Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 100858
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
WEST. MONSOON MOISTURE MOISTURE MAY RETURN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS ON THE SAME SYNOPTIC
PAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER ON FRIDAY...AND MUCH MORE SO ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA (TAKING UP RESIDENCE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN). NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
IT WILL WEAKEN FROM DAY TO DAY.

FORECAST-WISE...NO MAJOR ISSUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDING INDICATE MARINE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING STRATUS SPILLING INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS...AND EVEN INTO
THE SALINAS VALLEY. SO...WILL EXPECT A SIMILAR STATUS DAY AS
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRATUS CLEARING TO NEAR THE BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
CHANGE IN STRATUS PATTERN (WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SHALLOW INVERSION
AND SLIGHTLY LESS AREAL COVERAGE). BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...H5
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND INVERSION SHOULD BE SQUISHED. SO...STRATUS
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHER THAN THE STRATUS ISSUES...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT TODAY TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT A NICE WARMING TREND DUE
TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND LESS MARINE INFLUENCE. BY SATURDAY
INLAND AREAS SHOULD COMFORTABLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

AS FOR WINDS...THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE USUAL
GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. ALSO...THERE SHOULD BE SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES (WITH MOS OUTPUT
INDICATING 20-22 KNOT WINDS AT PASO ROBLES THIS AFTERNOON). DO NOT
THINK WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBILITY
CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...FOR THE EXTENDED...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL CENTER
ITSELF OVER WESTERN UTAH SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH THE CENTER SHIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE NOT THE "CLASSIC" MONSOON SETUP...THERE
SHOULD BE A DECENT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD ENTRAIN SOME MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ENTRAINED...BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE. SO...WILL KEEP MENTION OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES MOUNTAINS AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FILTER
INTO INTERIOR SAN LUIS OBISPO/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
WEEK. ALSO...GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP...WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO GET A NIGHT OR TWO OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A FEW
MORE MODELS RUNS BEFORE EVEN ENTERTAIN SUCH POSSIBILITIES.

OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH SUNDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. ALSO...IT COULD FEEL A BIT MUGGY
DEPENDING ON HOW THE MOISTURE DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...10/1130Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...10/300 AM...

WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT
AVIATION/MARINE...CAK
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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