Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 281816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRECTING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH SPLITS RIDGING CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD


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