Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280831
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
431 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest today and move
through late tonight. High pressure will build in from the
north late Wednesday into Thursday. A warm front will move
through from the southwest Friday. A cold front will move
through early Saturday. Another cold front will approach the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...A mid level shortwave will approach from
the west this morning and move into eastern NC this afternoon
while the sfc low reflection tracks into the mid Atlantic
states with the trailing cold front moving into the western
NC this afternoon. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are
presently moving across the western piedmont and will slowly
push eastward through the morning. The 00z hi-res models lift
these showers north with little QPF across eastern NC until mid
to late afternoon however the HRRR has been trending wetter over
the past several runs bringing these showers into the coastal
plain late this morning and to the coast early this afternoon. A
stronger pre-frontal line of convection is expected to push
into the region late this afternoon, mainly after 3pm, and push
off the coast around mid evening. Sufficient moisture (PW around
1.25" and Td in the upper 50s) with bulk shear increasing to
40-50kt could bring strong to marginally severe wind gusts and
hail with this line if sufficient instability is realized,
however the mid day showers and clouds may limit the instability
keeping the storms sub-severe and as such SPC has kept the
region in a marginal risk of severe today. Moderate SW flow
continues to bring much above normal temps with highs expected
around 75-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...The aforementioned line of convection
expected across the region early this evening will push offshore
around 9-10pm with the cold front pushing through after
midnight. Expect a clearing trend late evening and after
midnight but models are suggesting northerly flow will bring
sufficient low level moisture beneath the low level inversion
for a stcu deck to push into northern sections late tonight.
Lows will continue to be several degrees above normal mainly in
the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Dry weather will prevail Wednesday and
Thursday with another round of showers and thunderstorms, with
possible heavy rain Friday into early Saturday.

Wednesday through Thursday...Ridging at the surface and in the
mid-levels will keep the region dry with a N/NE wind flow
providing slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday Night and
Thursday. A downsloping NW flow will actually keep temperatures
quite warm for Wednesday with highs well into the 70s
inland...but remaining in the lower 60s over northern Outer
Banks. Wednesday will be chilly with lows generally in the upper
40s. Thursday will feature decent cold-air advection with highs
in the low/mid 60s...except chilly mid 50s over the northern
Outer Banks.

Thursday night through Saturday...Moisture will start to spread
east from the mountains Thursday night with a few showers
reaching the far western CWA toward morning Friday. A deep 500
mb trough which will become negatively tilted...coupled with
advection of deep moisture into eastern NC ahead of cold front
will lead to a rather wet Friday and have continued previous
forecasts of likely PoPs Friday into Friday night. QPF totals
could top an inch or better in some spots. Will continue mention
of thunder in the forecast for Friday. Instability is lacking in
the latest model runs...but with negatively tilted upper trough
and plentiful moisture...a few thunderstorms will be quite
possible. Highs Friday will range from the mid 60s Outer Banks
to lower 70s inland.

Saturday night through Monday...Dry conditions are expected
Saturday night through Sunday night with mid-level ridge to
again build over eastern NC with surface ridging from the north.
The next system will start to lift out of Texas and provide a
small chance of rain by Monday afternoon with better chances
into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 2AM Tuesday...Generally VFR expected this morning with a
mid level cloud deck and light mixing preventing fog
development. An area of showers with a few embedded tstms is
progged move into the region late this morning and may bring
brief periods of sub- VFR conditions but confidence is low in
how much they hold together as they move into eastern NC. A
stronger line of pre- frontal convection is expected mid
afternoon through the early evening hours that could bring
strong wind gusts and hail if sufficient instability is
realized. Improving conditions expected late evening, however we
could see a low stcu deck advect into northern sections late
tonight. SW winds expected to gust to around 15-20kt this
afternoon.

Long Term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...With ridging in place at the surface and
in the mid- levels...expect VFR conditions to prevail Wednesday
and Thursday. Widespread sub-VFR conditions are likely Friday
and Friday night as numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
will occur with slow-moving cold front. Improving conditions to
mostly VFR late Saturday and Sunday with surface and mid-level
ridge again building over eastern NC.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...S/SW winds around 5-15kt this morning
expected to increase to 10-20kt this afternoon ahead of a cold
front. The front progged to push across the waters after
midnight with winds becoming W/NW late. Seas expected around
4-6ft across the central and southern waters today and build up
to 7 ft tonight with contribution from swell produced by a low
pressure area lifting north across the western Atlantic. Will
continue the SCA for the waters south of Oregon Inlet.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Small Craft Advisories will still be
ongoing south of Oregon Inlet Wednesday morning and continuing
into Thursday as non-tropical low pressure moves northeast from
the Bahamas and sends swell energy toward the coast. Seas will
subside Thursday night before increasing from south Friday and
Friday night ahead of next cold front. Southerly winds Friday
will increase to 20-25 knots before veering to Westerly behind
the front on Saturday. Seas build to as high as 8-9 feet,
especially central waters Friday evening through Saturday as SCA
conditions prevail.

.&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK



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