Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 080953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY...AND THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTLINED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A JET STREAK DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THE JET STREAK IS PART OF A LEADING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL USHER IN A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH...SET TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 BY THIS EVENING.
THIS JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD SOME CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS TODAY...AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT
RETURNS SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THEIR BEING AN OCCASIONAL SNOW
FLURRY OR SPRINKLE OF RAIN IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM THOUGH WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AREAS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND ALSO IN
THE DELTA REGION SOUTH OF I-40...WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-40
MPH RANGE TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE UPGRADED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
A WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN TO AROUND 4500 FT AGL. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WINDS WITHIN THAT LAYER...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH TO BE SEEN. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR
THESE GUSTS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER MIXING WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

OVERALL RATHER BENIGN...ALBEIT CHILLY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON
BEFORE DIVERGING AS THE PERIOD ENDS. AS SUCH...WILL BLEND FORECAST
SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SITS SQUARELY OVER THE MID
SOUTH.

FLOW DOES LOSE SOME OF ITS AMPLITUDE WITH TIME BUT THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS THROUGH BUT OFFER VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN.

A FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A SLIGHT REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR BUT THIS FEATURE DOES APPEAR TO DECAY SOMEWHAT BEFORE
REACHING THE STATE. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE PERIOD SHOWS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ECMWF SWINGS A TROUGH THROUGH WHILE
THE GFS HAS NO SIGN OF IT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
INTRODUCED TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. WILL ALSO TRY TO
BLEND NUMBERS AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME CLIMBING THAN PERHAPS MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF TEMPS DO CLIMB
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...THAT AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE NOTABLY LOWER
THAN FORECAST. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS...SO IF RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPS TO CRITICAL LEVELS THEN THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW AFTERNOON RH...AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL YIELD
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. FOR NOW...HAVE
FOREGONE THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING AS RH VALUES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO DROP LOW ENOUGH. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT /RFDLZK/ HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. PLEASE REFER TO THAT PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  25  41  23 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         48  30  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       37  23  38  20 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  28  47  29 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  45  28  46  27 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  29  47  30 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  28  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  24  38  21 /  10  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        40  26  41  22 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  28  46  28 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  27  45  26 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  26  43  24 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      44  28  44  26 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56


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