Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 171752 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


18Z issuance...Mostly VFR conditions through 18.18z. Could see a
brief period of MVFR cigs mainly this afternoon and early this
evening as a large area of low clouds mostly offshore moves west
and skirts the immediate coast through early this evening. Winds
will be mostly northeast 6 to 10 knots through the forecast
period. 32/ee


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

12Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected through the next 24
hours. Northeasterly winds around 10 knots will continue today,
and will be occasionally gusty at times. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A very dry airmass with
precipitable water values between 0.3" and 0.5" will remain in place
across our region through tonight, keeping skies mostly clear and
POPs zero. A surface ridge of high pressure will extend from south
Texas through the Tennessee Valley and Eastern Seaboard through
tonight, which will maintain a cool and dry northeasterly surface
flow across our region. Highs today are forecast to range in the mid
70s across most locations. Overnight lows should once again range
from the mid 40s to lower 50s across interior areas and in the mid
50s to around 60 near the immediate coast and the beaches. /21

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Surface and upper
ridging will remain over the area with a light northeast to east
flow at the surface. This will maintain a dry airmass with
temperatures moderating back to slightly above normal. /13

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...An upper ridge will amplify
over the area on Friday in response to a digging trough over the
western states. This will maintain dry conditions on Friday with
warmer temps. The ridge moves east on Saturday as the trough
moves into the plains. This will allow sfc flow to become
southerly and deep layer moisture to flow back into the region.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late in the period
as the trough and associated cold front move across the area. /13

MARINE...A moderate to strong northeasterly flow will persist over
the marine area early this morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions
will continue over the coastal waters, including the Mississippi
Sound and Lower Mobile Bay through around mid-morning, with exercise
caution conditions over the other bays and sounds. Winds should
decrease a bit late this morning into this afternoon, but will
remain elevated within exercise caution levels offshore. Moderate to
occasionally strong northeast to east flow will continue tonight
through Saturday as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in place
from the Mid-Atlantic region through the southeast states. Seas
remain elevated between 5-7 feet well offshore early this morning,
before subsiding to 4-6 feet late this morning into this afternoon.
Expect seas to remain elevated at least in the 3-5 feet range
offshore through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.




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