Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 292349
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME INTERIOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE SITES FOR THEM NOT TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A EAST-WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE SEAS BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS COULD ALSO HAVE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS

FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS
INDICATE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING PWAT`S AROUND 1.2 INCHES OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH WILL HELP IN SUPPRESSING THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE...NO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
OCCASION OR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

FORECAST FROM MONDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THAT ON MONDAY SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA ARE POSSIBLE.
BY TUESDAY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. BY MID-WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS WITH THE GFS INDICATING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATING THE FRONT STILL BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

MARINE...

FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY EASTERLY DURING
THE WEEKEND AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY MID-WEEK THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE GFS
INDICATING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATING THE FRONT STILL BUILDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST...SO THERE IS SOME CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED WIND FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE GUIDANCE
TO HAVE A CONSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  74  85 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  86  76  85 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            73  86  75  86 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           71  88  71  88 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...13/SI



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