Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 061537
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING OFF OF FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC COAST HAS
HELPED TO OPEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS
HAVE RELAXED...AND ARE NOW GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE WARMER FLOW HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND DEW POINTS ARE UP IN THE MID 60S. LOWER
LEVEL ASCENT IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ASCENT IS AIDING IN THE MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZING OF THE MID LEVELS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO OUR
GULF SIDE WATERS. THUS FAR...ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDER HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SKIES.

SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND INTO FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF RAIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE EARLY
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AND TURN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS ARE EXPECT TO BE STRONGEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WETTER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE...AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. WITH THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...DESPITE THE INCOMING LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...TURNING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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