Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 261140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
640 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites for the next
24 hours. Could see overnight patchy fog developing overnight but
expect it to form mainly inland from the coast at this time. /08


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...The main upper level ridge
axis has shifted south and currently extends west to east across the
northern portion of the Gulf. Westerly flow prevails and upstream a
broad area of upper level clouds are apparent on satellite being
driven eastward by a shortwave trough extending southward from
Arkansas into Eastern Texas. Cirrus cloud cover will spill in over
the area today creating periods of partly cloudy to mostly cloudy
skies. At the surface...high pressure building into the southeastern
states will create a southeasterly surface wind flow
today...increasing low level humidities. A stronger shortwave will
approach the region tonight but energy still projected to be sheared
north and south of the area. GFS continues to project the potential
for some light shower activity with this feature. Have kept slight
chc in the forecast closer to the coast and over the marine area but
it will be tough to overcome the deep layer of dry air overlying the
region. High temperatures today are expected to climb into the low
80s near the coast and low to mid 80s inland. Tonights lows should
only fall into the 60s near the coast and mid 50s to low 60s inland.

SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Thursday through Thursday
night, a shortwave moves from over the Plains to over the Southeast,
weakening and slowing as it goes. This energy brings a weakening
surface boundary to the area Thursday into Thursday night. The
chance of rain remains on the low (GFS) to non-existent (ECMWF) side,
with any upper support ahead of the surface boundary. Instability is
present, but limited. Have went with low end PoPs as a result and
pretty much left thunder out of the forecast for Thursday. Temps
remain above seasonal Thursday, and with no cooler air behind the
surface boundary, Thursday night. High Thursday in the low to mid
80s. Lows Thursday night ranging from mid 50s inland to low 60s
closer to the coast.

Friday through Friday night, building upper level high pressure over
the Southern PLains begins to nose east over the Lower Mississippi
river Valley, pushing the weakening upper energy well east of the fa.
With subsidence over the fa being re-enforced temps remain well
above seasonal, with highs Friday in the mid 80s inland to around 80
along the coast. Lows Friday night in the mid 50s inland to around 60
along the coast.


LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Shortwave energy moving east
over the US/Canadian border flattens the Plains upper ridge, then
shifts it east, rebuilding the ridge over the southern Atlantic
seaboard. Ultimately, a surface ridge rebuilds over northern portions
of the Southeast into the Tennessee River Valley. With upper level
high pressure in control, temps remain at well above seasonal levels
through the extended. Highs generally in the 80s, lows generally in
the mid 50s to lows 60s along the coast.


MARINE...High pressure ridging southward along the Eastern
Seaboard into the Northern Gulf will generate a light to moderate
windflow over the marine area through the remainder of the week.
Periods of cautionary conditions for small craft are expected over
the open Gulf waters through Friday.  /08




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