Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301048
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
448 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SURGE SOUTHWARD...DEEP INTO THE GULF TODAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BRINGS A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS TO THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEAR TERM WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DROPPING OFF TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
BRISK CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. HIGH MOISTURE IN THE
HIGH LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO MAINTAIN SOME CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SUN TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST TODAY...IN
COMPARISON TO THURSDAY`S WEATHER. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE INTERIOR AS LOWS DIP TO
AROUND 30. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. /10

A GENERAL MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A DEEP LAYER DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOLDING AROUND O.25 IN...SO WE WILL KEEP POPS NIL.
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE MORNING SHOULD BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSING IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MEANWHILE
TRANSLATE FROM THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS DO SHOW A GRADUAL MOISTENING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST AL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. CLOUDY SKIES ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE
MID 40S TO NEAR 50 CLOSER TO THE COAST. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALSO CONTINUES TO MAKE AN EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT ALONG
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
A LIKELY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWFA. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SPREADING OVER
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -2 TO AROUND 2
C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS...SO WE
EXPECT A CHILLY DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO ONLY RANGE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAY FALL TO
AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DRY WEATHER IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO FINALLY LIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY BEFORE DAMPENING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW MOISTURE REACHING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN UPWARD TREND IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD WILL DETERMINE THURSDAY`S RAIN
CHANCES BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
30.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE...POTENTIALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH 18Z IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN ITS WAKE...MODERATE SEAS AND
CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS ON BAYS AND SOUNDS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A LIGHT RETURN FLOW.
SEAS TREND LOWER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...BRINGS A WIND SHIFT AND
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING THAT MAY RESULT IN THE
ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE MARKEDLY BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  33  59  45  64 /  00  00  00  10  60
PENSACOLA   60  37  59  49  65 /  00  00  00  10  60
DESTIN      59  41  59  50  64 /  00  00  00  05  60
EVERGREEN   59  30  60  39  62 /  00  00  00  10  60
WAYNESBORO  57  30  58  42  64 /  00  00  00  20  60
CAMDEN      57  29  58  39  61 /  00  00  00  10  60
CRESTVIEW   60  30  61  40  65 /  00  00  00  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$

10/21



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