Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241322 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
922 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
As of 920 AM EDT...Current forecast largely on track with only
minor adjustments based on the latest obs. Patchy fog, which was
locally dense in spots, from earlier this morning across portions
of the east coast metro area is finally dissipating and giving way
to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. A frontal boundary is
still on track to cross the region during the afternoon and
evening hours. A few showers and an increase in cloud cover will
accompany the frontal passage, with western areas seeing the best
potential in the early/mid afternoon and eastern areas late
afternoon/early evening. Thunder is generally not expected with a
strongly stable sounding profile observed on the 12z KMFL
sounding.

West to southwest winds will become breezy and gusty at times
especially this afternoon, with winds around 15 mph and gusts of
25-30 mph common. These westerly winds will help temperatures soar
well into the 80s, with a few spots along the east coast making a
run towards 90 degrees.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 735 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Patchy dense fog through 13z/14z will continue to lead to periods
of IFR ceilings and visibilities at the east coast sites, with
conditions expected to improve to VFR by the mid morning hours as
a westerly wind increases. A frontal boundary will cross the
region this afternoon and evening with widely scattered showers
and perhaps a rumble of thunder, but coverage is low enough to not
include in the TAFs at this time but will continue to monitor for
possible later VCSH addition. Winds will be westerly 5-10 knots
through 16z, increasing to around 15 knots with occasional gusts
to 25 knots. Winds will decrease to around 10 knots after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low pressure that produced all of yesterday`s rainfall has moved
east into Atlantic. Second area of low pressure, associated with a
cold front that will cross South Florida today is located over
Georgia early this morning. This feature will drift into the
Carolinas today and Tuesday, then head into the mid-Atlantic for
midweek. The aforementioned cold front will cross the region
today.

Regarding yesterdays rainfall, all three South Florida east coast
climate sites set daily rainfall records. Miami had 2.08 inches,
breaking the old record of 2 inches from 1938. Fort Lauderdale
received 3.7 inches, breaking 1954`s records of 2.2. Also, West
Palm Beach had 3.5 inches, surpassing the daily record of 2 inches
from 1927. Other isolated locations in South Florida had over 5
inches of rainfall. Isolated showers are expected along this
afternoon`s cold front, otherwise no rain is expected through the
short term.

Evaporating rainfall combined with clear skies and light winds has
allowed patchy fog to develop early this morning, and some spots
in Miami-Dade and Broward counties have had visibility drop to
around one quarter mile. Will be monitoring for possible need for
Dense Fog Advisory. Fog should burn off by 10 AM, and no fog is
expected tonight.

Temperatures ahead of the cold front will rise well into the 80s,
with the sunny skies and offshore flow possibly allowing a few
locations along the east coast urban corridor to reach 90F. Behind
the cold front, more seasonally warm conditions are expected,
with maxima in the 80s and minima ranging from 50s western
interior to upper 60s along the east coast metropolitan areas.
Westerly wind will gradually turn southerly by Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Expansive deep-layer high pressure ridge will build for the latter
half of the week into the weekend. No rainfall is expected, but
as moisture returns so will humidity. Temperatures will reach 80s
/some low 90s western interior/ each day, with mainly 60s
interior/70s coasts for lows. The center of the ridge will shift
eastward with time into the Atlantic, and this will transition
southerly winds to the east.

MARINE...
Cold front will cross the waters this afternoon and evening. In
its wake, northwest winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots and seas
in Gulf waters may briefly reach 6 to 7 feet. By early Tuesday
morning, these features will subside and good boating conditions
are anticipated for the rest of the week.

AVIATION...
Patchy fog has developed over the metro areas of Broward and
Miami- Dade counties early this morning. The fog should continue
to develop through the early morning hours before burning off
between 11Z and 13Z. KMIA...KOPF...and KTMB have already drop down
into the MVFR or even IFR conditions. Therefore, the these taf
sites have been adjusted to reflect the low VIS and Ceiling for
the early morning hours.

BEACH FORECAST...
Northeast swell impacting Palm Beach County beaches will lead to
a moderate risk of rip currents today. For Gulf beaches, west
winds of 15 to 20 mph will also lead to a moderate risk of rip
currents. After today, the rip current risk will diminish into
late week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Much drier air moving into the region will cause relative humidity
values to fall below 50 percent each afternoon across much of
South Florida this week. Although winds today and Tuesday will be
west at speeds of up to 20 mph, speeds will diminish as the
direction turns southerly Wednesday and Thursday. There is some
chance that critical fire weather thresholds for wind and relative
humidity will be met over Collier, Hendry, and Glades counties,
but based on the present forecast a Fire Weather Watch will not be
needed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  64  83  65 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  89  67  85  68 /  20   0   0   0
Miami            89  68  85  68 /  20   0   0   0
Naples           82  68  79  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...92/IRL
DISCUSSION...23/SK
MARINE...23/SK
AVIATION...92/IRL
BEACH FORECAST...23/SK
FIRE WEATHER...23/SK





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