Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 140533 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1133 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions through 15.06z. Winds will be
southwest at 4 to 8 kts through 14.08z becoming west to northwest
through 14.22z then diminishing to the less than 5 kts through
15.06z. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...VFR conditions through 15.00z. Winds will be
southwest at 4 to 8 kts through 14.06z becoming west to northwest
through 15.00z. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...A surface ridge of high
pressure holds over the Gulf tonight while next frontal boundary
eases southward across the Lower Mississippi River Delta. The
front continues southward through the day Thursday, becoming
aligned over the heart of the forecast area by late in the day.
Deep layer moisture continues to be very low for any frontal
ascent approaching from the north to work with, so will leave
precipitation out of the forecast. /10

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A cool and
generally dry weather pattern expected to persist through Saturday
night. A weak cold front should approach from the north Thursday
night and push offshore by Friday morning. Expect any measurable
precipitation to remain offshore but can`t rule out a few
sprinkles perhaps Friday morning. An onshore flow redevelops
Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. Temperatures will trend a near to a little cooler than
normal. /08

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Global spectral models
diverge with the strength and the timing of the major shortwave
trough and associated surface frontal system expected to bring a
bout of wet weather to the area by Sunday. ECMWF is far more
progressive with this system as a cut off low develops in the base
of the upper level trough and is left spinning over the
Pacific...west of Baja California...while the more northward
.mid-latitude open wave propagates relatively quickly eastward
bringing precipitation to the area Sunday through Sunday night
then shifting it eastward. The GFS never fully cuts off the upper
level low and continues to propagate the closed low more slowly
eastward keeping rain chances over the region through at least
Tuesday. Trended the forecast toward the highest potential of
precipitation Sunday into Sunday night with the possibility of
some embedded thunderstorms depending on the strength of the upper
level forcing...most of the rainfall amounts though will likely
come from strong isentropic ascent. Temperatures during this
period should trend generally warmer than normal for this time of
year. /08

MARINE...Late in the weekend brings the next chance for increased
impacts as a wave of frontal low pressure lifts northeast over
the deep south. Onshore flow strengthens and seas build. Winds,
waves and seas locally higher in and near storms Sunday and
Sunday night. /10




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