS THE SUN SETS AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO WASH OUT SOUTH IF THE
OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE ZONES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING ALONG
THE WASHED OUT FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN OHIO
AND NORTHERN INDIANA AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE A MODERATE 40-45 KT...M/L
CAPES BETWEEN THE TWO COLD FRONTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE MUCH
ABOVE 500 J/KG. THEREFORE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT UPDRAFTS MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCORPORATE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THIS
SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY DROP THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 60S. BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. IN A DEVELOPING CAA PATTERN...850 MB
TEMPS WILL DROP OFF THROUGH THE DAY...RANGING FROM AROUND 7
DEGREES CELSIUS NORTHWEST TO AROUND 10 DEGREES SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR THEN SETTLING ACROSS
THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS WE GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THEIR TIMING/STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER AND FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE GFS. BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCE...WILL GO AHEAD AND
INTRODUCE SOME LOWER END POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE AIRMASS BECAME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THRU
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE FCST SOUNDINGS.
HAVE INCLUDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE
TO FOG. IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KCVG AND KLUK BUT HAVE LIMITED CIGS TO MVFR AT THIS TIME.

THE CONVECTIVE ENABLING MODELS ARE RE-DEVELOPING PRECIP INTO SW
OHIO AND NRN KY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE HANDLED POTENTIAL OF MORNING
PRECIP WITH VCSH. A SECONDARY FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTN. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE AND INCLUDED A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THIS POTENTIAL MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR





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