Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 212007
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
307 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northwest across our area tonight
stalling over central north carolina late, then lifting north
Sunday. A strong area of low pressure and frontal system will
impact the area Sunday night through Monday. High pressure will
then build into the area from the south through mid week. A cold
front will move through the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Sat...Widespread low stratus clouds and areas of
dense coastal sea fog continue across eastern NC late this
afternoon. The clouds and fog will persist through evening until
a warm front begins to lift NW through the area. A mid level
shortwave will begin to move NE across the area this evening
accompanied by an area of widespread showers. These showers will
be most widespread mid evening then begin to taper off after
midnight as the shortwave passes. PoPs will ramp up to
categorical this evening then down to slight chance by dawn.
Expecting QPF around 0.25". Low temp forecast tricky as the
minimum temperature may occur this evening with steady or slowly
rising temperatures after the warm front moves through and the
flow becomes SW. Think low clouds could persist all night due to
saturated low levels but the atmosphere looks too mixed for
widespread fog except for along the immediate coast where sea
fog could linger into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Saturday... The main focus continues to be for the
potential for severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening.
Latest SPC Day 2 outlook continues to have our entire area in a
Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms with the Enhanced area over
the WFO Wilmington, NC CWA. With the severe weather threat
continuing into Sunday night, we continue to remind people how
important it is to have multiple ways to receive warnings as
severe weather events at night are particularly dangerous.

The models are coming into good agreement that after a possible
lull Sunday morning, an area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move through late Sunday morning into the
first part of the afternoon. Instability is just beginning to
creep up as this point and some of the higher resolution
guidance is suggesting short lived, linear convective lines may
race through our area. Cape values approach 500 j/kg, with 0-1
km shear values of 25+ kts and 0-6 km shear values of 50+ knots.
This time period may not be as active as later Sunday evening
but with the warm front through the area, surface based
instability should be realized. The best threat for severe is
expected late Sunday into Sunday evening as low pressure tracks
through west central North Carolina, and a potential squall
line forms ahead of a cold front that will move into our area by
daybreak. Model cape values decrease Sunday night from their
peak at 21Z Sunday, but impressive dynamics ahead and along the
front along with warmer air surging in off the ocean may offset
the "lower" instability. 0-1 KM Shear values increase to 40 kts
while 0-6 bulk shear increases to 70+ kts. With these impressive
wind fields both damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be
the main threats. The models are in good agreement with the
precipitation moving offshore after 06Z. Precipitation amounts
could exceed an inch in many locations but significant flooding
is not expected at this time.

High temperatures Sunday could reach into the 70s inland if a
few breaks in the clouds develop. Lows Sunday night should be in
the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...Mild temps and mostly dry weather
expected through mid week, then temps will fall below normal
late week into next weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...Vertically stacked low will continue to
track through the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Monday and Monday
night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible
through the day Mon, but expect bulk of precip to remain to the
north. Will keep iso thunder mention Monday afternoon with low
to the N/NW and forecast soundings showing decent instability
and marginal shear. Highs generally upper 50s to mid 60s and
overnight lows 45-50 degrees.

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure will shift off the
southeast coast Wed ahead of an approaching cold front. Warm SW
flow will allow temps to warm into the low/upper 60s...possibly
into the low 70s for some inland locations. A cold front is
progged to move through the area Thursday. The GFS remains much
wetter than the ECMWF, which is virtually dry across the entire
area. Will continue low chance pops. High pressure will build
in from the north behind the front as upper trough approaches
from the west. Low level thickness values support highs in the
mid 40s to around 50 degrees Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows
dropping back down to near/below freezing inland Friday
night/Sat morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 1240 AM Saturday...Very poor flying conditions at all
terminal through tomorrow. Currently, a mix of LIFR/IFR
conditions, but expect conditions to improve only to IFR this
afternoon. Then widespread LIFR will return back again tonight
as both ceiling heights and vsby will down. Expect rain showers
to move across the area late this afternoon/early evening, then
end around midnight. Rain will return back Sunday morning with
brief hvy downpours and thunderstorms. Onshore flow will
continue through the period at 10 knots or less.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Sub-VFR conditions could linger into Monday,
especially the morning with scattered showers. Pred VFR
conditions expected Tue through Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 305 PM Sat...Main marine concern continues to sea fog
this evening then winds and seas are forecast to increase after
a warm front moves through the waters this evening. E/NE winds
continue 5-10 kts and will veer around to SE early this evening
and remain light. SW flow will continue 15 to 25 kt Sunday,
highest southern and central waters with seas remaining in the 4
to 6 ft range, especially over the outer southern/central
waters. Later this evening winds will veer to SW and increase to
15 to 25 kt over the southern/central waters with seas inc to
6+ feet, and will continue a SCA for these zones beginning late
tonight. SW winds continue 15 to 25 kt, highest southern and
central waters with seas remaining 4 to 6 ft over the outer
central/southern waters.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Gusty winds and dangerous seas expected
Sunday night into Monday. Low pressure will continue to track
through the SE Sun night and through the Carolinas and Mid-
Atlantic Monday and Monday night. SSW winds will increase to
15-25 kt north of Oregon Inlet and 20-30kt south. A brief
period of gale force wind gusts will be possible south of
Oregon Inlet Sunday night into early Monday morning. NWPS and
Wavewatch show seas building to 5-8 feet north of Oregon Inlet
and 6-12 feet south. Gusty west winds 15-25kt will continue
Monday night and Tuesday. Seas are expected to subside below 6
feet Tuesday night. Gusty SW 15-25kt winds will develop ahead of
an approaching cold front Wednesday, and could see SCA
conditions re-develop. A cold front is expected to push through
the waters Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ130-131-
     135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 3 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...EH/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...JME/CQD



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