Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271140 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN AT KHOT AND
KADF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLLQ. CONVECTION WILL
PICK UP A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAFS DUE TO
HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59







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