Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE FRESHENING.
WINDS AT THE AREA C-MANS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS. A RECENT ASCAT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS PORTRAYS A SWATH OF NEAR 20 KNOTS APPROACHING. FINALLY...UP
STREAM CLOUD ELEMENTS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK ARE MOVING AT NEARLY 20
KNOTS. THIS MORNING`S RAOB OBSERVATION...CURRENT SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS...AND MIMIC TPW LOOPS INDICATE A DRIER AND MORE INHIBITIVE
ATMOSPHERE IS FILTERING INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
PERSISTED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCREASING
WINDS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD...NOR DEEP.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE GRADIENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN CONCERT WITH
THIS SETUP...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...WILL
SLIDE TO THE WEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THUS...THE STRONGEST MASS
SUPERHIGHWAY WILL RESULT AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE DRY AND INHIBITIVE AIR ABOVE 850 MB...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SQUELCHED. MINOR UNDULATIONS IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SWATHS OF CONVERGENT SHOWERS...SO WE HAVE NOT REMOVED
POPS COMPLETELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES...MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL CREEP BACK IN. MAIN FEATURES IN THE LONG TERM PATTERN
INCLUDE AN APPROACHING TUTT MONDAY NIGHT...ITS AXIS NEAR ANDROS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOWLY FILLS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED TROUGH
IN THE EASTERLIES WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...AXIS THURSDAY...AND ITS
BACK SIDE WILL BE THROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION
OF THIS TROUGH IS NOT AGREED UPON BY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
NEVERTHELESS...WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUSLY INTRODUCED WINDOW OF
40 PERCENT POPS...FOLLOWED BY NEAR CLIMO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE GULF WATERS SURROUNDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. BREEZES MAY
SLACKEN ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
NEAR 025...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1977...3.29 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL ON
AUGUST 29TH FOR KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  90  85  90 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  84  92  84  92 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ034-054-055-074-075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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