Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 201356
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
956 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER UPDATES WILL BE THE "WRAP-AROUND"
CLOUDS FORECAST TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 500MB TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE LOW STRATUS FIELD THAT IS
MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA HAS NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP
WITH ITS BASE AT 4K SO THESE CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION. THE HRRR WHICH IS A HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL
IS HANDLING THE SITUATION BETTER AND SHOWS THE CLOUDS LIFTING OUT
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF THE
TREND IS INDICATING TO0 RAPID OF A DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD
FIELD. ALSO, THIS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT LIFT OUT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CIGS RANGING FROM 3-4 KFT THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND
BREAK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS HEATING AND MIXING
INCREASE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL STEADILY SHIFT FROM THE NW THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF LOW STRATUS AND STRATOCU
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS HOLDING TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ERODING
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND NORMAL GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. FOR EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH RATHER UNEVENTFUL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST. IN FACT, NO APPRECIATIVE SIGNAL/INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE WISE, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED
CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE BUT COULD JUST DROP INTO THE
HIGH END OF THE MVFR RANGE PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE TONIGHT MAINLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IN ITSELF WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH
A SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE
PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 FEET OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
WATERS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE BROWARD WATERS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, SCEC FOR TONIGHT
AND SCA FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FOR THOSE WATERS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SWELL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST TIL LATE TUESDAY OR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN AFTER PEAKING
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT THE VERY LEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  68  81  67 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  69  82  69 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            80  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           82  65  83  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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