Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 020430
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1230 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. AS
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...EXPECT SOME THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT TO MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN
WEAK FLOW AT THE SFC...ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP WITH AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF
COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS RATHER DRY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. LIGHT NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING. CHANCES ARE EVEN BETTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER WEAK MID
DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER SFC REFLECTION OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S COAST THUR AND FRI.
SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IF MODELS CONTINUE THESE TRENDS...PRECIP CHANCES
CAN INCREASE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING MID/UPPER 80S INLAND AND
LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM WED...MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
WITH PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH
BEST CHANCES OF IFR AT PGV. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 330 PM TUE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. CAN LIKELY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
EACH MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/
AS OF 1230 AM WED...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED FOR UPDATE. LATEST OBS
SHOW VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND SEAS AROUND 2FT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WAVES
WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOOSE WIND GRADIENT. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SURGE OF NE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 4 TO 5 FT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET SOUTHERN WATERS. IF MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST...CHANCE OF SCA IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA/LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...CQD/HSA/BM/LEP



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