Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 230150
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
950 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid airmass will combine with daytime heating and mid level
disturbances to produce a threat for thunderstorms through
Monday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system will bring additional
showers and thunderstorms to the region for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quick update this evening with ongoing strong/severe
thunderstorms. Not to worried about organized severe threat
overnight given ILN sounding at 00Z which had poor lapse rates
aloft but very high freezing levels and deep warm cloud depths.
Overall shear is very marginal for organized storms, but DCAPE
is plentiful. So unless an organized cold pool can develop later
tonight out of storms in Indiana, think SVR threat will be
isolated like we are currently seeing across northern KY.

Got very close to issuing a FF watch for far southern OH/nrn KY.
Radar lighting up in e-w bands and low level jet is modest but
westerly which favors training. While PWAT is decent, it`s more
the nature/orientation of the forcing for repeat convection that
is more concerning. May still yet put out a FF Watch this
evening if IND storms continue to conglomerate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will not be able to return to the lower 90s and the
threat for heat indicies is significantly lowered. However,
humid and sticky conditions will most definitely persist.

Storms that are around early in the day will probably push east
as a surface boundary sets up sw-ne and conditions improve from
nw-se as the day progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern change will offer break from the heat and humidity.
Weak front pushing through may bring widely scattered
showers/storms Monday afternoon. Have included small pop for
this mainly in the south/southeast portions of forecast area.
High pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday with seasonal
temps with lower dewpoints. Another cold front will approach
late Wednesday night and push through Thursday and Thursday
night with scattered showers and storms. Front should continue
to the south and east Friday with cooler and less humid air back
in for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAF cycle will focus on the southern terminals for
thunderstorm impacts tonight (CVG/ILN/LUK and possibly DAY). It
seems per the latest data that new thunderstorm development
tonight will remain south of central Ohio (CMH/LCK), but this
a low confidence forecast with weak forcing signals. Back end of
mesoscale convective complex is currently south of the CMH/LCK
terminals and drifting southeast. New development across
southeast Indiana is an area that will likely continue to see
further upscale growth through the evening/overnight with the
potential for a training area of storms to develop along old
outflows and move through the CVG/LUK/ILN terminals
(particularly CVG and LUK). DAY lies on the northern end of this
potential thus have kept thunder coverage/duration less than at
sites further south. Carrying no precipitation on Sunday due to
lowered confidence. Plenty of moisture and instability remains
but will depend on overnight storms/outflows before timing/area
can be discerned. A little concerned for fog and/or low clouds
in central Ohio (CMH and LCK) later tonight but thinking cirrus
from thunderstorms to the south/west will temper that somewhat.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Padgett
AVIATION...Binau



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