Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 250526
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1126 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. MOST OF THE WEST IS VFR AT THE PRESENT
TIME WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE MVFR BUT BECOMING VFR BY
MORNING. ONLY OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CLOUD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNTIL
VERY LATE WHEN SOME LOWER MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP IN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLACKING OFF AFTER DARK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ANY CHANGES WILL BE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS BUT CHANGES WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST OR ITS WORDING. ALL UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL END EARLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...ONLY EXPECT
SOME HIGH CIRRUS...BUT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SITUATED ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN WITH PLENTY OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE FEATURE. HAVE SEEN A FEW
RADAR RETURNS AND SFC REPORTS OF PTCHY LGT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACRS PARTS
OF AR. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

THE UPR TROF WL CONT TO TRANSLATE EWD TNGT AND BE E OF AR BY THU
MRNG. WL CONT A DRY FCST THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DCRSG AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL HAVE SHIFTED E OF AR ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...RESULTING IN A SLY WIND FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE 50S.

GULF MOISTURE WL BE IN THE INCRS STARTING LATER THU NGT AND ON FRI...
ESP ACRS WRN AR. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A NEW STORM SYS/CDFNT
APCHG FM THE PLAINS. CONTD TRENDS OF INCRSG POPS FM W TO E ACRS THE
FA STARTING FRI...WITH LIKELY RAIN CHCS FRI NGT INTO SAT. PRECIP
CHCS WL THEN DIMINISH LATER SAT AND SAT NGT AS THE STORM SYS/CDFNT
SHIFT E OF AR. STILL COULD SEE A BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACRS PARTS OF NRN
AR BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WILL A COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED THROUGH
AR LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE
AN ALL RAIN...WITH SOME RESIDUAL PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER SE AR
THEN GRADUALLY MOVE SE OUT OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. DRY
ON MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. A SECONDARY MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SAG THROUGH AR ON MONDAY...KEEPING TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL.
ALOFT A NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHILE SOME
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE UPPER FLOW ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AT BEST WOULD BE SEEN. WILL
HOLD DOWN AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LOW
POP CHANCES MAY BE SEEN WITH A POSSIBLE FRONT AND OR SOUTH STREAM
SYSTEM...BUT AGAIN TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TO GO
MUCH MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  52  38  57 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         32  57  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       29  52  39  56 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  55  40  59 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  55  39  60 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     33  56  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNT IDA AR      29  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  52  38  56 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  53  38  58 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     32  55  39  62 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  55  39  58 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         29  52  36  58 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      32  54  39  60 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





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