Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 300810
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW PRES AREA
WELL TO THE S OFF THE SC COAST WITH TROF EXTENDING NE OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES AREA ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE
LOOKOUT HELPING TO GENERATE AND BRING ISOLD SHRA TO THE COAST FM
HAT S TO NEAR LOOKOUT. CONT ISOLD POPS FOR THESE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING AS 00Z MODELS DO SHOW SOME QPF ALONG SRN
COASTAL AREAS. PATCHY ST AND FOG POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH
8 AM. EASTERN NC WILL BE BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE NW AND A SFC LOW
TO THE SOUTH. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE AND SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH
EAST...CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
MID/UPR LVL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE IMMEDIATE SRN COASTAL AREAS WHERE ISOLD SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING ASSOCD WITH THE SFC LOW S OF
LOOKOUT. THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW SECTIONS
UNTIL LTR TNGT SO PRECIP CHCS INLAND WILL BE NIL TODAY. ANOTHER
WARM DAY ON TAP WITH LOW 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPR 80S COASTAL
LOCATIONS. AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST ESPECIALLY CENTRAL INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NW TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT PROVIDING
SOME FOCUS FOR PRECIP ALBEIT SLIGHT. CONT WITH LOW POPS NW AND NRN
AREAS STARTING DURG THEN INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL THE MAIN SFC LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE SW AND COMES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOWS ARE TO
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS INLAND AREAS TO THE MID AND UPR 70S
ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WED...A TROUGHY PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THEN DRIER WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED TO THE COAST AND STALLED BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT...ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LOWER CONFIDENC FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH JUST 20 POPS...AND RETAINED 30-40
POPS FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED PER 17 G/KG OR HIGHER MIX
RATIOS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
POSITIONING AND AMPLITUDE OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND STALLED SFC
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...WITH THE 30/00Z GFS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
SYSTEM...KEEPING THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH PROLONGED PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE FEEDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF. THE CMC IS A FAIR COMPROMISE KEEPING JUST THE COASTAL AREAS
IN A RAIN THREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF WPC AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST LEANING MORE HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECM...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARDS TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THESE AREAS REMAINING MAINLY
DRY. 30-50 POPS CONFINED TO COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
COAST. THE ECM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BRINGING HEAVY SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL NOT CHANGE OR INCREASE POPS DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS...AND CONTINUE 30-50 POPS...HIGHEST FAR EASTERN
AREAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...QUESTIONS REMAIN ON WHETHER TROUGHY
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SE CONUS...WITH ECM HINTING AT
ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH GFS
CONTINUES TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT IN A
SMALL CHANCE POP FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT /...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY CLR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL FAVOR TEMPS REACHING DEWPTS FM ABT 08Z-12Z.
MDLS SHOW MINIMAL CONDENSATION PRESS DEFICITS IN LOW LEVELS
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST TO DEVELOP ESPCLY SRN TIER. WILL
CONT TRENDS IN PREV FCST WITH S/SW TIER (OAJ/ISO) HAVING BEST SHOT
FOR IFR CONDS. ANY FOG/ST DOES SHUD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY THEN VFR CONDS AFT 12Z WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE
MORN AND AFTN ARND 5K FT. ISOLD CONVECTION PSBL AFT 00Z-06Z TONIGHT
FOR PGV PSBLY ISO BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS. PATCHY LATE ST/F
WILL BE PSBL AGAIN.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST
OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCT THUNDERSHOWERS AND POTENTIAL TEMPO SUB
VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY KEWN AND KOAJ. RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THURSDAY...WINDS CURRENTLY LIGHT NW...W OF LOOKOUT AND
SE-E EAST OF LOOKOUT WITH A WEAK SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF OF THE
AREA. SEAS CONT 2-4 FT HIGHEST CNTRL COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO THE NW AND THE MAIN SFC LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF
OF THE SC COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME S-SE 5-15 KT DURING THE
AFTN THRUT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT DURG THE LATE AFTN ACRS
THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AS SLY SWELL ENERGY BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
SRN AREAS. MAIN CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO INITIATE SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM HAT S THIS EVE CONTG FOR THE WATERS S OF
LOOKOUT THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY MORNING AND 1 PM FRI AFTN ASSOCD WITH
THE SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SEAS WILL BUILD TO
4-6 FT ACRS THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-5 FT N
OF HAT TONIGHT

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...SOME 6 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING WITH
LARGER SWELL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS AS LOW PRES
MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND STALL THERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...WITH
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...ESP BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/TL
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/TL
MARINE...JAC/TL



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