Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 241019
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
319 AM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be breezy winds and below normal temperatures into
midweek. The ripples of energy from the low will create possible
precipitation in the mountains from Tuesday into Wednesday...mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. Then a high should begin to
build in Thursday for around normal temperatures into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-THU)

A deep 5000 foot moist layer is in place over Srn Ca. There is no
inversion over the moist layer and this prevented any stratus to
form. Onshore flow has pushed the airmass up into the mountains
and the lift has produced a high based strata cu deck in the mtns
and the vlys. There is a slight chc of some drizzle near the
foothills over the SGV. There is a better inversion across the
central coast where a stratus deck has developed. The afternoon
sun will keep the strata cu going in the vlys. A little trof will
move overhead this afternoon and there is a slight chc it could
kick off a shower or a TSTM over the higher elevations of the VTA
mtns which should start off cloud free allow for enough sfc
heating to destabilize things. Max temps will continue blo normal
esp inland. The Antelope vly will see near advisory level gusts
to 40 mph this afternoon due to a strong west to east sfc pressure
gradient.

Another upper low rotates into the area this evening. It will
bring more cooling and will prevent any inversion and thus stratus
from forming. The low will enter the central coast around midnight
and will be over the VTA/SBA county line just after sunrise.
Decent PVA will bring a chance of showers to the interior vlys of
SLO and SBA counties as well as the SLO/SBA/VTA mtns. With the
cool pool of air overhead there will be just enough instability to
justify a chance of showers through the day and slight chc of
tstms in the afternoon over the interior and the mtns. Elsewhere
skies will be partly cloudy with below normal temps similar to
today.

Dry slightly cyclonic flow aloft sets up Thursday as the upper low
exits the state. There should be enough of a marine inversion
across the central coast to allow for stratus development...but
south of point conception it will just be another partly cloudy
night as a deep moist layer with no inversion creates some partly
cloudy skies. Max temps will warm a few degrees but will still be
blo normal.

.LONG TERM...(FRI-MON)

Both the EC and the GFS show dry NW flow on Friday followed by
broad scale west coast troffing for the Sat-Mon period. The hgt
rises Thursday evening will better establish a marine inversion
and allow for a better stratus deck to develop both north and
south of Point conception. A little more warming will bring max
temps up to just below normals.

The broad troffing aloft and onshore flow at the sfc will make for
three consecutive days of night through morning low clouds and fog
with Max temps several degrees blo normal. So it looks like the
May Grey will deftly transition to a June gloom.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0600Z

At 06Z AT KLAX there was no marine layer

Low confidence in TAFs due to a weak marine layer. There is a 40
percent chc of no MVFR conds for all TAFs KSBA and south. There is
a better chance of low VFR BKN conds later this morning and
afternoon.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no cigs
through 17Z. Better chc of VFR cigs after 17Z but could range
anywhere from 035 to 080.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no mvfr
cigs.

&&

.MARINE...

24/200 AM.

There is a 40 percent chance that Small Craft Advisory level wind
gusts will develop across the outer waters from Point Sal to San
Nicolas Island to the south and west out 60 NM this afternoon
through this evening. Otherwise not expecting SCA wind gusts
elsewhere through Wednesday morning. However, there is a high
probability that Small Craft Winds will develop across the outer
waters through at least Friday morning. There is also a good
chance that SCA level wind gusts will affect the western portion
of the Santa Barbara County Channel Wednesday afternoon through
early Thursday morning. 40 percent chance that the NW portion of
PZZ 655 near Anacapa Island will meet SCA criteria as well
Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning.

At this time it looks like SCA wind gusts will occur across the
western portion of the outer waters from Friday through the
weekend...and into early next week. A Catalina Eddy will likely
spin up most night through mornings across the inner waters within
the SoCal Bight.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...Seto

weather.gov/losangeles


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