Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 302337
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...ADDED ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR NE SECTIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND VERIFYING SFC OBS INDICATE
PATCHY VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WITH DIMINISHING CAA SCU
FIELD. BREEZY CONDITIONS KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY AND
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...CLOUDS OVER ERN TIER WILL GRAD SLIDE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN AND DISSIPATE WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NW
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THRU SUNSET ALL AREAS AND CONT ALL NIGHT FOR
THE COAST. OVER INLAND AREAS WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT NOT COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 20S COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO UPR
20S BEACHES. APPARENT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND OVER THE AREA. ATMS IS VERY DRY AND
EXPECT CLR SKIES THRU MID DAY AND THEN WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE. LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTN AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MSUNNY SKIES
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 45 TO 50 DGR RANGE MOST AREAS...WITH
AROUND 40 FOR NE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL FEATURE A ROLLER
COASTER TEMP REGIME WITH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REPRESENT A
NON- DIURNAL TREND AS FLOW BACKS WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING MODERATE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. LOWS IN THE
20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF AND BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC AND INCREASING THICKNESSES YIELDING MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS HAS IMPROVED FURTHER FOR THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN VA/MD/DE
MONDAY MORNING. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS 850MB SW JET
INC TO 60+ KT BY EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S REALIZED EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
RISING TO THE MID/UPPER 50S PRIOR TO SUNRISE. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S REALIZED EARLY
IN THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE 40S. COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
NE POTIONS OF THE FA EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE PRECIP COMPLETELY
ENDS THOUGH NO IMPACTS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC MON EVENING WITH SURGE
OF GUSTY NW WINDS USHERING COLD TEMPS MON NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW
20S (NEAR 30 OBX) WILL COMBINE WITH THE NW WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
FALL TO AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
SOUTH OVER THE REGION FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO DEVELOP.

30/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEM
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES AREA OVER THE GOM WED AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST WED INTO THUR. HOWEVER A GLANCE AT
THE GFSENS MEAN INDICATES VERY LARGE SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO MSLP
DURING THIS TIME FRAME OWING TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN. ECMWF
HAS NO GULF LOW AND A DEEPER ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THUR
WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
CONTINUED DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE MID WEEK. WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS LURKING JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL WINTRY
WEATHER...THOUGH NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS LONG RANGE AND ONLY
ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IT TO MOM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SKC FOR TAF SITES
THROUGH PERIOD. CAA SCU WILL AFFECT NE PORTIONS OF AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE REST OF PERIOD WITH STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM NW. GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND GRADUALLY BACK TO W SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W AND THEN NW
MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON EVENING BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SAT/...
AS OF 600 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE. CURRENT OBS INDICATE
WINDS AND GUSTS BELOW 30 KT...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA WILL DEVELOP
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG PRES RISES UPSTREAM AND OBS OF GUSTS 30
TO 40 KT OVER CHES BAY...THUS WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING MOST OF
AREA WITH SCA ALB SOUND AND RIVERS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS 225 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TONIGHT KEEPING GRDNT TIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHLD PEAK
AROUND 6Z WITH SPEEDS 25 TO 35 KTS. WILL CONT CURRENT HEADLINES
HOWEVER GALES ARE LOOKING MARGINAL FOR SRN TIER AND POSS PAMLICO
SOUND. BLENDED WAVEWATCH AND SWAN FOR SEAS AS SWAN TENDS TO BE
TOO HIGH WITH NW WIND EVENTS...STILL SHLD SEE 8 TO 10 FEET FAR
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THE HIGH WILL BUILD TWRD THE COAST
SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KTS DURING THE
AFTN. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 6 FT FAR
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS THRU THE DAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH
THE WATERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST LATE SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SW WINDS INC TO SCA LEVELS...POSSIBLY GALES IN THE
OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS MON AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
NW BY MON EVENING. GALES LOOK PROBABLY MON EVENING FOR ALL THE
WATERS AND POTENTIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUNDS AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRES TO THE NORTH PULLS DOWN STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY ESP NORTHERN/CENTRAL LEGS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THE GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT
IN LOWER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS FOR WRN PAMLICO SOUND AND ADJACENT
RIVERS AND ABOVE NORMAL WATER ON SOUND SIDE OF OBX. AT THIS TIME
APPEARS WATER LEVEL CHANGES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 FEET
AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-136-
     137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...RF/TL /JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD...RF






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