Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242041
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED AND OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE
PRETTY MINIMAL...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND A BLEND OF
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED FOR THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY REVEALS THE MAIN PLAYERS QUITE CLEARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING OFF THE WEST
COAST AND LARGE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH COVERING THE NATIONS MID SECTION
ANCHORED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF ST JAMES BAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN SOME GUSTY
WINDS TODAY. GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 THIS
EVENING.

TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOW BY A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. FRONT MAY BRING A WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER TO THE
FAR NORTHEAST BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY.
BOTH THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FIRMLY IN
PLACE BUT TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED NEAR AVERAGE AS UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING IN AIR OFF THE PACIFIC AS OPPOSED TO THE ARCTIC.

PATTERN DOES START TO FLATTEN OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WEST COAST
RIDGE IS KNOCKED DOWN KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND SEASONABLE TO ROUND
OUT THE PERIOD. FOLLOWED THE EURO NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. SOME GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL LEAD TO SMALL POPS BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WAVERS IN THE
STATE...THUS SMALL POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  50  31  54 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         35  59  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       28  48  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    34  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  55  33  59 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  58  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      33  55  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  47  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        32  50  32  55 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     35  56  35  60 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  53  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         33  52  32  58 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  54  34  59 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...28







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