Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230540 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HAVE KEPT MVFR AT ADF...DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

UPDATE...

THE ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE UPDATED FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OKAY...YOU KNOW THE DRILL. HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE. SAVE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM HERE OR THERE...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER HUMID...
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 THROUGH
MONDAY.

WILL...FOR NOW...REISSUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONGER RANGE MODEL DATA STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING
FCST TRENDS NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONT TO INDC A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE UPR RDG ACRS THE MID SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE GFS RMNS
FASTER THAN THE EURO SOLUTION. PREFER TO CONT TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND RMNS CONSISTENT
WITH CURRENT FCST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDC A FNTL BNDRY MOVG INTO
THE FA LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ALSO CONT TO INDC THAT GULF MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCRS
EARLY IN THE PD AS A WEAK EASTERLY WV MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS WL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER AND SMALL CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA FOR
TUE AND WED...ESP ACRS THE SERN HALF OF THE FA. EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL WL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN THAT
DIRECTION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




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