Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240735
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
335 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area today. A cold front
will move through from the west Thursday morning. High pressure
will pass to the south Friday and Saturday. A cold front will
slowly approach from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 am Wed...Forecast area is in a lull at present with a
large area of rain off the coast with only a few light showers
over the northern counties. Warm front has lifted north of the
forecast area with light southwest flow throughout. Models
continue to show good lift/instability/vort energy this
afternoon as front approaches from the west. SPC has slight risk
for today with wind/hail mostly likely threat along with an
isolated tornado. Risk coverage will not be big enough to
mention in the zones, but will mention in Hazardous Weather
Outlook. Made only minor tweaks to PoPs today. Much of the
morning will be quiet with just slight chance, but will increase
to likely this afternoon except the far northern counties with
50% as shortwave approaches and atmosphere destabilizes. Highs
will range from the mid 70s northeast to around 80 southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 330 am Wed...Activity will continue into this evening with
convection likely becoming a large area of rain with embedded
thunder. Rain chances will taper off from west to east after
midnight as deeper moisture and instability shift off the coast.
Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 am Wed...One more unsettled day Thursday, then drier
and warmer weather Friday and Saturday.

An area of rain with embedded thunder should be pushing off the
coast first thing Thursday morning in association with a cold front.
After a brief break in the precipitation behind this, more showers
and even the rumble of thunder are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening as a piece of upper level energy swings through our area
between 18Z and 0Z.  With the cold front just mentioned above to our
east, the atmosphere will be much less supportive of heavy rains
Thursday with precipitable water values (PWATS) about half of what
they are today (from near 2" to only around 1").  The result will be
scattered showers but relatively light QPF overall.

Friday and beyond will feature a warming trend, with our weather
becoming hot over the Memorial Day weekend.  850 mb temps climb from
around 11C Friday, to 15C Saturday and between 18C and 20C Sunday!
In response highs near 80 Friday, will climb well int the 80s
Saturday, and lots of near 90 readings are likely inland Sunday
afternoon.  We continue to maintain a 30% chance for a thunderstorm
Saturday night and Sunday.  Certainly nothing to cancel any outdoor
activities over.  However good model agreement continues that a
series of weak upper level disturbances will move through in the
northwest flow aloft and with increasing instability we can`t rule
out a storm.  A slightly better chance for storms comes later Monday
into Tuesday as a cold front moves into our area.  With slightly
"cooler" air aloft and increased shower chances, highs will mainly
be in the 80s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 330 am Wed...IFR/MVFR early this morning will become VFR
by mid-morning. Sub-VFR in isolated showers through late
morning, then showers and thunderstorms will become numerous
this afternoon. Isolated hail/damaging winds possible.
Widespread rain and scattered thunder this evening with vsbys
and cigs lowering to MVFR. Precip will taper off from the west
after midnight. Surface winds will be from the southwest less
than 10 knots early this morning, backing to south 10-15 knots
this afternoon and continuing into tonight.

Long Term /Thu through Sun/
As of 330 am Wed...A few showers are possible over the
terminals Thursday, but we will remain mainly VFR despite these
chances. VFR expected Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 330 am Wed...A warm front has lifted north of the waters,
with a cold front approaching from the west tonight. Winds will
decrease temporarily through early afternoon, but then begin to
increase late in the day as pressure gradient tightens up once
again ahead of the approaching front. Made no changes to current
small craft advisories. Winds could gust to near gale force over
the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet after midnight, but
have capped winds at 30 knots for now.

Long Term /Thu through Sun/
As of 330 am Wed...Poor boating conditions Thursday into early
Friday, then a stark improvement over the waters just in time
for the Memorial Day weekend!

Southwest winds 20-30 Thursday and Thursday night will gradually
veer toward the west by daybreak Friday.  While we may see a brief
window where we approach gale conditions over the central waters off
of Cape Hatteras Thursday evening, most model guidance remains just
below gales and the duration would be less than 4 hours if it
materialized.  Seas will remain around 4 to 9 feet.

Friday will be the transition day as west winds 20-25 in the morning
will diminish to 15 knots by afternoon. Seas will take awhile to
subside so we will hold onto the small craft advisories through the
afternoon over the coastal waters with seas still above 6 feet
through most of the day.

Much improved conditions over the waters this weekend.  Winds
southwest Saturday through Monday, 10 to 15 knots.  Seas generally 2
to 4 feet this weekend.  Waves may build slightly Sunday into Monday
to 3 to 5 feet.  Wavewatch guidance seems too high with 6 foot waves
over our coastal waters, but winds still 15 knots or less we trimmed
the wave heights back a bit.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...HSA/EH
MARINE...HSA/EH


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