Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 081110
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
310 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
FOR A COOLING TREND...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MON-THU)
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND BRING DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS AND TEMPS ARE THE BIG ISSUES.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST AND WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN 8+ MB GRAD
FORM KDAG. WINDS PERHAPS ARE NOT A STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE
TO WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STILL SOME
WARNING LEVEL GUSTS WILL OCCUR FROM THE LA MTNS INTO THE SANTA
CLARITA VLY THEN INTO THE CSTL VLYS OF VTA COUNTY...THE SANTA
MONICAS AND WESTERN SAN FERNANDO VLY. WIND ADVISORIES COVER THE
REST OF VTA AND LA COUNTIES SAVE FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY. WIND
WARNINGS WILL UNDOUBTABLY BE CONVERTED TO WIND ADVISORIES THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN THE WARNINGS EXPIRE. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NEED
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENTS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEAK AND THE MORNING OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DIMINISH EACH DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE THROUGH THE ROOF TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH 585 HGTS
AND OFFSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY. ALL OF THE CSTS AND VLYS WILL BE IN THE
80S TODAY AND THEN LOOK FOR A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ON TUESDAY.
THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A FEW OR COOLING EACH DAY
WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)
NOT MUCH CHANGE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT. IN FACT IT WILL BE TOUGH TO DISTINGUISH THU FROM FRI.

THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD SATURDAY AND IS REPLACED BY WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW. SKIES MAY BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ADVECT IN. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL OFF A FEW DEGREES BUT WILL STILL BE
6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE GFS BEGINS TO GO ITS OWN WAY ON SUNDAY FORMING AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SW - LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A FEW TOO MANY BUTTERFLIES IN ITS
PHYSICS AND WAS DISCOUNTED. ALL OTHER MDLS CONTINUE SOME SORT OF
RIDGING AND THAT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THE CASE. LOOK FOR A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...

08/0600Z

AT 10Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO NOTABLE INVERSION.

OVERALL... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAFS. THERE IS A
THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT
TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A TWENTY PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE. ANY EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z CAVU TAF. THERE IS A THIRTY
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

08/200 AM...

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE INNER WATERS
FROM VENTURA HARBOR TO SANTA MONICA AND EXTENDING OUT TO INCLUDE THE
COASTAL ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AT TIMES AS WELL.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
BY THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE PARTICULARLY GUSTY NEAR SHORE AND NEAR CANYON MOUTHS.

&&

.FIRE...

07/200 PM

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...AS RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR VENTURA COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY (EXCEPT FOR
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY) FROM 600 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 600 PM
MONDAY EVENING. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL GENERATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER...BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND DRY. SO...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK...AND EVEN A CHANCE
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS SECTIONS
OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44>46-53-54-547-548. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 40-41-44-547-548. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 45-46-53-54. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON
      FOR ZONES 650-655. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ZONE
      676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
FIRE...THOMPSON
AVIATION...HOXSIE
MARINE...HOXSIE
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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