Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 271011
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT A
MIX OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH THE BEST CLEARING
OCCURRING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CLOUDS REFORM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. A MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT REBUILDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT DUE TO
TIGHTER TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENT REDEVELOPING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT LEANING A LITTLE HIGHER FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO
BETTER SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. 32/EE

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN AS RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A LARGE 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MEANWHILE EVOLVES TO A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON SUNDAY.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE
RESULTS IN A LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE SOMEWHAT...RESULTING IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY IN A DEEP 295-305K LAYER.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
NEAR 60 AND IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEN
MILDER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /29

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AN UPPER TROF STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL TO
THE NORTH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  FOR NOW EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG STORM POTENTIAL.  CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR FOR
THURSDAY AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.  HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 70S THEN NEAR 60 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND NEAR 60 OR IN THE
LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN TRENDING MUCH COOLER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 28.12Z. EXPECTED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO CLEAR SLOWLY TODAY REFORMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH
28.12Z 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MOVES
SLOWLY EAST. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL ADJUST UPWARD THE CURRENT WAVE FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BUILDS LATER IN THE WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      52  34  59  49  64 /  05  10  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   57  41  60  49  62 /  05  10  10  20  20
DESTIN      56  44  58  49  61 /  05  10  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   52  33  62  44  61 /  05  10  10  20  30
WAYNESBORO  49  30  59  46  62 /  05  10  10  20  40
CAMDEN      50  31  61  44  60 /  05  10  10  20  40
CRESTVIEW   58  37  61  46  61 /  05  10  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$





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