Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 240802
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
402 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front along the south coast this morning will gradually
push south of the area through tonight. Strong high pressure
will build in from the north Friday through Sunday. An area of
low pressure is forecast to develop along the stalled frontal
boundary off the Florida coast Sunday and slowly lift northeast
along the Southeast coast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Wind shift with frontal boundary has
made it to southern coastal sections while main precipitation
bands have shifted well east and south of area. Surge of
slightly drier air with NE winds 10-15 KT just moving into
northern sections and followed GFS/ECMWF blend with front
gradually pushing south during the day and NE winds spreading
across most of area by late afternoon. Models continue to
indicate at least scattered shower/isolated tstm activity for
mainly along and east of Hwy 17 through the day and went with
POPS 20% inland to 40% coast. Debris cloudiness from convection
to south along with developing N-NE winds in low levels will
produce cloudy skies early this morning, then some gradual
decrease in cloud cover expected from north to south during the
day. Max temps mainly low-mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Short wave energy with mean upper trough
moving across to north will continue to produce scattered
shower/isolated tstm threat over eastern sections overnight.
Secondary cool air surge will allow temps to drop to mid 60s
inland with lower 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Below normal temps expected through the
period. Unsettled wx expected late weekend into next week with
the potential for tropical low development along the SE coast,
though much uncertainty remains regarding this system.

Friday through Saturday...Strong high pressure will build in
from the north with broad upper troughing across the area,
while stalled frontal boundary lingers off the SE coast.
Isolated showers Fri and Fri night, with best chances off the
southern coast. Isolated showers possible Sat with best chances
along the coast as low begins to strengthen off the FL coast.
Low level thickness values and NE flow support below normal
temps with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the low/mid 60s inland and mid 60s/70 degrees along the
coast.

Sunday through Wednesday...Models continue to show possible
tropical low development along the stalled frontal boundary off
the SE coast this weekend into the middle of next week...though
much uncertainty remains on how this system will evolve, given
how far out in time and varying model solutions/lack of run to
run consistency. Low is forecast to strengthen off the FL coast
Sat night and Sun, slowly lifting NE Mon through Wed. Looking at
the 00z guidance suite, the CMC brings it closest to the NC
coast, with the ECMWF then closer than the GFS. Precip chances
increase Sun through Tue as low lifts northeastward, with best
chances along the coast. Models also continue to show the
remnants of Harvey interacting with a frontal boundary over the
Gulf Coast region, and pushing east/northeast mid to late next
week. A lot of uncertainty with how this system will evolve as
well. High temps through the period, generally in the upper 70s
to low 80s, with overnight lows 60-70 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Friday/
As of 145 AM Thursday...Leading edge of cold front boundary has
made it through TAF sites and main precipitation bands have
moved well south and east of area. Lingering low level moisture
and cool air advection inversion in wake of front will produce
period of IFR CIGs all TAF sites through 12Z with some lifting
of CIGs to MVFR at times. Continued advection of slightly drier
air will lead to CIGs lifting to mainly VFR by 15Z. Scattered
shower/isolated tstm threat will linger for eastern TAF sites
through this evening. Winds will become NE 5-10 KT all sites by
late morning.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Predominant VFR conditions expected through
the period. Could see some isolated showers Saturday through
Monday, with best chances at EWN and OAJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...Cold front has made it to southern
waters and will continue to gradually push south through
tonight. Main adjustment with this forecast issuance was to
lean to GFS with surge of NE winds 10-15 KT expected to push
across waters a bit faster today, reaching southern waters by
late afternoon. Secondary surge of NE winds will produce speeds
10-15 KT over all waters again late tonight.

Seas will build to 3-4 ft northern waters this morning while
southern waters expected to subside to 2-3 feet, but then build
back to 3-4 ft tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thu...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to
develop this weekend and continue into next week, with the
potential for tropical low development along the southeast
coast.

Strong high pressure will build in from the north Friday through
Sunday. Models continue to show the potential for tropical low
development along the stalled frontal boundary off the SE coast
this weekend into early next week. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty given how far out in time and the varying model
solutions and lack of run to run consistency. NE winds 10-20 kt
Fri and Fri night with seas 2-4 ft. NE winds expected to
increase to 15-25 kt Sat. NE/E winds increase to 20-25 kt Sunday
and Monday, though could be stronger depending on low
track/strength. NWPS and Wavewatch in fairly good agreement with
seas 3-5 ft Sat morning, gradually building from south to
north, becoming 4-6 ft late Sat, 5-8 ft Sunday and 6-10 ft
Monday. Will cap seas at 10 ft for now given the uncertainty.

Given the uncertainty on how this system will evolve, mariners
should continue to monitor the forecast over the next several
days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD/HSA
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...JBM/CQD



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