Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 232336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
736 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure will continue south of the region through Monday. A
dry cold front will move offshore Monday night followed by high
pressure through the middle part of next week. A cold front will
approach from the west on Thursday and cross the area Friday. High
pressure will build over the region next weekend.


As of 730 PM Sunday...a ridge of high pressure extending over the
area from the southwest will slowly weaken tonight as a cold
front well to the N slowly approaches the area. We should have
enough of a gradient to keep a a light breeze inland with stronger
flow near the coast. Mixing will lead to a bit milder temps with
lows ranging from mid 40s cooler inland spots to mid/upr 50s OBX.


As of 230 PM Sunday...Dry cold front will approach from the NW
thru the morning then pass through the area in the aftn. Main
surge of cooler air will hold off til tomm evening so cont to
expect mild temps in the 75 to 80 dgr range with cont mainly sunny


As of 330 AM Sun...Long term period will feature mainly dry
conditions and more seasonably cool late October temperatures.
Next chance of showers does not arrive until late in the week.

Monday Night...Winds turn NW behind the dry front Mon night with
temps dropping back into the 40s (50s beaches).

Tuesday through Thursday...Seasonably cool conditions for this
period as Canadian high pres ridges into the region from the
north bringing high temps 65-70 under sunny skies. Night time
temps will be cool as ideal radiational cooling in place with
clear and calm conditions. Lows will be in the 40s across the
interior with 50s on the beaches.

Thursday Night into Friday...Maintained the chance of rain
showers for this period as next progressive short wave appears set
to translate across the Eastern CONUS. The 23/00Z operational GFS
continues to be a drier outlier with continued lack of support
from the CMC/ECMWF, as well as its NCEP ensemble mean. Bulk of the
energy should pass across the Mid Atlantic states so not expecting
too much rain with this system. Temps will warm back into the 70s
by day and 50s by night as return flow develops.

Saturday...Appears that heights/thicknesses do not fall all that
much behind the low amplitude progressive short wave and thus
temps appear like they will be above climo next weekend though at
this time conditions look to be on the dry side.


Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...High confidence of VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period and beyond. Dry high pressure will
continue to dominate the region and limit the development of fog
tonight. Light W to SW winds through much of the TAF period.
Continued potential for LLWS for KPGV/KISO as forecast soundings
are showing a brief increase of winds starting around 8z at around
2k ft.

Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...VFR SKC is expected over the area through
Thursday as dry high pressure prevails across the region. Winds
will be light through the period.


Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 730 PM changes with this update. With high pres
to the S and Low pres well to the N expect WSW winds at 10 to 20
kts overnight...highest central and N where some gusts 20 to 25
likely late. Dry cold front will cross the region later Mon with
flow becoming NW around 15 kts in the aftn. Seas will cont at
mainly 2 to 4 feet...however some 5 footers expected outer central
and nrn wtrs early this evening and again late tonight and early
Mon when winds peak.

Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Winds turn northerly and inc to 15-20 kt late
Mon night with marginal SCA conditions developing across the
northern and potentially central waters with the surge of N winds
building seas to around 6 ft. The winds and seas will diminish by
Tue afternoon as high pres begins to build in. The high will
remain north of the area through Thursday with NE winds generally
10-15 kt. Winds will turn E then SE late Thursday in advance of
next cold front.




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