Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 191145
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...MID LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE AND EXPECT
MSUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

PREV DISC...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING TO THE N WILL CONT TO PRODUCE SCT
TO BKN MID CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. THE MID LVLS DRY
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN AND EXPECT MSUNNY SKIES AS SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND 850 TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY AND EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM MID/UPR 40S
NE TO LOW/MID 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO THE N THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BROAD/WEAKENING UPR TRF APPROACHES FROM THE W. MCLR
SKIES THRU THE EVENING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO 30 TO 35 DGR
RANGE MOST AREAS...LATER MDLS SHOW INCREASING MAINLY MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS LIKELY LEVELING
OFF. WEAK LOWER LVL ISENT LIFT BEGINS LATE BUT TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIP.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF/DEEP SOUTH
REGION SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE SAT AND SUN. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
DECREASE POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRIER MODEL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
SAT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SAT EVENING...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED
MOST OF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S/MID 40S. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN UP THE NC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS INCREASE TUE AND WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION TUE
NIGHT/WED...AND MODELS DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF TSTMS TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 17. EXPECT TO SEE
A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED...WITH MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE WED MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH IT REMAINS
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
GIVEN THE SETUP AND STRONG DYNAMICS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH STRONG
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA.

DRY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH BREEZY WLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM FRI...PATCHY FOG AT PGV WILL BE GONE SHORTLY OTHERWISE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. PATCHY MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES REST OF THE DAY. PRED MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BUT ANY PRECIP SHLD
HOLD OFF TIL SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT AND SUN. THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR SAT WITH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL BE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES UP THE SE
COAST. SUB-VFR CEILINGS COULD LINGERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRI...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW TODAY AND
BECOME CENTERED TO THE N LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT LIGHT MAINLY NW WINDS
WILL BECOME N AT MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS LATER TODAY AND CONT AT THAT
SPEED THRU TONIGHT. SEAS WL CONT AT 1 TO 3 FEET SRN TIER...OVER
CNTRL AND NRN WTRS MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER PORTIONS
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH
SAT...THEN MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SFC LOW WEAKER AND FURTHER
SUPPRESSED OFF THE COAST...LIMITING THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE WATERS.
N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT AND 10-20KT SUN. WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS 2-4FT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
E/NE WINDS 10-20KT SUN NIGHT BECOMING MORE SE/SLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST CHANCES FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL
BE MONDAY AS WEAK LOW MOVES ALONG THE NC COAST. COULD SEE SEAS
BUILD TO 6FT ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH E/SE WIND GUSTS TO 25KT.
WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/E OF THE AREA TUE...AND EXPECT
WINDS 15KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD










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