Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 311111
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
711 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A FRONT OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 633 AM THU...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING AS DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS FROM SYSTEM MOVING FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO
STREAM INTO NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND IT. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL GIVE EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED MOISTURE SO PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER DEBRIS CLOUD FROM A SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST WILL
KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 156 AM THU...INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE WILL START TO
RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW SOON IT WILL AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS AGREEING ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION
TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. NAM IS THE OUTLIER ON BRINGING THE FRONT
BACK WEST MUCH SLOWER AND ON HOLDING OFF ON PRECIPITATION TIL MUCH
LATER. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST...AND WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH SHARPENING
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE THUR NIGHT...WHILE
NAM/GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCE POPS
ADVERTISED. ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUICKLY FRI AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP
GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
PWATS RISE TO 2 INCHES OR GREATER...WITH INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST AND FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. TEMPS WILL BE HELD
DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AREA STILL IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...AND
THEREFORE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE. THE
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK.

ECMWF/WPC QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES. WITH MUCH OF EASTERN NC HAVING
RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...WITH PLACES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CRYSTAL COAST AREAS
AT 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SO FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST MATERIALIZES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 638 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND FRONT WELL OFFSHORE
GIVING EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA. BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 25K WITH SOME AREAS DOWN TO 10K FEET AS DEBRIS CLOUDS STREAM
OVER AREA TAFS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN TX/LA. SOME AFTERNOON CU
THIS AFTERNOON. PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. FRONT OFFSHORE WILL START TO RETROGRADE TONIGHT WITH
MODELS NOT ON GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
HAVE PUT VCSH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD JUST AS A LEAD INTO
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBVFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE REGION IN FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM THU...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING 10 KNOTS OF LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL OFFSHORE WILL GIVE THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS EAST AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE KEEPING WIND 10
TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST...BRINGING WIND DIRECTION MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH SPEEDS REMAINING 10 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...THE FRONT OFFSHORE RETREATS WESTWARD AS A
COASTAL TROUGH FRIDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER BRINGING
THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE GFS/NAM
CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH
LATER FRI. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN FORM OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB SCA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/CQD
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CGG/CQD/SK
MARINE...CGG/CQD









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