Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 280844
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
344 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday night/...For the first two periods of
the forecast, TD2 meanders slowly north along the Florida Atlantic
seaboard. Shortwave energy sweeps around the base and eastern side
of an upper system over the central/northern plains. The subsidence
from TD2 has shifted east of the area, though an upper ridge
stretching north along the Atlantic coast that TD2 is embedded in
continues to show subsidence in the soundings from surrounding
offices. For the forecast, subsidence from the ridge will keep temps
close to seasonal today. The passing shortwave energy combined with
abundant moisture over the Lower Mississippi River Valley will bring
precip, mainly to the northwestern portion of the area today as the
better subsidence from the upper ridge suppresses convection. Western
portions may see a few residual shra/tsra in the evening, but am
expecting mostly daytime activity. /16

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Through Monday night/...An upper trof extending
from the Great Lakes into the extreme southeast states dampens while
shifting eastward through the period, becoming aligned along the east
coastal states. Broad upper ridging meanwhile persists over the
southern plains and western Gulf, with a series of shortwaves
advancing eastward across the central Gulf coastal states. A light
northerly flow prevails over the area on Sunday and Monday, except
for a southerly flow developing over the southern portion of the area
with the afternoon sea breeze. Have opted to continue with slight
chance pops over the interior western portion of the area Sunday
afternoon, where expected subsidence associated with a system near
the Carolinas will be weakest. Have continued with slight chance pops
for the entire area for Monday as the aforementioned system weakens.
Highs will range from the lower 90s inland to the upper 80s near the
coast. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 60s inland to upper
60s closer to the coast, then lows Monday night will be near 70
inland with lower 70s closer to the coast. /29

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...An upper trof advances across
the central states and evolves into a longwave trof while continuing
into the eastern states on Friday. A light southerly flow ensues over
the forecast area on Tuesday and continues through Thursday as a
surface ridge becomes established over the northern Gulf. A surface
low well to the north, associated with the upper trof, brings a
trailing cold front across the Plains meanwhile, with the frontal
boundary expected to move into or near the forecast area on Friday.
Have continued with slight chance pops for Tuesday and Wednesday, the
pops trend upwards to chance to good chance pops by Friday as the
front nears and possibly enters the forecast area. Highs will be
mostly in the lower 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, except for upper
80s near the coast, then moderate through the end of the work week,
with highs on Friday mostly in the upper 80s inland with mid 80s near
the coast. Lows each night will be near 70 inland with lower 70s
near the coast. /29

&&

.MARINE...The surface low from TD2 meandering north along the Florida
Atlantic coast disrupts a surface ridge stretching west over the
northern Gulf coast tonight through Sunday. This will switch a
general southeasterly flow to a light northeasterly. With a surface
high rebuilding over the north-central Gulf of Mex Sunday into
Monday, a west to northwest flow over the marine area results,
lasting into mid week, when the surface ridge shifts over the
northeastern Gulf. This will bring a return of onshore flow mid week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  67  90  68 /  20   0  10  10
Pensacola   86  71  90  72 /  20   0  10  10
Destin      85  73  87  73 /  20  10  10  10
Evergreen   87  66  92  66 /  20  10  10  10
Waynesboro  88  66  90  65 /  30  10  20  10
Camden      87  66  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
Crestview   88  66  94  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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