Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 191956
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HEAVY ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
DIMINISHED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS WERE REDEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE LOW IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. WITH THE RAIN
COOLED AIR...THE LIGHTNING THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN LOW.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
CUTOFF OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING. FOR OUR REGION...CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LOOKS TO
BE THE BEST BET.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EAST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCREASING THE LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THUS...MODELS FOCUS STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND AN EARLY START TO RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN.

ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WILL RACE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH HOW FAST THE
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. THE GFS BRINGS THE RIDGE
AXIS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE RIDGE THEN
BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE WEST...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS KEEP THE REGION WET AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL TOO
LOW...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.

A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION. MOISTURE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SCATTERED SCATTERED AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONSIDERING
THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRESENT ACTIVITY...THIS ACTIVITY MAY TREND DOWN OR DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTION DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALONG WITH THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. 85/AG

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL PUSH OFF
THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...AND QUICKLY EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  73  88 /  50  70  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  76  88 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            75  88  76  89 /  50  60  20  60
NAPLES           75  84  75  85 /  60  60  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG



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