Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 211711 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion below...



Moisture levels continue to increase across the state early this
afternoon...with some scattered SHRA and DZ observed...along with
low CIGs. Expect chances for SHRA and eventually TSRA to increase
through this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through
the state. Expect most widespread SHRA/TSRA to develop across far
WRN AR during the evening hrs...then spread east to central AR by
around or just after midnight...then around the MS River by just
after sunrise Mon. Some breezy winds will also be possible with a
tight pressure gradient in place through the period. Improving
conditions are expected by the end of this TAF period.



SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday

Upper low pressure will move out of the Four Corners Region today
and into the Plains by tonight. This low will move through
northern Missouri Monday. Strong westerly flow will move into
Arkansas as the low passes north of the state.

Warm air advection continues to bring warm temperatures and higher
dew points into the state this morning. Rain chances will increase
through the day as the moisture increases. Atmosphere is capped
but once this cap is broken this afternoon, thunderstorms will be
able to develop. Expect a squall line to develop by late afternoon
in eastern Oklahoma and move east into western Arkansas. The best
chances of severe thunderstorms today and tonight will be in
western Arkansas where a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms is.
Damaging winds is the main threat, but a few tornadoes can not be
ruled out. The front will enter western Arkansas around 00Z and
exit the state just after 12Z Monday. Gusty winds are expected
today and tonight. High pressure will build into the area by late

Temperatures will be much above normal today in the 60s and 70s, and
approach record values in some locations. High temperatures
Monday will mainly be in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

The extended period will feature a dominant southern stream, and a
lack of an Arctic presence which has affected Arkansas much of the
month. Given this, temperatures during the upcoming week will be
several degrees above average. It is not exactly a January thaw, but
a lot milder than just a few days ago.

The period will start on a dry note. The weekend system will have
departed to the east, with high pressure building over the region
from the southern Plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

This will be a progressive pattern, so the high will not be here
for long. On Thursday, the high will head toward the southeast
states. A southerly flow will bring more moisture Friday/Friday
night, with a new storm system dragging a cold front into Arkansas
on Saturday.

Ahead of the front, good chances of showers are in the forecast.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible. As precipitation ends
Saturday night/early Sunday, there may be enough cold air wrapping
around the system for a brief period of light snow. Again, this is
progressive, so any wintry precipitation will not last long.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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