Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 052059
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND EVOLVE INTO AND OPEN SHORTWAVE.
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL REMAIN INTACT WHILE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.

ONGOING STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN WILL WEAKEN AND FURTHER DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 67 TO 71 DEGREES INLAND
AREAS AND FROM 71 TO 75 DEGREES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 86 TO 92 DEGREES.
/22

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL DROP RAIN CHANCES BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALONG WITH THE LOWER RAIN
CHANCES...TEMPS WILL ALSO CLIMB AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. AS A RESULT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RISE BACK TO AROUND 100 BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
05.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REDUCED CIGS TO MVFR
LEVELS...VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO IFR LEVELS...AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY. /22

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS COULD RESULT IN INCREASED WIND SHIFTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  90  74  91  75 /  30  30  05  20  05
PENSACOLA   73  88  76  90  76 /  30  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      74  87  78  88  78 /  20  40  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   67  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  20  10
WAYNESBORO  69  92  72  93  72 /  30  30  10  20  05
CAMDEN      69  91  72  92  73 /  40  40  20  20  05
CRESTVIEW   67  91  72  92  73 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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