Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 161408
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1008 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE SATURDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1010 AM WED...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL CHILLY
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BEING
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE CARTERET COUNTY AND THE OUT BANKS AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AND CAA. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
TODAY...LOWERING OF THE THICKNESS...TEMPS WILL BE REACHING TO THE
LOW/MID 50S INLAND AND UPPER 40S OVER OBX

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM WED... DRY AND CHILLY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPS
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND AND
LOW/MID 40S OVER OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 AM WED...SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF NORTHER CAROLINA. CAA IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE LATE FRIDAY AS ECMWF CUTS A LOW OFF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHILE GFSENS MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVES IT OFF THE
FL EAST COAST WITH A WEAKER TROUGH BEING DEVELOPED BY THE GFS. AS
PER PMDHMD...GFS UNDERDEVELOPED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. WIND SPEED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE
TRACK...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.

LOW EXPECTED TO LIFE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA ON MONDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS FOR
RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...KEPT
CONDITIONS AS VFR WITH SCT DECK AROUND 2500 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM WED...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. EASTERN TAFS MAY HAVE SUB VFR AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THIS LOW AFFECTS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM WED...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING IN THE
MID 30S KT AND SEAS UP TO 11 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 40-45KT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS TODAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNINGS
FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...AND SCA FOR THE RIVERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE TODAY...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BREAKING WAVES OF 9 FT
NEAR SHORE. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM WED...TIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...WIND AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM WED...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED AS A
STRONG N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL
MOON. WITH N/NE TODAY... SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT
TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE
PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY. WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE AND HYDE. WINDS DO
NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS DECREASE BELOW
GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO
SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.
THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS A MODERATE NNE
FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ095-
     103-104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-131-135-
     150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG/CTC
AVIATION...CGG/BM
MARINE...HSA/BM/CGG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BM






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