Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 280924
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
424 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

The main forecast concerns for the short term are the rain chances
and hot temperatures (in the south) today, and of course the long
awaited cool down.

First let`s talk about the heat in the south. The front that will
eventually push well into/through the state, is still located up
around the Missouri border. Convection will focus on and ahead of
this boundary today, which should leave far southern and
southwestern Arkansas rain free for the day. I say should because
much like yesterday, outflow boundaries from overnight and
morning convection could manage to spark off some isolated showers
and thunderstorms even in the southern parts of the state.
Mena made it to almost 100 degrees yesterday, and expect that
many places in southern and southwestern Arkansas will once again
reach the upper 90s today for highs if they do not see extensive
cloud cover or much in the way of convection. Due to the
uncertainty of realized heat index values and potential presence
of storms and/or cloud cover, will hold off on issuing a heat
advisory for those areas.

As far as rainfall is concerned, the central and northern half of
the state will be the focus for convection for much of the day.
However this will shift south as the day goes on and the
aforementioned frontal boundary begins to pick up some speed on
it`s way south. This evening and into the overnight hours will see
the south become the favored place for rainfall, although by that
time convection should begin to weaken. Expected precip amounts
are not overly impressive, but should be enough in many locations
to give the yard a good soak and stay the chore of watering your
lawn.

Finally, the cool down. While temperatures in the northern half of
the state will be cooler today, the cooler and drier air is still
well north of Arkansas. You have to go clear into northern
Missouri or therabouts to find dewpoints lower than 70 degrees.
Thus it will be Saturday, and more specifically Saturday evening,
before the significant relief to the heat and humidity arrives.
But it is coming. This weekend will be nice, despite a still warm
day on Saturday. Lows in the 60s, and even some 50s up north, are
still expected Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

Summer will take a break in the in the extended period. A blocking
pattern is expected, with a ridge of high pressure over the
southwest United States and a large trough of low pressure over the
eastern states. This will result in a northwest wind flow aloft
locally.

Given the scenario, the main story will be cooler temperatures.
Readings will be 5 to 10 degrees below average toward the beginning
of the period, and will be closer to seasonal by the end of next
week.

No major weather systems will be forthcoming. Other than a mention
of very spotty precipitation by Thursday, this is a mostly dry
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  69  86  62 /  40  10   0   0
Camden AR         96  75  91  66 /  30  40  10   0
Harrison AR       85  65  84  60 /  40   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    93  73  88  66 /  50  20  10   0
Little Rock   AR  91  73  88  66 /  50  20   0   0
Monticello AR     92  74  88  65 /  40  30  10   0
Mount Ida AR      92  72  88  65 /  50  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  88  67  85  61 /  30   0   0   0
Newport AR        88  69  85  62 /  30  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  87  64 /  50  30  10   0
Russellville AR   90  71  89  64 /  50  10   0   0
Searcy AR         89  70  86  63 /  50  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      89  71  87  63 /  50  20   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...46



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