Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 291136 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
29.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...A FEW SHRA/TSRA MAY MOVE ACROSS KPNS THIS
MORNING IN OFF THE GULF. CIGS MOSTLY AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS RESULTING
IN VFR CATEGORIES. VSBY OK. HOWEVER...A REDUCTION TO MVFR CATEGORIES
FOR BOTH EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY. AWAY FROM
CONVECTION...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A COASTAL TROF NEAR THE
AREA THIS MORNING BECOMES SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE
LOW. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WHERE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
IS MORE DIFFLUENT AND LAYER LIFT IS MAXIMIZED...POCKETS OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS => ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WERE OBSERVED OFF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST.

UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...LIFTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION...WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THE HIGHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND BETTER SUPPORT IS ALIGNED. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT LOOKS
TO BE A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
STORMS MAY BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM GREENVILLE ALABAMA TO NAVARRE BEACH
FLORIDA. OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AT TIMES...PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...A
FEW COULD REACH THESE LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OF THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO TAPER OFF FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS LOW

DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO MID 70S COAST. /10

[SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN
ALABAMA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

EXPECTING VERY LITTLE REGARDING RAINFALL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ERIKA. FOR NOW...EXPECT ONLY A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(20 PERCENT) NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER ALABAMA TO DESTIN
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER ON MONDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE HUGGING THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AS ERIKA MOVES INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 88 TO 93
DEGREES...EXPECT FOR MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 TO 73 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 70 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MOVE ERIKA NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...AND NOW MAKING LANDFALL
JUST WEST OF ALLIGATOR POINT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ERIKA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
ERIKA...WE NOW EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER
80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTS IN A SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE DAY...BECOMING MORE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK THROUGH MONDAY. HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH RESPECT TO ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS CONTINUED MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT...STAYING SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. ERIKA IS A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IF THE SYSTEM
SURVIVES...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO LIFT UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
LATE SUNDAY...WHILE TURNING MORE NORTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. CONSIDERING THE LATEST FORECAST...MAY BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE LATEST ON TRACK...ADVISORIES...AND DISCUSSIONS REGARDING
ERIKA...REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
/10

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  05  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  88  73  90 /  30  10  10  05  20
DESTIN      88  76  89  75  90 /  60  10  10  05  20
EVERGREEN   90  68  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
WAYNESBORO  91  66  91  68  92 /  20  10  10  05  10
CAMDEN      89  67  90  69  92 /  40  20  20  05  20
CRESTVIEW   91  68  89  70  91 /  60  20  20  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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