Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 230123
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE REEF SOUTH
OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES
IN THE REMAINDER ON THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 10
MPH.  C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR 10
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE
JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE
75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF MAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION...LACK
OF AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA BAY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. NO
ADVISORIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
OFFSHORE KEYW THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 2500 FT. EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BEGINNING 14-16Z SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON MAY 22ND...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 30 YEARS LATER. IN
ADDITION...THIS LOW TEMPERATURE OF 82 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE WARMEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF
MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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