Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
702 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

High pressure will move offshore today and remain over the
Western Atlantic through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday morning. High pressure will build in behind the
front through the weekend.


As of 630 AM Mon...High pressure is shifting off the coast this
morning and will allow winds to become SE by this afternoon. A
coastal trof will develop this afternoon as the high slides
farther offshore. This will promote some isolated showers to
develop along the coastal counties with the best chance over the
OBX. The latest models showing a decreasing trends in POPs,
have decrease POPs to 20 percent. Mid to high clouds will filter
in from the west (ahead of a weak shortwave) during the morning
hours and then low clouds developing along the coastal area
coinciding with the coastal trof. A warming trends will start
again with temperature climbing up to the upper 60 to around 70
inland and low/mid 60 OBX.


As of 230 AM Mon...A weak shortwave will move through the area
late tonight...resulting in isolated to scattered showers late
tonight. Models remain having a good consensus with the coastal
water/OBX area receiving most of the rain showers. Continued
the mention of isolated showers for the rest of the areas as
models remain to have a disagreement. Tonight will be mild with
overnight lows in low/mid 50s inland to mid/upper 50s OBX.


As of 330 AM Monday...models appear in good agreement during
period. Main change with this forecast issuance was to increase
POPs to likely all zones Thursday night with decent short wave
energy and surface cold front moving across area. Overall
pattern warm but possibly wet conditions for Tuesday-early
Thursday period, then cooler and drier Thursday afternoon into
Saturday with warming again Sunday.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...models have come into slightly
better agreement with warm sector conditions prevailing as
surface high shifts offshore and warm front moves across west
and north of area. Weak shortwave energy will be moving across
in SW flow aloft and models continue to indicate scattered
precip threat, thus will continue low chance POPs for Tuesday
with slight chance Tuesday night. Temps will be well above
normal with highs into mid-upper 70s inland and around 70 coast.
Increasing SW winds and mostly cloudy skies will keep min temps
in lower 60s for Tuesday night (20 to 25 degrees above normal).

Wednesday...Guidance is good agreement that record warmth will
be possible with highs in the 80s as brisk southerly flow
prevails. Not expecting any significant precipitation although
an isolated shower can`t be ruled out. Some fire weather
concerns due to the warmth and expected strong winds but
forecast relative humidities are in the mid 50s which is well
above Red Flag criteria.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A strong cold front
will move across the region late Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. With models in better agreement in timing, increased
POPs to likely Wednesday night and ended precip threat sooner on
Thursday. Mild lows in the 50s are expected Wednesday night and
continued mild but cooler Thursday with highs in the mid 60s.
Colder air begins to be felt Thursday night with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday through Sunday...The models remain in decent agreement
for this period. A dry secondary cold cold front will cross the
area Friday with highs 55 to 60 expected then high pressure
with seasonably cool and dry air will prevail across the region
through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday night are
forecast to reach the lower to mid 30s and this could be a
concern for any sensitive vegetation that may have prematurely
started due to the abnormal warmth of the past couple of weeks.
Highs Saturday will be in the 50s and lows Saturday night
night in the mid to upper 30s. Dry weather is forecast to
continue Sunday but with some moderation in temperatures into
the 60s as the high center moves offshore and return SW flow
redevelops across the area.


Short term /through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 630 AM Monday...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the TAF period. High pressure is shifting off the Delmarva
Peninsula this morning, and will allow winds to become southeast
this afternoon. Mid to high clouds will start filtering into
the area from the west (ahead of a shortwave). Some stratus
clouds will move in from the coastal waters during the afternoon
and effect KEWN/KOAJ, but remain above 3kft. Winds will become
light overnight from the SSE and guidance is indicating possible
fog development for the inland TAF sites. At this time, its not
mentioned in TAF`s due to low confidence.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Sub VFR conditions possible in scattered
showers/tstms Tuesday as well as in moist S-SW flow Tuesday
night. VFR expected to prevail in warm sector conditions
Wednesday than a better chance of sub VFR with more widespread
shower/tstm coverage Wednesday night. Cooler and drier and
prevailing VFR expected Thursday-Friday.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Monday...Latest buoy obs are showing light ENE
winds over the coastal waters and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure
is currently sliding off the coast this morning as a weak
coastal trough develops this afternoon. Winds remain ENE most of
the day across the Pamlico sound though veer SE across the
coastal waters. This will promote isolated showers by this
afternoon across the waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas will remain
in the 2-4 feet and winds ranging 5-15 knots. Southernly winds
will increase tonight 15-20 knots as the gradient tightens with
seas responding. Seas will generally 2-4 ft with 5 footers along
the central waters.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Rough marine conditions with gusty winds
and elevated seas are expected for much of the period.
Increasing S-SW winds expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a low
end Gale possible late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds
shift to NW 15 to 20 kt behind the front Thursday morning and
diminish to W/NW 10 to 15 kt Thu afternoon and night behind the
initial cold front. A secondary cold front is forecast to cross
the waters Friday afternoon with the flow becoming NW and
increasing to 20 to 25 kt.

Seas expected to build to 6-7 feet outer waters Tuesday night,
peaking at 8-12 feet Wednesday night. Seas will briefly
subside below 6 ft Thursday night then build back to 4 to 7 ft
Friday afternoon.




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