Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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577
FXUS62 KMHX 250707
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
307 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass will linger into Monday as a cold front
approaches from the northeast. The front will meander just off
the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in from
the west Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Bulk of precipitation has moved offshore
with only a few stray showers on land. Think rain chances wil be
minimal through most of the morning with little additional
activity indicated upstream, only a few storms in the Charleston
area and over southeast Georgia. Latest high-resolution HRRR and
NSSL WRF models indicate some redevelopment along the sea breeze
this afternoon and will have high chance PoPs along the
immediate coast tapering to slight chance Coastal Plains with no
PoPs over the far northwestern CWA. Stream of deep-layer
moisture indicated by water-vapor satellite will keep skies on
the cloudy side today, but there should be enough breaks in the
clouds to allow high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Latest GFS and ECMWF models show ribbon of
deeper moisture and omega right along and just off the coast
tonight and will keep low chance PoPs over the coastal/Sounds
portion of our CWA tonight with no PoPs inland. Numerical
guidance indicates some lower dewpoints and slightly cooler low
temperature readings tonight behind weak frontal boundary with
mid 60s inland ranging to mid 70s Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Scattered showers expected Monday and Tuesday.
Then, cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC
Wednesday through late week. Typical summertime pattern
re-develops late week and next weekend.

Monday through Tuesday...Frontal boundary will linger along the
coast through Monday morning, and could see isolated to
scattered showers along the coast. A strong mid-level shortwave
will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday,
supporting scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Marginal instability but strong shear and much cooler temps
aloft, 500mb temps drop to -12/-13C, could see some small hail.
Will continue chance pops. Will keep sc thunder mention both
days, but think it will be isolated. Low level thickness values
and pred N/NE flow support highs in the low/mid 80s Mon and
Tue, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Strong high pressure will move
overhead on Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the
weekend. While overhead, this high will provide a somewhat
refreshing airmass with lower humidities and cooler temps.
Temperatures quickly warm back up however, as southwest winds
return on Thursday and highs creep back to the upper 80s/90
degrees late week and the weekend. Low temps for the period will
range mostly from the upper 50s/low 60s inland to upper 60s/low
70s along the coast. Typical summertime redevelops late week
into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure
offshore. Dry wx will continue through late week, with scattered
diurnal convective chances next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Monday/...
As of 1 AM Sunday...A mixed bag aviation-wise this evening with
occasional lower ceilings at the southern-most TAF sites of KEWN
and KOAJ and generally VFR conditions elsewhere. Current trends
are a bit more optimistic as precipitation is moving out quickly
along the coast and additional showers to the west in SC are
fairly light, so think mostly VFR conditions can be expected
through the TAF cycle, although will include Vicinity
showers/tstorms at KOAJ given the latest high-resolution HRRR
forecast showing additional showers or storms near the coast
from daybreak into mid-morning.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period of
sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will
be possible most mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...Winds continue to slowly diminish but some
6-foot seas are persisting over the outer fringes of the central
and southern waters and will keep SCA in place south of Oregon
Inlet through 8 AM. Winds should subside to 10 knots or less
with seas 2-4 feet by later this afternoon into tonight. Winds
will veer to more W/WNW later tonight behind an initial cold
front ahead of a stronger front around Tuesday night or so.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected through the period. Models now showing a
stronger surge behind the initial front Monday morning.
Increased winds to 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft, but there is the
potential for a brief period of 15-20 kt Mon morning. Surface
high pressure will build in over the area Tuesday night, crest
over the waters Wednesday, moving offshore Thursday. N/NW 5-10
kt Tue, N/NE 5-15 kt Wed, becoming S/SE 5-15 kt Thu, with seas
generally 2-3 ft.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
As of 3 AM Sun...Moderate threat of rip currents north of Cape
Hatteras, and High threat south of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD
RIP CURRENTS...MHX



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