Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 231041
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXPANDS WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE DESERT AND SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA AT THE MOMENT AND ITS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY
MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...SO LOOK FOR SUNNY DAY TODAY. 592
DM HGTS OVER THE AREA AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO KDAG AND ACTUALLY
OFFSHORE FLOW FROM KBFL WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY. ALL AREAS
WILL BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE WARMEST VLY LOCATIONS AS WELL ALMOST THEN ENTIRE
ANTELOPE VLY.

NOT MUCH EXCITEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. CURRENTLY AN IMPRESSIVE
600 DM UPPER IS OVER COLORADO AND A WEAK TROF IS LYING JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE COAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY SW FLOW OVER CA. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BULGE AND EXPAND WESTWARD. BY FRIDAY
THE HIGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND ALL OF SO CAL. THE HIGH
ACTUALLY WEAKENS A BIT WHEN IT EXPANDS SO HGTS ACTUALLY FALL A FEW
DM THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE
TEMPERATURES MUCH.

MAX TEMPS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS AS THERE
WILL BE NEAR NEUTRAL FLOW TO KDAG AND INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW FROM
KBFL. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS WILL BE THE NORM IN THE VLYS AND INLAND
AREAS AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 80S AND SOME 90 DEGREES READINGS
ACROSS THE COASTS. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW RECORDS BROKEN WHEN
THE DAY IS DONE.  FALLING HGTS AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW WILL COOL
THINGS A LITTLE (MOSTLY AT THE COAST) ON FRIDAY.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE NO CLOUDS AGAIN THURSDAY. MDLS
INSIST THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SO KEPT THE MINIMAL CLOUDS IN FOR THE
SW LA COAST AND THE CENTRAL COAST. BUT AGAIN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.
THE NAM SHOWS THE BAREST OF EDDYS ON FRIDAY AND THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH
TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE A DECENT SUNDOWNER
TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH
THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SBA SOUTH COAST.
THIS KIND OF SITUATION OFTEN BRINGS SBA CITY THERE MAX TEMPERATURE
AT SUNSET AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TODAY IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SIT
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL COVER
CALIFORNIA. HGTS REMAIN NEAR 592 DM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WILL SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DAY TO DAY
CHANGE. THE MONSOON DOOR WILL BE OPEN BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MOISTURE AND EASTERLY WAVES WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF LA COUNTY.
THESE ARE THE SUBTLE DETAILS THE MDLS REALLY CANT HANDLE SO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION TO MAKE SURE NO MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO
THE AREA. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER MAY DEVELOP ALONG SOME THE BEACHES
BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE NO STRATUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT TIMES.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD AND SETTLES OVER YUMA.
THIS WILL CUT OFF ANY MONSOON CHC BUT IT MAY WARM THINGS UP A DEGREE
OR TWO.

BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOW NO LET UP IN THE HEAT THROUGH THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

THE FANTASYLAND GFS XTND XTND SOLN SHOWS NO LET UP FROM THE RIDGE
UNTIL AUGUST 3RD OR 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION...

23/1115Z

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH A ROGUE PATCH OF IFR/LIFR
STRATUS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ANY COASTAL TAF THIS MORNING. FOR
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CENTRAL
COAST TAFS AND KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING (ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z). FOR TONIGHT...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/200 AM...

FOR OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PZZ673/676 THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.