Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 050558
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
957 PM PST WED MAR 4 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE RAIN BEGINNING NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SAT)...A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL NUDGE UP
OFFSHORE WINDS A BIT IN EVENING UPDATE FOR THURSDAY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND SURFACE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN TODAY. THE FORECASTED LAX-DAGGETT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND -4.5 MB ON THURSDAY MORNING. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS...STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW...RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY
FRIDAY.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE RIDGE WILL START BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN. COOLING WILL START AT THE
COAST SUNDAY AND WORK IT`S WAY INLAND THROUGH TUE WITH EVENTUALLY
SOME COASTAL MARINE LYR DEVELOPING. SHOULD START SEEING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD LATE TUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM DOOR
CRACKS OPEN JUST A LITTLE. LATEST MODELS THOUGH SCALED BACK ON AN
ALREADY WEAK SYSTEM FOR US NEXT THU. THAT`S STILL OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK THAT GREAT AT THE MOMENT. STILL
LOTS OF TIME AND MODEL RUNS FOR THIS TO CHANGE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...05/0557Z.

AT 0525Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPRB. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE AT TERMINALS SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ANY EAST
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...04/800 PM...

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
LIGHT GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS NEARSHORE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING MAY REACH LOCALLY MODERATE SPEEDS...BUT MOST
LIKELY WILL PEAK NEAR 15 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT SCA WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...JLD

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