Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 021055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY WORKING EASTWARD THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
A SFC LOW. THE TRAILING CDFNT WILL TRY AND SAG SOUTH INTO
KENTUCKY TODAY. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO WORK
INTO THE H5 TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAXS
WILL WORK E UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL
LIFT WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. LEWIS AND
SCIOTO COUNTY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER THERE AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. ENDED UP GOING 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION
TODAY. WENT A LITTLE HIGH IN SCIOTO AND LEWIS COUNTY.

THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT THE LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND NE KY WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TROF OVER THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN CONTINUES TO KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF POPS IN
THE FCST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
DROPPING BETTER ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING A CLOSED H5
LOW TO DEVELOP. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT SWINGS DOWN THROUGH THE FA.
UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40 TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT BEFORE
REBOUNDING TO 60 TO 65 ON TUESDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF THURSDAY AND SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP A LOW POP CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FCST
WITH THE BEST THREAT OVER ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO NEAR 60 FAR SOUTH.

SOME MODEL SOLN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP IN HANDLING
THIS UPPER LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND TAKES IT OFF TO OUR EAST NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PCPN TO END EARLY FRIDAY. SOME MODERATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...HEIGHT RISES AND SFC HIGH TO
BUILD IN SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO 70 SOUTH.

E-W SFC FRONT TO DROP INTO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE ONLY ADDED
SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR A SHOWER. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 70 TO 75.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXITING LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL HELP KEEP A
COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TODAY. LOW CIGS NORTHWEST
OF I-71 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN LIFT
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME MIXING OCCURS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE AIM ON THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
AND AFTER A BREAK IN CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...BRING IN A STRATUS
DECK THAT SHOULD BE VFR. IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD BE SOME FOG FORMATION BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE VARIOUS CLOUD
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT YET VFR LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

NORTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AND THEN BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER THE S/W CROSSES THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS


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