Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 171730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
130 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The front that has been advertised for the past several days is
stalled across north central Florida at this hour. On the heals
of this front, high pressure is building across the eastern United
States. Weakness in the pressure field remains over the Keys area
with light to gentle easterly winds at 5 to 10 knots at the
marine reporting stations and island terminals at this hour. Some
cloud line showers have developed in the easterly flow, and a
larger cluster of showers and thunderstorms west of Naples is

As has been the forecast for the last 48 to 72 hours, the front is
stalling north of the Keys area. Will keep slightly higher rain
chances, but well below guidance, due to better large scale
lifting nearby, under the easterly flow. Surface high pressure is
building across the eastern United States, with deep layer high
pressure aloft, which will keep winds from increasing dramatically
through the weekend. None the less however, winds will freshen
Thursday night through Saturday night. After the period of higher
rain chances tonight through early Thursday, expect a more normal
chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon through the weekend.


Weakness in the pressure gradient will continue through this
evening with rain chances increasing overnight. The cold front is
nearly stationary well north of the Florida Keys, with high
pressure building over the eastern United States. the result of
the building high pressure will be freshening breezes later
tonight through Saturday. A small craft advisory, or a cautionary
statement may be required for portions of the Keys coastal waters
Friday and Friday night.


Mostly VFR conditions will continue through at least 18/05z at
both the Key West and Marathon International terminals. A stalled
front well north of the Keys may be the catalyst for lowering
ceilings, and / or visibilities after midnight tonight. High
pressure will build over the eastern United States which will
increase northeast to east winds after 18/09z.


On this date back in the year 2011, 6.91 inches of rain fell in Key
West, breaking the daily rainfall record by nearly three inches.
This also ranks as the 5th wettest October day on record, while a
whopping 13.54 inches observed on October 4th 1933 holds the top
spot. Rainfall records in Key West date back to 1871.


Key West  77  86  77  86 / 50 50 40 30
Marathon  77  86  77  87 / 50 50 40 30




Data Collection......Fling

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