Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 021115
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
615 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOG CONTINUES TO AFFECT KAPF THIS MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE DOWN TO
LIFR AT TIMES BUT SHOULD RECOVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL
SITES. HOWEVER...A GULF BREEZE SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP FOR KAPF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER RIDGE, WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 591DM, WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WEATHER FEATURE THIS WEEK, AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO, TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER
LOW, DIVING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK, WILL CARVE A DEEP
TROUGH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL
HAVE LITTLE SUCCESS MOVING EAST AND ALTERING THE PATTERN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, UNTIL PERHAPS THIS WEEKEND. THUS SEVERAL DRY, WARM
AND HUMID DAYS WILL FOLLOW. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE, WITH PWATS PERHAPS FALLING TO 1" EVENTUALLY, EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AS A SURFACE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESPECTIVELY. GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. INCLUDING THIS EARLY MORNING, CAN`T RULE OUT
A FEW OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
PERHAPS CROSSING THE BEACHES, THROUGH MIDWEEK. PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR EACH MORNING. EVENTUALLY
MIGHT SEE SOME SEA FOG IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLIES, BUT WILL REACH THE
MIDDLE 80S THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY THIS WEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL INTO THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC, AND WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER AS A RESULT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THAN ITS OWN ENSEMBLES
AND THE ECMWF, WITH REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OP GFS ALSO HAS DEEPER
MOISTURE ARRIVING BY FRIDAY, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS IT MUCH DRIER
AT H7. THE OP GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COASTAL
SHOWERS GENERATED FROM PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND A COASTAL TROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT, PREFER THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
MAJORITY OF THE LONG RANGE SUITE, WHICH WASHES OUT THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND IS MUCH SLOWER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MARINE...

AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THIS WEEK`S WEATHER ACROSS THE WATERS. EAST
FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH A FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE WEEK, SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET OR LESS.

THE EAST COAST HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LOCAL RIP
CURRENT MODEL IS JUST BETWEEN A MODERATE AND A HIGH RISK. THUS,
CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT LIFEGUARD OBSERVATIONS MAY NECESSITATE
ANOTHER HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LATER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  69  83  72 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  81  72 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            82  71  80  71 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           84  67  85  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...10/CD



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