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000
FXUS62 KKEY 141822
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
222 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
MODERATION ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SHALLOW STRATOCU SKIRTING THE ISLAND CHAIN AND EXTENDING TO WELL
BEYOND THE STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE MIDDLE 70S WHILE THE DEWPOINTS ARE
REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

A SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
PERIODS EVEN AS THE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES STEADILY
INCREASE BELOW IT. EXPECT SHALLOW STRATOCU AS THE WIND SPEEDS
MODERATE DOWNWARD IN THE LOWER LAYERS...BUT OUR RAIN CHANCE REMAINS
ALMOST NIL. SAW NO NEED TO MAKE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
WEATHER ELEMENTS INTO AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS ON A PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD
MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY PLEASANT WEEKEND.

A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW
SURFACE PRESSURES TO DROP IN THE NORTH/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE DAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE KEYS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS GOOD AHEAD AND AROUND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THIS FORECAST ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THAT FRONT. THE LATEST GFS KEEPS A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL LAYER...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DECIDED TO INCREASE THE SKY
COVER GRIDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS...GIVING A LITTLE MORE CREDIT TO THE GFS. A LIGHTER
AND VARYING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE PERSISTS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR EACH OF
THOSE PERIODS AS A FEW LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES DRIFT THROUGH THE MID
LAYERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT AND
OFFSHORE FROM THE KEYS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE SPEED TREND
WILL TICK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TURNING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT AT LEAST A MODERATE BREEZE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN GULF EARLY MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS BY
EARLY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE WIND SPEEDS BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION AHEAD OF AND AROUND THE TIME OF THAT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
14/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AND SCT CIGS BASED AT 035
WILL CONTINUE AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. BASED UPON THE OPINIONS OF SEVERAL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...TEMPORARY BKN CIGS BASED AT 035 ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z
TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES ARE NIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...MARCH 14TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE
HISTORY...IN 1993...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  68  79  72  81 / 0 0 0 10
MARATHON  68  82  73  84 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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