Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 131411
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS AND
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEYS HAVE DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE
UNIFORM FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IN OUR SERVICE AREA...RANGING FROM 10
TO 15 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC AND AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE GULF AND BAY.

THE EARLY MORNING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ON A
VERY DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT RADAR
DISPLAY SHOWS ALMOST NO ECHOES UPSTREAM...AM HESITANT TO LOWER OUR
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. THAT AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY WORKED
OVER FROM THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. BUT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO REGENERATE
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LAST DAYS HAVE PROVED AS MUCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HAVE RECENTLY SENT A ZONE UPDATE
TO REMOVE SOME TRANSITIONAL WORDING FROM THE EARLY MORNING RELEASE.

&&

.MARINE...
ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE SERVICE AREA ARE
RELAXING...PROVIDING FOR A MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND FIELD IN THE REGION.
EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ATLANTIC SIDE...AND
WINDS TURNED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS GULF SIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RADAR IS SHOWING ALMOST NO ECHOES AT THE
MOMENT...BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND OR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY WINDS ARE PROVIDING A
LONG FETCH OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA STRAITS. A PRELIMINARY
LOOK AT THE MORNING PROFILE SUGGEST MUCH LESS INHIBITION AND A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILE. THIS ALONG WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAVE
PROMPTED ADDITION OF AT LEAST VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST SHIFT
BACK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OFF AND WILL TAKE A MORE DETAILED LOOK AND
UPDATE TAF AS NEEDED.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO

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