Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 310754
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
352 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy with temperatures averaging in
the upper 70s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are
detecting only isolated showers and an occasional thunderstorm in
our county warning area. Surface wise, our region lies between a
western atlantic ridge to the north with another weak area of high
pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico. On our marine district,
winds are east to southeast at 10 knots or less.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
Although the majority of mid and upper level ascent will be to our
east, mesoscale forcing primarily in the form of wet cloud line
genesis will persist over the next several days. Furthermore, little
in the way of convective inhibition should allow lightning storms.
Subsequently, low chance pops will be inserted for the Florida Keys
today. Otherwise, enough strong insolation will allow high
temperatures to average in the upper 80s with overnight lows
generally in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees away from any
potential heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Ample moisture, light winds and little in the way of convective
inhibition will prompt low chance pops to be kept which are above
climo 12 hour pops through Sunday. Thereafter, as mentioned
yesterday, medium range guidance remains persistent with a plume of
high moisture (pwat 2.25-2.50 inches) within a low level perturbation
and wind surge. With that said, have inserted 40 percent pops for
this time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from showers, thunderstorms and possible waterspouts, mostly
east winds will remain below 15 knots on all Keys coastal waters for
the next several days. Therefore, no headlines or advisories will be
required.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to
predominantly occur outside the vicinity of the Key West and
Marathon terminals this morning. However, a midday to early
afternoon cloud line may provide focus for showers and thunderstorms
generally west of Marathon through Key West. While vicinity showers
and thunder were indicated for KMTH and KEYW respectively after 15-
16Z, an upgrade to TEMPO MVFR ceilings and IFR visibility is
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1904, Key West experienced its wettest May ever with 13.01 inches recorded.
Rainfall records have been kept since 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  87  79  87  79 / 30 20 20 20
Marathon  89  79  89  79 / 30 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....JR

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