Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 052012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
312 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

Weak low pressure will move well offshore tonight. Another area of
low pressure will move across the area Tuesday and move offshore
Tuesday night. A strong cold front will move through late
Thursday, followed by cold high pressure Friday into Saturday.


As of 305 PM Monday, low pressure continue to move away from our
northern coast as high pressure ridges into the area from the Ohio
Valley. Skies have cleared from the north and west this afternoon
ahead of next area of low pressure that will move northeast from
the western Gulf of Mexico region. Leading edge of light
precipitation has now moved into far western South Carolina and
models have decent agreement showing bulk of precipitation
arriving around midnight. PoPs have been ramped up accordingly
from chance this evening to likely/categorical after midnight,
highest over the S/SW CWA. Low temperatures tonight should be in
the 45 to 50 degree range.


As of 305 PM Monday, as surface low traverses eastern NC Tuesday,
expect widespread light to moderate rain. Think amounts will be
similar to the event from last year, with 1-2 inches possible per
latest guidance, heaviest over southern and western counties.
Highs will range from the lower 50s far northwestern areas to
lower 60s coast. Looks like precipitation should cut off from
southwest to northeast and end in most areas between 21z and 00z
Weds as low exits off the Delmarva Peninsula.


As of 215 AM Mon...A strong cold front will cross late Thu with
cold temps Fri through the weekend.

Tuesday Night...Good cold air advection will develop in the wake
of the exiting low leading to lows in the lower 40s inland to
lower 50s beaches.

Wed and Wed Night...Dry with seasonal temps as weak high pres quickly
crosses. Highs Wed upr 50s to around 60 with lows Wed night lower
40s inland to upr 40s/around 50 OBX.

Thu through Sunday...Cold front with limited moisture will cross
late Thu/Thu evening cont slight chc to low chc of shra with
front. High temps ahead of front Thu will be in the upr 50s to
lower 60s. Main story will be cold air assoc with strong high pres
building in behind front Fri thru Sat...highs both days mainly
low to mid 40s with lows Fri night and Sat night reaching couple
dgrs either side of 25 inland to lower/mid 30s beaches. As the
high begins to slide E on Sunday temps and moisture will increase
with high around 50 inland to near 60 coast. Slight chc of shra
poss mainly coast as moisture increases.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1245 PM Mon...High confidence of VFR conditions to continue
through this evening. A few lingering low clouds should erode away
as weak high pressure builds into the area. Conditions will start
to deteriorate again overnight as the high pressure shifts
northeast and another sfc low over the Gulf of Mexico lifts into
the Tenn. Valley. Rain showers will start late tonight, but the
heavier rain will occur overnight with conditions dropping down to
IFR around 8/9z and continuing through most of the day.

Long Term /Tue Night through Friday/...
As of 215 AM Mon...Rain will end as the low departs offshore Tue
night however fcst soundings indicate low lvls will remain
saturated with IFR cigs much of the night. High pres builds in Wed
and slides offshore Wed night with dry weather and VFR expected
once low clouds lift early Wed. A strong cold front with limited
moisture will cross late Thu or Thu evening and dont think will be
much precip with cont VFR. Cold high pres will build in thru Fri
with clearing skies and gusty NW winds.


Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Monday, gusty N/NE winds 15-20 knots continue across
the northern waters with seas around 6 feet at Diamond Buoy and
likely offshore of the northern waters this afternoon. Will
continue SCA through midnight for these areas. As next surface low
tracks inland from the western Gulf of Mexico region into the
Carolinas tonight and Tuesday, gradient tightens and seas build to
SCA range by early afternoon Tuesday over the southern waters and
have issued a new SCA from Ocracoke South starting at 18Z Tuesday
extended into late Wednesday evening. Another SCA will be needed
for the northern waters as gusty winds/rough seas occur behind
departing low Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday morning.

Long Term /Tue Night through Friday/...
As of 215 AM Mon...As the low departs to the NE Tue night into
Wed will have a period of gusty NW winds keeping seas
elevated...espcly outer central and northern waters. High pres
builds in Wed and moves offshore early Thu with light winds and
seas subsiding to 2 to 4 feet by first part of Thu. Gusty W winds
develop later Thu ahead of cold front then become NW and remain
gusty later Thu night and Fri behind the front with strong CAA.
SCA a good bet most waters later Thu night into Fri.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ150-152-
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ156-158.



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