Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 240925
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
525 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 520 AM SUNDAY...NO SIG CHANGES. ANY PATCHY MORN FOG WILL
QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORN BEFORE 9 AM. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A WARMING TREND WILL CONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EXCEPT MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE WILL GRDLY SINK SWD ACRS ENC
TNGT WITH WINDS BECOMING LGT SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH A SLOW INCR IN
LOW LVL MSTR. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ST/FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE. MILDER WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LWR AND
MIDDLE 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT PRODUCING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SHRT WV
ENERGY FROM W-SW WEAKENING RIDGE LATE WEEK WHILE SLOWING WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF UPR LOW OVER ATLC. WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST FOR THU WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS FRI-SAT AT THIS TIME AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS FOR PSBL HIGHER POPS.

LATEST GDNC CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGHS IN MID 80S INLAND MONDAY
WARMING TO NEAR 90 THU-SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN 60S DURING PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
WITH DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND SCT CU DURG THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONT TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORN PATCHY ST/FOG AS LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCRS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 520 AM SUNDAY...LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW E-SE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FT. THIS CONTS TODAY THEN WINDS VEER SE-S
TONIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SINKS SLOWLY S ACRS THE WATERS WITH
SEAS CONTG IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM NE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN S-SE WINDS 5-15 KTS.

SEAS AROUND 2 FT MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 3-4 FT BY WED-THU
DUE TO PERSISTENT S-SE WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/JBM
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JBM


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