Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 011412
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS DEPICT SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PROFILE, BUT A BIT
DRIER AND A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. ALSO, SLIGHTLY STRONGER NW STORM
MOTION MAY KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND OF THE COAST...AND ALSO MAY
LIMIT FLOOD RISK IF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FORM
ALONG ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE THIS MORNING AND MIDDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
PUSHING FURTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GLADES/HENDRY/COLLIER
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. POPS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED
FACTORS...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST SITES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD BACK TOWARD THE TAF
SITES PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...THEREFORE KEPT VCTS AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF VARYING STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER ROUGHLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST OFF OF NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVING TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN STUCK. AT THE
SURFACE...AN INVERTED TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE ANCHORED
FROM NORTH FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE CAROLINA COAST. BEING SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A JUICY SUPPLY OF AROUND 2" PWAT AIR IN
OUR NEIGHBORHOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO...A FEW AREAS OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THIS INVERTED TROUGH...OF COURSE FIRST
PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE REACHING THEIR DESTINATION.
WHEN COMBINED WITH SE TO E SURFACE FLOW/SEABREEZE...MANY
INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS WIND REGIME...AND IF FLOW IS WEAK ENOUGH...THERE COULD
BE SOME WATER PROBLEMS...AS HAS BEEN STATED PREVIOUSLY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST ALONG THE INTERIOR AND THE GULF COAST...TYPICAL WITH A
SE TO E SEABREEZE. WINDS VEER MORE TO THE S AND SW INTO MONDAY
PERHAPS FOCUSING STORMS LATE DAY INTO INTERIOR AND EAST. TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVING EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO
MONDAY...BUT STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. BY LATER TUESDAY...THE
PESKY UPPER TROUGH IS DEFEATED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER
RIDGE...AS IT BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND OVER MUCH OF
FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. ULTIMATELY THE INCREASED
SUBSIDENCE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS...SUCH THAT LATE
NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS MUCH DRIER WITH NOT MUCH SURFACE FLOW
UNDERNEATH THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH...AND STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE
DOMINATED BY OUTFLOWS THAN SEABREEZE.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3
FEET...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM
BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MONDAY...BUT
KEEP IN MIND UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE WITH
REGARDS TO ITS TRACK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  89  78 /  40  30  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  80 /  50  30  40  40
MIAMI            89  78  91  79 /  50  30  50  30
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  60  30  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....21/KM



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