Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300615
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. THINK MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN
CLEAR BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S WITH
SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA ON
TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY EVENING AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY BUT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND AND AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS REGIME SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE LKLY
ESPECIALLY ACRS KLUK AND KILN. HAVE LIMITED VSBY RESTRICTION TO
MVFR AT KILN WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK.

UPPER LEVEL S/W TO DROP SE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THRU ILN/S AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH
TOWARD SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HAVE COVERED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACRS KCMH/KLCK DURG THE AFTN. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDAY OR KILN BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTN.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR





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